<ul><li>Fed needs to keep at rate hikes until inflation trend brakes lower</li><li>Says here view on the economy and inflation hasn’t been changed by the latest data</li><li>Data shows inflation not yet on trend to get back sustainably to 2% target</li><li>New <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa“ target=“_blank“>inflation</a> data affirms case for rate hikes</li><li>Asked about 25 bps vs 50 bps at March meeting, declines to say</li><li>Says 25 vs 50 bps discussion misses bigger picture</li><li>Says there’s more data and info to take on before debating rate rise sizes at March 21-22 meeting</li></ul><p>Again, she’s passing up an opportunity to be more hawkish than previously. She has previously said that rates need to get above 5% and stay there, so that’s not new.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is moving higher amid the backdrop of <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/equities-dribble-lower-ahead-of-north-american-trading-20230224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>struggling equities</a> and also as Treasury yields nudge higher. 10-year yields in the US are now at the highs for the day, up 2.3 bps, to 3.904% and that is keeping the greenback underpinned.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>We’re seeing fresh highs now for the dollar all across the board and in my view, USD/JPY and AUD/USD are two big charts to watch. The former is up 0.5% to 135.43 – its highest levels in a little over two months:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Buyers have been huffing and puffing to try and find a breakthrough above 135.00 and they might get their just rewards today.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, AUD/USD is starting to see a stronger downside momentum build as it trades to its lowest levels in seven weeks. The series of technical support levels outlined <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/audusd-is-starting-to-see-support-lines-crack-under-the-dollar-pressure-20230224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> are all giving way at the moment as the pair drops by 0.7% to 0.6765:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It hasn’t been a good session for equities whatsoever, with it being a slow and steady grind lower through European morning trade. That has also seen the decently positive start for European stocks wither with most regional indices seeing red at the moment. Here’s a snapshot of things on the day:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 futures -0.6%</li><li>Nasdaq futures -0.9%</li><li>Dow futures -0.5%</li><li>Eurostoxx -0.5%</li><li>Germany DAX -0.5%</li><li>France CAC 40 -0.3%</li><li>UK FTSE +0.1%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In turn, this is helping to keep the dollar underpinned with USD/JPY racing up to 135.40 now – up 0.5% on the day. Elsewhere, EUR/USD is trading to the lows at 1.0575 and GBP/USD is also down 0.3% now to 1.1980 currently. The antipodeans are still the laggards with AUD/USD down 0.7% to 0.6765 and NZD/USD down 0.5% to 0.6198 – both at the lows for the day as well.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It all started on the morning of 24 February 2022:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/putin-has-announced-a-special-military-operation-20220224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Putin has announced a Special Military Operation</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ukraine-capital-kyiv-has-declared-a-state-of-emergency-20220223/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Ukraine capital Kyiv has declared a State of Emergency</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ukraine-says-that-kyiv-is-under-attack-from-cruise-and-ballistic-missiles-20220224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Ukraine says that Kyiv is under attack from cruise and ballistic missiles</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/nato-confirms-officially-that-an-invasion-of-ukraine-has-begun-20220224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>NATO confirms officially that an invasion of Ukraine has begun</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It is now a historic day for the entire world and things have never really been the same when it comes to geopolitical relations across the globe. Russia has since been heavily isolated by sanctions and China, while mostly trying to stay on the fence, has also seen recent relations with the US take a turn for the worse – though that has been coming for a while.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, the struggle is continuing for the commonfolk – especially those caught up in the war and neighbouring countries. It is an extremely tough period for many and I would like to express my deepest sympathies and prayers for those having to go through this difficult ordeal.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I would say that while markets have been quick to dismiss the headlines and move on from the issue, it is one that is still embedded within all of us and it is a reminder to everyone that life should not be taken for granted.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that gold keeps on slowly trending downwards. After the break of the big
upward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> that defined the uptrend since
November 2022, the precious metal just kept on losing ground. </p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> have crossed to the downside signalling a change in trend. The culprit
was the blockbuster <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/“>NFP</a> report and the subsequent hot
key economic data that made the market to reprice higher future interest rates
expectations. Gold is inversely correlated with real yields, so the recent rise
in real yields is giving gold a hard time. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see how gold’s price action has been clean recently with downside extensions
followed by pullbacks to the broken <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>supports</a> turned <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistances</a>. </p><p>If the economic data keep on
surprising upwards, then we will most likely see even lower prices going
forward. On the other hand, if we start to get misses, then the market may
think that the January data was indeed just a blip, and we should see higher
prices instead. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that right now the price is trading around the support zone at 1825. A
clean break below, especially if supported by a fundamental catalyst, will give
sellers conviction for lower lows, possibly finding some support at the 1800
round number. </p><p>For the buyers, on the other
hand, a bigger bounce from the current support accompanied by a new higher high
