EURUSD:

USDJPY:

USDCHF:

USDCAD:

AUDUSD:

NZDUSD:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Nasdaq index closes at a new record high. S&P and Nasdaq close lower today
• US crude futures settle at $80.63
• ECB Centeno: Policy must, and will follow the inflation reality
• Reports of a terrorist attack in Moscow
• ECB’s Scicluna: A rate cut as soon as April could be warranted
• Scotiabank sees two reasons for further gold gains
• Baker Hughes US oil rig count 509 vs 510 prior
• European indices close the day mostly higher
• Italy targeted GDP and 1% for 2024
• GOP squabbles: Rep Marjorie Taylor Green files motion to oust Speaker Mike Johnson
• Bitcoin downtrend triggers technical support pursuit
• US Secretary of State Blinken warned is Israeli PM Netanyahu and his war cabinet
• What did Nike, Lululemon and FedEx said about the global economy
• Kickstart your FX trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD
• Canada January retail sales -0.3% vs -0.4% expected
• The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: The dollar rebound gathers pace
• Is there another BOJ rate hike on the cards for this year?

The USD is ending the day mostly higher with gains vs all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY and CHF (-0.16% and -0.06 respectively).

The greenback rose the most vs the AUD (+0.84%), NZD (+0.79%) and CAD (+0.59%). Solid gains on the day (near 0.50%) were made vs the EUR and the GBP as well.

For the trading week, the USD moved higher vs ALL the major currencies. Below is those gains:

• EUR: +0.72%
• JPY: +1.59%
• GBP: +1.03%
• CHF: +1.46%
• CAD: +0.50%
• AUD: +0.71%
• NZD: +1.52%

The gains in the greenback came despite declines in US yields this week indicative of either an oversold USD, an overbought condition in foreign currencies or simply a head-scratching move. It may also be a fundamental feeling that the US economy is stronger than the others. Fundamentally, the SNB did cut rates by surprise, but the BOJ raised rates for the first time in 17 years.

The RBA and BOE kept rates unchanged this week as did the Fed. The Fed did keep the dot plot at 3 cuts in 2024, BUT it did raise GDP estimates, and lowered the end of year unemployment rate.

• 2-year yield -13.7 basis points
• 5-year yield -14.0 basis points
• 10-year yield -10.6 basis points
• 30-year yield -5.0 basis points

For the trading day, yields moved lower despite the dollar rise.

• 2-year yield 4.595%, -3.6 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.191%, -6.2 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.204%, -6.7 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.381%, -6.1 basis points

US stocks today were mixed with the Dow and the S&P closing lower for the day, but still higher for the week. The Nasdaq closed at a new record high today

• Dow fell -0.77%, but was up 1.97% for the week
• S&P fell -0.14%, but was up 2.29% for the week (largest gains since December)
• Nasdaq rose 0.16%, and was up 2.85% (largest gain since 2nd week in January)

Next week, Friday is a holiday in Australian, New Zealand, and Europe for Good Friday. Core PCE will be released on Friday in the US. Fed’s Powell will also speak on Friday, giving him a chance to comment on the Fed’s favored inflation gauge.

Australia CPI will be released on Wednesday (Tuesday night in the US). Advance US durable goods will be released on Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET.

In other markets at week end:

• Crude oil is trading down $0.20 on the day. For the week, the price fell -$0.21 or -0.17%
• Gold rose $9.97 or 0.45%
• Silver fell -$0.50 or -2.03%
• Bitcoin fell -$4869 or -7.1% on the week.

Thank you for your support this week. Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US indices are closing with mixed results today. The Dow industrial average and S&P index both closed lower. No record closes for those indices on the last trading day of the week. The NASDAQ index did close in positive territory and at a new record.

A summary of the closing levels shows:

• Dow industrial average -305.49 points for -0.77% at 39475.91
• S&P index-7.37.4 -0.14% at 5234.17
• NASDAQ index rose 26.97 points or 0.16% at 16428.81.

The small-cap Russell 2012-26.56 points or -1.27% at 2071.99.

For the trading week, the major indices (and the Russell 2000) all closed higher:

• Dow industrial average rose 1.602%
• S&P index rose 2.29%, its best week since December.
• NASDAQ index rose 2.85%, its best week since January 8 week
• Russell 2000 rose 1.60%.

The NASDAQ and S&P indices has only had four down trading weeks in 2024. For the trading year:

• Dow industrial average is up 4.74%
• S&P index is up 9.74%
• NASDAQ index is up 9.44%
• Russell 2000 is up 2.216%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY bumped against three-year highs this week on both Wednesday and Friday, and found willing sellers each time. The high on Wednesday reached 151.81. The high today reached 151.85. That compares to the 2022 high at 151.95, and the 2023 high at 151.91. So over the last three years, the swing highs are within 10 pips of each other. That’s a ceiling.

Having said that ceilings are meant to be broken. If it happens, it would take the USDJPY to the highest level since 1990 over 30+ years ago.

What would give the sellers more confidence?

