Here the latest odds on betting sites for the Presidential election:

• PredictIt – tied
• Kalshi 55% Trump, 45% Harris (from as wide as 65-35)
• Polymarket 59% Trump, 41% Harris
• Betting sites around 58 Trump, 42% Harris

Now there should be some kind of arb there but I don’t think it’s wise, and definitely don’t do what this French guy who has put $30 million on Trump at Kalshi.

„Théo said he took an interest in U.S. polling data earlier this year. He observed that many polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, and concluded that if Trump outperformed again this year, he would beat Harris. Théo also cited the „shy Trump voter effect“—the idea that people were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported Trump.

„I know a lot of Americans who would vote for Trump without telling you that,“ Théo said. Asked about changes that pollsters had made in their methodologies in an attempt to fix the problems of 2016 and 2020, Théo was dismissive, saying he had „not seen anything substantial.“

Théo sent dozens of emails to the Journal reporter over a two-week period. In many of them, he criticized polls from mainstream-media outlets that he saw as skewed in favor of Harris. On the Zoom call, he alleged that Democrat-aligned media organizations were laying the groundwork for social unrest by stoking expectations of a close race, instead of the Trump blowout that he anticipates.“

In any case, here are three reasons that betting odds have improved for Harris:

1) No one trusts polls

Like the above, many believe that Trump is being underestimated like he was in the past two elections. However Nate Silver makes a good argument here that the pendulum may have swung in the other direction.

„It’s hard to overstate how traumatic the 2016 and 2020 elections were for many pollsters. For some, another underestimate of Mr. Trump could be a major threat to their business and their livelihood. For the rest, their status and reputations are on the line. If they underestimate Mr. Trump a third straight time, how can their polls be trusted again? It is much safer, whether in terms of literal self-interest or purely psychologically, to find a close race than to gamble on a clear Harris victory.

At the same time, the 2016 and 2020 polling misfires shattered many pollsters‘ confidence in their own methods and data. When their results come in very blue, they don’t believe it. And frankly, I share that same feeling: If our final Pennsylvania poll comes in at Harris +7, why would I believe it? As a result, pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.“

In addition, Silver made a compelling argument that the amount of clustering in polls in swing states is statistically impossible.

The takeaway here for any reasonable person is that nothing can be trusted until the votes are counted.

2) The early vote for women

The gender of early voters is only reported in Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia but aggregated it looks like this.

Polls consistently show Harris far ahead of Trump among women.

In Michigan alone it’s 55%-45% for women. Now typically, it finishes in the 53-47%. That two percentage point swing — if it holds up through in-person voting, would tilt the balance. Now from what I’ve seen, females outnumbering men in mail-in voting isn’t unusual but the history of US mail-in voting is very short.

About half of Americans will vote by mail this year.

3) Voter enthusiasm

This chart from Gallup got some attention, as it shows Democrats more enthusiastic to vote for Harris than the were for Biden or even Obama.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• US October non-farm payrolls +12K vs +113K expected
• Comment from BLS on the US Hurricanes
• US ISM October manufacturing PMI 46.5 vs 47.6 expected
• S&P Global October Canada manufacturing PM 51.1 vs 50.4 prior
• Baker Hughes Oil rigs 479 down -1 on the week
• US construction spending for September 0.1% versus 0.0% expected
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 growth comes in at 2.3% vs 2.7% last
• Geopolitics: US truce efforts on Lebanon fail ahead of the election
• US S&P Global final October manufacturing PMI 48.5 vs 47.8 prelim
• China loosens rules for foreign investors in equities
• November financial market seasonals: Japanese FX officials won’t want to read this

Markets:

• Gold down $10 to $2734
• US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 4.38%
• WTI crude oil up 20-cents to $69.46
• S&P 500 up 0.4%
• GBP leads, CHF lags

The crosscurrents in markets continued on Friday as we count down to the US election. It’s tough to separate moves based on economic data from election de-risking and election positioning. The tension is undoubtedly ramping up and betting odds shifted back towards Harris more-recently, adding a wrinkle.

The main event of the day was non-farm payrolls and the reading was just +12, far short of +113K expected and the US dollar immediately fell hard, 40 to 90 pips, with USD/JPY hit particularly hard. However all those US dollar declines were eventually erased.

Part of that was because the market wasn’t convinced that the jobs market is deteriorating, despite at -112K two-month net revision. The other factor was another rapid rise in Treasury yields, from a low of 4.22% post-data to 4.38% and a close on the highs. That move also helped to sap risk and weighed on commodity currencies and the euro.

It’s not entirely clear what’s driving the bond move but the pain in UK bond markets following the UK budget is topical, especially in scenarios where one party sweeps congress. But it could also be as simple as uncertainty and de-risking around a wide possible range of election outcomes. Finally, the prices paid component of the ISM manufacturing survey was hot, which may have ignited some inflation fears (though I find that a stretch).

