<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is sitting a little higher against most of the major currencies bloc today, while keeping a modest advance against the antipodeans in particular. As mentioned earlier, the latter move is a reflection of the dollar’s gains against Chinese yuan today – after having seen China disappoint with their GDP target for the year.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The counter flows seem to be enough to keep the dollar afloat for now, despite the fact that <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bond-yields-continue-to-hold-slightly-lower-on-the-day-20230306/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>bond yields are pushing lower</a>. 10-year Treasury yields are down 5 bps now to 3.912% but USD/JPY is instead up 0.1% to 136.00 currently. The dollar’s gains are more evident against the aussie and kiwi, with the latter being pressed towards key technical levels again:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>NZD/USD is closing in on its 200-day moving average (blue line), which will act as a first line of defense before the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the swing higher since October last year, seen at 0.6145 next.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As much as the dollar is holding up, there’s still plenty of landmines to navigate through on the week with key central bank policy decisions in focus alongside Fed chair Powell’s testimony to Congress (tomorrow and Wednesday). That will keep markets on edge but if anything else, just be wary that often times it is the case that the bond market is always right and the dollar (and equities) will have to play catch up later on.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Stronger pressures in inflation are indicated from food-related costs and labour market developments</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Weaker pressures instead are arising from energy commodities, economic activity and supply-side bottlenecks</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Heatmap suggests inflation pressures are still strong but there are some emerging signs of easing</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>He adds that they would have to mark the latest wage developments as a high priority. Well, the headline while significant already fits with what markets are expecting i.e. more rate hikes by the ECB to follow. The question now is whether or not policymakers will make any firm „commitment“ after the March meeting.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is out with some candid comments today. She’s plugged into the core of the Fed and was the first to signal a higher path for Fed rates in November 2021. Her latest comments skew hawkishly but it’s conditional on the final round of data before the March 22 FOMC decision.</p><ul><li>I am beginning to think the labor market has a shortage of workers</li><li>Anecdotes from business leaders suggest inflation is slowing more than recent data suggests</li><li>Inflation is still high, have to think about ‚continuous tightening'</li><li>It would be a mistake to say we’ve done all we can do, impact of policy is still ahead</li><li>Further policy tightening, maintained for a longer term, will likely be necessary</li><li>Reshoring and the continued decline in labor force participation could mean more inflationary pressures ahead</li><li>The disinflation momentum we need is far from certain</li></ul><p>Between this and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-waller-fomc-may-need-to-raise-rates-beyond-decembers-51-54-central-tendency-view-20230302/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Waller</a>, it looks like the Fed is setting up a shift in the dots to 6% or just below. There is certainly plenty of grey area and it’s contingent on the data between now and March 22 but it’s a fine line. Obviously, the market wasn’t spooked by Waller so I don’t see that changing on Daly but Powell is speaking on Wednesday and if he strikes some of these notes, the market could take notice.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The Japanese Trade Union Confederation (JTUC, more commonly known as Rengo) says its survey of 2000+ unions in the country shows an average pay rise request of 4.49% this year. This is the highest since 1998’s 4.36% and is much higher than the 2.97% sought in 2022.</p><p>Japan’s „shunto“ spring wage talks are held each March, where larger firms meet with unions for wage talks. Agreements reached at these wage talks influence wages at smaller firms. </p><p>The Bank of Japan is encouraging higher wages to support <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa“ target=“_blank“>inflation</a>. It sees the current bout of high (for Japan) CPI as transitory only, as cost-push inflation that their forecasts expect to slow from the middle of the 2023 fiscal year (this begins on April 1). Indeed, there are some signs CPI growth is slowing already:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/japan-data-tokyo-area-headline-cpi-in-february-34-prior-44-20230302/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“ data-article-link=“true“>Japan data – Tokyo area headline CPI in February 3.4% (prior 4.4%)</a></li></ul><p>Higher wages, the Bank argues, would support demand-pull inflation. This form of inflation, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/b/boj/“ class=“terms__secondary-term“ id=“c1f60108-4283-4827-911e-95f01607c737″ target=“_blank“>BOJ</a> officials say, would help ensure more sustainable and stable inflation around the Bank’s 2% target. If the BOJ can achieve stable 2% inflation there is a case for a reduction in its ultra-loose, ultra-stimulatory policy. At the margin this would be yen supportive. </p><p>Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and incoming head, from April 8, Kazuo Ueda, seated.