Nothing new there from de Cos. This just reaffirms the current ECB outlook and the data today does not change that. EUR/USD is sitting marginally higher on the day at 1.0728 currently.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
This via the latest release from the Japanese Ministry of Finance:
At the same time though, the BOJ accounts look to be suggesting that Japan spent roughly ¥5.55 trillion on intervention on Monday. We’ll have to see how that figure matches up when the MOF releases the data next month. That provided there is no more need for authorities to step in until the last week of May.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Markets:
It is all about the yen to start the new week, as Japan finally intervened to hammer down JPY pairs. It came roughly at 1pm Tokyo time with USD/JPY taking a tumble from 159.60 to 158.00 initially. The move then gathered pace in a drop to 157.20 before subsequently dropping all the way down to 155.05.
That invited volatile swings in the currency with USD/JPY itself running back up to 157.00 before being hammered down again to 154.50 on the day. The drop was a brief one though as the pair then settled around 155.70-90 levels mostly before running back up to 156.20 at the moment. USD/JPY itself is still down 1.3% on the day with the dollar being the laggard and is now down near 400 pips from the highs in Asia.
Other major currencies were seen higher against the dollar, pushing back after the greenback failed to impress following the US Q1 GDP and PCE price data last week. GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.2530, USD/CAD down 0.2% to 1.3645, and AUD/USD up 0.5% to 0.6560. The latter is keeping up a solid bounce over the last week, culminating in a test of its 100-day moving average at 0.6584 earlier.
In other markets, stocks are also keeping steadier for the most part. European indices are sitting more mixed though, consolidating after recouping some losses last week. Spanish stocks are lagging after PM Sanchez said that he won’t be stepping down. Meanwhile, US futures are sitting a little higher with month-end set to come into focus as well.
In the bond market, yields are down across the board with traders eyeing the Fed later this week. 10-year yields in the US are down near 5 bps to 4.62% but it keeps in the realms of what we saw since last week.
For the time being, all eyes will be on the yen. Now with US traders coming in and liquidity conditions picking up, will Japan be bold enough to quell any further dip buying on the day?
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
After coming off the boil in trading last week, gold is in a bit more of a consolidative mood now. Buyers are able to hold price above $2,300 and in search of a third straight day of gains. Still, this is only a bit part recovery from the drop from above $2,400 on 19 April. We’re seeing gold trade around $2,340 today but what is the chart saying?
At current levels, gold is seeing price trade in between the 100 (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages. That suggests the near-term bias is more neutral with traders looking like they are respecting the above technical boundaries.
The dollar itself is also in a state of flux as it did little to impress after the US Q1 GDP and PCE price data last week. So, the greenback is not really pushing much higher after the early gains in April. And for gold, the easing of geopolitical tensions is one factor contributing to the pullback last week. But also as buyers are seen cooling off, following a surging round of gains since March. I mean, in April itself gold is still up by nearly 5% so that says a lot.
But for now, we are seeing traders duke it out in the near-term. Break below the 100-hour moving average and sellers will regain control. However, they will need to firstly look for a stronger push under the $2,300 mark. A daily close below that will be much needed to reaffirm any further downside, at least in the short-term.
As for buyers, break above the 200-hour moving average and the near-term bias will shift to being more bullish again. And that could invite a retest of the $2,400 mark once more.
For trading this week, the key catalyst will be the upcoming FOMC meeting. It’s all about the Fed outlook and while this should be more or less a placeholder meeting, traders will scrutinise Powell’s words for any clues to work with.
As things stand, Fed funds futures are pricing in ~34% odds of a July move and ~78% odds of a September move. The total rate cuts priced in for the year is roughly 36 bps. How that changes will be the main driver for gold price action this week. All that before we get to the US jobs report on Friday.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite reached a key resistance zone
around the 15929 level where we can also find the confluence of the
50% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. This is
where the sellers will likely step in with a defined risk above the moving
average to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and
increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8
moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the
moving average or some consolidation before the next move. In this case, it
would also fit with the bearish setup as we might see at least a rejection from
the resistance zone.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price action into the resistance level might have formed a bearish flag, but
we will need to see the price breaking the bottom trendline to confirm it. In
case of a breakout to the downside, the measured target would stand around the
14700 level.
Upcoming
Events
Tomorrow, we have the US Q1 Employment Cost Index and
the Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP, the ISM
Manufacturing PMI, the Job Openings and the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we
will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week
with the US NFP and ISM Services PMI.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
As for the entirety of the year, Citi sees the Fed delivering 100 bps worth of rate cuts in total. For some context, Fed funds futures are showing the odds of a July rate cut to be at ~34% currently. And only ~36 bps worth of rate cuts priced in for 2024.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Given the size and nature of the move, it’s tough to think of anything or anyone else that could have moved price action in such a manner. USD/JPY is still keeping around 155.90 for the time being, down 1.5% on the day and down from around 159.60 before the BOJ/MOF stepped in. We’ll only get verbal confirmation from Japanese officials themselves after they release the FX data next month here.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Tuesday
The Chinese Manufacturing PMI is expected
to tick lower to 50.3 vs. 50.8 prior,
while the Services PMI is expected at 52.2 vs. 53.0 prior. The Chinese PMIs
have been very volatile in the past few years making it hard to gauge the state
of the economy. Nonetheless, they picked up well recently improving
the risk sentiment around the Chinese economy. As long as they are not too
bad, we can expect the market to be positive about it, especially with the
promised policy support from the officials.