and the moving averages crossing upwards, should give conviction for a move
towards the resistance at 1855. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price has now fallen to the key 11492 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> where we can also find the 38.2%
<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. This level will be key for both buyers and
sellers. </p><p>Overall, the work for the buyers
is more challenging as the market started to price in a higher terminal rate as
many key economic data came in hot recently and there’s a chance the Fed will
be forced to do more, ultimately causing a recession. </p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> have also crossed to the downside signalling a possible change in
trend. We will have another set of key economic data soon and we will see if
the January data was indeed just a blip, or the Fed has slowed the pace of
hikes too early. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see how the price is founding strong support at the 11492 level. We may see a
little range here until new information comes in and gives the market the
direction. </p><p>A clean break below will give the
sellers more conviction to target possibly the 11000 level, with a further fall
potentially leading to the 2022 low at 10092.</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the little range between the 11632 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> and the 11492 support. A break
above the resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level should give the
buyers some conviction for an upside extension, possibly to the 61.8%
retracement level. </p><p>The moving averages are crossing
upwards, but it may be a false signal as it generally is within a range. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The always awesome Newsquawk US Market Open: NQ outperforms given NVIDIA strength, Gilts lag post-Mann</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2874-us-market-open-nq-outperforms-given-nvidia-strength-gilts-lag-postmann&utm_source=newsquawk&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=us-open“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Note</a></p><p>Key Points</p><p>European bourses are firmer on the session with a hefty earnings docket dictating action after an uninspiring APAC handover.</p><p>Stateside, futures are broadly-speaking in-fitting with Europe though the NQ +0.7% outperforms given tailwinds from NVIDIA’s after-market update.</p><p>The DXY continues to grind higher at the top-end of 104.30-65 parameters to the mixed fortune of peers; Antipodeans outperform and GBP lags despite Mann.</p><p>Gilts are the incremental laggards post-Mann and down to a new 101.26 session low with the Sonia strip similarly dented, EGBs & USTs in-fitting though incrementally more contained.</p><p>BoE’s Mann says she does not think UK monetary policy is in a restrictive stance particularly.WTI and Brent April futures are consolidating following another hefty session of losses, Henry Hub firmer, spot gold contained but erring lower.</p><p>Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP/PCE Q4 (2nd Estimate), IJC Japanese CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic & Daly, BoE’s Cunliffe, Supply from US, Earning from Moderna.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price has finally broken out of the range between the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 33540 and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 34477. The market is
repricing a higher terminal rate and what may come next is a recession. </p><p>This is bad for the stock market
as we can see from the bearish price action. Once the support at 32684 gives
way, the sellers will have plenty of room to the downside. That level will also
be the last line of defence for the buyers.</p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see the recent breakout of the range and the price bouncing from the previous
low at 33030. We may see a pullback towards the broken support at 33538 that
now may turn into a resistance. There will be also the red long period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> acting as resistance. If the buyers manage to get into the range again,
then we may see another run towards the 34477 resistance. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the resistance at 33538 has also the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. The downward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> should act as the first
resistance for the sellers and the 38.2% Fibonacci level may be the spot where
we will see them piling in. </p><p>The 33538 resistance will be the
last line of defence for the sellers, while a break below the recent low at
33030 should give another flush towards the 32684 level. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Turkey’s central bank cut its key interest rate on Thursday to the lowest in three years, in an extension of the country’s emergency response to its worst earthquake disaster in decades.</p><p>Turkish Weekly Repo Rate Actual 8.5% (Forecast 8%, Previous 9.00%)</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-23/turkey-delivers-smaller-rate-cut-than-forecast-after-earthquakes?utm_source=twitter&utm_content=middleeast&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&sref=1STrqapn“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>BBG</a></p><p>After a two-month pause, the Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Sahap Kavcioglu lowered its one-week repo rate to 8.5% from 9%. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a full percentage-point reduction</p><p>What Bloomberg Economics Says… “The rate cut will likely increase the pressure on the lira, which will curtail the expected deceleration in price gains. As for inflation, the central bank may be relying on strong base-effects to deliver a mechanical deceleration.”</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-shake-up-financial-system-as-xi-jinping-installs-key-associates-1b962796?mod=latest_headlines“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>WSJ Report – </a></p><p>China to Shake Up Financial System as Xi Jinping Installs Key Associates</p><p>_____</p><p>Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing to shake up the leadership of the country’s financial system, installing key associates to run the central bank and reviving a Communist Party body to tighten political control over financial affairs, according to people familiar with the discussions.</p><p>The new PBOC leadership will need to lead the central bank through a turbulent time in China, helping the economy get back on its feet following the scrapping of most zero-Covid restrictions and dealing with the worst property downturn on record to safeguard financial stability.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.