• Risk environment remains challenging
• Some risky asset valuations continue to appear stretched
• Banking system is well capitalised, some evidence to net interest margins have peaked
• Vulnerabilities in market-based finance remain significant
• Full report

The key thing to note is that they say that businesses and households are still able to cope so far with higher interest rates. While there are risks to that in the short-to-medium term, the central bank is not quite in a mode to urgently scale back on tighter policy just yet.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The major currencies bloc is showing little change for the most part, with just some minor extensions to the narrow ranges from earlier. EUR/USD continues to sit flattish near 1.0800, with large option expiries also in play while USD/JPY is up by just 0.1% to 147.30 levels.

The commodity currencies are holding a slender lead against the dollar, amid a slightly better risk mood. That being said, the gains in stocks are not really overwhelming as of yet so that is keeping traders on their toes for now. AUD/USD is up just 0.3% to 0.6570, a slight drop from around 0.6590 earlier in the session.

In the bond market, yields are a touch higher but we still have the US ADP employment data to work through so that will be one to watch in case it leads to any broader market moves later in the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

●In the previous meeting, Canada’s central bank kept
its key interest rate at 5%.

●The current interest rate is unsustainable for
Canadians, and it seems evident that the Bank of Canada will keep the overnight
key rate.

●The BoC decision on the interest rate is likely to
weaken the national currency—the nearest target for USDCAD is 1.3650–1.3700.

The
Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to release its final interest rate report on 6
December, marking the eighth interest rate announcement this year. The rate is
expected to remain at the current level.

In
the previous October
meeting, Canada’s central bank kept
its key interest rate at 5%. It was the third consecutive rate hold of the
year. In Canada, there is growing evidence that past interest rate hikes have
dampened economic activity and eased price pressures. Consumption has declined,
with lower demand for housing, durable goods, and many services. Lower demand
and higher borrowing costs are putting pressure on business investment.

‘The current interest rate is unsustainable for Canadians, and it seems
obvious that the Bank of Canada will keep the overnight key rate,’ said Kar
Yong Ang, Octa’s financial market analyst. ‘The expectation of a pause and a
possible potential rate cut is causing the currency to weaken,’ he added.

The
bank’s preferred measures of core inflation show downward momentum, with CPI
inflation falling to 4.0% in August, 3.8% in September and 3.1% in October.
Higher interest rates are moderating inflation in many goods that people buy on
credit, and this is spreading to services. Considering the more apparent signs
of easing price pressure, it is likely that the Governing Council will hold the
policy rate at 5%. Such a decision will weaken the national currency: the
near-term target for USDCAD is 1.3650–1.3700.

About Octa

Octa is an international broker that has been providing
online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access
to financial markets and various services already utilised by clients from 180
countries with more than 42 million trading accounts. Free educational
webinars, articles, and analytical tools they provide help clients reach their
investment goals.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of
charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of
educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local
communities.

Octa has also won over 60 awards since its foundation,
including the ‚Best Educational Broker 2023‘ award from Global Forex Awards and
the ‚Best Global Broker Asia 2022‘ award from International Business Magazine.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Nothing makes a louder statement in a tight
industry than being acknowledged as elite amongst your peers. This includes the
growing anticipation and hype surrounding the prestigious UF AWARDS MEA 2024,
as nominations continue to pour in for the industry’s best performing brands.
Indeed, the stage is set for this January with these distinguished honours
being given out during the upcoming iFX EXPO Dubai 2024.

UF AWARDS MEA 2024 represent the financial
service industry’s most sought-after titles. These awards recognise B2C and B2B
brand leaders for their pioneering achievements, innovation, and significant
contributions in the online trading and fintech space.

Such accolades not only honour excellence but
help instil brand visibility and solidify one’s market authority. It should
come as no surprise that these awards also help provide traders and businesses
with an industry benchmark of the best companies to trade and do business
within the Middle East and Africa (MEA). Does your brand have what it takes to
take home this year’s biggest honours?

Time is
Running Out to Nominate Your Brand for the UF AWARDS MEA 2024

With the biggest titles on the line, nominations
for the UF AWARDS MEA 2024 have been met with both excitement and enthusiasm.
Are you unsure of how to cast your nomination? Thankfully, nominating your
brand is easier than ever – users can simply register on the UF AWARDS MEA 2024
website and fill in the nomination form.
Of note, only registered users can
nominate a brand, so sign up today and make your voice heard!

