All aboard now. The dollar train is marching forward on the session, stretching gains across the board. The post-election momentum continues to play out and it’s still not the time to be guessing the top just yet. EUR/USD is now down 0.5% to 1.0508 as it corroborates with the inevitable pull towards 1.0500.

As mentioned in the linked post above, this is where the real test comes in for the pair as we look towards the end of this week. EUR/USD has been more or less stuck within a range of around 1.0500 to 1.1200 since the start of 2023. So, this makes the latest downside shove a major one to watch as price reaches a critical technical juncture.

Besides that, USD/JPY is once again trading back above 156.00 to 156.20 now. Then, we have GBP/USD slumping to its lowest since July – down 0.5% to 1.2635 currently. AUD/USD is also feeling the pressure as it is down 0.5% to 0.6455 currently and poised for its lowest daily close since April.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 20 bps (81% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 75 bps

• ECB: 34 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 145 bps

• BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 56 bps

• BoC: 33 bps (67% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 95 bps

• RBA: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 40 bps

• RBNZ: 55 bps (80% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/20% for a 75 bps cut)

2025: 170 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 13 bps (51% probability of 25 bps rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 44 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +1.8%; revised to +1.5%

Looking at the details, the drop here is largely driven by a decline in capital goods (-3.8%) and energy production (-1.5%). The former is seen declining back after a surge higher in August (+3.8%). The declines for the month are partially offset by increases in output for durable consumer goods (+0.5%) and non-durable consumer goods (+1.6%). The production for intermediate goods was flat on the month.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.3%
• GDP +0.9% vs +0.9% y/y second estimate
• Prior +0.6%

No changes to the initial estimates as this just reaffirms more modest growth in the euro area in Q3. But this is old news, as the focus is on the outlook next year with Trump tariffs set to come into the picture.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The picture in the major currencies space is not much changed at all from over five hours ago here. There have been some light extension of the ranges but overall, it’s more or less where we left off at the end of Asia trading. The dollar continues to stay more poised on the week, keeping its post-election momentum.

As mentioned earlier, USD/JPY and EUR/USD are two of the more interesting pairs as they are nearing key technical junctures.

The former is taking a run at the 155.00 mark for the first time since the end of July. On a firm break above the key level, there is little to no technical resistance in that pocket until the 160.00 level.

As for EUR/USD, the pair is down to test the 1.0600 mark with the April low of 1.0601 in play. For now, large option expiries at 1.0600 is also adding another defensive layer. But all of this is tentative up until we get to the US CPI report later.

That will be the next key risk event to watch with a stronger report potentially stirring up further dollar gains and a trigger to breach the technical levels above.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The puzzling weakness in
the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a
“sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we
might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a
potentially hot US CPI report today.

At the latest Fed’s decision,
Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two
bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps
cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.

The market though is
forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees
risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those
fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.

The market might have
already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there’s some
risk of a short-term „sell the fact“ reaction on a higher than
expected number.

It goes without saying that
a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing
immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury
yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft
print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one
can argue that it’s just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar
and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely
see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD is once again back at the 2-year high amid USD strength. The
buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets
into new highs, while the sellers will look for a rejection to position for a
drop back into the 1.38 handle.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong support zone around the 1.3825 level where the price
got rejected from several times in the past weeks. We may now have a range
between the 1.3825 level and the 1.3950 level. The market participants will
continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the rangebound price action makes all the
technical levels between the main support and resistance zones pretty weak. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• An ‚activist‘ approach means to cut less until it is clear inflation persistence has been purged
• I would be ready to cut rates in bigger steps when inflation risks have gone

As mentioned, she’s arguably the most hawkish member on the policy committee. So, these comments need to be taken with that in consideration. Her comments are also reflected by her bank rate vote last week here, as she was the only member to dissent against the rate cut decision.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

For some context, these subsidies did come to an end in May but were reinstated in August through to October to cope with the warmer weather. Subsequently, they were continued until this year-end but the funds had to be drawn from reserves in the budget for the fiscal year that started in April.

NHK is now reporting that the government is considering keeping these subsidies from January through to March next year. Amid a higher cost of living in key populated areas such as Tokyo, the measure above is mainly to try and combat rising consumer prices.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Leading online global trading provider HFM, a
unified brand name of HF Markets Group, is committed to helping traders level
up their trading by providing top-notch trading tools and services.

