The point on June to August being no slowdown in price pressures is in other words a mask that they will stay on hold until September at the earliest. Once again, this effectively rules out a move in July.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
They have been out en masse today in justifying and reasoning their decision to cut rates yesterday. But overall, there isn’t anything new to add to the picture. A July rate cut can be safely ruled out but one in September is still potentially on the table.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The Nasdaq this week rallied
strongly following the beat in the US ISM Services PMI where the data showed that the last
month drop was just a blip and overall we have a resilient economy with lower
inflationary pressures. The data continues to reinforce the narrative that the
next move is more likely to be a rate cut, and that inflation is likely to keep
coming back to target. This should keep the market supported amid a positive
risk sentiment.
The main risk today could
come from the US NFP report where bad data across the board could weigh on
sentiment and push the market lower. Overall, the buyers won’t want to see hot
wage growth and a big jump in the unemployment rate as both the outcomes should
be bearish for the market.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq rallied to a new all-time high recently following the
strong US data. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much
better risk to reward setup around the 18255 level where we can find the confluence
of the recent swing low and the trendline.
As things stand though, it’s unlikely to see such a big drop without ugly
labour market numbers or a surprising hot inflation report.
Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently surged to a new all-time high and consolidated
right around the previous all-time high level. This is where the buyers are
stepping in with a defined risk below the level to position for a continuation of
the trend. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to gain some control and target the 18255 level.
Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a resistance
now at 19108 and a trendline acting as support around the 19000 level. The red
lines define the average
daily range for today, although the price can extend beyond these levels
when there are strong catalysts like today’s NFP report.
The buyers will want to see
the price breaking higher to increase the bearish bets into new highs. Alternatively,
they can lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and target
the 18700 level.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the consensus sees
185K jobs added in May and the unemployment rate remining unchanged at 3.9%.
Moreover, the average hourly earnings are seen at 3.9% for the Y/Y figure and
0.3% for the M/M measure.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
I would also point out that the selloff could have been exacerbated by algos and the price is now near the lower bound of the average daily range. Generally, the price doesn’t extend much beyond these levels unless there’s a very strong catalyst. Therefore, this might be a good opportunity for dip-buyers to fade the reaction.
In the bigger picture, gold is inversely correlated with real yields as it „competes“ with bonds. The opportunity cost of holding gold rises when real yields rise and falls when real yields fall. Therefore, the inverse relationship. You can see it in the chart below.
In the past two years people pointed out to the decoupling of the correlation, but they never really decoupled. It’s the magnitude that changed. In fact, when real yields have been rising, gold has been falling much less, and when real yields have been falling, gold has been rising much faster.
I’ve never really bought the narrative that gold has been rising due to China. If you look at the chart below which shows China’s gold reserves vs. gold, you will notice that gold has been rising in the past without China buying, and has been falling with China buying a lot. The main reason for the change in the magnitude might be related to the US fiscal profligacy.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
After much anticipation, registration is now live for Finance Magnates Pacific Summit 2024 (FMPS:24), the year’s largest professional event in the Asia-Pacific region. The premium event looks to bridge the B2B and B2C space, taking place in Sydney, Australia on August 27-29. Prospective attendees can expect to meet, network, and engage with the industry’s leading talent and brokers, while connecting with regional and local providers.
FMPS:24 is all about expanding one’s global reach or footprint through unique networking opportunities. Nowhere else in APAC will attendees have the chance to speak to so many different parties, speakers, and talent, all under one roof. This is one event you cannot afford to miss this August!
Register Today for FMPS:24
FMPS will be held at the world-famous International Convention Centre (ICC) in downtown Sydney. ICC Sydney is not only one of Australia’s leading venues but a locale renowned for its conventions, exhibitions, and entertainment. As one of the world’s greatest business event centers, ICC promises to be the perfect setting for FMPS:24, conveniently located next to the premium waterfront location at Darling Harbour.
Attendees can expect to take a deep dive into multiple verticals represented at length, such as the online trading, payments, digital assets, and fintech space. With only a few months to go until the doors of this event swing open, the time to reserve your seat is now and can be done by accessing the following link.
What Can Attendees Expect from FMPS:24?
FMPS:24 is APAC’s can’t miss event of 2024 that starts with professionalism and includes a diverse range of individuals available for doing business with. Attendees can expect to network, engage, and connect face-to-face with the following participants:
In terms of content, FMPS:24 will take a explore the latest topics and trends with actionable insights, engaging conversation, and an eye on the future. This includes an entire content slate of discussions, webinars, workshops, keynote speeches, and much more.