Nominations will remain open until December 15,
building on a record participation and interest that has already corresponded
with the awards. This period will be directly followed by a subsequent voting
round that will last from December 20 until January 10. During this round,
registered users will have a chance to cast their votes from a short list of
B2C and B2B brands that are currently being nominated.

With less than two weeks remaining before the
nomination window closes, this is a crucial opportunity for both industry
leaders and enthusiasts alike to nominate not just their own brand, but their
favourites too. Whether you are a fintech trailblazer, a visionary in the
brokerage sector, or an enthusiast passionate about recognising game-changing
brands, now is the time to act. Don’t miss this unique chance to nominate and
celebrate the brands that have redefined excellence in the B2B fintech and
brokerage space across the MEA region.

Step Into
the Spotlight with the UF AWARDS MEA 2024

The UF AWARDS MEA 2024 constitute a robust slate
of categories up for grabs across the financial services sphere. Access the following link to
discover your brand’s perfect match and explore each exciting category that is
available for nomination. This includes some of this year’s most coveted
titles:

• BEST BROKER – MEA
• FASTEST GROWING BROKER – MEA
• MOST INNOVATIVE BROKER – MEA
• BEST MULTI-ASSET BROKER – MEA
• BEST TRADING PLATFORM – MEA
• BEST B2B LIQUIDITY PROVIDER – MEA
• BEST TECHNOLOGY PROVIDER – MEA
• BEST CRM SOFTWARE PROVIDER – MEA

Benefits
of Winning

Winning one or more UF AWARDS MEA 2024 provides
immense value to any company. For brands looking to make a splash in the New
Year, these awards simply have no equal and certainly live up to the hype. As
any market leader can attest, being elite starts with brand awareness – an
accomplishment made easy by racking up such prestigious industry titles.

Previous awards winners have garnered extensive
brand exposure to targeted audiences, as well as validation and recognition for
their achievements. This also includes fostering an enhanced brand image,
unrivalled publicity on a global stage, and the ability to stand out among
industry peers or competitors.

As a quick reminder, only subscribed users will
be able to cast their nomination or vote. The official UF AWARDS MEA 2024
Ceremony will be held on January 17, concluding the first day of the iFX EXPO
Dubai 2024 at the Dubai World Trade Centre.

iFX EXPO is the world’s leading online trading
event. For over a decade, this landmark exhibition has brought together
professionals in online trading, fintech, and financial services across Europe,
Asia, and the Middle East.

Only the most trusted and reputable brands can
lay claim to the UF AWARDS MEA 2024 this January. Will this include yours?

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

It’s not only central banks and bond yields in focus this week but US data is once again another key point of contention for markets. And even if inflation data has been the main draw in recent months, it would be careless to disregard the US labour market report at any point in time. And we’ll have a couple of key releases in the run up to that on Friday, starting with the JOLTS data today.

This particular release may not be too impactful at times but in October, it certainly was as seen here. Now, we’re in a rather sensitive period in markets – especially after the extremely aggressive amount of rate cuts priced in for next year. So, any data that challenges said narrative might go some ways in disrupting the balance of things. And even more so if it is backed up by less optimistic inflation developments.

We’ll only get to the inflation stuff next week but for this week, the jobs data will have to do. The JOLTS data today will be the first touch point before we get to the ADP employment roulette change tomorrow and lastly, the non-farm payrolls on Friday. So, buckle up. It’s going to be a bumpy few days potentially; not least as markets also have to consider key central bank decisions going into next week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite opened lower but
recovered most of the losses ending the day basically flat. At the moment,
there’s some consolidation going on probably due to uncertainty around the
upcoming economic data. The market rallied strongly in November as the rate
cuts pricing became more and more aggressive, but this wave of euphoria might
reverse quickly if the data starts to point to a hard landing. This week might
be key for the Nasdaq Composite as we are not only at an important technical
level, but we are also going to see lots of US labour market data.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite
pulled back to the red 21 moving average where we
got a bounce yesterday. Looking at how things have been going recently, this
might even be ironically the “biggest” pullback we will see before another
rally. There will be important levels to watch out for on lower timeframes
which might or might not increase the chances for the rally.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD into the
cycle high. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. We indeed got a pullback with the buyers already piling
in near the most recent swing low. This move lower though gave us an early
lower low with the moving averages crossing over.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
got the drop into the support zone
around the 14050 level yesterday. The buyers immediately stepped in, and we
could see a rally back into the minor downward trendline where
we will likely find the sellers waiting to enter the market and target a break
below the 14050 level. A break below the support should trigger a selloff into
the next key support around the 13700 level where we will also find the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level of this entire November rally.