</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>China’s parliamentary committees meet in the week ahead, beginning on Sunday in an event that will outline key government policies and targets. Chief among them will be a GDP growth estimate, which government advisors currently recommend at 4.5-5.5%. The consensus from economists is 4.9% but there’s some <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-increasingly-ambitious-with-2023-growth-target-may-aim-up-6-sources-2023-03-02/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>chatter </a>about 6%.</p><p>The two swing factors are 1) pent up demand from the reopening 2) the damaged property sector. </p><p>The government is expected to widen its annual budget deficit to around 3% of gross domestic product this year and issue about 4 trillion yuan in special bonds to support investment spending, according to Reuters sources. Some of that is already priced into markets so risks could run both ways but I see more upside than downside, given China’s (recent) penchant for over-promising and due to the new leadership looking to solidify its authority.</p><p>Spots to watch will be Chinese equities, commodities and commodity currencies. AUD/USD showed some life on Friday but was unable to get above the weekly high.</p><p>For more, here’s a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-look-china-kicks-off-its-annual-session-parliament-2023-03-02/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>factbox on the NPC</a>.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>An effective bitcoin trading method based on volume profile (AKA market profile)</p><p>Combining volume profile with technical analysis may be an effective trading approach, especially for Bitcoin. When we examine the daily time frame over the span of around 260 days starting in June 2022, please observe that the BTCUSD price rejection at 25,770 resulted in a double top with a high of 25,212 on August 16th.</p><p>At a current price of $22,376 and using this bitcoing price projection, the following price level is predicted to be around $21,250. Key price magnets include the daily pivot low at 21,376, the weekly 20 EMA at 21,116, and the value area high at 21,289.Because it is assumed that there are enough people who are keeping an eye on these price magnets, the targets that they are looking at have a better chance of being reached. The price action in the range of $20,358 to $21,350 should be monitored. If BTCUSD gets there, we want to see how price will react there, for example a ‚V recovery‘ on a smaller timeframe (eg 4 hour), or buyers still not excited to buy there.Traders should proceed with caution while dealing in Bitcoin because of the high degree of risk involved. A trader’s success in the Bitcoin market can be improved by including a volume profile into their technical analysis. As the market develops, <a target=“_blank“ href=“www.forexlive.com“>ForexLive .com</a> will provide further perspectives and future updates.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-bowman-doesnt-comment-on-the-outlook-for-the-us-economy-or-mon-pol-20230303/“>Fed’s Bowman doesn’t comment on the outlook for the US economy or mon pol</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/crypto-companies-behind-tether-used-falsified-documents-report-20230303/“>Crypto companies behind Tether used falsified documents – report</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/wti-crude-oil-settles-at-7968-20230303/“>WTI Crude oil settles at $79.68</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/mufg-trade-of-the-week-sell-usdbrl-stay-short-eurusd-20230303/“>MUFG trade of the week: Sell USD/BRL, stay short EUR/USD</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-us-oil-rig-count-8-20230303/“>Baker Hughes US oil rig count -8</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/stocks-are-looking-good-jinx-20230303/“>Stocks are looking good (jinx)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/oil-bulls-pounce-on-the-dip-sending-crude-3-higher-20230303/“>Oil bulls pounce on the dip, sending crude $3 higher</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/european-equity-close-another-sizzling-week-as-the-great-year-continues-20230303/“>European equity close: Another sizzling week as the great year continues</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-semi-annual-monetary-policy-report-ongoing-increases-in-fed-funds-are-necessary-20230303/“>Fed semi-annual