Traders only need to open a live account and complete their
registration to give their trading a boost, as they will instantly gain access
to free tools that help them learn about the latest developments in the
markets, make complex calculations in a few steps, stay updated on currency
pair movements and more.

Keep up with market movements

· Exclusive Analysis. Daily
market analysis fromHFM’s team of experts, and three free webinars
every week for live learning and Q&A.

· Economic
Calendar. Track upcoming global economic events and indicators
and anticipate how the market will move with HFM’s real-time, customizable
Economic Calendar.

· Trader’s
Board. Get breaking market news, identify the biggest currency
movers and gauge market sentiment.

Make complex calculations

· Calculators.
A wide range of trading calculators that are free, simple to use and
provide instant results for more informed trading decisions.

Enhance your trading platforms

· Premium
Trader Tools. These multi-platform tools can be downloaded and
installed on MT4/5 as an all-in-one package covering a range of requirements.

· One
Click Trading. Place trades with a single click with HFM’s
advanced One Click Trading functionality.

Trade and access your account anytime, anywhere

· The
HFM App. The financial markets are in the palm of your hand with
HFM App!

· myHF
Area. Clients can manage
their trading accounts, funds and trades with ease via their private myHF area.

Automate your trading

· VPS
Hosting. Protect automated strategies and benefit from reduced
trade latency with HFM VPS (Virtual Private Server).

· Autochartist
Tool. The first MT4/5 market scanner is fully customizable and
alerts traders to opportunities as soon as a chart or Fibonacci pattern is
identified.

· SMS
Service. Stay alert to
market changes with the HFM SMS Service, complimentary to clients trading
upwards of 5 round turn lots per calendar month.

By using these tools and the others available via the HFM
website, traders can enhance their trading and stay up to date with market
movements that may affect their trades.

About HFM

Since its founding in 2010, HFM has been a leader in the
online trading industry, known for its cutting-edge technology, comprehensive
educational resources, and exceptional trading conditions. The Group holds
licenses from 7 regulatory bodies and has earned more than 60 prestigious
industry awards, demonstrating its commitment to excellence and trader
security.

HFM offers traders access to a diverse range of financial
instruments, including forex, indices, commodities, bonds, and ETFs. With four
tailored account types and three advanced trading platforms—including the
proprietary HFM platform—HFM provides a comprehensive suite of tools and
resources to meet the needs of traders worldwide.

Additionally, HFM supports traders with features like copy
trading and various promotions, enabling them to navigate their trading journey
with confidence. Whether through in-person seminars, online webinars, or
state-of-the-art trading platforms, HFM continues to provide the resources
traders need to engage in today’s fast-paced financial markets.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Introduction to Amega

Amega is a multi-award-winning global
financial broker, authorized, licensed, and regulated by the Mauritius
Financial Services Commission under investment license No. GB22200548. Its
mission is to make trading simple and accessible to traders of all levels and
backgrounds, through the introduction of new technologies, groundbreaking
innovations, and a client-first mentality. Amega prides itself on providing a
safe and transparent trading environment, allowing investors to trade a variety
of assets with unparalleled ease of mind.

The Lucky Deposit draw

Amega’s Lucky
Deposit Draw is here to give traders a monthly
boost!

Participating is simple! All you need to do is make a minimum deposit of $50 during
the month and have an active trading history with Amega. Once you’re eligible,
you’ll be entered into the lucky draw, where 5 lucky traders will walk away
with incredible monetary prizes that
can be used to trade or be withdrawn as physical cash.

What
are the prizes?

1st winner: $100
2nd winner: $80
3rd winner: $60
4th winner: $40
5th winner: $20

Every month, there’s a fresh chance to boost your trading capital or cash out — it’s up to you! The Lucky Deposit Draw is your monthly opportunity to win, and Amega
is here to make sure you have the chance to get ahead. No complicated
requirements – just trade, deposit, and win!

Ready
to make this month your lucky month?

Sign up today, create your account in seconds, make your deposit, and get in on
the draw!

Visit amega.finance to learn more about Amega
and its many benefits, such as the Loyalty Cashback Program which offers
volume-based cash rewards for every single trade, regardless of the market
direction.

Good Luck!

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.