Mortgage Purchase Index (SA) Act: 232.6 Prev: 243.1
MBA 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Act: 5.74% Prev: 5.84%
US Mortgage Purchase Index Falls 4.3 Percent To 232.6 In July 1 Week
This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.
„There is currently no end in sight to the congestion in container shipping,“ said IfW’s Vincent Stamer, adding that traffic jams were also growing outside Chinese ports.
„For Germany and the EU, this affects overseas trade in particular, especially with Asia, where consumer electronics, furniture and textiles, for example, are shipped from.“
So much for the light at the end of the supply-chain tunnel!
This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.
Those calls for parity are set to increase volume!
This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.
The low in May was 1.0350 and the low in January 2017 was 1.0340.
Both of those critical levels are under heavy pressure at the moment as a broad US dollar bid emerges. A breakdown would be the lowest in the euro since 2003.
Today’s PMIs emphasize the growing risk of a recession in the eurozone. The dollar is broadly bid today but the euro is particularly soft as German 10-year yields fall 7 bps.
In terms of technical levels, it doesn’t get any bigger than this.
The low so far is 1.0352 in a quick fall from 1.0432 just over an hour ago.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Last week AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD,
GBPJPY, and GBPUSD all finished down for the week. The first trading day of
July was very negative across all these pairs with AUDUSD closing below the
0.6826 monthly support level.
AUDJPY Daily chart:
Monthly support at 90.72 and 90.29,
resistance at 97.29.
Weekly support at 87.28, resistance at
94.31, 95.73, and 96.87.
Daily support at
91.95 and 91.16, resistance at 92.64 and 94.02.
Price
declined down from the 94.02-31 daily/weekly resistance area last week. Will price continue to decline and retest the 90.72-29 monthly
support levels this week?
AUDJPY daily chart 03-July-2022
AUDUSD Daily chart:
Monthly support at 0.6722 and 0.6671,
resistance at 0.6826, 0.6967, and 0.6991.
Weekly support at 0.6722, resistance at
0.6828.
Daily support at 0.6722, resistance at
0.6850 and 0.6869.
Price broke below the 0.6826 monthly
support level last week. Will price continue to decline and test the 0.6722 and
0.6671 monthly support levels this week?
AUDUSD daily chart 03-July-2022
EURJPY Daily chart:
Monthly support at 137.49 and 134.12,
resistance at 141.04 and 145.68.
Weekly support at 139.99 and 137.52,
resistance at 144.24.
Daily support at 139.38 and 138.31,
resistance at 141.39.
Price formed a triple top at the 144.24
weekly resistance level last week. Will price continue to decline and retest
the 138.31 daily support level this week?
EURJPY daily chart 03-July-2022
EURUSD Daily chart:
Monthly support at 1.0340, resistance at
1.0462, 1.0522, and 1.0635.
Weekly support at 1.0349, resistance at
1.0727 and 1.0787.
Daily support at 1.0359, resistance at
1.0469, 1.0601, and 1.0627.
Price declined down from the 1.0601 daily
resistance level last week. Will price continue to decline and test the 1.0340
monthly support level this week?
EURUSD daily chart 03-July-2022
GBPJPY Daily chart:
Monthly support at 158.21, resistance at
168.01.
Weekly support at 159.98 and 158.06,
resistance at 168.42 and 168.72.
Daily support at 161.85 and 161.00,
resistance at 164.64 and 166.93.
Price declined below the 164.64 daily
support level last week. Will price continue to decline and test the 159.98
weekly support level this week?
GBPJPY daily chart 03-July-2022
GBPUSD Daily chart:
Monthly support at 1.1986, 1.1958, and
1.1645.
Weekly support at 1.2074 and 1.1933,
resistance at 1.2155, 1.2195, 1.2251, and 1.2667.
Daily support at 1.1933, resistance at
1.2161, 1.2332, and 1.2407.
Price declined and retested the 1.1986
monthly support level last week. Will price continue to decline and test the
1.1933 weekly support level this week?
GBPUSD daily chart 03-July-2022
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third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability
as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss
arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other
information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and
does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can
rely.
This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.
FX MAJORS WEEKLY OUTLOOK
UPCOMING EVENTS:
The week begins with a US holiday which should see lower liquidity and lower trading volumes and lead to some choppy price action. Nonetheless the very bad US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday and the revision in the Atlanta Fed GDPNow point to the US probably being already in recession. This coupled with a Fed that as of now cannot afford to pause or ease its policy tightening, should lead to more losses in risk assets and general risk aversion.
