Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Watch these levels for the next direction 0 (0)

Despite the strength in the US data this week and
another beat in Jobless Claims
yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite didn’t sell off like we saw in the past week.
The index is hovering around a key support level and it looks like the soft
landing vibes might be returning now that the hangover from the more hawkish
than expected FOMC dot plot might be in the rear view mirror.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis
Nasdaq Composite Daily

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite continues to consolidate around the key support at
13174. It’s all bout having the patience to wait for a clear breakout with the
target on the upside standing at the downward trendline around
the 13800 level and on the downside at the 12274 support.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis
Nasdaq Composite 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the recent
rally got rejected from the red 21 moving average and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The
lack of a follow through from the rejection, and the consolidation around the
support level might be a signal that the Nasdaq Composite could be about to
start a correction to the upside.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis
Nasdaq Composite 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely that we have a clear range between the low around the 12965 level and
the resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. In such instances, the
best strategy may be to wait for a clear breakout and go with the flow, but one
can also “play the range” by selling at resistance and buying at support.

Upcoming
Events

Today it’s all about the NFP report which is the only one the Fed will
see before its next rate decision. The US jobs data going into the NFP was
strong, so the expectations might be skewed to the upside.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Large EUR/USD options run off after the jobs report– a look at today’s FX options 0 (0)

The US dollar continues to lose ground ahead of today’s non-farm payrolls report. That’s helped to boost EUR/USD up to 1.0558.

For the 10am NY cut, there are some huge expiries today, both in the 1.0650 range and 1.0450 range.

The euro options expirations aren’t the only notable ones with some big Aussie numbers rolling off, particularly at 0.6400, which will surely be in play with AUD/USD trading at 0.6365.

Details:

  • EUR/USD: 1.0450 (3.4B), 1.0500-10 (2.5B), 1.0550-60 (2.7B)
    1.0575-80 (1.2B), 1.0600 (900M), 1.0640-50 (3.4B), 1.0685 (2.8B)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9030 (800M), 0.9160 (600M), 0.9250 (300M)
  • EUR/GBP: 0.8610 (350M), 0.8785 (400M)
  • GBP/USD: 1.2100 (400M), 1.2175 (814M), 1.2200 (850M), 1.2225 (1B)
    1.2250 (485M)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6300 (1.5B), 0.6350 (700M), 0.6380-85 (1.3B)
    0.6390-0.6400 (4.3B)
  • NZD/USD: 0.5880-90 (640M), 0.5940 (200M), 0.5990-95 (600M)
  • USD/CAD: 1.3625 (1.5B), 1.3665 (680M), 1.3750 (340M)
  • USD/JPY: 148.75 (360M)
    149.00 (895M), 149.35-50 (2.5BLN), 150.00 (2.1BLN)

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Watch this key resistance 0 (0)

US:

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
    expected at the last meeting.
  • The macroeconomic projections were revised higher
    as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot
    showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end
    of the year with less rate cuts in 2024.
  • Fed Chair Powell
    reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully as
    they are trying to find the optimal level of rates. Powell also added that the
    soft landing is not the base case at the moment, although they are aiming for
    it.
  • The latest US Core PCE
    came
    in line with expectations with disinflation continuing steady.
  • The labour market
    displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid as seen also with
    another strong beat in Jobless Claims
    yesterday and with the beat in Job Openings.
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI beat
    expectations while the ISM Services PMI came in
    line with forecasts in another sign that the US economy remains resilient.
  • The miss in the ADP report led to
    some USD weakness which might continue if the NFP data misses forecasts.
  • The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike again at
    the moment.

Australia:

  • The
    RBA kept interest rates unchanged as expected as they are seeing inflation
    returning to target with the current level of interest rates.
  • The
    latest monthly CPI showed that core inflation is
    slowing.
  • The
    labour market is weakening as we got a big miss
    in July and the bulk of jobs added in August were part time.
  • The
    Australian Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction while
    the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
  • The
    market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting as well.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
AUDUSD Daily

On the daily chart, we can see that the AUDUSD pair
recently broke out of the range and pulled back into the broken support now turned resistance which
might end up in a classic “break and retest” pattern. This is where the sellers
should step in with a defined risk above the resistance to
target the 0.6168 level.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
AUDUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have also
the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence and the
price is indeed reacting to the resistance as we already got a double
rejection, which might end up in a double top pattern.
The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish
setup and position for a rally back into the 0.6500 resistance.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
AUDUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a trendline that
should confirm the bearish setup in case the price breaks below it. In fact, we
can expect more sellers to pile in on a break while the buyers should fold,
ultimately increasing the bearish momentum. The buyers, on the other hand, are
likely to lean on the trendline to position for a rally into the 0.65
resistance.

