Risk to keep an eye out for yields in the rearview mirror 0 (0)

10-year Treasury yields are down to 4.707% now after returning from the long weekend, down notably from 4.782% at the end of Friday. That being said, they are much higher than the opening gap lower of 4.636% earlier today. We already saw how stocks brushed aside the Middle East conflict yesterday, will we see the same for the bond market later in the day?

That’s certainly something to watch out for and that could hurt risk sentiment, despite the strong rebound we are seeing in stocks since late yesterday. My gut feel tells me that investors are likely to keep any optimism in check, so perhaps we might not get roaring gains especially since the US CPI data is coming up on Thursday. But if bonds are going to topple over, it could see selling flows spill over to broader markets as well in the session(s) ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Chances of more upside after the failed breakout 0 (0)

US:

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
    expected at the last meeting.
  • The macroeconomic projections were revised higher
    as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot
    showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end
    of the year with less rate cuts in 2024.
  • Fed Chair Powell
    reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully.
  • The latest US Core PCE
    came
    in line with expectations with disinflation continuing steady.
  • The labour market remains
    fairly solid as seen last week with another strong beat in Jobless Claims and the NFP report.
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI beat
    expectations while the ISM Services PMI came in
    line with forecasts in another sign that the US economy remains resilient.
  • The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

Australia:

  • The
    RBA kept interest rates unchanged as expected as they are seeing inflation
    returning to target with the current level of interest rates.
  • The
    latest monthly CPI showed that core inflation is
    slowing.
  • The
    labour market is weakening as we got a big miss
    in July and the bulk of jobs added in August were part time.
  • The
    Australian Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction while
    the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
  • The
    market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting as well.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the AUDUSD pair
was diverging with the
MACD right
when it was trying to break out of the range. This is generally a sign of
weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the
pair failed to sustain the breakout and bounced back into the range. The buyers
might now have enough conviction to target the top of the range around the 0.65
handle.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
action within the range is a real mess with frequent spikes and erratic
movements. From a risk management perspective, the buyers would be better off
to wait for the price to pull back into the lower bound of the regression
channel around the 0.6380 level where they will also have the confluence with the
red 21 moving average. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the support zone
around the 0.6370 level to position again for new lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the bullish setup with the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement
level adding further confluence to the
support around the 0.6380 level. As previously mentioned, the sellers will want
to see the price breaking below the lower bound of the channel to invalidate
the bullish setup and position for another selloff into new lows.

Upcoming Events

This week the market is likely to focus on the CPI
report as that’s what might change the expectations around the next FOMC rate
decision. Today, we will see the US PPI data and later in the day the FOMC
Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow, it will be the time for the US CPI report, and at
the same time we will also get the latest Jobless Claims figures. On Friday we conclude
the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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US September NFIB small business optimism index 90.8 vs 91.3 prior 0 (0)

  • Prior 91.3

This marks 21 months in a row now that the index has come in below the 49-year average of 98. Of note, 23% of business owners continue to report that inflation remains their single biggest problem in operating their business – similar to last month. The full report can be found here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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OPEC secretary general says not too worried about China in medium to long-term 0 (0)

  • OPEC+ action helped to reduce oil market volatility
  • Will have a pavilion at COP28 to showcase how OPEC members are dealing with emissions
  • Hopes that all voices will be at the table at COP28

Just some token remarks there by Al Ghais. He’s trying to sound reassuring on China but really, no one can say with relative comfort that there are issues over there that can be easily brushed aside for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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USDCAD Technical Analysis – The correction lower is still underway 0 (0)

US:

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
    expected at the last meeting.
  • The macroeconomic projections were revised higher
    as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot
    showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end
    of the year with less rate cuts in 2024.
  • Fed Chair Powell
    reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully.
  • The latest US Core PCE
    came
    in line with expectations with disinflation continuing steady.
  • The labour market remains
    fairly solid as seen last week with another strong beat in Jobless Claims and the NFP report.
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI beat
    expectations while the ISM Services PMI came in
    line with forecasts in another sign that the US economy remains resilient.
  • The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

Canada:

  • The BoC left interest rates at 5.00% as expected but remains prepared to
    raise rates further if needed.
  • BoC Governor Macklem delivered a hawkish speech which points to another rate hike
    if the data remains strong into the next policy meeting.
  • The Canadian underlying inflation
    data has been beating expectations month after month with another beat across the board recently.
  • On the labour market side, the recent
    report beat expectations and showed another uptick in wage growth, which is something that Governor
    Macklem said the BoC is watching carefully.
  • The market doesn’t expect the BoC to
    hike at the upcoming meeting with odds hovering around 40%, but the central
    bank is not afraid to deliver surprising decisions.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the USDCAD pair
recently broke above a key resistance level
around 1.3668, but sold off soon after helped by a strong Canadian jobs report
that raised the chances of another rate hike from the BoC on October 25. We can
notice also that the last leg higher diverged with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we might see the price falling into the trendline before
finding strong buyers.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that as soon as the
price broke through the strong support around the 1.3660 level, the bearish
momentum intensified as more sellers piled in to target the upward trendline
around the 1.35 handle. We have another support zone around the 1.3550 level
where we can find the previous swing level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. That’s
where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to
target a new high.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a minor downward trendline that coupled with the red 21 moving average is
likely to act as resistance for the current downtrend. In fact, we can expect
the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position
for a drop into the 1.35 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking above the trendline to pile in and target a new high.