On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hike the cash rate by 50 bps bringing it to 1.35%. The RBA stated that it is committed to do what is necessary to bring inflation down to target over time and the aggressiveness will be decided based on incoming data. From a trading perspective, in a synchronised global slowdown a commodity currency like the AUD suffers no matter how much the RBA hikes. The recent AUD spikes on RBA hikes were all eventually faded as you can see in the AUD/USD chart below. Will this be another fade?
FX MAJORS
On Wednesday the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to show another dip in the survey as the deteriorating economic environment weighs on activity. Note though that the services sector is not as cyclical as the manufacturing sector. During tough times, consumers slash spending first on the pricey manufactured goods like cars, furniture and so on, but they will do that much slower for services as there’s always demand for medical care, transportations, and communications.
That’s why the ISM Manufacturing PMI is a better forecasting tool of future economic conditions even though services make up for 80% of consumer spending. The market will be more focused on the prices sub-index to see if there’s some cooling on the inflation side, but even if there is, unless it’s a huge one, the economy is still headed for tough times exacerbated by tightening monetary conditions by the Fed.
The FOMC Meeting Minutes shouldn’t offer anything new regarding future policy actions, as the Fed is trying to be as transparent as possible when signalling its future policy moves, even if it has to supposedly give some inside info to a journalist right before a decision. Also, a key change in a line in their latest statement suggests that the Fed will go hard on fighting inflation even if it will cause some job losses.
On Thursday we will hear from Fed’s Waller (Hawk, Voter) and Fed’s Bullard (Hawk, Voter). They may give some comments on recent economic data, which the market may focus on to take clues about the aggressiveness of their future policy moves. Right now, it’s a debate between a 50 or 75 bps hike at the upcoming July meeting, although the debate takes a less bigger stage compared to the tightening during a recession.
Finally on Friday, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the latest labour market report. The market expects job gains to start cooling with the consensus looking at a 295K gain compared to the previous 390K. Of course, the main focus of the market now is inflation and recession, so the market will move more in case of big losses in jobs or increases in average hourly earnings, with the latter weighing more in the debate whether the Fed will raise rates by 50 or 75 bps at the next meeting.
In the bigger picture though, we are clearly in a recessionary cycle coupled this time with an aggressive Fed tightening. For the Dollar Smile Theory, the US Dollar generally appreciates during a synchronised global slowdown or when the US economy outperforms its peers. The USD has been racking up in gains for a year now and there’s little indication it shouldn’t keep on doing so. The EUR/USD chart below is on the brink of a breakout lower, which would reinforce calls of a parity between the two major currencies.
FX MAJORS EUR/USD
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta.
This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.
According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalisation of the crypto market fell 9% over the week to $865bn. Bitcoin’s dominance index fell 0.3 points to 42.2%. The cryptocurrency fears index by Monday rose to 14 points.
Bitcoin has been under even pressure for almost all last week. A brief bounce at the beginning of the day on July 1 was more likely due to emotional excitement from the start of a new period (month, quarter, half-year) rather than fundamental changes in the situation. This rebound protected BTCUSD from updating lows.
Nevertheless, the global picture remains bearish as stock markets show no glimpses of tightening financial conditions by central banks. On the weekly charts, BTCUSD remains below the 200-week average, having failed a timid attempt to climb higher last week.
The RSI on the weekly charts remains oversold, which is a historical anomaly. Unfortunately for the bulls, this is not a sign of a better time to enter. Technically, a sustained return from extreme to norm would be a buy signal. The end of the second quarter of 2022 was the worst for bitcoin in 11 years.
FxPro’s Analysis: Bitcoin chart
Investor Michael Bury, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, admits that the current market situation is only the middle of a bearish cycle for BTC and equities.
Changpeng Zhao, chief executive of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, called the current collapse of the crypto market a good time to buy bitcoin for the long term. He said that if traders can hold out in the current bear market, their investments will multiply in the next bullish trend.
According to IntoTheBlock, retail investors have stepped up after bitcoin fell below $20,000. This category of cryptocurrency holders has been the most aggressive in buying during the recent sell-off.
El Salvador continues to buy bitcoins amid a falling market. This time, the country’s government spent about $1.5 million to buy 80 BTC at an average price of $19,000.
On the other hand, Bank of America reported that the bank’s customers investing in cryptocurrencies has fallen by more than 50% since November last year.
This article was written by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.
This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.
I posted earlier on ING also calling +50.
Also:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
The European Central Bank is about to lift off with tightening. We may get some further clues from DeG. ALso this week, and will be eyed for more, are European Central Bank minutes for the June meeting. Released on Thursday.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Price impact:
Info comes via Bloomberg (gated)
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.