Fundamental
Overview

The Russell 2000 yesterday
sold off aggressively following the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more
hawkish than expected.

Overall, apart from some
slight tweaks, the Fed was in line with the market’s expectations, and the
selloff might have been an overreaction. There’s lots of noise during such big
events, so be careful of that.

The data is what really
matters now as it will decide what the Fed is going to do. It will likely take
just one soft CPI report in January to see the market reacting in a dovish way
and print new all-time highs.

For now, the conditions for
further upside remain in place. In fact, Trump’s policies should be a positive
driver for growth in 2025 and with the Fed remaining in an easing cycle, growth
should remain positive and might even accelerate as seen already recently by
the Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator.

The risk in 2025 is of
course inflation and the Fed’s reaction function. Right now, the Fed’s reaction
function is that a strong economy would warrant a slower pace in the easing
cycle and not a tightening. That should still be supportive for the stock market.

If the Fed’s reaction
function were to change to a potential tightening, then that will likely
trigger a big correction in the stock market (if not even a bear market given
the stretched valuations) on expected economic slowdown. For now, we remain in
a “buy the dip” environment.

Russell 2000
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Russell 2000 broke below the 2290 support following the FOMC decision. The sellers will
likely pile in around these levels with a defined risk above the 2290 level to
extend the drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price rising back above the 2290 level to start targeting
new highs.

Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the support turned resistance around the 2290 level where we
have also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. That’s where we can expect the
sellers to step in to extend the drop into new lows, while the buyers will look
for a break higher to target a rally back into the all-time highs.

Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback into
the resistance. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to push into new
highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to position for new lows. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the latest US jobless claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the US PCE data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Don’t see persistent economic stagnation, inflation undershooting
• A 50 bps move would require projections showing persistent undershooting of inflation
• Don’t see a situation where rates would need to fall below neutral
• Euro weakness not creating inflationary pressures

The message has been consistent across the board from the ECB since last week. So, this just adds to that.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed 2025: 36 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB 2025: 110 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE 2025: 47 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC 2025: 49 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA 2025: 67 bps (60% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ 2025: 118 bps (88% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB 2025: 48 bps (84% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ 2025: 43 bps (50% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

On the bank rate vote, here’s what the calls are:

• Barclays: 8-1 vote for a hold but minor possibility it could be as much as 6-3
• BofA: 8-1 vote for a hold with risks for a 9-0
• Deustche: 9-0 vote for a hold
• Goldman Sachs: 8-1 vote for a hold
• HSBC: 8-1 vote for a hold
• JP Morgan: 8-1 vote for a hold
• Morgan Stanley: 8-1 vote for a hold
• Nomura: 8-1 vote for a hold

Besides Barclays‘ outside call, there is more or less a general consensus expecting a 8-1 vote with Dhingra set to be the only policymaker to dissent in favour of a rate cut.

As for the central bank’s guidance, there is also a consensus is expecting the „gradual“ approach to be maintained. In essence, the language will mostly be the same as per what we saw in November here.

But amid recent developments in the UK economy, the calls for next year are differing. While most are anticipating quarterly rate cuts at the moment, there are a few standouts.

Barclays is seeing that the BOE might have to readjust their pacing and „move to sequential 25bp moves in May, June, August and September, leaving the bank rate at
3.50%.. we think a majority of the committee will see this as consistent with policy being
neutral“.

Meanwhile, Deutsche sees the BOE taking it slow in the first half of next year before accelerating the pace in the second half of the year. The firm sees „three rate cuts in 2H 2025, taking
place in August, November and December.. The bank rate settling at 3.25% in Q1-26 –
broadly consistent with our view of medium-term r-star“.

As for HSBC, the firm sees rate cuts in February, May, August, September, November and December 2025
with a final cut to 3.00% in February 2026.

(h/t @ MNI – Market News)

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

January 2025
– Vantage
Markets, a leading multi-asset trading platform, is excited to announce its
participation at the highly anticipated iFX EXPO Dubai 2025, scheduled for
January 14-16 at the Dubai World Trade Centre. As one of the premier global
events for the FX, fintech, and crypto industries, the expo offers an
unparalleled opportunity for attendees to engage with industry leaders,
discover cutting-edge technologies, and gain valuable insights into the
evolving financial landscape.

For anyone undecided about attending,
Vantage’s Souhail
Fadlallah, Business Development Manager at the Global Sales Department,
emphasizes:
„It’s not just an event; it’s an opportunity to connect with some of
the best experts in the industry, discover the latest innovations, and gain
awareness that can drive your business forward. Missing out means missing a
chance to stay ahead in an industry that’s evolving faster than ever.“

The iFX EXPO Dubai 2025 has earned a
reputation as the ultimate networking hub for financial services professionals.
With thousands of attendees, exhibitors, and speakers from across the globe,
the event provides a dynamic platform for exploring the latest trends in FX,
fintech, and crypto.

At this year’s expo, Vantage will showcase
its commitment to empowering traders and partners through innovative solutions,
transparency, and customer-centric services. Attendees visiting the Vantage
booth can expect:

1. Cutting-Edge Trading Tools:
   Discover the latest advancements in trading platforms, including enhanced
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2. Advanced Educational Resources:
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   success in the financial markets.
3. Affiliate and Partner Programs:
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   offering robust programs designed to drive mutual growth and success.