monetary policy report: Ongoing increases in Fed funds are necessary</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-logal-central-bank-interventions-in-treasuries-should-be-rare-20230303/“>Fed’s Logal: Central bank interventions in Treasuries should be rare</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/economists-largely-dont-see-the-bank-of-canada-shifting-from-450-this-year-20230303/“>Economists largely don’t see the Bank of Canada shifting from 4.50% this year</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-ism-services-pmi-551-vs-545-expected-20230303/“>US February ISM services PMI 55.1 vs 54.5 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/report-on-uae-mulling-leaving-opec-is-far-from-the-truth-report-20230303/“>Report on UAE mulling leaving OPEC is ‚far from the truth‘ – report</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-sp-global-final-service-pmi-506-vs-505-prelim-20230303/“>US S&P Global final service PMI 50.6 vs 50.5 prelim</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uae-debates-internally-on-whether-to-leave-opec-20230303/“>UAE debates internally on whether to leave OPEC</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-q4-labour-productivity-05-vs-06-prior-20230303/“>Canada Q4 labour productivity -0.5% vs +0.6% prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-january-building-permits-40-vs-15-expected-20230303/“>Canada January building permits -4.0% vs +1.5% expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-ism-services-data-has-taken-markets-on-a-ride-this-year-a-new-chapter-is-coming-today-20230303/“>The ISM services data has taken markets on a ride this year. A new chapter is coming today</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbp-is-the-strongest-an-the-usd-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20230303/“>The GBP is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-dollar-struggles-as-yields-pull-back-20230303/“>ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar struggles as yields pull back</a></li></ul><p>Being the first Friday of the month, the day sorta felt like it should have been an employment day. However, because of the quirks of the shortened calendar month of February, this Friday was void of the big job report. That data will have to wait until next week, when both the US and Canada jobs reports will be released (and it will be 10th of the month). </p><p>We did get the ISM non-manufacturing data today which came in better than expectations at 55.1 vs 54.5. Within that report was the the employment component which came in higher at 54.0 versus 49.8 expected and 50.0 last month (so there was some jobs data afterall). That was a better reading than the manufacturing employment component released on Wednesday which had the employment component declining to 49.1 from 50.6 last month. New orders were also strong at 62.6 versus 58.5 expected. The prices paid index fell from 67.8 to 65.6 but it was still higher than the 64.5 expected, and still way above the 50.0 level. </p><p>The strong data helped to send the dollar back to the upside (it was the weakest of the majors coming into the trading session). </p><p>However, after treasury yields initially moved higher, the momentum stalled and yields started to rotate back to the downside. The 10 year yield fell back below the key 4% level and then the 100 hour moving average (at 3.982%). The 200 hour moving average at 3.962% was approached going into the close. That moving average level will be a key barometer in the new trading week. </p><p>Meanwhile, US stocks, were encouraged by the declining yields as well. As a result, they too started to rally. The NASDAQ index led the charge with a gain of 1.97% which was the best day since February 2. The S&P increase by 1.62% which was its best day since January 6. </p><p>For the trading week all the major indices snatch victory from the jaws of defeat from earlier this week when the prices were reaching new corrective lows and breaking below some key technical levels including the 200 day MA in both the S&P and Nasdaq indices. </p><p>For the trading week, the </p><ul><li>NASDAQ gained 2.58%, </li><li>S&P rose by 1.9%, and the </li><li>Dow Industrial Average rose by 1.75%.</li></ul><p>IN the forex market, the GBP is ending the day as the strongest of the majors. The weakest was the a virtual tie between the USD and the CAD. The dollar fell -0.87% vs the GBP and -0.69% vs the JPY. </p><p>For the trading week, the USD was lower vs all the major currencies although the changes were fairly modest. It moved the most vs the NZD. Against that currency the decline was still less than 1.0% at -0.96%. Versus the CAD, the greenback was only lower by 0.07% (just about 9 pips from the close a week ago):</p><ul><li>-0.82% vs the EUR</li><li>-0.48% vs the JPY</li><li>-0.88% vs the GBP</li><li>-0.45% vs the CHF</li><li>-0.07% vs the CAD</li><li>-0.66% vs the AUD</li><li>-0.96% vs the NZD</li></ul><p>IN other markets: </p><ul><li>Spot gold was encouraged by the lower yields in lower dollar and rallied $19.72 today or 1.07% to $1855.19. For the week, spot gold increase by $45.31 or 2.5%</li><li>spot silver is closing higher by $0.35 or 1.68% at $21.23. For its week, in the $0.48 or 2.31%</li><li>WTI crude oil is trading near the high for the week at $79.82. That is up $1.66 or 2.11% today. For the trading week, crude oil is up $3.49 or 4.57%</li><li>Bitcoin did not have a risk on flow today as the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/silvergate-triggered-yet-another-mini-crypto-sell-off-20230303/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Silvergate </a>news this week pressured the digital currency. The prices trading at $22,279. For the trading week, the prices down once $1283 or -5.45%.