The troll farms are winning and can’t be stopped 0 (0)

„Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.“

That’s the first amendment and may prove to be what undoes liberal democracies. Worse yet, the Supreme Court has interpreted ‚free speech‘ extremely broadly, including the use of money as free speech.

It’s increasingly clear to me this is an extreme vulnerability that being exploited in the US and around the world.

On June 6 the State Department’s top official on digital and cyber
policy, Nate Fick, told an audience at an event hosted by the Washington Post:

“I don’t think most American
citizens really viscerally understand how much of the content they see
on social platforms is actually a foreign intelligence operation…. I
just don’t think we viscerally get how much of what we see is
bot-generated or foreign intelligence service–generated.”

I have little doubt that’s true and an increasing fear that much of what I see — and maybe even things I believe — has been hijacked by these groups.

Seeing the tools that are out there with AI and bots, I believe it’s almost trivial now to set up a bot farm. If I were an anti-American Russian doing it, I wouldn’t be writing „Mother Russia is great,“ the aim would be to sow division, to crank up the volume on any issue, to inspire American hate for other Americans.

Divide and conquer.

I also believe that Russia sees itself as a victim of this game, rightly or wrongly. They believe that the Euromaidan rallies in Ukraine — which were organized on social media — were a US influence operation.

On Friday, Reuters reported an incredible story. During the peak of the pandemic, the US was running an online operation to discredit the Chinese vaccine in the Philippines and ultimately vaccines in general, putting thousands of lives at risk and the Philippines had among the worst inoculations rates in Southeast Asia.

It was part of a petty fight after China started a “disinformation campaign to falsely blame the United States for the spread of COVID-19,“ according to the report.

If the US was willing to do that to the Philippines, what is it doing elsewhere?

Reuters reports:

Today, the military employs a sprawling ecosystem of social media
influencers, front groups and covertly placed digital advertisements to
influence overseas audiences, according to current and former military
officials…. in February, the contractor that worked on the anti-vax campaign –
General Dynamics IT – won a $493 million contract. Its mission: to
continue providing clandestine influence services for the military.

This has been going on for a long time. In 2013, Reddit revealed that Eglin Air Force Base in Tampa Bay (the home of the US’s propaganda wing) was it’s most-addicted city.

After Euromaiden, the Russians became determined to retaliate and that was why the Internet Research Agency — founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin — was at work in the 2016 US election. I suspect the Russians were amazed at how well it worked and so did the rest of the world. The aim isn’t to invent stories but to elevate conspiracies and make people angry.

Given the comments from the State Department, the US knows its a target. Heather Cox Richardson wrote about it earlier this week:

Officials from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence
(ODNI) told lawmakers that Russian influence operations aimed at
undermining support for Ukraine and faith in democratic institutions
provide the top threat to the upcoming U.S. election. China is the
second-greatest threat but is more cautious because it is concerned
about U.S. blowback, while the third, Iran, acts primarily as a “chaos
agent,” trying to confuse voters. The ODNI officials said they have been
issuing warnings to political candidates, government officials, and
others targeted by foreign groups.

That brings us back to free speech. These kinds of campaigns are going to prove nearly-impossible to stop. Democrats like it when false rumours are spread about Republicans and vice versa. Anyone trying to stop the rumours would be seen as partisan or disloyal. It’s a win-at-all costs mentality that puts party ahead of country.

AI is going to hyper-charge this. There will be individually-optimized campaigns based on your data that create videos and ads targeted at you personally to make you unhappy and enraged.

Yes, some bot farms will be shut down but 10 more will spring up. I don’t see any way to stop it. The first amendment is written in stone and social platforms are open, anonymous and for sale.

What can we do? Ban anonymity online? That would be extremely unpopular. Go to a censored, walled-off internet like China? That’s completely incompatible with the Constitution and freedom in general.

For markets, the destabilization will inevitably lead to conflict and division; none of which can be good for growth.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Unlocking Apple’s Stock Potential: Technical Signals to Watch 0 (0)

Apple broke higher this week on the back of the new AII news for the company (and its products announced ar the World Wide Developers Confeence.

Fundamentally, the hope is the new AI initiatives will stir a new round of product upgrades for its user base. That is something new vs what has been ho-hum improvements in the camera or other services.

Technically, the price broke out of an up-and-down trading range that has confined the stock between $165 and $200 since April 2023. Non-trending transitions to trending and if so, the trend has restarted with the breakout this week. That is very IMPORTANT..

What next?

Trends tend to be „fast, directional, and tend to go farther than what traders think“ (or expect). If so, the move this week is only the beginning.