Upcoming Events

Today it’s all about the NFP report which is the only one the Fed will
see before its next rate decision. The US jobs data going into the NFP was
strong, so the expectations might be skewed to the upside.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Key levels in play 0 (0)

US:

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
    expected at the last meeting.
  • The macroeconomic projections were revised higher
    as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot
    showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end
    of the year with less rate cuts in 2024.
  • Fed Chair Powell
    reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully as
    they are trying to find the optimal level of rates. Powell also added that the
    soft landing is not the base case at the moment, although they are aiming for
    it.
  • The latest US Core PCE
    came
    in line with expectations with disinflation continuing steady.
  • The labour market
    displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid as seen also last
    week with a strong beat in Jobless Claims and this
    week with the beat in Job Openings.
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI beat
    expectations while the ISM Services PMI came in
    line with forecasts in another sign that the US economy remains resilient.
  • The miss in the ADP report
    yesterday led to some USD weakness which might continue if the data in the next
    couple of days misses as well.
  • The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike again at
    the moment.

UK:

  • The BoE kept interest rates unchanged at the last meeting.
  • The central bank is leaning more
    towards keeping interest rates “higher for longer” but it kept a door open for
    further tightening if inflationary pressures were to be more persistent.
  • Key economic data like the latest employment report showed a very high wage growth
    despite the rising unemployment rate, but the latest UK CPI missed expectations across the board.
  • The latest UK PMIs showed further contraction, especially in the
    Services sector.
  • The market doesn’t expect the BoE to
    hike anymore.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the GBPUSD pair
pulled back yesterday into the blue 8 moving average where
it’s finding some resistance. From a risk management perspective, the sellers
would have a much better risk to reward setup if the price pulled back all the
way up to the 1.2398 resistance where we
can find the confluence with the trendline, the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. The buyers, on the other hand, will need the
price to break above the trendline to turn the trend around.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg
lower diverged with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we got a pullback into the minor trendline around the
1.2180 level where we can also find the Fibonacci retracement levels. The price
started to struggle here as the sellers are stepping in with a defined risk
above the trendline and positioning for more downside. The buyers will need the
price to break above the trendline to pile in with greater conviction and
target the resistance around the 1.2308 level.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
market structure on this timeframe is bullish as the price made a new higher
high yesterday. The buyers are likely to pile in around the 1.2100 support with
a defined risk below it to target a break above the trendline and ultimately
the 1.2308 resistance. More conservative buyers may want to wait for the price to
take out the trendline first before joining the rally. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the 1.2100 support to
position for further downside and new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the Jobless Claims report, which
continues to show a solid labour market and given the reaction to the miss in
the ADP yesterday, we can expect a rally in case of a miss and a drop in case
of a beat. Tomorrow, it will be the time for the NFP report which is the only
one the Fed will see before its next rate decision.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

US September Challenger layoffs 47.46k vs 75.15k prior 0 (0)

  • Prior 75.15k

US-based employers announced 46,457 job cuts last month, down roughly 37% from the 75,151 job cuts announced in August. However, this is still a roughly 58% increase in layoffs compared to September last year and continues the trend of rising job cuts i.e. early signs of softening in the labour market.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

EURUSD Technical Analysis – These levels will be key for the next direction 0 (0)

US:

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
    expected at the last meeting.
  • The macroeconomic projections were revised higher
    as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot
    showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end
    of the year with less rate cuts in 2024.
  • Fed Chair Powell
    reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully as
    they are trying to find the optimal level of rates. Powell also added that the
    soft landing is not the base case at the moment, although they are aiming for
    it.
  • The latest US Core PCE
    came
    in line with expectations with disinflation continuing steady.
  • The labour market
    displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid as seen also last
    week with a strong beat in Jobless Claims and this
    week with the beat in Job Openings.
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI beat
    expectations while the ISM Services PMI came in
    line with forecasts in another sign that the US economy remains resilient.
  • The miss in the ADP report
    yesterday led to some USD weakness which might continue if the data in the next
    couple of days misses as well.
  • The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike again at
    the moment.