Upcoming Events

This week the market is likely to focus on the CPI
report as that’s what might change the expectations around the next FOMC rate
decision. Today, we will see the US PPI data and later in the day the FOMC
Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow, it will be the time for the US CPI report, and at
the same time we will also get the latest Jobless Claims figures. On Friday we conclude
the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Stocks continue to be pinned lower so far today 0 (0)

It’s been a quiet one to start the new week and with it being a partial holiday in the US, that should also make for a slower session later on. The big news so far is still the surprise attacks by Hamas on Israel, leading to plenty of uncertainty in the Middle East at the moment. The latest is Israel calling for Chevron to shut down natural gas production at its Tamar platform amid safety concerns. The conflict is leading to plenty of anxiety all around for now.

S&P 500 futures are still down 0.6% and not much changed since the opening gap lower today. Meanwhile, European indices are keeping in the red but not much worse than their opening losses as well.

In FX, the dollar and yen continue to stay more bid with EUR/USD down 0.5% to 1.0530 and AUD/USD down 0.3% to 0.6360 currently.

It seems like markets are just waiting for this to quickly pass and get back to the usual business order before we get to the US CPI data later in the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Kwakol Markets Academy’s Educational Resources Transform Beginners into Investors 0 (0)

Nigeria-based, global multi-asset broker Kwakol Markets, which won the ‘Most Innovative Broker – Africa’ at the UF AWARDS MEA 2023, has extended its innovative approach into providing lifelong educational resources, transforming beginners into investors while offering more experienced traders a Telegram community to discuss market trends and strategies.

The world of trading and investing can seem daunting to beginners, with its complex terminology and ever-changing trends. However, Kwakol Markets is determined to break down these barriers by providing free educational resources through their Kwakol Market Academy. Kwakol Market Academy offers comprehensive courses, free classes, regularly updated news, e-books, and an engaging Telegram community aimed at empowering individuals to make informed investment decisions and achieve their financial goals.

Education is vital for anyone seeking success in the financial markets. Without a solid understanding of investment principles and strategies, individuals may find themselves at a higher risk of making poor decisions. Kwakol Market Academy recognises the importance of education and aims to bridge the knowledge gap for aspiring investors and traders. By learning from accessible and comprehensive educational resources, traders can make more informed decisions, better manage risk, and maximise their investment potential.

Kwakol Market Academy offers a range of comprehensive courses designed to build strong investment foundations. These courses cover various aspects of investing and trading, from basic concepts to advanced strategies. Whether you are a complete beginner or a seasoned investor looking to expand your knowledge, there is a course tailored to your needs. The courses are carefully crafted by industry experts, ensuring that the content is relevant, accurate, and up-to-date. By taking these courses, individuals can gain a solid understanding of investment principles and develop the skills necessary to pursue returns in the financial markets with confidence.

In addition to their comprehensive courses, Kwakol Market Academy provides access to free classes covering diverse topics in the financial markets. These classes are designed to cater to the needs of different individuals, regardless of their level of experience or specific interests. Whether you are interested in stocks, forex, commodities, or cryptocurrencies, you can find a class that suits your interests. The free classes offer valuable insights into various investment strategies, market trends, and risk management techniques. By attending these classes, individuals can broaden their knowledge and gain a well-rounded understanding of the financial markets.

Staying informed is essential for anyone participating in the financial markets. To help investors stay up to date with the latest news and developments, Kwakol Market Academy provides regular news articles. These articles cover a wide range of topics, including market trends, economic indicators, company announcements, and regulatory changes. By staying informed, individuals can make more knowledgeable investment decisions and adapt their strategies accordingly. Kwakol Market Academy’s commitment to providing timely and accurate news gives investors access to the fast-changing information they need to stay ahead in the markets.

For traders seeking more in-depth insights into trading strategies, Kwakol Market Academy offers a selection of e-books. These e-books delve into various trading techniques, providing readers with a deeper understanding of the mechanics behind successful trading. For those interested in technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or a specific trading strategy, there’s an e-book that covers each topic. The e-books are written by industry experts and offer practical tips and advice that comes from real-world trading scenarios. By reading these e-books, individuals can enhance their trading skills and increase their chances of success in the financial markets.