</li></ul><p>In the US debt market:</p><ul><li>2 year yield is trading at 4.86%. This week the yield reached 4.944% which was the highest level going back to July 2007. However, yields backed off and for the week it is still ending up but only by 4.1 basis points</li><li>10 year yield is at 3.959% which is down -11 basis points on the day. The high-yield this week reached 4.089%. For the trading week, the yield is up only 1.1 basis points</li><li>30 year yield is at 3.877% which is down -14 basis points on the day. The high yield reached 4.047% this week. For the trading week yield fell -5.7 basis points</li></ul><p>In the new trading week, in addition to the employment report on Friday, other employment measures including the ADP jobs report, the JOLTS job openings, and the Challenger jobs survey will be released. </p><p>In addition, Fed Chair Powell will be testifying on Capitol Hill on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The market will be keen to his views on whether his playbook remains intact or has been ratcheted up a notch as a result of the stronger data. There were some Fed officials this week who seem to be leaning higher, and others that seem to be satisfied with the current playbook of getting the rate toward 5.25% and sitting still for an extended period time.</p><p>The Fed funds futures for October delivery reached an implied yield of around 5.50% this week before settling at 5.455%. The Federal Reserve will announce their next rate decision on March 22.</p><p>Thank you for all your support this week. Hope you have a good weekend.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Labor market is still ‚quite tight'</li><li>Inflation is likely past its peak</li><li>Inflation expectations are well-anchored but under-surface movements warrant caution</li><li>My view is still in step with the FOMC</li><li>We still have work to do</li><li>Expect no rate cuts this year</li></ul>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Daily changes:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 +1.6%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp +2.0%</li><li>DJIA +1.2%</li><li>Russell 2000 +1.3%</li><li>Toronto TSX +1.2%</li></ul><p>Weekly changes:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 +1.9%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp +2.6%</li><li>Russell 2000 2.7%</li><li>Toronto TSX +1.7%</li></ul><p>Greg highlighted the technical earlier and how the S&P 500 has quickly comeback from a trip below the 200-dma.</p><p>The weekly chart shows a nice bounce but it didn’t get above last week’s intraday high.</p><p>What’s been driving markets is the hope that the Fed is near a top. Fed funds are pricing in 5.44% in July and 2-year yields nearly hit 5% earlier this week. That’s led to a wave of speculation that we hit the top in yields and rate hike expectations and the hope that all the risks are towards rate cuts after July.</p><p>It’s been an impressive flood of money and that was emphasized with the huge gains today.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The USDCHF has extended to a new session low and in the process is dipping below the rising 200 hour moving average at 0.93619. The low-priced has just reached 0.93584.</p><p>The last time the USDCHF price traded below its 200 day moving average was back on February 21 when the 200 hour moving average was at 0.9228. Over the next 4 1/2 days, the price moved up 200 pips to a high of 0.94284 reached on February 27. </p><p>Since then, the price has been waffling up and down with a low near 0.93406 and highs near 0.9440 (reached just yesterday). The high price yesterday got within about six pips of the falling 100 day moving average at 0.9346 (at the time). Sellers leaned against the key daily moving average. The price started to rotate back to the downside. </p><p>The dollar selling today, help by lower yields and a rising stock market, has also helped to push the USDCHF lower. </p><p>Now traders will decide if they want to move further below the 200 hour moving average and look to test the floor area near 0.9340 to 0.9348.</p><p>Alternatively if buyers lean against the moving average, getting back above 0.9369 is the first hurdle that would give the dip buyer some short-term satisfaction. Staying above that area and a move back toward the 100 hour moving average and swing area between 0.9387 and 0.9393 cannot be ruled out over time.</p><p>Of course as we head into the close, this area would be a natural level for shorts heading into the weekend, to take some profit..</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.