Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board since last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will
see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing
hopes or start to worry about a recession.

The NZD, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. Tomorrow, we have the RBNZ policy decision
where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and maintain
the hawkish stance.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD bounced from a strong support zone around the 0.6050 level last week and
extended the gains amid soft US data. Overall, we are still in a range and the
market participants keep on buying at support and selling at resistance. We
will likely need a breakout to see a more sustained trend.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price rejected the resistance at 0.6150 and it’s now falling to
the support around the 0.61 handle. That’s where we can expect the buyers to
step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a break above the
resistance with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the
0.6050 support next.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline
defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers might continue to lean on it
to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will want to see the price
breaking higher and above the most recent lower high at 0.6129 to regain some
control and start targeting new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be
focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report. Tomorrow,
we have the RBNZ policy decision. Thursday will be the most important day of
the week as we get the US CPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

This marks the highest reading since December last year, although the trend remains that it has been 30 consecutive months since the index has been above its long-term average of 98. With the US elections coming up in the months ahead, I wouldn’t anticipate too strong a bounce in sentiment given the relative uncertainty. That alongside some softness already evident in the jobs market.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Crude oil has been on an
incredible run since bottoming out around the $72.50 level in early June. The
market eventually caught up to the positive drivers we had back then with the OPEC+’s
extension of voluntary output cuts, and the pickup in economic activity seen
from the global PMIs. The prospects of
major central banks easing their policies was also a contributor for the
positive future demand outlook.

More recently, the price got
rejected from a key resistance level and eventually extended the drop following
a soft US
NFP report. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing.
We will see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft
landing hopes or start to worry about a recession.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil got rejected from the 84.50 resistance
and extended the drop following the soft US NFP report. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 80
support zone. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking below the 80 support to increase the bearish bets into the 77 level
next.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently dropped below the minor trendline that was defining the bullish
momentum. This technically signals a switch in momentum with the sellers in a
near-term control. We can also see that we have the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level of the entire rally from the lows standing around the key
support. That’s been a key level for the market.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more closely the recent price action. We have a nice resistance around the 82.70
level where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the drop
from the 84.50 level.

From a risk management
perspective, that’s where the sellers will likely step in with a defined risk above
the resistance and position for a drop into the key 80 support with a better
risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to regain some control and start targeting a break above the
84.50 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be
focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report.
Thursday will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and
the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with
the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

iFX EXPO Asia 2024 is heading back to
Thailand for 2+ days of B2B networking at the world’s leading online trading
event. Excitement is building for this year’s
iFX EXPO Asia 2024 as the leading online trading expo returns to the bustling
city of Bangkok for the third time.

iFX EXPO Asia 2024, the world’s premier
online trading B2B event, is heading back to Bangkok, bringing together 3,500+
industry leaders, experts, and professionals from 1,600+ companies around the world for 2+ days of networking,
knowledge sharing, and business opportunities.

Scheduled to take place between 16-18
September, 2024, at the prestigious Centara Grand & Bangkok Convention
Centre, this year’s expo promises to be one of the largest and most successful
events of its kind ever to be held in the Thai capital.

Known for its vibrant economy and thriving
fintech ecosystem, Thailand provides an ideal backdrop for this prominent
event, with the country’s
digital assets market projected to experience a revenue growth of 15.75% in
2025.*

Excitement is already starting to build
ahead of the showpiece exhibition, with the launch of the iFX EXPO Asia 2024 website officially kick
starting the countdown to day one.

The
place to do business

With the great and good from the world of
online trading set to converge on Bangkok, iFX EXPO Asia 2024 is the
must-attend event for brokers, IBs, PSPs, liquidity providers, tech companies,
and other fintech-related businesses.

Around 130+ exhibitors from 120+ countries
will be in attendance, as leading lights from the industry join together under
one roof to highlight their range of products and services to a truly diverse
and engaged audience.

It represents the ultimate online trading
hub where deals are made between key market players and like-minded
professionals. Having grown into a gold standard event garnering a strong
reputation within the industry, iFX EXPO Asia provides every individual with
the chance to network, exchange ideas, expand their business and explore
exciting new possibilities.

Stand
out from the crowd

As one of the major gatherings on the
calendar for 2024, iFX EXPO Asia is the prime destination where forex and
fintech companies showcase their products and services on a major scale.

Businesses can take full advantage of the
prestige associated with the event by becoming an official exhibitor. Through
booking a booth, companies are able to showcase their expertise and products,
increase brand recognition, and generate new leads. Previous exhibitors include
MetaQuotes, Solitics, cTrader, AdRoll, Deriv, ZuluTrade, to name but a few.

