Bitcoin
remains rangebound on a key support level as the outlook is turning more and
more bearish given the headwinds from global growth and tight monetary
policies. All the positive news eventually gets faded, which is another sign
that the big picture trend remains bearish. Amid this high uncertainty, the
technicals can help with risk management and short-term directional plays.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin
recently sold off into the key 25231 support where it
bounced soon after. The price then rallied into the red 21 moving average where it
found strong sellers. The bias remains bearish as the price keeps on printing
lower lows into the support, which should eventually lead to a breakout. If the
price breaks above the 21 moving average though, we might see a rally back into
the 28400 resistance, where the sellers will be waiting to sell at even better
prices.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we are
currently trading withing a range between the 25231 support and the 26600
resistance. The best strategy in such instances is to just sit tight and wait
for a breakout, but one can also “play the range” by buying at support and
selling at resistance. A break to the upside should take Bitcoin into the 28400
resistance, while a break to the downside should lead to a selloff into the
21509 support.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a level of interest at 26024. In the short term, we might see a rally into
the 26600 resistance in the price breaks above it, but the sellers are likely
to pile in here with a defined risk above it to target the 25231 support.

Upcoming Events

This week we have many important events. Today is the US
CPI Day, which is expected to show an increase in headline inflation due to
higher energy prices but further disinflation in the core measure. Tomorrow, we
will see the latest US Jobless Claims, PPI and Retail Sales data. Finally on
Friday, we get the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Strong
data is likely to tip the market expectations on the more hawkish side and
support the USD, ultimately weighing on Bitcoin. On the other hand, weak
readings should have the opposite effect, unless they are very bad, in which
case the recession fears are likely to send Bitcoin lower anyway.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
  expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency
  and kept all the options on the table.
• Inflation measures
  since then showed further disinflation.
• The labour market
  displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid.
• Overall, the economic data started to surprise to
  the downside lately.
• Last week the ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims
  surprised to the upside.
• The Fed members are leaning more towards a pause in
  September.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike at the September
  meeting, but there’s now a 50/50 chance of a hike in November.

New Zealand:

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged at the
  last meeting while stating that it will remain at the restrictive level for the
  foreseeable future to ensure that inflation comes down back to target.
• The recent New Zealand inflation and employment data surprised to the upside but
  the PMIs are in contraction with the Services PMI recently plunging into contraction.
• The wage growth has also missed
  expectations and it’s something that the central banks are watching closely for
  second round effects.
• The New Zealand Retail Sales beat expectations although the data
  remains deeply negative.
• The RBNZ is expected to keep the
  cash rate steady at the next meeting.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the recent
bounce in the NZDUSD pair is struggling at the red 21 moving average where
the sellers are likely to be stepping in to position for further downside. The
bearish momentum seems to be waning and we might see a bigger correction into
the 0.60 handle. If the US data comes out much stronger than expected though,
the pair should keep on depreciating.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a divergence with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback should be the 0.60 resistance, but the
buyers will need to break above the 0.5930 level to start targeting the 0.60
handle. In fact, we can expect the buyers to pile in around the 0.59 handle
where we have also the confluence with the
red 21 moving average. If the price breaks through the support though, the
sellers are likely to extend the drop into the 0.5860 low.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see clear
support and resistance levels. The buyers should buy the supports, while the
sellers should sell the resistances. The current price action into the 0.5900
support seems to be forming a bullish flag
pattern, so that will also be something to watch.

Upcoming Events

This week we have many important events beginning with
the US CPI tomorrow, which is expected to show an increase in headline
inflation but further disinflation in the core measure. On Thursday, we will
see the US Jobless Claims, PPI and Retail Sales data. Finally on Friday, we get
the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Japan senior lawmaker says took Ueda’s remarks to mean BOJ will continue with easing
• BOE’s Breeden: The risks to inflation around August forecast are to the upside
• UK August payrolls change -1k vs 97k prior
• Germany September ZEW survey current conditions -79.4 vs -75.0 expected
• Germany August wholesale price index +0.2% vs -0.2% m/m prior
• Spain August final CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelim
• US August NFIB small business optimism index 91.3 vs 91.9 prior
• Bitcoin jumps as BOE policymaker says better to regulate crypto under financial services

Markets:

• USD leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.290%
• Gold down 0.5% to $1,911.96
• WTI crude up 0.7% to $87.88
• Bitcoin up 3.8% to $26,034

It was a relatively slow and quieter session in European trading today, after all the fuss surrounding the surge in the Japanese yen and bond yields yesterday.