The Eurozone CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.4%
vs. 2.4% prior,
while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.6% vs. 2.9% prior. The ECB has already
telegraphed a rate cut in June and it will likely take two hot reports
and a disappointing Q1 2024 wage growth data to force them to abort the mission.
The market expects three rate cuts this year, and while it’s unlikely that this
week’s report can change much the probability for the June move, it can change
the market’s pricing for the rest of the year.
The US Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 0.9% prior.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it remains relatively elevated. Hot data is likely to trigger a hawkish
response from the market considering the recent shift in the Fed’s stance.
This is because even if it might not cause
a second inflationary wave, elevated wage growth with a tight labour market
can keep inflation higher for longer risking a de-anchoring of expectations
and make it hard to return to target sustainably. Conversely, soft data can
lead to some positive risk sentiment with less fears about inflation and more
focus on growth.
The US Consumer Confidence is expected to tick
lower in April to 104.0 vs. 104.7 in
March. The Chief Economists at The
Conference Board highlighted that over the last six months, confidence has
been moving sideways with no real trend to the upside or downside either by
income or age group. Moreover, they added that consumers remained concerned
with elevated price levels but in general complaints have been trending
downward. Recession fears have also been trending downward and the assessments
of the present situation improved in March, primarily driven by more
positive views of the current employment situation. The Present Situation
Index will be something to watch as that’s generally a leading indicator
for the unemployment rate.
Wednesday
The New Zealand Q1 Labour Market report is
expected to show a 0.3% change in employment vs. 0.4% prior
with the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.3% vs. 4.0% prior. The Labour Costs Q/Q
is expected at 0.8% vs. 1.0% prior, while the Y/Y measure is seen ticking lower
to 3.8% vs. 3.9% prior. The RBNZ continues to expect the first rate cut in
2025, while the market sees the first move in August 2024. This might be
just the central bank’s strategy to avoid a premature easing in financial
conditions, especially after seeing what happened with the Fed’s pivot. A
sustained deterioration in the labour market though might not only make the
market to confirm the rate cut in 2024 but also increase the number of cuts.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected
to tick lower to 50.1 vs. 50.3 prior. Last
month, the index jumped into expansion for
the first time after 16 consecutive months in contraction with generally upbeat
commentary. The latest S&P
Global US Manufacturing PMI returned back
into contraction after the Q1 2024 expansion. The commentary this time has
been pretty bleak with even mentions of strong layoff activity, although there
was also good news on the inflation front. The ISM report is generally
considered more important by the market, so it will be used to confirm or
deny the S&P Global result.
The US Job Openings is expected at 8.680M
vs. 8.756M prior. This will be the first major US labour market report of
the week and, although it’s old (March data), it’s generally a market
moving release. The last
report we got a slight beat with negative
revisions to the prior readings highlighting a resilient although normalising
labour market. The market will also focus on the hiring and quit rates as they
both fell below the pre-pandemic trend lately.
The Fed is expected to keep interest rates
unchanged at 5.25-5.50% with no major changes to the statement except possibly
an acknowledgement of the recent setback in the disinflationary impulse. The
focus will be mostly on Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference and possible
updates on the QT taper. Overall, it’s hard to expect something new given the
recent hawkish Fedspeak with Fed’s
Williams even opening the door for a rate
hike in case the progress on inflation were to stall or worse, reverse. The
market is now fully pricing just one rate cut in 2024, which is incredible
given that it was pricing SEVEN! at the start of the year.
Thursday
The Switzerland CPI M/M is expected at
0.1% vs. 0.0% prior, while there’s no consensus for the Y/Y measure at the time
of writing although the prior
report missed forecasts once again falling
to 1.0% vs. 1.3% expected. The market has already priced in a rate cut in
June and for the rest of the year, so another marked fall could at the
margin increase the magnitude of the cuts from 25 bps to 50 bps.
The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier
indicator on the state of the labour market. This is because disinflation to
the Fed’s target is more likely with a weakening labour market. A resilient
labour market though could make the achievement of the target more difficult.
Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims
remain firm around the 1800K level. This week Initial Claims are expected at 212K
vs. 207K prior,
while there is no consensus at the time of writing for Continuing Claims
although the prior release showed a decrease to 1781K vs. 1814K expected and
1796K prior.
Friday
The US NFP report is expected to show 243K
jobs added in April vs. 303K in
March with the Unemployment Rate seen
unchanged at 3.8%. The Average Hourly Earnings M/M is expected at 0.3% vs. 0.3%
prior, while there’s no consensus for the Y/Y figure at the time of writing
although the previous release showed an easing to 4.1% vs. 4.3% prior. The
general expectations into the report will be shaped but other jobs data
throughout the week. We got some mixed signals recently with strong Jobless
Claims but weakening data in the NFIB Hiring Intentions and the S&P Global
PMIs. The focus will also be on wage growth as a good report with falling wage
growth might trigger some positive risk sentiment, while an uptick will likely
result in a hawkish reaction.