Meanwhile, there are also numerous
sponsorship opportunities available for those businesses looking to shine a
brighter spotlight on their brands. Last year, XS.com, OpixTech, Equiti
Capital, UEZ Markets, along with various other companies made full use of the
sponsorship benefits on offer at iFX EXPO Asia.

For interested parties who are looking to
stand out from the competition, please visit this link
for exhibitor and sponsorship enquiries.

Exclusive
access to unmatched content

The 2024 edition of iFX EXPO Asia is not
simply a networking hub, it also offers up a whole host of informative and
insightful content, with 13+ hours of speaker sessions and panel discussions
spread across two stages, Speaker Hall and Idea Hub, featuring a lineup of some
of the most influential experts and visionary thinkers from across the
industry.

Last year’s expo saw so many insightful
exchanges with key takeaways from every session. Popular
talks included: “The Asian Century: Tech Trends In Online Trading”, “The Art of
Gen Z: The Future of Brokerage” and “The Golden Hashtag: Affiliate Marketing in
Asia”.

With the speaker sessions set to return
bigger and better than before, the event organisers are on the lookout for
individuals keen to share their expertise, either as a speaker or as part of a
panel group. For more information, please click here.

Stay
tuned for more details

Keep up to date with all the latest
information about iFX EXPO Asia 2024 in the lead up to the event. Don’t forget
to check the iFX EXPO social media channels for exciting announcements as
Bangkok gears up for one of Asia’s most successful ever B2B online trading
expos. Visit the dedicated Facebook, Instagram
and LinkedIn pages for regular updates.

Secure your spot at iFX EXPO Asia 2024 by
registering here.

*FinTech – Thailand | Statista Market Forecast

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Light crude oil futures technical analysis and trade idea, for short

👋 Hello traders and investors! This is Itai Levitan from ForexLive.com, bringing you the latest technical analysis and trade ideas for Light Crude Oil Futures. Let’s dive into the current market setup and discuss potential strategies for your consideration.

Oil futures trend analysis 📈

We are observing an interesting pattern with Light Crude Oil. Recently, oil pierced a significant trend line, attempting a breakout but ultimately failing. This breakout attempt was aligned with the first upper standard deviation of the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) anchored from the beginning of 2023. Given this failed breakout, it appears that the bears might have an upper hand at the moment.

Market response at 84 USD TO 85 USD 📉

Following the failed breakout, we have seen an initial decline of over 1%. This movement is critical as it sets the stage for a potential entry point.

Trade idea – short oil 🎯

Entry point

• Entry: $82.40

This entry point is very close to the current market price and provides a strategic position based on the recent technical behavior.

Stop loss

• Primary stop: $84.00
• Tighter stop option, see video above: $83.70

The primary stop is set just above the $84.00 level to protect against further upward movements. Traders preferring a tighter stop can opt for $83.70, which is still above the upper standard deviation but offers a more favorable risk-reward ratio.

Take profit targets

• First target: $80.26
• Second target: $78.16
• Third target: $76.80
• Fourth target: $72.85

These targets are strategically placed. The first target allows for partial profit-taking, reducing risk exposure as the trade progresses. Subsequent targets provide opportunities to capture additional profits as the market moves in our favor.

Risk-reward analysis

• Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 4.5:1

By averaging out the take profit targets, we achieve a balanced and favorable risk-reward ratio. This setup allows for substantial profit potential while managing risk effectively.

Trade tips 📝

1. Monitor lower time frames if you still want to enter but saw this late: It’s essential to keep an eye on lower time frames to refine your entry point and ensure optimal timing.
2. Partial profits: Taking partial profits at different targets is a professional approach to secure gains and manage risk.
3. Adjust stop loss: After reaching the first profit target, consider moving your stop loss to the entry point to protect your position and minimize potential losses.

Remember, this analysis and trade idea is an orientation for you to consider. Always trade at your own risk and perform due diligence before entering any positions. Stay tuned to ForexLive.com for additional insights and perspectives. Happy trading!

Thank you for reading, and good luck! 🍀

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Need more certainty that inflation pressures have subsided sustainably
• Looking closely at labour market conditions and inflation indicators such as services inflation
• Recent wage data is consistent with the idea that „underlying“ unemployment rate has risen
• There are considerable second-round effects at play currently, will fade over the coming years

It’s good that his remarks are focusing on their goals and not sidetracked by the election. And it also speaks to which camp he is on I guess, since the June decision was supposedly „finely balanced“ even if the vote was 7-2.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2024 is on course to rank as the hottest year on record as climate change continues to push temperatures to record highs so far this year. They are pinning it as an approximately 95% probability that this year will beat the record set in 2023 last year.