The swing highs from February into early March peaked between 150.71 and 150.88. If the sellers are to take more control, getting and staying below that lower ceiling would be needed to increase the bearish bias. Absent that and the sellers are not winning. The buyers are still in firm control.

In the video above, I outline the technicals for the USDJPY in more detail as you prepare for the new trading week.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $80.63. That is down $0.44 or -0.54%.

The low for the day reached $80.42. The high was up at $81.45. For the trading week, the price is down -0.51% on a decline of $0.41. At session highs this week, the price was up $2.08. At session lows, the price was down $0.74.

Looking at the weekly chart below, the high price this week at $83.12 briefly moved above its 100-week moving average at $83.27 before rotating back to the downside. Buyers had a shot. They missed.

The low for the week was reached yesterday at $80.30.

The price is back below its 50% midpoint of the 2023 trading range at $81.37. Getting back above that midpoint level is needed – along with a break of the 100-week moving average -to increase the bullish bias on the weekly chart.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

MetaWin, a leading
platform for online prize-winning games, has introduced a groundbreaking
initiative focused on enhancing transparency and fairness for players globally.
After extensive research, MetaWin identified inconsistencies in Return to
Player (RTP) rates among different operators, causing confusion among players.

Understanding RTP is crucial for players looking to make
informed gaming choices. In simple terms, RTP represents the percentage of
wagers that a game returns to players over time. For instance, a game with
an RTP of 97% would typically return around $97 for every $100 wagered.

MetaWin has introduced a maximum win guarantee for all its
games, aiming to maintain the highest RTP levels across the platform. According
to the team, this measure is designed to provide players with exceptional odds
and a satisfying gaming experience.

„At MetaWin, our top priorities are transparency and
player satisfaction,“ stated Rebecca Hanwell, Operations
Manager at Metawin. „Our commitment to maximising RTP isn’t just a
goal; it’s a pledge to provide our users with the best gaming experience
possible.“

A significant challenge for players is the lack of clarity
regarding the versions of games offered by operators. Many popular games, like
Gates of Olympus, come in multiple payout settings, with operators often
selecting versions that offer lower RTP without informing players.

„MetaWin aims to tackle this issue by offering easy
access to RTP information for all games on its platform, ensuring transparency
and empowering players to make educated decisions“,
emphasised Rebecca Hanwell, Operations Manager at Metawin. „With our
maximum win guarantee, players can rest assured that they always receive the
best possible odds when choosing to play with us.“

MetaWin’s dedication to transparency and fairness is
setting a new industry standard in online gaming. The team highlights that by
prioritising player interests and committing to ensuring maximum RTP across all
games, they are actively reshaping the gaming experience for millions
worldwide.

About Metawin

MetaWin (https://metawin.com),
a leading prize-winning online platform, is revolutionising the landscape of
digital competitions. Utilising blockchain technology, MetaWin ensures every
competition is characterised by transparency, fairness, and excitement. With a
proven track record of offering substantial prizes and a dedicated focus on
innovation, MetaWin is reshaping the future of online contests.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Economic growth projected to pick up during the year, mainly driven by increasing purchasing power
• Economic resilience requires higher productivity, which needs higher capital investment
• Capital Markets Union (CMU) will have to play a key role in that regard

Nothing on monetary policy there by Lagarde.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• But the timing of the rate cut is unclear
• We are data dependent
• There are many who believe that developments in June will be such that we can cut at the time
• My view is that inflation is stickier than those people believe, which is why I am waiting for June data

Hmm, is he alluding to a move in July instead? For now, he seems to be the only one with a bit of vagueness in his remarks. Most of the other policymakers at the ECB are leaning towards June. And unless the data suggests otherwise, markets will continue to price in the first move for June as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The monthly order book balance shows just a marginal improvement in March. But the standout detail is perhaps that manufacturers are looking to increase selling prices by the most since last May. This owes to continued disruptions in the Red Sea, hurting supply chains. That might be a risk factor for the BOE to watch out for in the months ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite closed the day
negative as the price retreated from overstretched levels reached after the Fed
decision. We also got another slate of strong US data yesterday with the US Jobless Claims beating
expectations and the US Manufacturing PMI
increasing further into expansion. The comments in the PMI report were a bit
worrying as there were mentions of steep rise in costs and strengthened
pricing power amid the recent upturn in demand. This pushed the overall
selling price inflation for goods and services up to the highest levels for
nearly a year. The next inflation report will be crucial for the market as
another beat will likely be taken as very bad news at this point.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite yesterday retreated from the all-time high as the market pulled back
from the overstretched rally triggered by the FOMC decision. There’s not much
we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more
details.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price has been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. We continue to trade inside the rising wedge, so if
the price were to break below the trendline, the
sellers will have much more conviction to look for new lows with the base of
the wedge at 14477 being the ultimate target. For now, the buyers remain in
control, so we should find them around the bottom trendline targeting the top
trendline.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see the recent
breakout of the resistance. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will
have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will
also find the red 21 moving average and
the Fibonacci
retracement levels for confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, will need to wait for the break of the major
trendline before considering new positions.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.