These informative sessions provide the ideal forum and platform for traders and industry professionals to learn and gain valuable perspective into new trading techniques, technologies, and trends in Australia, APAC, and the broader financial services space.
Look for the event to attract upwards of 2,000+ attendees, 70+ exhibitors, and 50+ speakers, making FMPS:24 one of the largest events in Australia in 2024. Stay tuned over the next month for more updates on FMPS:24, including the rollout of the detailed agenda, and more!
This article was written by Jeff Patterson at www.forexlive.com.
US-based employers announced 63,816 job cuts in May this year, which is a roughly 20% decline compared to the same month a year ago. The number of layoffs is little changed compared to April, but this still represents the third-highest January-to-May total since 2009. Looking at the details, tech continues to lead job cuts overall but is significantly lower (60%) compared to the same period last year.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
KNOWLEDGE
The first
mistake is to jump into the markets without enough knowledge. That’s like
gambling and if you don’t know what you are doing and why, then you won’t
survive for long. Just look at how many retail traders jumped into the markets
during the covid pandemic and eventually lost all the gains. There are
stories of lucky people changing their lives yeah, but they are very rare, and
the chances are the same as winning the lottery.
EDUCATION
The second
mistake is getting the wrong education from social media influencers whose
goals are just to sell courses and signals. You have to be careful when you
invest in education because “an investment in knowledge pays the best interest”
but an investment in the wrong education can be deadly.
CAPITAL
Once you
have some knowledge, you need capital. The rule of thumb is to trade only the
money you can afford to lose. DO NOT trade money you need to pay bills or to
live off of in general. If you do that, you will already set yourself up for
failure because the psychological pressure will be so high that you will easily
make all kind of emotional mistakes, from fearing of missing out to revenge
trading.
EXPERIENCE
Even if you
get the knowledge, skills and capital, the last thing you need to get is
experience. Real life experience can’t be taught, it’s something you acquire
through practice and mistakes. It’s the best teacher for anything in life. Yes,
you can learn from other people’s mistakes, but nothing can substitute your
own.
In fact,
many successful traders study the past experiences to better forecast the
future. A famous saying by Mark Twain goes like “history doesn’t repeat itself,
but it often rhymes” and that happens in the financial markets as well. The
business cycle repeats many times and the market most of the time follows the
same pattern of booms and busts.
UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
The last
mistake is setting unrealistic expectations. Beginner traders think that they
can become rich quickly with trading.
Unfortunately, this is a lie that comes from social media influencers
and marketers who need to sell a dream to make money.
Just to put
things in perspective, the best traders/investors in history average around 30%
yearly returns in the long run. This includes traders like Druckenmiller and
Soros who once bet 200% of their fund on one single trade.
On the
other hand, we have social media influencers talking about things like 1% per
day or 10% per month consistently. You can see the huge discrepancy here. In
general, if you can consistently beat the S&P 500 returns over the long run,
then you are good.
FINAL WORDS
You should
approach trading/investing as a skill that will help you grow your wealth over
time, not something that will make you a millionaire overnight. It’s not a way
out of poverty or way out of your job.
Fall in
love with the process, learn every day, give yourself time to understand things,
don’t rush and enjoy the ride. Trading can teach you a lot of stuff, from
geography to history, from politics to economics. All of this will make you a
better person both in the markets and in your life.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
The technical look for the pair is no different from where we were here yesterday. The drop earlier in the week brings into focus key technical support near the 200-day moving average (blue line). And that is still where we are now ahead of the ECB and more US data later in the day.
The pair moved down on Tuesday to test the 200-day moving average, alongside the 61.8 Fib retracement level at 0.8883. That saw the drop get arrested, before a minor bounce yesterday. The bounce itself then stalled at the 100-day moving average (red line), which allowed sellers to push price back lower today.
It’s now a battle in between these two levels in identifying what will come next for USD/CHF.
Break below the key support region highlighted, and there is much room to run to the downside. On the flip side, break back above the 100-day moving average, and that is an opportunity for buyers to wrestle back some control after the break under 0.9000.
The potential trigger events today are the ECB and the US weekly jobless claims later today. If that doesn’t move the needle in USD/CHF, it will be over to the US jobs report tomorrow to settle the score.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
That’s another soft reading as the recent rebound in mortgage activity has all but faded now. The latest drop in the market index brings it to the lowest since the end of February.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.