It’s been yet another lackadaisical session mostly and while there is some dollar softness, it isn’t anything that stands out when put into context of the moves since Friday last week. Trading sentiment this week has been mired by a general sense of waiting and wondering, as market players are without any big data or Fedspeak to work with.

If not for the surprises by the RBA and BOC, it would’ve been an even more arduous wait and fewer moves in markets in general.

As things stand, Fed funds futures are pricing in 69% odds that Powell & co. will not hike rates next week. The other 31% are for a 25 bps move. Even though that feels like markets are favouring the former outcome, it must be said this is about as close to a coin flip as you can get on Fed odds.

Historically, policymakers have been clear on what they will do next for the most part. It was only in recent months, that we saw markets being unsure of whether the Fed will hike more aggressively or less aggressively. But this will be the first in this cycle in which the debate is between leaving rates unchanged and to hike rates once more.

The optics is going to be rather important, whatever the Fed may decide. A move to the sidelines means there is a chance that the Fed may be done. Meanwhile, hiking again suggests that they could pause at the next meeting but that’s no guarantee – similar to what we’re seeing now.

In any case, markets will only have a day to firm up their convictions ahead of the main event next week. Because whatever you might be thinking now, it will all change once we get to the US CPI data on Tuesday.

If there are further signs of inflation slowing down significantly, that will be a major boost for those expecting the Fed to „skip“ a meeting. It will also be a rather big boon for risk assets, all things being equal.

On the flip side, if inflation pressures are still rather persistent, there might be some angst and anxiety in markets as they prepare for another potential rate hike by the Fed.

In terms of Fed communication, it was a bit of a late message from the likes of Jefferson and Harker to call to „skip“ a rate hike at the June meeting. It was right before the blackout period and there were no other speakers on the agenda, leaving markets unsure if this was indeed a coordinated message from the central bank or just personal opinion.

The fact that markets can’t really make up their minds when looking at the odds in Fed funds futures, tells us that they are going to leave it up to fate the US CPI data next week before placing more heavy bets.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The most recent NFP report, released last Friday, once again
outperformed expectations, extending its impressive winning streak to 14. However,
upon closer analysis, the report revealed some less favourable details. The
unemployment rate experienced a significant increase from 3.4% to 3.7%, marking
the largest month-over-month jump since the pandemic began. Additionally, there
was a slight decline in the average workweek hours, which could indicate
potential layoffs being considered by employers. Overall, the report provided a
mix of information that could be interpreted differently by individuals.

Shifting focus to the US ISM Services PMI, it came in considerably lower than
anticipated at 50.3, narrowly missing the threshold for contractionary
territory. The employment sub-index indicated a contraction, while the prices
paid sub-index saw a substantial decrease, returning to levels last observed in
May 2020. As a result, the market responded by further reducing the likelihood
of additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Furthermore, the recent
surprising rate hikes by the RBA and the BoC may have influenced risk
sentiment, leading to concerns that the Fed might follow suit. However, it is
unlikely given that the Fed typically aligns its actions with market pricing,
and we should also take into account that the CPI report has not yet been
released.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, the GBPUSD is trading again
within the range between the 1.2340 support and
1.2530 resistance. Just a week ago it looked like the pair was topping out as
we also had the Head and Shoulders pattern
as an extra bearish signal, but now that the moving averages are on
the verge of another crossover to the upside, the bias is murkier. Maybe this
was just a bigger and more complex pullback.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, the levels to watch are of
course the resistance and support of the range. Given the uncertainty in the
markets, it may be better to wait for a breakout supported by a fundamental
catalyst. The buyers, should pile in if the price breaks above the 1.2550
level, while the sellers should jump onboard in case the price breaks below the
1.2300 handle.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see the short
term price action within the range and we can notice that there isn’t much to
glean from this chart as support and resistance levels are confusing as they
generally are in rangebound markets. There’s just a possible trendline where
the price may bounce off of or break through and give the buyers and sellers an
extra opportunity to enter in line with their biases before the actual range
breakouts.

The US
Jobless Claims report is worth monitoring today in terms of potential risks,
although its impact on the market is not anticipated to be substantial unless
there are significant deviations from the expected number:

• If the
  report exceeds expectations by a significant margin, it could spark some
  hawkish expectations in the market. This could suggest that inflation may
  remain elevated due to a tight labour market, potentially influencing the
  market’s outlook.
• Conversely,
  if the report falls short of expectations by a significant margin, it
  should reaffirm the Federal Reserve’s neutral stance. Unless accompanied
  by a high Consumer Price Index (CPI), the market might even factor in the
  end of the interest rate hiking cycle.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

A little higher, a little lower, and all around we go. That’s the mood in markets this week as we continue the slow countdown to the US CPI and Fed decision next week. The dollar is now slightly lower on the day as major currencies are stretching their previously narrow ranges in European morning trade.