In addition to their educational resources, Kwakol Market Academy’s Telegram community brings together traders and investors to discuss market trends, share ideas, and seek advice. This community serves as a valuable platform for networking and knowledge sharing, allowing individuals to learn from each other’s experiences and perspectives. A valuable source of information for beginners looking for guidance or experienced traders seeking to connect with like-minded individuals, the Telegram community provides a supportive and collaborative environment. By participating in these discussions, individuals can gain valuable insights, expand their network, and further develop their understanding of the market dynamics.

Kwakol Market Academy’s educational resources are a strong foundation for beginners and experienced traders alike. By offering comprehensive courses, free classes, regularly updated news, e-books, and a lively Telegram community, Kwakol Markets empowers individuals to build strong investment foundations and make informed decisions in the financial markets.

Whether you are just starting out or looking to enhance your trading skills, Kwakol Market Academy has the resources you need to succeed. Take advantage of these educational offerings and embark on your journey towards your financial goals by visiting their website.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – The odds are in favour of a rally 0 (0)

Last Friday, the NFP report
massively beat forecasts with 336K jobs added against 170K expected. The
unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8% and average hourly earnings were a
touch lower. Overall, the market viewed it as a good release with the
soft-landing narrative prevailing. Over the weekend, Hamas launched a big attack
against Israel
which might cause some risk aversion in the
markets, although it’s likely to be short-lived as long as the conflict remains
in the Levant.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite
eventually rallied strongly from the trendline and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
following the strong NFP report. The buyers might now be in control and the
target should be the downward trendline around the 13800 level. The sellers, on
the other hand, will need the rally to fail completely and the price to get
back below the 13174 support to
increase the bearish momentum and take the Nasdaq Composite to new lows.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely that
the Nasdaq Composite broke out of the consolidation around the support zone as
the price breached the resistance defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
level. The buyers are likely to pile in with more conviction now targeting the
13800 level.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
had a divergence with
the MACD right
into the strong support zone which is generally a sign of weakening momentum
often followed by pullbacks or reversals. The Nasdaq Composite might open lower
today following the events over the weekend, but the buyers should take that as
a dip-buying opportunity and pile in around the resistance turned
support
with a defined risk below the most recent swing low.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
start positioning for further downside and break of the most recent low.

Upcoming
Events

This week we have some important inflation reports. On
Wednesday, we will get the US PPI data and later in the day the FOMC Meeting
Minutes. On Thursday, it will be the time for the main release of the week,
that is the US CPI report, and at the same time we will see the latest Jobless
Claims figures. Finally, on Friday we will get the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Dow Jones Technical Analysis – Watch what happens around this support zone 0 (0)

Last Friday, the NFP report
massively beat forecasts with 336K jobs added against 170K expected. The
unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8% and average hourly earnings were a
touch lower. Overall, the market viewed it as a good release with the
soft-landing narrative prevailing. Over the weekend, Hamas launched a big attack
against Israel
which might cause some risk aversion in the
markets, although it’s likely to be short-lived as long as the conflict remains
in the Levant.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones
rallied last Friday following the strong NFP report before pulling back a bit
into the close. The buyers might now be eyeing the resistance around
the 34000 level where we can find the confluence with the
trendline, the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. That
will be a strong level where the sellers will be leaning on to position for
another selloff into new lows.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
broke out of the downward trendline and the minor resistance around the 33258
defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. We might see this resistance
becoming support now with the buyers leaning on it to position for another
rally into the 34000 resistance.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the divergence with
the MACD was
signalling a loss of bearish momentum which is often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. The break of the trendline should point to a reversal and the target
should be the 34000 resistance. The support zone around the 32258 level will be
key now as a bounce should point to further upside, while a break lower is
likely to give back control to the sellers and lead to another drop into the
32600 level.

Upcoming Events

This week we have some important inflation reports. On
Wednesday, we will get the US PPI data and later in the day the FOMC Meeting
Minutes. On Thursday, it will be the time for the main release of the week,
that is the US CPI report, and at the same time we will see the latest Jobless
Claims figures. Finally, on Friday we will get the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Reminder: It is a US bond market holiday today 0 (0)

It’s all about the risk-off vibes for now amid the kneejerk reaction to the events over the weekend, in which we saw a surprise attack by Hamas on Israel. That is keeping equities on the defensive while the dollar is bid in European morning trade so far.

But just be wary that while European bond yields are lower amid safety flows, Treasuries are not open for trading today. And that is a major caveat to take note of, considering how the US bond market has been leading the rest of the market over the last three weeks or so.

Wall Street will still be open to trade stocks but it’s hard to read too much into the moves today until we get bond traders back in. For now, there is the broader element of risk aversion but once the fear is faded, we’ll get back to the regular scheduled programming soon enough. And I reckon it could only take a day or two since we do have the US CPI data coming up later in the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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