The dollar, which saw a drop yesterday, is seen advancing on the day as we see USD/JPY also move back towards the 147.00 mark. EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.0710 while GBP/USD is down 0.4% to 1.2460, following a less than ideal UK jobs report for the BOE.

In the equities space, risk tones were calmer earlier but are seen retreating slightly now with US futures moving lower. That is keeping European indices in check after slight gains at the open, with the bond market looking little changed on the day.

All in all, it was a bit more of a placeholder session, as the countdown to the US CPI report tomorrow continues.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

To be fair though, there were a couple of light bids leading up to the sudden jump if you zoom in to the minute-chart. But the big spike came right on the dot as BOE policymaker Breeden said that it would be better to regulate cryptocurrencies under the financial services perimeter rather than under gambling.

After what looked like a breakdown in the charts yesterday, dip buyers are certainly making a stand now in Bitcoin as we see price erase the losses from the day before and then some. The $25,000 mark appears to be where the line is being drawn for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
  expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency
  and kept all the options on the table.
• Inflation measures
  since then showed further disinflation.
• The labour market
  displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid.
• Overall, the economic data started to surprise to
  the downside lately.
• Last week the ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims
  surprised to the upside.
• The Fed members are leaning more towards a pause in
  September.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike at the
  September meeting, but there’s now a 50/50 chance of a hike in November.

Australia:

• The
  RBA kept its cash rate unchanged as widely expected as they are
  seeing signs that the economy is indeed slowing and that will help to return
  inflation back to target.
• The
  data is supporting the RBA’s stance as the Australian jobs, wages and inflation data all missed expectations
  lately.
• The
  Australian PMIs also missed expectations remaining
  in contraction.
• RBA
  Governor Lowe in his speech reaffirmed that if inflation remains sticky, they
  will have to tighten more.
• The
  market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting as well.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD seems to
be stuck in a range between the 0.6370 support and the
0.6500 resistance. The recent bounce is getting rejected by the red 21 moving average as the
sellers are stepping in here to position for further downside. A break above
the moving average should lead to a rally into the 0.65 resistance.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we had a divergence with the
MACD recently
which is usually a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. The target of the pullback should be the 0.66 handle but if the US
data comes out much stronger than expected, then the pair should keep on
dropping and make new lower lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have clear levels where the price should react to. A break above the current
resistance around the 0.6440 level should see more buyers piling in to target
the 0.6500 resistance. Another option for the buyers with an even better risk
to reward ratio would be to wait for the price to pull back into the 0.6410
support and position for a rally into the 0.65 resistance with a defined risk
just below the level.

The sellers, on the other hand, are likely
to step in at the 0.6440 resistance with a defined risk above the level to
position for a break below the 0.6410 support and eventually a break below the
0.6370 level.

Upcoming Events

This week we have many important events beginning with
the US CPI tomorrow, which is expected to show an increase in headline
inflation but further disinflation in the core measure. On Thursday, we will
see the latest Australian Jobs report followed by US Jobless Claims, PPI and
Retail Sales data. Finally on Friday, we get the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The reading is once again below the 49-year average of 98, with this being the 20th month in a row at that. NFIB does note that Q3 economic conditions are looking good with September „needing to be an exceptionally bad month to
negate the solid economic data that came out of July and August“.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Japanese yen surge on Ueda remarks the big story to start the new week
• Japan’s Matsuno: Monetary policy specifics are up to BOJ to decide
• European Commission cuts Eurozone growth forecast amid building recession risks
• PBOC to tighten scrutiny on bulk dollar purchases of $50 million and above – report
• Yuan exchange rate has solid basis to stay reasonably stable – PBOC
• China August M2 money supply +10.6% vs +10.7% y/y expected
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 8 September CHF468.9 bn vs CHF 467.6 bn prior
• Kremlin confirms North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to visit Russia in the coming days

Markets:

• AUD leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• US 10-year yields up 4.6 bps to 4.302%
• Gold up 0.3% to $1,924.28
• WTI crude down 0.6% to $86.96
• Bitcoin down 1.1% to $25,609

The major story so far today remains the surge in the Japanese yen, following weekend comments by BOJ governor Ueda touting a „quiet exit“ from the current ultra easy monetary policy settings.