If the goal is to stay on the trend, it is important to know when price action is not trending anymore. Technical tools will help to tell that story.

In this video, I discuss the breakout and more importantly outline where the trend is in jeopardy. As long as the describe technical levels are not breached, the buyers and trend remain intact. We all want to ride the trend.

Morevoer, if you want to be aggressive on a correction to „get in“ on the trend or add to your position, I will outline the low-risk levels on a correction, that would be a good level/area to buy the stock „on sale“.

In

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: European political turmoil on center stage 0 (0)

Markets:

  • Gold up $30 to $2331
  • WTI crude down 13-cents to $78.47
  • US 10-year yields down 2.3 bps to 4.21%
  • CHF leads, GBP lags
  • S&P 500 flat

The US dollar continued its climb early in the North American session with the euro and pound under particular pressure but those moves later reversed to finish final hours of the week flat. The Australian and Canadian dollar followed a similar path, recovering a portion of the losses that peaked at 10 am ET.

Some of the dollar selling came after a softer UMich sentiment survey, highlighting the vulnerabilities in the US economy, especially with the Fed in no rush to cut.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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The Nasdaq closes at a new record high for the 5th consecutive day 0 (0)

The NASDAQ index closed at a new record on Monday at 17192.53. It did the same on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and again today to extend the streak of consecutive high close levels to five trading days.

The S&P was on a similar move this week, but close marginally lower today snapping it 4-day record close string.

Overall, however, both the S&P and NASDAQ indices are closing higher for the week. The Dow industrial average did not fare as well as it fell today and is closing lower for the week.

The final numbers are showing:

  • Dow Industrial Average average -57.94 points or -0.15% at 38589.15
  • S&P index -2.14 points or -0.04% at 5431.61
  • NASDAQ index rose 21.32 points or 0.12% at 17688.88

for the trading week:

  • Dow industrial average fell -0.54%
  • S&P index rose 1.58%
  • NASDAQ index rose 3.24% which was its largest weekly gain since April 22.

The small-cap Russell 2000 did not fare as well today or this week. On the day, the index fell -32.75 points or -1.61% at 2006.15. For the trading week, the index fell -1.00%:.

Some big winners this week included:

  • Broadcom, +23.35%. The company announced earnings and also a 10:1 stock split
  • Adobe +12.87%. They announced their earnings which beat expectations and raised guidance as well
  • CrowdStrike: +10.45%. They too announced better-than-expected earnings
  • Shopify, +9.87%
  • Super Micro Computer, +9.81%
  • Nvidia, +9.09%
  • Micron, +7.96%
  • Apple, +7.925 on the back of Worldwide Developers Conference. Technically, the stock broke outside its $165 to $200 trading range that has confined the pair since April 2023
  • Lam Research, +7.61%
  • Home Depot +6.04%
  • Palo Alto networks, +5.10%

Some big losers included:

  • Celcius -17.87%
  • Trump Media, -17.2%
  • Raytheon, -17.17%
  • Paramount, -15.32%.
  • Beyond Meat, -12.52%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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Elections chase out EUR spec longs 0 (0)

It’s no surprise that euro longs are bailing with all the turmoil in France. We saw how much in the latest CFTC data, which covers futures up to Tuesday’s close.

Net spec longs fell to 44K contracts from 67K. I wouldn’t be surprised if more cashed out later this week due to the pain hitting French bonds.

The other notable moves in the IMM report were large jumps in AUD spec shorts and particularly in CAD spec shots which jumped to 129K from 92K.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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RBC expects another Bank of Canada rate cut in July 0 (0)

RBC says the decision for the Bank of Canada to cut rates as the country has underperformed global peers on a per-capital basis for more than a year. Theyalso say that’s why it’s easier to envision the BOC on a sharper path of easing than other G10 central banks.

They envision the Bank of England cutting in August but expect a slow pace after that, with only 100 bps by the end of 2025 and a similar pace from the ECB. They don’t see the Fed easing until December.

For the Bank of Canada, they envision a second 25 basis point cut in July, something I talked about yesterday on BNNBloomberg.

Market pricing currently reflects 55 basis points in further easing in Canada this year.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar holds firm as heavier risk flows weigh on markets 0 (0)

Headlines:

Markets:

  • CHF leads, NZD lags on the day
  • European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.4%
  • US 10-year yields down 3.5 bps to 4.205%
  • Gold up 1.2% to $2,331.17
  • WTI crude up 0.1% to $78.68
  • Bitcoin up 0.5% to $67,030

The session started with a focus on the Japanese yen, with markets taking to the more dovish decision by the BOJ to only pre-announce the tapering of their JGB purchases. The central bank said that they will only go into more detail on that in July, disappointing those expecting the decision to have come today instead.