EUR/USD is up 0.3% to 1.0730 after hanging around near 1.0700, with large option expiries in play at the figure level. USD/JPY remains down 0.2% to 139.80 and not much changed from Asia trading, as large option expiries at 140.00 are also serving to contain price action despite slightly higher Treasury yields.

Elsewhere, the dollar is seeing light declines against the pound and loonie, with the latter looking to contest key support as outlined earlier here. The antipodeans are holding higher with some improvements in the risk mood as Nasdaq futures are now up 0.1% after having been down around 0.3% to start the session.

AUD/USD is up 0.5% to 0.6680 levels but continues to stay below key resistance from its 200-day moving average at 0.6690 for now:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The latest NFP report, released last Friday, once again
exceeded expectations, extending its impressive winning streak to 14. However,
upon closer examination, the report didn’t present particularly favourable
details. The unemployment rate saw a significant increase from 3.4% to 3.7%,
marking the largest month-over-month jump since the pandemic began.
Additionally, the average workweek hours showed a slight decrease, which is
often an indication that employers may be considering layoffs. All in all, the
report contained a mix of information that could be interpreted differently by
different individuals.

Moving on to the US ISM Services PMI, it came in much lower than
anticipated at 50.3, narrowly missing the threshold for contractionary
territory. The employment sub-index reflected a contraction, and the prices
paid sub-index experienced a substantial decrease, returning to the levels seen
in May 2020. Consequently, the market responded by further discounting the
possibility of additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Moreover, recent surprising
rate hikes by the RBA and the BoC may have influenced risk sentiment, leading
to concerns that the Fed might follow suit. However, it is unlikely given that
the Fed typically aligns its actions with market pricing, and we should also
consider that the CPI report has not yet been released.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, the EURUSD seems to be
bottoming out at the key 1.07 support level as
the price started to range around it and the market priced out hawkish
expectations for the June meeting. The bias remains bearish as the moving averages have
crossed to the downside and the trend is still downward. The possible double top at the
1.1033 high might indicate that we still have some room to the downside to
touch at least the 1.0533 neckline, but watch out for the price action in the
following days and after the CPI and FOMC next week.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, the price has broken out of
the falling channel as it started to range around the 1.07 support. The
resistance at 1.0760 stalled the rally after some Fed members hinted to a pause
in June. The selloff that came soon after was caused by the NFP report, but as
we mentioned previously, it wasn’t such a great deal and the EURUSD restarted
its rangebound price action.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a little box here where the EURUSD got stuck since the start of the week.
A breakout on either side may trigger some big moves but the levels to watch
should be the 1.0760 resistance and the 1.0635 support. If the buyers manage to
break above the resistance, then we may see the rally extending towards the 1.0845
level. On the other hand, if the sellers manage to break below the support, we
should see EURUSD trading at 1.0533 soon after.

The US Jobless Claims
report is the event to keep an eye on today in terms of risks, but its impact on the
market is not expected to be significant unless there are major deviations from
the expected number:

• If
  there is a significant beat in the report, it could trigger some hawkish
  expectations from the market as inflation may remain stuck at a higher level
  due to a tight labour market.
• Conversely,
  if there is a significant miss in the report, the market should validate the
  Fed’s neutral stance and, barring a hot CPI, may even price in the end of the
  hiking cycle.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Following a lower set of revisions, the euro area economy marginally contracted in Q1. Meanwhile, the annual reading is also revised lower to +1.0% from the +1.3% reading from the second estimate. The negative quarterly reading means that the euro area suffered a winter recession, but by the mildest of margins. Here’s the breakdown in terms of contribution to GDP for Q1:

• Household consumption -0.1%
• Government expenditure -0.3%
• Gross fixed capital formation +0.1%
• External balance +0.7%
• Changes in inventories -0.4%

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The AUD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest at the North American session begins. The major currencies are relatively scrunched together and price action has been up and down (or down and up) for many pairs. The USD was higher earlier, especially vs the EUR and GBP with prices of the EURUSD and the GBPUSD declining in the Asian session. However, each has seen a rebound and are trading to new session highs as NA traders enter for the day. Each is also extending above hourly MAs indicative of a more bullish technical bias.

Looking at the EURUSD it is extending above the near converged 100/200 hour MAs at the 1.0214 area. The earlier low could not extend below the low from yesterday and sellers turned to buyers pushing the pair higher toward the moving average levels (see the chart below).

Overnight, Chinese trade data for May reveals a contraction in exports by 7.5% compared to the same period last year, pointing to weakened overseas demand for locally produced goods. This decline follows three consecutive months of export growth as Chinese manufacturers rushed to fill pending orders after COVID-19 restrictions were eased. Additionally, imports experienced a 4.5% drop, albeit at a slower pace than in April. Surprisingly, China’s trade surplus reached a one-year low in May at 452B (vs 676B est and 618B last month), signaling challenges in the post-pandemic recovery for the world’s second-largest economy. These figures underscore the sluggishness in China’s trade sector and highlight the impact of subdued global demand on the country’s export-oriented economy.The People’s Bank of China set the reference rate for onshore yuan at its weakest (for CNY, highest for USD/CNY) since December 1 last year. The PBOC’s persistent affirming of the slide for the yuan is a form of stimulus for the country’s export sector. The data supports that.

Also in the Asian Pacific session, Australian economic growth data for the first quarter of 2023 a day after the surprise 25 bp hike indicated a lower-than-expected GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, missing the already modest estimates of 0.3%. On a year-on-year basis, the growth stood at 2.3%, below the expected 2.4% and the previous quarter’s 2.7%. The data reveals little indication of diminishing price pressures, as the GDP implicit price deflator rose by 1.9% in the March quarter and 6.8% compared to the same period last year. The components of growth show that domestic final demand and capital investment were the primary contributors, while consumption expenditure by households and the government was subdued. Net trade had a negative impact, and changes in inventories did not contribute to growth. The household saving ratio decreased, reaching its lowest level since June 2008, and productivity also declined (inflationary).

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) marginally upgraded its global growth outlook for 2023, citing lower energy prices and improving sentiment. Despite the positive forecast, headwinds remain, including tighter monetary policy and geopolitical tensions. U.S. stock futures dipped slightly, awaiting the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. The problem is that decision is not until next Wednesday. US CPI will be released on Tuesday next week ahead of the rate decision.

Oil prices experienced volatility in trading today as traders reacted to weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data, dampening hopes for increased oil demand from the world’s largest oil importer. Nevertheless, prices are higher in early US trading. Helping on the positive side is industry data released late yesterday indicating a larger-than-anticipated drawdown in crude inventories with crude showing a -1.710M drawdown vs an expected build of 1M. Gasoline saw a build of 2.417M vs +0.9M estimate as the summer driving season begins

A snapshot of the markets currently shows:

• Crude oil is up $0.71 at $72.45 after trading as low $71.01 overnight.
• Spot gold is trading down marginally by $-2.35 at $1960.91
• Silver is near unchanged $23.57
• Bitcoin is higher at $26,857 despite trouble with the SEC for Binance and Coinbase – two large crpyto exchanges. On Tuesday after the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Coinbase over operating an unlicensed exchange. The dip yesterday added on to steep losses seen on Monday that were sparked by similar charges brought by the SEC against rival Binance, but prices have rebounded from lows near $25,350.

In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are now trading marginally higher:

• Dow Industrial Average is trading up 27 points after yesterday’s 10.42 point rise
• S&P index is trading up 6 points after yesterday’s 10.08 point rise
• NASDAQ index is trading up 28 points after yesterday’s 46.99 point rise

In the European equity markets, the major indices are also mostly higher. The exception is Spain which is up the strong 0.94%, and Italy which is down 10.3%

• German DAX +0.09%
• Frances CAC +0.11%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.14%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.94%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.3%

In the Asian Pacific market today stock indices were mixed:

• Japan’s Nikkei came off of all-time highs on Tuesday and fell-1.82%
• Hang Seng index rose 0.80%
• Shanghai composite index rose 0.08%
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index fell -0.16%

In the US debt market yields are mixed/little changed

• 2 year yield 4.533% +0.8 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.861% +0.6 basis points
• 10 year yield 3.700% unchanged
• 30 year yield 3.867% -0.7 basis points

In the European debt market, benchmark 10 year yields are mixed:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Ethereum faced downward
pressure due to the recent shift towards a more hawkish stance in the markets,
with expectations of additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This impact
is attributed to Ethereum’s classification as a risk asset, as its correlation
with traditional markets and fundamentals has increased with wider adoption.
However, these hawkish expectations have started to diminish due to
disappointing economic data. Nevertheless, this week, Ethereum was further
affected by regulatory concerns raised by the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC).

Specifically, the SEC filed
a lawsuit against Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange,
and its Chairman Zhao on Monday. The allegations include mishandling customer
funds, providing false information to regulators, and misleading investors
about operational safeguards. The following day, the SEC also sued Coinbase for operating as an unregistered broker.
Despite these regulatory challenges, Ethereum experienced a significant rally,
possibly driven by expectations that increased regulation would strengthen the
overall cryptocurrency market or simply due to a technical rebound.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, Ethereum bounced on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level
and started to range between the 1900 level and the Fibonacci support. The
market got stuck in a range as the fundamentals remain increasingly bearish
with hawkish or recessionary expectations and attacks on the regulatory front.
The divergence with the
MACD
signalled a possible pullback or reversal coming when the price broke out of
the 2029 high and eventually that’s what we got.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can better see the current
rangebound price action and the yesterday’s rally soon after the SEC sued
Coinbase. There’s not much to glean from this chart as support and resistance
levels are messy and the markets are in a limbo until the next week’s CPI and
FOMC events.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we have some support zone
at the 1840 level where we can find the confluence with the 38.2% and 50%
Fibonacci retracement levels. We may find buyers leaning on this area with a
defined stop below it and target the 1920 high. The sellers, on the other hand,
are likely to pile in if the price breaks below the 1840 support zone and
target the 1681 level.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

• Once we’ve reached a peak on rates, they are likely to stay there for a while
• Not going to say how long that will be
• Some people in markets are pricing in rate cuts by end of the year, I’d be interested in how they are coming to that conclusion

There is a hint of sarcasm in his last point, as the narrative among central banks now is that they will keep rates higher for longer. As for the other remarks, they are consistent with what we have heard before from his colleagues.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• ECB’s Knot: Outlook for rate policy after July is unclear
• ECB’s Knot: Prolonged monetary tightening might still lead to stress in financial markets
• ECB’s Schnabel: The impact of our policy on inflation expected to peak in 2024
• BOJ’s Ueda: When we can foresee achieving price target, then will discuss exit policy
• Germany April industrial production +0.3% vs +0.6% m/m expected
• France April trade balance -€9.71 billion vs -€8.02 billion prior
• UK May Halifax house prices 0.0% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 2 June -1.4% vs -3.7% prior
• Turkish lira implosion shows no signs of stopping
• OECD sees limited improvement in global growth prospects as rate hikes set to weigh

Markets:

• AUD leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities mostly little changed; S&P 500 futures flat
• US 10-year yields down 1.3 bps to 3.687%
• Gold flat at $1,961.98
• WTI crude up 1.0% to $72.45
• Bitcoin down 0.2% to $26,900

It was a mostly sideways session as markets are lacking any appetite or real conviction, with the countdown to the US CPI and Fed decision next week starting a little early.

The lack of key economic releases this week isn’t helping with that, leaving traders and investors with little to work with. There were some ECB speakers during the session but they didn’t offer anything new.

The only real eye catching detail is perhaps in Turkey, with the lira imploding further in a over 7% drop against the dollar to fresh record lows.

Besides that, equities and bond market sentiment are looking rather subdued and disinterested. Meanwhile, major currencies were initially lacking any real direction but we are seeing the dollar sit mildly lower on the day currently.

That said, the ranges are leaving a lot to be desired as USD/JPY continues to stick around 139.30-50 mostly and EUR/USD also gyrating in and around the 1.0700 mark. AUD/USD is perhaps the notable dollar pair at the moment with a push to 0.6700, its highest levels in three weeks. The pair is now running up against key resistance and large option expiries on the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is losing a little bit of ground now in European trading and the aussie is taking full advantage of that, as it seeks to post a fifth consecutive day of gains today. AUD/USD is now trading above 0.6700 for the first time in three weeks and more importantly, buyers are attempting a break above the 200-day moving average (blue line) of 0.6690.

A break above that as well as the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing lower last month at 0.6680 will put the focus back on the 100-day moving average (red line). That is where buyers have failed to get above since April trading and it is seen at 0.6744 currently.

Beyond that, the April and May highs close to 0.6800 will offer the next big test for AUD/USD in trying to seek a further upside leg.

This week, the aussie has been helped by the RBA surprising with a rate hike. And with little else going on in markets, it continues to find legs in this latest run higher. The daily close is going to be crucial and while the dollar might only be pushing and pulling against other major currencies at the moment, this is one to watch as it is contesting key technical levels on the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.