The US dollar is a touch higher across the board ahead of non-farm payrolls in what’s been uninspired European and Asian trading. It’s a holiday in much of the world today so that means skeleton staffs on FX desks. The bond market is closed but US bond and equity futures are trading until 9:15 am ET.

Overall, it will be a strange one but if there’s a particularly strong or weak report, I don’t think it’s a gamechanger. The larger risks are to the downside after some softer jobs data this week. Lower non-farm payrolls would get the market thinking that a hard landing is coming and that the Fed can head to the sidelines.

The next big release is March CPI on April 12.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The New Zealand dollar has showed some life in an otherwise-dismal trading session today. The quiet trading is no surprise with much of the world closed for holidays.

The schedule in Europe has been quiet and it’s an unusual one where the jobs report is released with most markets closed. Futures will trade for a short time after NFP and the FX market doesn’t close for holidays but bonds are shuttered completely.

Greg earlier highlighted recent instances of non-farm payrolls on Good Friday and the overall takeaway is that markets had time to digest and were subdued by Monday.

There is also my non-farm payrolls preview. Overall, I’d be loathe to trade this one in a thin market and I don’t see have even a very strong or very weak number can be a real gamechanger.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Market picture

The crypto
market lost 0.5% in 24 hours, bouncing back to $1.18 trillion. This level has
become the centre of gravity around which the market has been moving all week.
So far, it looks like a pause and consolidation but not a breakout.

Bitcoin has
fared better this time around, losing 0.4% and remaining stuck at $28,000 for
the past three weeks. Notably, there has been no deep correction or noticeable
upward bias during this time. Bitcoin’s rally has stalled in the area that
provided meaningful support in May and early June last year. An upside move
would be a significant milestone to restore long-term investor confidence.

On the other
hand, a deeper drawdown below $27.0K or even to $25.5K may be required before a
move higher, which would fully correct the rise from the early March lows and
clear the way to the upside.

News background

According to
CCData, trading volumes on centralised crypto exchanges reached $3.81 trillion
in March, the highest since September 2022. Trading volumes on the cash market
rose 10.8% to $1.04 trillion, while the derivatives market jumped 32.6% to
$2.77 trillion.

Cryptocurrencies
will reduce transaction costs for remittances by 97%, according to a study by
Coinbase. Americans sending money overseas collectively pay more than $12
billion in fees each year.

The market
capitalisation of the Tether stablecoin has surpassed $80 billion, rising by
$15 billion in the first three months of 2023 to a record high since May 2022.

This article was written by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

I posted last month how the US non-farm payrolls had come in above estimates for 10 straight months previously and coming into today, it is 11 months in a row now that the data has beat expectations. That is quite an impressive feat.

The estimate this time around for the March figure is +239K on the headline, so we’ll see if there will be any further hiccups after the softer set of numbers from the US throughout the week so far.

But either way, don’t expect the start of the Easter break to be a quiet one even if most European (and other) markets are closed today. The Fed outlook, bond market focus, and dollar sentiment are all extremely sensitive factors impacting trading sentiment at the moment and they will all come into play via the jobs report later.

That will make for a dicey end to the week especially with the bond market sitting on edge.

• Preview: March non-farm payrolls by the numbers

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• There is a broadening trend where rising inflation is reflected in wages
• Job market tightening is laying the groundwork for wages to rise further
• Hopes that inflation target can be achieved together with rising wages

Kuroda’s term as governor of the Japanese central bank will come to an end tomorrow. It is rather unfortunate that they haven’t managed to achieve much else during his tenure, with negative interest rates and ultra easing policy being the cornerstones of what was needed amid economic and demographic challenges in the past decade.

But he is at least setting up the platform for his successor, Kazuo Ueda, to perhaps be able to launch Japan out of the existing policy cycle – something which looked like an impossible scenario before the Covid pandemic.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 77.77k

Compared to the same month last year, jobs cuts are up by 319% as this is the third straight month running that US-based employers have planned more layoffs than in the same month a year earlier. Challenger notes that:

“We know companies are approaching 2023 with caution, though the economy is still creating jobs. With rate hikes continuing and companies’ reigning in costs, the large-scale layoffs we are seeing will likely continue.“

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• All eyes stay on the bond market
• Reminder: Most European (and other) markets will be off tomorrow
• ECB’s Lane: May decision will depend on three factors
• Japan PM Kishida reportedly not seeking imminent change to monetary policy
• Germany February industrial production +2.0% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• Germany March construction PMI 42.9 vs 48.6 prior
• UK March Halifax house prices +0.8% vs -0.3% m/m expected
• UK March construction PMI 50.7 vs 53.5 expected

Markets:

• CHF leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities slightly higher; S&P 500 futures flat
• US 10-year yields down 0.6 bps to 3.281%
• Gold flat at $2,020.04
• WTI crude down 0.3% to $80.36
• Bitcoin down 0.8% to $27,920

It was a quiet session as European traders are taking it slow and easy ahead of the Easter holiday starting tomorrow.

There is still a sense of trepidation but it seems like we will have to look to Wall Street to realise any of the caution and fear before the US jobs report on Friday.

The dollar was largely steadier and did little as major currencies also saw rather poor appetite for trading on the session. The aussie and kiwi were the laggards but that carried over from Asia as equities remain more tepid mostly.

European indices are holding slight gains but they aren’t indicative of much after a retreat in the past two days, with the DAX and CAC 40 indices being held back at the highs for the year earlier this week.

The bond market is still the key spot to watch and all eyes are on 10-year Treasury yields to see if the break below the 3.30% threshold can be sustained. If anything else, this has been very much a placeholder session before US trading today and the key risk event tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In nearly one
month, the Finance Magnates Africa Summit (FMAS:23) will officially be underway
in South Africa. The biggest event of the year will be hosted out of the
world-famous Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg, taking place on May
8-10, 2023. The summit will be of particular note for crypto and forex traders
looking to explore potential brokers in Africa.

Africa has seen
a surge in trading activity and the arrival of leading global brokers and
crypto providers. This is hardly surprising given the popularity of these trading
instruments. With the biggest brands all under one roof for FMAS, the timing
has never been better for traders to interact and engage.

If
you have not already done so, see what all the hype is about in Sandton this
May and register
for FMAS:23 today

Forex
and Crypto Traders of Africa Unite

Every FM event
has included an extensive focus on proper trading techniques, demos, the
release of new and exciting trading technologies and platforms for users, and
much more. This will include FMAS:23, showcasing a dedicated content stream
that is tailored towards both forex and crypto traders.

Reasons for
Forex and Crypto Traders to Attend FMAS:23

·Learn about
new trading technologies, platforms, techniques ·

A chance to
engage directly with leading traders, brokers, individuals

·An opportunity
to meet, network with other traders

·Workshops and
trading strategies available on offer for free

Furthermore, FMAS:23
is poised to take retail trading trends to the next level, curated specifically
for the African continent. This also includes a growing swath of potential traders
who are looking to get started, with an opportunity to learn and engage with the best.

Nowhere else do
attendees have the opportunity to speak directly with so many leaders in one
place in Africa. Individuals can also expect to learn about and engage with the
biggest brands from the forex and crypto space.

The event will spotlight
2.5 days of sessions, workshops, panels, discussions, and more, touching on
every corner of the retail trading industry. FMAS:23 is expected to bring in
upwards of 2,000 attendees, 70 exhibitors, and 50 speakers.

To top this all
off, the event will also feature a legendary closing party for all attendees,
complete with live music, entertainment, and much more. This is one event you
will not want to miss. Stay tuned for more updates over the next few weeks as
the in-depth agenda takes shape, or simply to join the conversation surrounding
FMAS:23!

All prospective
attendees are invited to explore in-depth
agenda at length, which is already live and available for access.
See what sessions hold the most appeal – with so many angles and areas of
focus, there is something for everyone.

Do not miss out
on this incredible opportunity to live the life of luxury, fame, and network
with the best in the industry. See you in Johannesburg this May!

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the odds of a 25 bps rate hike have fallen to roughly 42% now with the remaining 58% probability siding with no change in interest rates. For some context, the balance of probabilities were more or less flipped at the end of last week after having seen the odds of no change fall drastically from around 85% at the start of last week here.

The decline in Treasury yields can be said to be two-fold. On the one hand, it indicates some degree of economic discomfort brought about by the tightening cycle. And it signals that traders are worried about worsening data points in the weeks/months ahead.

The fallout is largely coming after the banking turmoil, as that seems to be the checkpoint in which markets are adopting in determining that central banks have perhaps gone far enough with rate hikes.

On the other hand, falling rates could reflect the view that markets are anticipating the end to the Fed’s tightening cycle. In this regard, with growing concerns on the economic outlook, markets are sending a message that if policymakers keep going, something else is going to break.

The whole narrative above is still very much burgeoning but it may be one that takes over rather rapidly. I mean, we are already starting to see the switch around that bad news is indeed bad news now.

With the US jobs report in focus tomorrow, a poor reading there might be the biggest signal yet that rate hikes are taking a toll on the labour market and the economy. Coupled with softer inflation indicators so far this week, that might be reason enough for markets to chase a stronger pricing that the Fed will not hike in May.

While that may sound like bad news for the dollar, it is likely to be balanced out by a more risk-off wave across markets. These are certainly interesting times.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• It will depend on the inflation outlook
• Then, we have to diagnose the underlying dynamic, not just the overall inflation rate
• And through that, assess how quickly inflation is going to fall
• Thirdly, is how quickly these interest rate increases are restricting the economy and bringing down inflation
• For these reasons, we have no longer indicated or pre-announced what the expectation is for the next meeting or for the upcoming meetings
• The focus should be on understanding every data point that comes in
• If by May, the macro projections remain on track, then a rate hike will be appropriate
• Full transcript

That’s a comprehensive summary of the viewpoint by the ECB at the moment but the fact that most policymakers are angling the narrative to focus on core inflation does implicitly say that they are looking for another rate hike at least.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.