USD/JPY was holding higher near 158.00, before extending gains to a high of 158.25 ahead of Ueda’s press conference. The pair lingered around 157.80-00 in the aftermath, before heavier risk flows weighed on market sentiment.

Equities sank while bond yields dropped as safety flows came into play and that dragged USD/JPY down to 157.00.

The dollar though, maintained a modest advance elsewhere with EUR/USD falling from 1.0720 to 1.0670. GBP/USD also fell from 1.2740 to 1.2695 before a mild bounce now to 1.2715 on the day.

The commodity currencies are the laggards as such, with AUD/USD down 0.2% to 0.6620 and NZD/USD down 0.5% to 0.6135 currently. The franc is the standout, with USD/CHF itself down 0.2% to 0.8920 on the day.

It looks like the unhealthy balance in the equities space is finally catching up to tech stocks. And that could spell for an ugly day to wrap up the week. In the bigger picture, this is very much a repeat of the runback from last month’s CPI report as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The risk-off sentiment boosts the greenback 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

The USD was sold across the
board on Wednesday following the soft US CPI report. The data made the market to price back
in two cuts for this year. Later in the day though we got a bit more hawkish
than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed that the Fed sees just one cut for this
year despite the soft US CPI report.

This gave the greenback a
boost although Fed Chair Powell backpedalled on the projections making them a
bit less worrying as the central bank remains very data dependent. Moreover,
the US Dollar found further support yesterday as the market went into risk-off
mode for unclear reasons.

The GBP, on the other hand,
got under pressure mainly because of the risk-off sentiment and the US Dollar
strength. If we go back into risk-on, we should see the greenback losing ground
against the Pound again.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD spiked above the 1.28 handle following the soft US CPI release
but eventually gave back everything following the more hawkish than expected
FOMC decision and the risk-off sentiment.

The price is now trading around
a key support
zone at the 1.27 handle. A breakdown should open the door for new lows with the
first target coming around the 1.26 handle.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire rally since
April standing around the 1.2634 level which is going to be the first target
for the sellers in case the price breaks decisively below the 1.27 support zone.

The buyers, on the other
hand, will likely step in here at the 1.27 support zone with a defined risk
below it to position for a rally into new highs.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is near the lower level of the average daily range. This is where we might see a
bounce as the price generally doesn’t extend beyond the level without a strong catalyst.

In case we get a pullback,
the sellers will likely lean on the minor downward trendline
and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2740. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to gain even more confidence
and increase the bullish bets into new highs.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey where the data is expected to show an increase to 72.0 vs. 69.1 prior.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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ECB’s Centeno: Disinflation process to resume after August 0 (0)

  • Some recovery in real wages is inevitable
  • We should continue to be data-dependent

Despite the headline remark, he isn’t as confident to suggest when exactly the ECB can resume cutting rates. For now, July is definitely out of the question. But they’re not pre-committing to a September move for the time being at least.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis – The pair broke through a key support 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

The USD was sold across the
board on Wednesday following the soft US CPI report. The data made the market to price back
in two cuts for this year. Later in the day though we got a bit more hawkish
than expected FOMC decision where the dot plot showed that the Fed sees just one cut for this
year despite the soft US CPI report.

This gave the greenback a
boost although Fed Chair Powell backpedalled on the projections making them a
bit less worrying as the central bank remains very data dependent. Moreover,
the US Dollar found further support yesterday as the market went into risk-off
mode for unclear reasons.

The EUR, on the other hand,
got hit hard by the European elections as the political uncertainty weighed
on the sentiment and led to some increase in bonds risk premia and selloff in
European stocks.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD broke through the key 1.0727 support
zone today and increased the bearish momentum as the sellers piled in more
aggressively. The target should be around the 1.06 handle. A break below the
1.06 handle would open the door for a drop into the key 1.05 level which is
basically the bottom of the range since late 2022.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the break of the support where we had also the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement
level for confluence.
From a risk management perspective, late sellers might want to wait for a
pullback into the 1.08 support-turned-resistance
to position for a continuation of the downtrend into the 1.06 handle with a
better risk to reward setup.

The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price rally back above the 1.08 resistance to gain
more control and start targeting the 1.09 level next.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the pair is near the lower level of the average
daily range
. That’s where we might see a bounce as the price generally
doesn’t extend beyond the levels without a strong catalyst.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey where the data is expected to show an increase to 72.0 vs. 69.1 prior.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive