• Henry Hub: the day after Freeport – By @andrepaltry
• Italy Economy Minister Franco Says Inflation Doesn’t Seem Likely To Decline Quickly
• NHK – Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Has Died
• ECB’s Visco: Rate Hike Bigger Than 25 Bps Could Be Appropriate In September
• Italian Industrial Output MoM Act: -1.1% Prev: 1.6% Fcst: -1.1%
• NFP won’t let me be.
• Taking a Deep Breadth: The ARMS/TRIN Index – by PiQ’s @moved_average
• France Trade Balance (SA) (May) Act: -13B Prev: -12.156B Fcst: -12.8B
• China gears up for disasters as flood season enters ‚critical period‘
• Bank Of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods Speech – Striking the balance
• The @Newsquawk Euro Market Opening note and podcast

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

My friend, and genuine expert in Nat Gas markets, Andrea Paltry has kindly written a note just for me to share on ForexLive

Henry Hub natural gas prices are currently trading down almost 15 cents with the most traded August ’22 contract at $6.143 MMBTU. The entire forward curve is down, with couple different trends to stress (see the graph below) compared to almost a month ago: (1) the strong backwardation we had a few weeks ago, if we consider all the Cal’22 (calendar’22) has gone away.

If we compare the week of May 4th with the current one, we see a change of the curve shape in Cal’22 from a decent backwardation to a flat/contangoed one; (2) the strong winter premium, the so-called ‘widow maker’ spread H/J 2023 (March/April’ 23) has almost halved from $1.9 to $1 right now. These elements tell us that the situation of Henry Hub market has become less tight, or better less precarious than a few weeks ago.

There have been a few factors having a huge impact on the Supply/Demand balance and the trajectory of End of Season storage. The first, and maybe the most important one, was the well-know Freeport explosion. On the technical side, Freeport was able to export 2.2 billion of cubic feet a day (bcf/d) in terms of LNG. This was a good percentage considering the maximum capacity of LNG exports for US this year just below 14 bcf/D. The pure math tells us that if (and this is a big IF) the shut down is for about 100 days (I personally think it’s just a floor), we have to add 220 bcf to our End of Season storage model. I personally was close to 3.2 trillion cubic feet (tcf) for that, now I’m more close to 3.45 tcf. I do think this is not a comfortable level by any chance, however 220-270 bcf give for sure a sense of relief to the market.

This ‘accident’ however had a huge impact also on TTF European gas prices, since 60% of overall Freeport export was directed to Europe. This is part of the TTF spike up to euro 185 MwH. The second is related to supply. During last couple weeks, we had a US lower 48 production increase, up to reach year to date high readings around 97.2 bcf. This is a decent production reading that I expected in Q3, however we need to understand if we are able to keep it during next weeks. The other components of the demand side remains pretty good. Even if not ‘off the charts’, power burns readings averaged well over 40 bcf/d, a good value weather adjusted.

This pattern clearly shows the fact that the classic gas to coal switching is not a factor anymore, even at pretty high prices.

Then the weather. Over the next couple weeks, we will have above normal demand in terms of cooling degrees as you may see in the charts below. Barring euro and gfs ensemble run-to-run variations, we will have well above 30 year average demand, with a strong ridge over the south for the next 3-5 days (see the third chart below). Then for the second week (first chart) we will have slightly above normal temperatures over most of the US. This will have a decent impact on the next 3-4 storage numbers.

And finally the storage number, yes the big issue. Over the last 3 weeks, EIA has given storage number difficult to interpret, not in line with my model (and with most of the analysts), showing first a ton of loosening, then, suddenly, yesterday a ton of tightening. Indeed, as you may see below, yesterday EIA printed 60 bcf injection, versus my forecast at 73 bcf (close to all analysts’ estimates). This number is pretty tight in any metric, week over week, versus the other 4 weeks’ average. And this poses further risk for End of season storage trajectory, even without Freeport, especially if we keep this hot pattern in US. So, what’s next? Maybe EIA will help us in the next coupe printing.

Andrea Paltrinieri
Associate Professor of Banking and Finance, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Natgasweather and Energy Working analyst

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

• Italy Economy Minister Franco Says Inflation Doesn’t Seem Likely To Decline Quickly
• Says Q2 Probably Saw „Robust“ GDP Growth In Italy
• Says Government Will Continue To Take Steps To Limit Impact Of High Energy Prices On Firms And Households

Nothing makes me feel more like the peak rate of inflation may be behind us quite like politicians finnaly coming around to the idea that inflation is a concern – 😉

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

PiQ’s (aka my outift) very own Ioan Smith (AKA @moved_average) has just written a piece for Capital, so it’s only right that I share it with you fine people too

Boris and Betty: Trading GBP amid political armageddon

Link to Full Piece

Summary…

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his resignation this morning after another wave of cabinet departures overnight made his position untenable.

He will remain in his post until a new leader is appointed no later than the Conservative Party’s annual conference in October. Parliament is due to break up for summer recess on July 21 so the process may have to be expedited. How long the process takes depends on how many candidates come forward for the role, but it will provide a period of headline risk affecting GBP/USD.

As he continued to lurch from one crisis to another the GBPUSD, (colloquially known as Betty from Cockney rhyming slang for cable – Betty Grable), took a battering.  As the political landscape in the UK deteriorated the currency bore the brunt of the upheaval.  A currency’s value is influenced by more than just economic factors like interest rates and inflation.  Even the most experienced market players can get outflanked by political influence on currency trading.

Knowing how politics works in relation to foreign exchange markets can be useful when it comes to your trading decisions. Countries that have strong political stability are far more attractive to foreign investors.  As such political stability can have a dramatic effect on currency rates. Serious inquiries into government conduct can destabilise the economy and weaken the currency.

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

For those interested, and I’m dubious that you should be overly interested..

Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Amsterdam on Wednesday and Thursday, 8-9 June 2022

As Newsquawk note..

As ever, given the time lag between the announcement and the publication of the accounts, traders will take greater guidance from recent data points and commentary from officials. Furthermore, when it comes to the issue of fragmentation, the ECB carried out an ad-hoc meeting to address the matter and therefore the account will offer little in the way of insight on that front.

Some Key Headlines:

• Most Measures Of Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Appeared To Be Still Broadly Anchored
• It Was Generally Considered That Stagflation Was An Unlikely Outcome
• Inflationary Pressures From Re-Opening In The Tourism Sector, Which Had Been Prominent In The May Figures, Were Likely To Continue In The Coming Months As Tourism Opened Up More Widely
• It Was Necessary To Avoid Gradualism Being Seen As Precluding Interest Rate Steps In Excess Of 25 Basis Points
• Taking The Indirect Effects Of Energy Prices Out Of The Core Inflation Projection Would Result In A 2.0% Projection For Core Inflation In 2024
• A Number Of Members Expressed An Initial Preference For Keeping The Door Open For A Larger Hike At The July Meeting

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Challenger Job Cuts (Jun) Act: 32.517K Prev: 20.712K

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

US Market Open: Constructive risk sentiment though action is choppy, GBP bid as Johnson to resign

Full note

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

Click below to read the full report and listen to the guys doing the podcast.

5 Things You Need to Know

• European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.5%, in a continuation of the constructive APAC handover though action remains choppy.
• Bourses, and US futures, were bolstered amid reports that China is considering USD 220bln of stimulus with unprecedented bond sales, via BBG.
• DXY takes a reprieve and resided sub-107.00 with antipodeans leading on sentiment and GBP bid amid the looming resignation of PM Johnson
• Reports on this dented Gilts, though the complex more broadly was briefly hit on the China stimulus headline
• Senior US State Department Official says no announcement on China tariffs is expected from Secretary of State Blinken at his meeting with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

• S&P Futures continues to look okay for the bulls but in this jittery market where close stops can easily be hit, and mediocre entry prices are exposed to choppy price action, we focus today on targeting a more attractive entry to our Long.
• See 3 trade ideas in the video and understand the technical logic behind the location of the stop loss, the take profit target and the reward vs risk
• Note the 2 price ranges in today’s technical analysis and see how we use them as anchors for our trades. Our video today provides a view and, still, bullish bias, for the Emini, as well as focuses on targeting a more attractive entry to your Long, or where existing Long trades may consider adding to their existing position
• Remember that in trading, and especially in trading futures, there is always a price to pay as we aim to gain a benefit. In this case, the lower entry price for our Long is not just handed to us for free. The risk is that the buy order will not get filled.
• Watch the following video and trade the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) at your own risk

Futher to the above video analysis, on the daily timeframe, watch for the S&P Futures or S&P Index (SPX) during normal trading hours, to possibly close the gap, in the near future, perhaps this week, reaching 3896.50.

S&P 500 Futures Analysis. Close this Gap on the Daily Chart?

Visit ForexLive.com for technical analysis perspectives on futures and more.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson defied growing calls for him to step down on Wednesday, telling lawmakers he would „keep going“.

„The job of a prime minister in difficult circumstances when you’ve been handed a colossal mandate is to keep going,“ Johnson told parliament. „And that’s what I’m going to do.“

The tick is buried deep!

The market now makes it a 91% chance that Boris Johnson is done as PM this year.

FWIW – in my useless opinion, I reckon Boris stays. If only to p*ss everyone off.

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

RoboForex,
an international financial broker, launches a new global promotion for its
clients and partners to celebrate the company’s 12th birthday. The promotion
will start on 1 July 2022 and will last until April 2023. The total prize pool
is $1,200,000.

 

64
money prizes for the total sum of $1,200,000 will be given away within 10
months from July 2022 up to and including April 2023. The prize money will be
available for withdrawal without any additional conditions right after it is
transferred to a winner’s account, or clients can use it as a deposit on their
trading account – they are free of their choice.

 

Robert
Stephenson, Chief Business Officer at RoboForex, is commenting: “We’re carrying
on our recent tradition and launching the global promotion again this year on
the occasion of the company’s 12th birthday. We’ve increased the total prize
pool and the number of prizes – 64 prizes from $1,000 to $20,000 will be given
away each month. We wish all participants good luck!”.

 

The
prizes are distributed among clients with winning Coupons, which can be
received for trading on RoboForex accounts or attracting new clients to the
company as its partner. A participant can receive up to three Coupons in
different categories each month.

 

Categories for
receiving Coupons

 

1. Trading on Prime accounts

 

Prime
is an account type with the best trading conditions available at the company:
spreads from 0 pips, $10 commission for the trading volume of $1 million, and
the leverage value up to 1:300.

 

Conditions
for receiving a Coupon:

 

·     
Deposit at least $300 to your account

·     
Perform at least 3* lots of trading operations per
month

 

*
– Only the positions in currency pairs and metals opened in the current month
are taken into account

 

[Open Prime account]

 

2. Attracting new clients as a RoboForex partner

 

RoboForex
partners have the opportunity to earn up to 84% of the broker’s revenue.

 

Conditions
for receiving a Coupon:

 

Partner
commission at month-end is at least $300

 

[Become partner]

 

3. CopyFX Traders

 

CopyFX
is an investment platform that allows you to receive a commission from other
traders for copying your transactions.

 

Conditions
for receiving a Coupon:

 

Make
the Top 30 of the best CopyFX Traders on Prime accounts in the current month

 

[Open CopyFX Prime account]

 

More
detailed information on the conditions and how to receive a Coupon can be found
on the RoboForex website.

 

Coupons
are already being granted! Join the promotion right now and take part in all
giveaways each month. Good luck!

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.