Have a great weekend. Rest up because next week could be crazy.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes for the day:

• S&P 500 +0.4%
• Nasdaq Comp +0.8%
• Russell 2000 +0.6%
• DJIA +0.7%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.4%

On the week:

• S&P 500 -1.4%
• Nasdaq Comp-1.5%
• Russell 2000 flat
• DJIA -0.2%
• Toronto TSX Comp -0.8%

That’s two weeks of declines following a six-week rally.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There was a popular theory among central bankers coming out of the post-covid inflation shock: That the world had changed.

The overwhelming line of thought is that we would never get back to ZIRP or negative interest rates and that the neutral rate was higher. I’ve yet to hear a compelling reason for why that is, particularly in a world that’s about to be disrupted by AI.

Yes, there’s the deglobalization talk but that’s vastly overstated and I don’t find any demographic arguments compelling. In July, I argued that it was time to buy bonds because of all this and they then embarked on a major rally. Now most of that has come undone on fiscal worries ahead of the election but everything since then has highlighted falling inflation.

Some of the strongest evidence this week came from Switzerland, where year-over-year inflation fell to +0.60%. Back in September, the SNB slashed its inflation forecast for 2025 to 0.6% from 1.1% as it cut rates. This year’s inflation was also trimmed to 1.2% from 1.3%.

In light of today’s data, that’s looking far too high. The next meeting is December 12 so much can change (particularly energy prices and FX) but rates are at 1.00% and a 50 basis cut is on the table and I’d argue it’s advisable. Market pricing is still only 28% but by March, pricing is down to +0.30%.

Deutsche Bank argues that the the
odds of negative rates are rising again. They also highlight scenarios where we get trade frictions and I can see risk off scenarios where the franc rises materially.

It’s also not just Switzerland as Europe is struggling more broadly and DB argues that inflation isn’t a problem.

„Despite this week’s small upside inflation
surprise in the Eurozone, it is hard to see broader Euro-area inflation forces
as anything but disinflationary given the very soft inflation numbers coming in
throughout the smaller European economies recently (Sweden, Norway, and today
Switzerland).“

The one place with still-strong growth is the USA but if we end up with some fiscal tightening coming out of the election, then it could also see lower inflation. At some point, growth will also hit a bump and given what we’re seeing globally, we could easily be tipped back into a world of very low, or negative rates again.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Canadian dollar is in a tough spot.

The US dollar rose 15 pips against the loonie today to 1.3950, which is the first time at that level since 2022.

The next level to watch is 1.3978, as a rise above that level would be the highest since the pandemic. And other than a brief spike in the pandemic, and a spike in the 2016 oil collapse, USD/CAD hasn’t been sustained at these levels since 2003.

The problem for the loonie is that Canada’s economy is struggling and the long-term picture is worsening. The housing market is impaired and new home sales are slowing due to high interest rates. Even if the Bank of Canada cuts, longer-term fixed rates (5 years are standard in Canada) have been rising. With that, we’re probably already at the bottom for standard Canadian mortgages and there is no sign of rising demand.

Another driver for Canada has been population growth, as this chart highlights.

That’s about to go into reverse as Canada’s governing Liberals have pledged a declining population in 2025 and 2026. Now some people are certainly skeptical about that but in every scenario, the pace of entries into the country materially declines and rising anti-immigration sentiment likely keeps it that way through the decade.

Some hope for the loonie comes from China stimulus and natural resources prices but those risks run both ways.

In the shorter-term, the risk trade dictates what happens next with the loonie. Right now the market is obviously on edge about the US election. Not many trades around it are clear but Harris is certainly better for Canada that Trump. She lived for many years in Montreal and wouldn’t be looking to renegotiate NAFTA or impose tariffs.

That said, there are certainly scenarios with a divided Congress and broad equity market selling that hurt the market mood and lead to loonie weakness.

There is a good argument to be patient in any election scenario and wait for the technicals to unfold as a break of 1.4000 would target 1.4500.

I talked about these themes in detail with BNNBloomberg earlier in the week.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have failed, partly due to a „unrealistic“ U.S. proposal and Israel’s insistence on enforcing a truce directly.
• With no viable proposal ahead of the U.S. presidential election, sources close to Hezbollah and diplomats fear the conflict may persist for months.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declined to comment on the situation.
• U.S. officials reported recent discussions with Israeli counterparts as „substantive“ and „constructive,“ though they stressed that details would not be negotiated publicly.
• Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted progress towards ceasefire understandings between Israel and Lebanon but acknowledged more work remains.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Markets trade cautiously into the US NFP report
• UK October final manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 50.3 prelim
• Japan opposition party chief: BoJ should not raise interest rates for at least half a year
• Switzerland October manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 49.8 expected
• Israel at ‚high level of readiness‘ for Iranian attack – report
• Swiss October retail sales 2.2% vs. 2.5% y/y expected
• Switzerland October CPI +0.6% vs +0.8% y/y expected
• UK October Nationwide house prices +0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
• BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report: Rise in minimum wage could push up services prices
• What are the main events for today?

Markets:

• GBP leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities higher;
  S&P 500 futures up 0.39%
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.289%
• Gold
  up 0.30% to $2,752
• WTI
  crude up 2.12% to $70.73
• Bitcoin
  down 0.19% to $70,088

It’s been a rather slow session in terms of data releases. The main highlight was the Switzerland CPI report which missed expectations by a big margin and will likely lead the SNB to cut by 50 bps in December.

