Lagarde said that her son „ignored me royally, which is his privilege“. And that he „lost almost all the money that he had invested“.

„It wasn’t a lot but he lost it all, about 60% of it. So when I then had another talk with him about it, he reluctantly accepted that I was right. I have, as you can tell, a very low opinion of cryptos. People are free to invest their money where they want, people are free to speculate as much as they want, (but) people should not be free to participate in criminally sanctioned trade and business.“

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Just because someone got it right once doesn’t mean all of
his predictions and actions will always be correct. Since 2017, he has been
going about an impending collapse that has yet to happen.

Yes, there may be signs of a possible collapse, such as a bubble in the commercial real estate
market, troubled debts in regional banks, overvaluation of
technology, etc. But the market always sets its own rules.

Hope Dies Last

There seem to be reasons for a downturn and a full-blown
collapse, but the indices are still not falling. The reason is that investors
would instead look to an optimistic future than to a gloomy present.

The thinking is this: yes, corporate bankruptcies are
rising, troubled debts and delinquencies among the population are rising, but
inflation is falling, so the Fed will start lowering rates sooner than
expected.

The fact that a mere reversal of the regulator’s monetary
policy will not solve all the problems seems to worry no one. Or at least, no
one realizes the risks yet, acting on the principle of striking while the iron
is hot.

The question remains whether this strategy will be
successful in the long run or whether, as in the past, a change in the Fed’s
actions will lead to a recession and a significant market sell-off. 

For now, the trend remains powerfully bullish; QQQ is
breaking yearly highs, and the indices are moving in the same direction, and it
is hard to say what could stop them. One of the last hopes rests on Nvidia’s
poor results.

The only problem is the high probability that the company will not disappoint. 

Will Nvidia be a boost?

Analysts expect the company’s total revenue to grow 172% to
$16.2 billion and revenue from the data center segment nearly quadruple to
$13.02 billion, up from $3.83 billion a year earlier.

On Wall Street, Nvidia’s adjusted earnings are expected to
rise to $3.37, up from $0.58 in the same quarter last year. The reasons for
these numbers remain the same: the company’s dominant position in generative
artificial intelligence.

The consensus forecast for Nvidia stock is
$648.01, and judging by the pre-results optimism, the company’s shares could
surpass $600. The bottom line is that if Nvidia rises, so will the shares of
other semiconductor, AI and related companies.

Opening a short position in the face of such prospects is
an extremely risky venture; at the very least, it requires significant capital.
Otherwise, you may face a margin call and substantial losses.

Think before you act.

When we see headlines trumpeting the opening of a position
by a large investor, it is not worth rushing to imitate them. Firstly, it is
unclear exactly when they opened it, and secondly, they can afford to take
risks, whereas a small investor might not.

Remember risk management, use technical analysis tools such
as a volume indicator to confirm a trend
and research before buying or selling anything. It may not make you a
millionaire in a few months, but it won’t bankrupt you either.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The Dow Jones this week held into last week’s gains
as the lack of economic releases and the Thanksgiving Day holiday contributed
to a steady risk sentiment. On the data front, the US Jobless Claims on
Wednesday beat expectations across the board, which is a good thing for the
market at the moment given some recession fears, although one beat after a
series of misses doesn’t change the trend. Today, all eyes will be on the US
PMIs, but given the early closure for Black Friday we might not see much
movement, unless the data surprises.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones is
approaching the cycle high around the 35600 level. This rally continues to be
supported more by the FOMO rather than some strong fundamental driver. We could
see some profit taking around these levels which would finally give a decent
pullback.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price is diverging with
the MACD right
as it approaches the cycle high. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum
often followed pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be another hint
that we could see at least a pullback very soon.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see even
better the divergence with the MACD which has been going on since the break
above the key resistance around
the 34000 level. The buyers are likely to lean on the trendline and
the red 21 moving average to
target the cycle high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to pile in and target first the low around the 34800 level
and upon a further break, the support at 34000.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• The battle against inflation is not over
• We are not declaring victory yet
• We are seeing progress on inflation

It’s just some token remarks overall, as it reaffirms the ECB’s pause stance at the moment. Carry on as you will.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Major currencies are not doing a whole lot today and with it being the Thanksgiving weekend, it’s not too much of a surprise. This is one of those days that trading appetite is sapped and with there not being much on the economic calendar either, there isn’t much for traders to work with on the day. Here’s a snapshot of dollar pairs right now:

The only notable thing about trading today is that we are seeing some decent moves in the bond market as noted here. But that is not quite reverberating to other asset classes. So, we might be in for a quieter period as we wind down to the weekend in the hours ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Sees 10-year Treasury yields at 3.7% by the end of 2024
• The pain coming from higher rates has been postponed
• It will come next year and in 2025
• Markets are overlooking the risk of a ‚bad surprise‘ on inflation
• Does not think that markets are prepared for inflation to change course

That is certainly something to watch out for and as far as curveballs go, this is one that markets should be bracing for in case. And it is one reason that perhaps would work in the dollar’s favour to counter the argument that we’re now poised for an imminent demise in the currency heading into next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Copper broke out of the
triangle in the first part of the week and triggered a rally into the next
resistance defined by a trendline. The recent positive Chinese activity data
could have been the catalyst for the breakout which triggered momentum buyers
to join the bullish wave. Overall, the picture is still murky, and the global
growth outlook is more likely to weaken with the central banks keeping monetary
conditions tight.

Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Copper broke
out of the triangle in the
first part of the week and rallied into the trendline formed
with the fakeout from last August. The price got rejected at the first try as
the rally was a bit overstretched and needed a bit of a pullback. We can expect
the sellers to keep leaning on this trendline to position for a drop back into
the 3.55 support.

Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that after the
rejection the price bounced on the upward trendline where there was also the
50% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The
buyers will want to see the price breaking above the major downward trendline
to increase the bullish bets into the 3.90 level. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the 3.55 support.

Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action. We will likely see some consolidation inside
these key levels with market participants waiting for a breakout. The playbook
looks clear though: a break to the upside is likely to lead to a rally into the
3.90 level, while a break to the downside should trigger a correction at least
into the 3.75 support.

Upcoming Events

Today the US will be on holiday for Thanksgiving Day
and therefore the liquidity in the market will be thinner. Tomorrow, we
conclude the week with the US PMIs where weaker data is likely to put some
pressure on Copper, while strong figures should support it in the short-term.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

And that is pared back from around the middle of next year before this. So, what changed? I detailed some thoughts earlier in my post about GBP/USD:

„For one, there are a couple of things to be mindful of with the UK headlines today. With regards to the PMI data, the economy looks to be in better shape than feared in Q4 and that will give the BOE more breathing room on rates. Besides that, the data also highlights more stubborn inflation pressures and that will see the central bank stick with a more hawkish rhetoric for as long as they can get away with it. And if the economy continues to hold up, who is to say that we might not see another rate hike? Other than that, we also had Ofgem announce a higher price cap on energy prices and that will feed into inflation pressures too in the bigger picture.“

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The pound is finding comfort from the better-than-expected UK PMI data earlier here, with GBP/USD now rising up by 0.5% to 1.2550 levels. The thing to note about the rise today is that perhaps buyers are looking to be able to shake off key resistance around 1.2500 with the 100-day moving average (red line) also resting nearby.

That has kept price action more contained so far this week but we might just finally get a breakout today after the better data. The question is, can the break hold and is the data significant enough to warrant that?

I reckon that it just might. For one, there are a couple of things to be mindful of with the UK headlines today. With regards to the PMI data, the economy looks to be in better shape than feared in Q4 and that will give the BOE more breathing room on rates. Besides that, the data also highlights more stubborn inflation pressures and that will see the central bank stick with a more hawkish rhetoric for as long as they can get away with it. And if the economy continues to hold up, who is to say that we might not see another rate hike?

Other than that, we had Ofgem announce a higher price cap on energy prices and that will feed into inflation pressures too in the bigger picture.

So, these are decent developments that could turn the picture around for the pound; in the sense that it is going to keep a firmer BOE outlook on rates at least. And that might be enough for cable to contest a move higher amid a technical break, as the dollar remains weak across the board as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy
  tightening have yet to be felt.
• The recent US CPI missed
  expectations across the board bringing the expectations for rate cuts
  forward. 
• The labour market is
  starting to show weakness as Continuing Claims are now
  rising at a fast pace and the recent NFP report
  missed across the board, but yesterday the US Jobless Claims beat
  forecasts giving the USD a short-term boost.
• The latest US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a big margin,
  followed by a disappointing ISM Services PMI,
  although the latter remained in expansion.
• The recent US Retail Sales beat
  expectations, while the US PPI missed
  forecasts by a big margin.
• The recent Fedspeak has been leaning on
  the hawkish side, but last week’s inflation report pretty much confirmed that
  the Fed might be done for the cycle.
• The market doesn’t
  expect the Fed to hike anymore.

CAD

• The BoC left interest rates at 5.00% as expected at the last meeting but
  remains prepared to raise rates further if needed.
• BoC Governor Macklem delivered a less hawkish speech in
  the press conference compared to his previous remarks.
• The recent Canadian CPI missed expectations across the
  board and the underlying inflation measures eased, which was a welcome
  development for the BoC.
• On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations
  across the board with negative figures in full-time employment and slowing wage
  growth, which is going to be another positive outcome for the central bank.
• The market doesn’t expect the BoC to
  hike anymore.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD has
finally reached the key trendline around
the 1.3650 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in more
aggressively with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally
back into the highs and eyeing a break to the upside. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the 1.34 handle.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have some
key support and
resistance zones. The buyers should pile in at the support zone around the
1.3650 level with a defined risk below it. If we see a bounce, the sellers will
lean on the resistance zone around the 1.3750 level where we will also find the
downward trendline for confluence.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the bullish setup around the major trendline and the support zone at
1.3650. A break below this zone should invalidate the bullish setup and
increase the bearish momentum into the 1.34 handle. On the other hand, a break
above the resistance zone and the trendline should increase the bullish
momentum as the buyers will add even more to their upside bets and the sellers
will likely fold.

Upcoming Events

Today the US will be on holiday for Thanksgiving Day
and therefore the liquidity in the market will be thinner. Tomorrow, we
conclude the week with the Canadian Retail Sales and the US PMIs.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.