EU:

  • The ECB hiked by 25 bps at the
    last meeting and added a line in the statement that hinted to the end of the
    tightening cycle.
  • President Lagarde didn’t push back against the idea
    of them having reached already the terminal rate and highlighted the slowdown
    in Eurozone economy.
  • The Eurozone CPI missed
    across the board last week supporting the ECB’s stance.
  • The labour market remains
    very tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record low levels.
  • Overall, the economic data lately has been showing
    signs of fast deterioration in the economy.
  • Most ECB members are leaning towards keeping rates
    higher for longer now.
  • The market doesn’t expect the ECB to hike anymore.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the EURUSD pair
has pulled back recently with the miss in the ADP report yesterday giving it a
bit of relief after a series of strong US data. From a risk management
perspective, the sellers would have a much better risk to reward setup shorting
from the resistance around
the 1.0620 level where we have the confluence with the
trendline, the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. The
buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break above the trendline to
change the trend around.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a divergence with the
MACD right
around the key 1.05 support. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum
often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we might see a pullback
into the previously mentioned 1.0620 resistance zone, so the buyers are likely
to pile around here to position for a rally into the resistance.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
market structure on this timeframe is bullish as the price has made a new
higher high and the moving averages have crossed to the upside. The buyers
should lean on the support around the 1.0495 level with a defined risk below it
to target the 1.0620 level. More conservative buyers may want to wait for the
price to break above the recent high at 1.0532 before joining the rally. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the
1.0495 support to pile in again and extend the drop to new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the Jobless Claims report, which
continues to show a solid labour market and given the reaction to the miss in
the ADP yesterday, we can expect a rally in case of a miss and a drop in case
of a beat. Tomorrow, it will be the time for the NFP report which is the only
one the Fed will see before its next rate decision.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

ECB’s Lane: Credit dynamic really has been quite weak 0 (0)

  • It is below what we would have expected last year

This is in part one reason why the ECB has to be careful so as to not tighten financial conditions any further, more so when economic conditions are also weakening considerably. From July: Eurozone firms‘ demand for credit falls to lowest on record in Q2

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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BOE’s Broadbent: It is an open question on whether there will be more rate hikes 0 (0)

  • There are clear signs that rate hikes are having an impact
  • But perhaps it may be that the effect is weaker than in the past or still delayed
  • Sees UK inflation reaching target in 2 years‘ time

The BOE is in a rather unenviable spot right now. They are starting to move to the sidelines but are worried that they may not have done enough in the inflation fight. Adding to that is a worsening economy amid the rise in recession risks and further tightening could risk a hard landing going into next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Key moment for the index 0 (0)

Yesterday we got another strong US jobs report as
the Job Openings data
beat expectations by a big margin. Coupled with the last week’s beat in Jobless Claims and this
week ISM Manufacturing PMI, the
market is starting to lose faith in a quick return to lower interest rates and
might even fear higher rates. Overall, the data is still supporting the soft
landing narrative but the market shouldn’t be priced for neither higher rates
nor a hard landing.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite remains under pressure and the fall back below the key support is a bad
omen for the buyers. The buyers should keep on defending this level and target
a rally into the downward trendline, but if
the price breaks the low, the sellers are likely to pile in even more
aggressively and take the price into the next support around the 12274 level.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite bounced on the key support and pulled back into the red 21 moving average and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
where it found strong sellers waiting for another leg lower. The buyers will
need the price to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level to turn
around the trend and target new highs.

Nasdaq Composite
Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see the low
around the 12965 which is going to be the last line of defence for the buyers
and might turn into a double bottom pattern.
This is where we are likely to see the buyers stepping in with a defined risk
below the low to position for a rally into the highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the low to pile in even more
aggressively and extend the drop into the 12274 support.

Upcoming
Events

Today on the agenda we have the ADP report and the
ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we will see the latest Jobless Claims data, which
continues to show a solid labour market. Finally on Friday, it will be the time
for the NFP report which is the only one the Fed will see before its next rate
decision.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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ECB’s de Guindos: We will continue to follow a data-dependent approach 0 (0)

  • Economic activity likely to remain subdued in the coming months
  • Labour market remains resilient
  • Underlying price pressures remain strong

Just some token remarks there by de Guindos. Nothing that we don’t already know from the ECB previously.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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