In FX, we had some mixed moves. The US Dollar is up a bit against the commodity currencies but down against the GBP. In fact, the GBP has been recovering some ground from yesterday’s selloff, although we haven’t got any catalyst for today’s bounce.

In the equities space, the risk sentiment is tentatively positive with US and European markets up on the day. Overall, there’s been a rangebound price action in the last couple of weeks as we await the US election on Tuesday.

The bond markets are basically flat on the day. The biggest movers have been the UK’s bonds after the budget announcement but it looks like they stabilised.

The focus will now switch to the US data in the American session as we get the NFP and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. As a reminder, this is going to
be a tricky report given the distortions from hurricanes and strikes in
October. Thankfully, the market and the Fed are unlikely to care that much given the distortions and the focus
on the US election on Tuesday.

Therefore, I
expect a weak report to be „forgiven“, while a strong one would just
confirm that the labour market is still doing good and add to the
expectations that the Fed might be forced to pause its easing cycle
earlier than expected in 2025.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Overall, it wouldn’t have been a pretty slow session if it wasn’t for the Swiss Franc selloff following the big miss in the Swiss CPI report. The market should now start to look for a 50 bps cut from the SNB in December as inflation is much lower than their latest forecasts which saw the CPI ending the year at 1.2%.

The US Dollar is mixed on the day with small gains against the commodity currencies.The British Pound is showing some life after yesterday’s selloff although there’s wasn’t any catalyst for the bounce.

The focus remains on the US elections as real money will likely want to wait for the result. Today’s NFP report is not going to change much for the market. Weak data will likely be faded due to expected distortions, while a strong reading should reaffirm the market’s view that the Fed might pause earlier than expected in 2025.

I still see the Fed cutting by 25 bps in November and December, although the Fed might deliver a hawkish cut in December if we get Trump.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Flipster, a global crypto derivatives exchange, has
announced a collaboration with BNB Chain, a community-driven blockchain
ecosystem, to offer fee-free withdrawals, aiming to democratize access to
cryptocurrency trading.

This collaboration builds on Flipster’s existing zero-fee
trading model, aligning with both Flipster and BNB Chain’s shared mission to
make cryptocurrency trading more user-friendly and cost-effective. By backing
BNB Chain’s gas-free withdrawals initiative, Flipster users will be able to
transact with ease and capitalize on market movements effectively while
avoiding hidden fees and slippage.

CEO of Flipster, commented, “We’ve always been focused on
building an inclusive and user-centric environment to enhance the trading
experience for our users. Collaborating with BNB Chain on fee-free withdrawals
is a natural step toward advancing our shared vision of opening up crypto
trading to the masses. We are committed to fostering a thriving ecosystem where
digital assets are easily accessible to everyone.“

Beyond bridging the gap between traditional finance and
crypto, Flipster aims to explore further synergistic initiatives that
accelerate crypto adoption. This includes fostering connections within the
ecosystem, providing seamless entry into the market, and enhancing the overall
trading experience, to encourage greater participation in the ecosystem.

Gala Wen, Director of Ecosystem Development at BNB Chain,
added „Collaborating with Flipster to provide gas-free withdrawals is a
key part of our ongoing efforts to lower barriers to entry in the crypto
market. By removing withdrawal fees, we empower more users to engage with
digital assets and expand access to cryptocurrency, aligning with BNB Chain’s
mission to onboard the next billion users into Web3. We look forward to
exploring further initiatives with Flipster to enhance user empowerment.”

Flipster’s platform is designed for rapid trade execution,
deep liquidity, and zero trading fees. With the integration of BNB Chain’s
fee-free withdrawals, users can withdraw stablecoins without incurring
additional costs until the end of the month.

Processing over $10 billion in monthly trading volume and
serving over a million users, more than 98% of asset deposits and withdrawals
on Flipster are stablecoins, making the zero-fee withdrawal offering on BNB
Chain even more valuable for users looking to maximize their returns.

For more information about the campaign, please refer to
Flipster’s blog.

About BNB Chain

BNB Chain is a community-driven blockchain ecosystem that is
removing barriers to Web3 adoption. It is composed of:

·
BNB Smart Chain (BSC): A secure DeFi hub with
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·
opBNB: A scalability L2 that delivers the lowest
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·
BNB Greenfield: Meets decentralized storage
needs for the ecosystem and lets users establish their own data marketplaces.

Setting a high bar for security, the AvengerDAO community
protects BNB Chain users while Red Alarm provides a real-time risk-scanner for
Dapps. The ecosystem also offers a range of monetary and ecosystem rewards as
part of its Builder Support Program.

About Flipster

Flipster (https://tinyurl.com/) is a crypto derivatives
exchange known for its lightning-fast perpetual futures listings, zero trading
fees, high liquidity, and rapid trade executions. The easy-to-use platform
provides users with an all-in-one trading experience with leverage of up to 100x
on over 250 tokens, supporting traders globally in capitalizing on market
opportunities. For media enquiries or interview requests with the team, please
reach out to pr@flipster.io.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.