Upcoming
Events

This week we will see lots of US labour
market data culminating with the NFP release on Friday. Today, we have the ISM
Services PMI and the US Job Openings reports. Tomorrow, we will get the US ADP
data. On Thursday, it will be the time for the US Jobless Claims figures, while
on Friday we conclude the week with the NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.5%
• PPI -9.4% vs -9.5% y/y expected
• Prior -12.4%

Looking at the breakdown, the increase largely comes from a push higher in energy prices (+1.0%) on the month. There was also an increase in prices for durable consumer goods (+0.1%) while prices remained stable for capital goods. Meanwhile, there were declines in the prices of non-durable consumer goods (-0.1%) and intermediate goods (-0.3%). If you strip out energy prices, producer prices actually declined by 0.2% in October.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Only 23% of companies were optimistic about prospects for the year ahead
• 35% of businesses expect to employ fewer people next year
• Only 20% of firms expect employment to increase in the year ahead

The survey also highlights the continued struggle in Germany’s industrial and construction sectors. For the former, only 25% of companies are expecting an increase in production while 38% were expecting a drop next year. For the latter, only 13% expect an increase in output while 54% expect a decline in output for the year ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last Friday, the Dow Jones rallied despite the ISM Manufacturing PMI missing
expectations and falling further into contraction. The market is still trading
based on rate cuts expectations as the trigger for the rally was a neutral Fed Chair Powell speech
where he didn’t push back against the market’s pricing. The market seems to be
all-in on the soft-landing trade and ignoring the weakening economic data,
especially on the labour market side. The sentiment is also getting a bit bubbly
right when things might really go south, so the buyers might want to be extra
cautious going forward.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones broke
decisively through the cycle high and extended the rally into the 36265 level.
This looks more and more like a FOMO play with the index distant just 2% from
the all-time high. The market is not even offering decent pullbacks with the
price just going up parabolically. These are not healthy trends, especially in
this part of the cycle.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price is overstretched to the upside as depicted by the price distance from
the blue 8 moving average. In
such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move. This would fit with a pullback into the
recently broken cycle high at 35684 where the buyers might pile in with a
defined risk below the level to position for another rally and target the
all-time high.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
breakout to the upside of the channel and the cycle high triggered a strong
increase in the bullish momentum with the buyers piling in aggressively to
target the all-time high. From a risk management perspective, buying around
these levels doesn’t make much sense from both a fundamental and technical
point of view, so waiting for a decent pullback should be better than chasing
this insane rally.

Upcoming Events

This week we will see lots of US labour
market data culminating with the NFP release on Friday. Tomorrow, we have the
ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings reports. On Wednesday, we will get the
US ADP data. On Thursday, it will be the time for the US Jobless Claims
figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is keeping steadier so far in European trading, as risk sentiment is looking a bit nervy to start the new week. The greenback is mostly higher across the board, only down marginally against the Japanese yen. In the bond market, Treasury yields are a touch higher so that is perhaps helping to give the greenback a bit more of a steadying hand on the session.

10-year Treasury yields are up 2.5 bps to 4.249% currently. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% so that isn’t doing much to help commodity currencies at the moment.

AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6645 while USD/CAD is up 0.4% to 1.3545 as oil prices are also sitting lower on the day.

The euro continues to struggle after last week’s fall, following softer inflation data which sped up ECB rate cut odds to April next year. EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0863 as the retreat from the highs around 1.1000 continue to play out for now.

There’s not much else to work with to start the new week, as market players are eyeing major central bank decisions this week and the next. Adding to that will be the US non-farm payrolls and US CPI data. As such, those will be more important risk events to drive trading sentiment, as opposed to the slower pace we’re seeing so far.

In other markets, gold is down 0.2% to $2,067 currently after a surge higher earlier today, which begs the question: Has gold peaked too early in the cycle?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.