As European trading began, USD/JPY extended losses by over 1% in a drop to 145.90 before recovering back to around 146.70 levels now – still down by 0.7% or 100 pips on the day.

The unwinding in USD/JPY longs also led to a notable decline in the dollar across the board. The antipodeans benefited the most amid a jump in the Chinese yuan as well, helped by some support from Beijing.

AUD/USD is up 0.9% to 0.6430 and keeping at the highs while NZD/USD is up 0.6% to 0.5915, also maintaining gains for the most part.

The euro and pound are only marginally higher against the dollar with EUR/USD up 0.2% to 1.0720 and GBP/USD up 0.4% to 1.2510 with the latter hoping to stop a run of four straight consecutive daily losses.

As the yen legged higher, it comes as 10-year JGB yields also hit the 0.70% threshold and that is underpinning bond yields in general. 10-year Treasury yields are up 4.6 bps to 4.302%, so that is also one to watch as it threatens the August highs. The dollar might be pressed lower now but higher yields could yet be a saving grace for the greenback.

In the equities space, stocks are capitalising on the softer dollar with European indices and US futures holding a slight advance. But we’ll see if there is appetite to keep that going through the week, with the US CPI report coming up on Wednesday.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been more than two decades but it still feels surreal to think back to the events that transpired on this day in 2001. It was a tragic day by all accounts and the world was never the same after. To those who have experienced the tragedy of it all, I continue to offer my heartfelt wishes and condolences to those who have suffered the pain and loss.

I remember watching everything take place on the news and when I woke up the next day, I had to question if it was all a dream or if this truly happened. Life was a simpler time back then but it doesn’t take away from the meaning and the significance of the role of the attacks in the geopolitical arena.

In a time where social media has made information and mass communication are so readily available, one can only wonder if we are truly better off and better prepared to prevent something like this from ever happening again. I would like to think so. And hopefully, that is certainly the case. That being said, the rapid evolution of technology can also be a dangerous thing. So, here’s to hoping that we do learn and use it the right way for the future.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It will be Kim’s first international visit in more than four years and the first since after the Covid pandemic. His last trip was also to Russia back in 2019, in a meeting with Putin after the collapse of North Korea’s nuclear disarmament talks with the US (Trump was the president at the time).

This time, Kim will also be visiting Vladivostok for the 8th Eastern Economic Forum in Russia – in which China vice premier, Zhang Guoqing, has confirmed his attendance.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last week the US data surprised to the upside with
the ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims beating
expectations by a big margin. The market didn’t like the strong data as it
raises the chances of another rate hike in November. In fact, the Nasdaq
Composite sold off following the PMI beat with some consolidation thereafter,
even after the strong Jobless Claims. The market seems to be trading on “good
news is bad news” at the moment, but the outlook remains uncertain.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite retested the broken trendline and sold
off following the strong US data release into the red 21 moving average where it
bounced as the buyers stepped in. The moving averages are still crossed to the
upside, so the bias remains bullish, but the buyers will need some key
breakouts to keep on rallying.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is
trading around the minor upward trendline which is defining the bearish flag pattern.
A break below the trendline should confirm the pattern and lead to a fall into
the 13174 support. The
buyers are likely to step in here targeting a break above the 13850 resistance
to invalidate the bearish setup.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the key 13850 resistance zone that is likely to decide where we will go
next. In fact, a break above the resistance zone and the downward trendline
should invalidate the bearish setup and give the buyers more conviction to
target a new higher high. The sellers, on the other hand, are likely to pile in
here around the resistance with a defined risk above it and target a selloff
into the 13174 support.

Upcoming
Events

This week is likely to be a volatile one given the
release of top tier economic indicators including the US CPI. In fact, on
Wednesday we get the US CPI report, which is expected to show an acceleration
in the headline inflation but a deceleration in the core measure. On Thursday,
we get the US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data. Finally, we conclude
the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report on Friday.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.