If so, that will mean temperatures recorded globally this year will be the hottest since such records began in the mid-1800s.

C3S is out with the statement after last month ended up being the hottest June month on record.

Besides the obvious from climate change, El Nino hasn’t helped in relieving the world from the heat this year. The phenomenon is said to warm the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, leading to a rise in global average temperatures.

Global warming might not impact markets directly but as the above trend continues, it is worth taking notice. These sort of weather conditions do have an impact on certain commodities and in terms of demographics, it also impacts consumer behaviour to a certain extent.

It’s the simple things like:

• Should I go out (possibly spending more money) or should I stay in today?
• Should I invest in an air conditioner?
• Where should I go for a cooling and breezy holiday?
• The weather is so hot, maybe I should buy an iced tea to quench the thirst.. etc

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The next truly open meeting is in September
• We are comfortable with the progress in disinflation, market pricing on rate cuts

It isn’t anything that we don’t already know. Knot also adds that the date in which they must meet the inflation target must not slip beyond 2025. Well, we’ll see. I mean, they have a knack of kicking the can down the road.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US
NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an
increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically
have an economy that is slowing but growing. We will see if the market will be
able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing hopes or start to worry
about a recession. All eyes will now be on the US CPI and US Jobless Claims figures on Thursday.

The CAD, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment as
the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but didn’t
send recessionary signals. For the CAD, the next big event will be the CPI
report on July 16th. We saw another jump in wage growth in the
latest labour
market report, so the BoC will likely need good CPI figures to deliver a
rate cut in July.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD has recently dropped back to the bottom of the range at the key
1.36 support
zone where the price bounced off of last Friday.

The buyers will likely keep
on stepping in around these levels to position for a rally back into the 1.3785
resistance with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the
new lows with the 1.35 handle as the first target.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price action remains rangebound between the 1.36 support and the
1.3785 resistance. There’s not much to do here and the market participants will
likely keep on “playing the range” until we get a breakout.

USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke out of the recent downward minor trendline that was defining the bearish
momentum before bouncing from the support. This could be a signal of a change
in momentum.

The buyers will want to see
the price breaking above the most recent lower high at 1.3643 to increase the
bullish bets into the 1.3785 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This week is a bit bare on the data front but nonetheless we will have some key
economic releases. Tomorrow, we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress
and the markets will be focused on any view or hint about the monetary policy
trajectory after the recent NFP report. Thursday will be the most important day
of the week as we get the US CPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Monday: Japan
  Wage data.
• Tuesday: US
  NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Fed Chair Powell Testimony.
• Wednesday: Japan
  PPI, China CPI, RBNZ Policy Decision, Fed Chair Powell Testimony.
• Thursday: UK
  GDP, US CPI, US Jobless Claims.
• Friday: New
  Zealand Manufacturing PMI, US PPI, US University of Michigan Consumer
  Sentiment.

Tuesday

Fed Chair Powell will testify to the
Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee
on Wednesday. The market participants will be attentive to any view or hint
about the monetary policy trajectory after the recent NFP
report.

The text is generally released before
the testimony so that will be scanned for clues or “bias”,
but the market will also be focused on the Q&A session following the
opening remarks. Given the recent data, Powell will likely lean on the dovish
side.

Wednesday

The RBNZ is expected to keep interest
rates unchanged at 5.5%. As a reminder, the central bank delivered a hawkish
hold at the last
meeting as they raised the Official Cash
Rate forecasts and pushed back the first rate cut to late 2025. The market
continues to expect 41 bps of easing by the end of the year.

Thursday

The US CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.1% vs.
3.3% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.0% prior. The Core CPI
Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs. 3.4% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.2%
vs. 0.2% prior.

This is going to be an important release.
I think the Fed will be more dovish at the next meeting if we get a good
report. Then, if we get some more benign figures in August, Fed Chair Powell
will likely pre-commit to a rate cut in September at the Jackson Hole
Symposium.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier
indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims remain pretty much stable
around cycle lows and inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022. Continuing
Claims, on the other hand, have been on a sustained rise recently with the data
printing new cycle highs every week.

This shows that layoffs are not
accelerating and remain at low levels while hiring is more subdued. This is
something to keep an eye on. This week Initial
Claims are expected at 240K vs. 238K prior,
while Continuing Claims are seen at 1860K vs. 1858K prior.

Friday

The US PPI Y/Y is expected at 2.3% vs.
2.2% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.1% vs. -0.2% prior. The Core PPI
Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs. 2.3% prior, while the M/M figures is seen at 0.2%
vs. 0.0% prior. I don’t expect this data to influence the market much given
that the sentiment will be set by the CPI report the day before.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.