The US ISM Services PMI is expected at
52.0 vs. 51.4 prior. Last
month, the index missed expectations with
some general weakness in the sub-indexes, especially the prices component which
fell to the lowest level since March 2020. The latest S&P
Global US Services PMI missed expectations. The
commentary has been downbeat with even mentions of strong layoff activity,
although there was also good news on the inflation front. The most
important data to watch will be the price and employment sub-indexes.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
1) Rate differentials are the driver. You
can buy a 10-year Japanese government bond and get 0.9% per year or buy a US 10
and get 4.7%. Add in the weakening currency and there is a tidal wave of money
chasing this trade, which is a classic carry trade.
2) Intervention is an option but the
long history of intervention shows that it only helps when fundamentals are
improving. The Japanese government – which order the intervention – waved a bit
of a white flag this week in saying that it wasn’t currently weighing
intervention. That was a blunder because it gave the market the green light to
push further.
3) There was some hesitancy to push the
yen lower ahead of the Bank of Japan. In March they hiked rates for the first
time in 17 years and there was some angst they could tee up another move but
the decision was benign. They laid out an indeterminate timeline on hiking if
economic forecasts unfold as they hope.
4) Inflation isn’t rising. Somehow
Japan avoided the inflationary perfect storm that hit the rest of the world and
now prices are moderating. Today Tokyo reported CPI at 1.6% compared to 2.2%
expected. Now the miss was largely due to a one-off change to high school
tuition rates and the market picked up on that but it’s a headline that won’t boost
inflation expectations.
So what are
the options? The Japanese government can spend more to boost growth but that’s
hasn’t worked and the country is enormously indebted. There have been some
positive wage indications this spring but those will take 2-3 years to become
ingrained and hiking now would send the wrong signal.
So the
relief valve is the currency and it’s tough to see a floor.
What Japan –
and much of the world – is hoping for is a turn in the US dollar and global
inflation. If other central banks begin cutting then those rate differentials
narrow. Alternatively, if a recession looks like it’s on the horizon, there
will be a surge in the yen.
With a
carry trade, the money moves steadily and slowly but when there is trouble, it’s
a race to the exits. Back just before the financial crisis, there was this same
dynamic and money was flowing into the high-yielding AUD and NZD it unwound at
breakneck pace, including days with 10% currency moves.
But all they
can do right now is wait.
What’s driving the US dollar side of the trade
The dollar
bid right now is driven by inflation fears and specifically the fear that the
Fed will have to hike again. I think we’re close to the point of maximum
pessimism on that front.
The market
initially focused on this week’s US inflation numbers – which were hot – but eventually
pivoted to focusing on growth. If you look at good’s prices, they’re flat y/y
and Wal-Mart on Thursday emphasized that and was even talking about lowering meat
and vegetable prices.
The US
government is also running a deficit at 7% of GDP (compared to 1.4% in Canada).
I think the US dollar ultimately turns when the fiscal belt tightens, which isn’t
going to be until late 2025 at the earliest, though maybe the market starts to
price it in after the election, depending on the results.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
I’ve always gravitated towards financial news because it’s the one industry where there’s a scorecard. You can still get away with lies for a time (probably for too long) but if the profits or jobs don’t materialize, then there’s a price to pay. Ultimately though, you get paid to be right and by having a worldview that reflects reality.
Unfortunately, long-term thinking (and investing) are in decline. All news is geared to stirring emotions now and the strongest emotions are fear and anger. I can tell you, it’s much easier to generate traffic with those kinds of stories and headlines. What’s happened in the past 15 years is that everyone else has figured that out.
Angry and scared people click and it’s created some kind of doom-loop dopamine fix that far too many people are addicted to.
There are consequences. I’m amazed — though not surprised — by this chart from Ben Carlson today showing deteriorating views of local and national economies but a steady view of personal finances.
There are many similar examples.
Objectively, we can see that US unemployment is at historically low levels and yet people are pessimistic. It’s not only in the US either, though I think the toxicity of US political news is particularly bad.
Carlson argues that this is mostly symptomatic of the volume of news that people are consuming. We used to read newspapers perhaps once a day or watch an hour of somewhat balanced TV news. Now it’s all day long and the algos serve up headlines designed to drive engagement. Nine times out of ten, the engagement bait is fear and anger.
That’s bad news for all of us and dangerous for investors. What happens when truly bad times come? Will there be violence?
For investors it’s a trap too. Stories predicting crashes get 10x the attention than those predicting booms and those predicting ongoing moderate gains are ignored completely. In investing, the big money is always in the holding and in letting winners ride. Every headline you read makes keeping a calm head that much harder.
It’s not all downside though. Fearmongering in the news can lead to overshoots to the downside in markets as well and that will continue to create opportunities for people who have hardened themselves to the fear-cycle. But I’ll warn: it’s much easier to be fearful when others are greedy than it is to be greedy when others are fearful.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.