„We’re passionate about empowering
traders with the tools, resources, and education they need to succeed in
today’s markets,“ Fadlallah adds. „Our
presence at the expo reflects our commitment to being more than a broker—we’re
a partner in your success.“

For Vantage, participation at iFX EXPO
Dubai 2025 is about more than showcasing its offerings; it’s about building
trust and fostering meaningful connections.
„We want attendees to leave iFX EXPO Dubai 2025 with the clear message
that Vantage is more than just a trading platform,“ Fadlallah
emphasizes. „We’re a partner deeply committed to innovation,
transparency, and the success of all our clients.“

The feeling Vantage hopes to inspire is one
of trust and excitement, assuring attendees that with Vantage’s cutting-edge
tools and exceptional service, they are well-equipped for a successful trading
journey.

Vantage’s participation at iFX EXPO Dubai
2025 underscores its vision for shared growth in the rapidly evolving financial
markets. The company remains steadfast in its mission to provide clients and
partners with the tools, knowledge, and opportunities to excel in a dynamic
trading environment.

About Vantage

Vantage
Markets (or Vantage) is a multi-asset CFD broker offering clients access to
a nimble and powerful service for trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs)
products, including Forex, Commodities, Indices, Shares, ETFs, and Bonds.

With over 15 years of market experience,
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trade smarter @vantage

RISK
WARNING: CFD trading carries significant risks. You could lose more than your
initial investment.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Copper recently got a boost from the Chinese Politburo announcement that it will adopt a
“moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy for 2025 and will seek a “more
proactive” fiscal policy.

These were key changes in the language that triggered a rally in Chinese
stocks and commodity linked markets. Unfortunately, as it’s been the case for
quite some time, the moves were reversed, and we got back to square one pretty
quickly.

Nevertheless, this was a strong shift, and the market might just be waiting
for the Chinese to walk the talk this time around. On Friday, we have the PBoC
LPR decision and big rate cuts might trigger another rally in copper.

Copper
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that copper couldn’t break above the key resistance
around the 4.31 level where we had also the trendline
for confluence.
The sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for
a drop into the major trendline around the 3.90 level. The buyers will now look
for buying opportunities on the lower timeframes but a break above the key
resistance should open up for a rally into the 4.70 level next.

Copper Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had also an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum that
once got broken, opened the way for new lows as the sellers piled in more
aggressively and the buyers folded.

We are now bouncing from another
upward trendline and if we get a pullback into it again, we can expect the
buyers to try once again for a rally into the 4.31 resistance. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the major upward
trendline to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Copper Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum on
this timeframe. The sellers will likely lean on it to position for a break
below the major trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to
increase the bullish bets into the key resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today, we have the FOMC Policy Decision. Tomorrow, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the PBoC LPR
decision and the US PCE data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Google Stock Analysis: Key Levels and AI-Assisted Insights 🚀

Current Overview

Alphabet (GOOG) stock, what many still call Google stock, is trading near $198.54, aligning with yesterday’s VWAP—a critical price magnet. Price has retraced upward after testing the $196.90 support (yesterday’s VAL) and is now aiming for junctions that could trigger significant market reactions.

🔑 Next Key Price Levels to Watch for GOOG Stock

1. Support Levels:
   • 196.90: Yesterday’s Value Area Low, where buyers initially stepped in.
   • 191.26: A critical naked level from two days ago, acting as the potential bottom of the current range.

2. Resistance Levels to Monitor:

   • 198.98: Yesterday’s Value Area High, close to the psychological round number $199.
   • 200.00: Strong magnet for trader psychology and the Value Area High of two days ago.
   • 203.15: Just above yesterday’s high, an area where sellers may step in for a reversal opportunity.

3. Extended Short Opportunity:

   • 204.65: A reasonable stop-loss area for short positions initiated at 203.15.

Volumetric Insights for GOOG 📊

Volumetric stats show:

• Early selling pressure, with significant negative delta and aggressive sellers dominating key bars.
• However, the most recent session shows buyers stepping in, with notable absorption of sell volume.

Why It Matters: This indicates the potential for short-term upward retracement, but price reactions near $199–$200 and yesterday’s high ($203.15) will determine if sellers regain control.

AI Directional Bias Score for Google Stock: +2 (Slightly Bullish) 📈

Rationale:

• Buyers are stepping in near key supports, and price is reclaiming levels like yesterday’s VWAP.
• However, strong resistance around $199–$200 and above could cap the move, creating a range-bound scenario.
• Bullish bias may mean that the stock price is just retracing up where sellers may find an attractive entry, so this analysis and bias can shed short-term, not long-term guidance. Traders and investors should watch and monitor how price may react at the next price levels mentioned, for example, does the stock rise all the way to a new high but they gets rejected close to $203.15. Or does it not even confidentally conquer th $200 round number. All these junctions are spots to collect hints.

Trading Scenarios for GOOG 📉📈

1. Bullish Scenario:

   • Sustained price action above $198.98 and a breakout above $200.00 could target $203.15 and beyond.

2. Bearish Scenario:

   • Price rejection at $200.00–$203.15 creates opportunities for shorts, with downside targets at $198.00, $196.90, and $191.26.

3. Key Fakeout Zone:

   • Watch for a liquidity hunt above $203.15 before a reversal back toward $200.00 or lower.

Key Takeaways for Google Traders 🚦

• $198.98–$200.00 is a key junction for both bulls and bears—watch price reactions closely.
• Sellers could reappear near $203.15, creating short opportunities.
• Buyers need to hold above $196.90 to sustain the bullish case.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk effectively. 📊 Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -19

Ouch. That’s the biggest plunge in the order book balance since November 2020. Adding to that, the manufacturing output volume for the past three months also experienced its sharpest decline since August 2020. And for the coming three months, output expectations were the weakest since May 2020. It’s not a good sign as the economic slowdown begins to take a toll on the UK manufacturing sector.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The fundamentals in the crude
oil market haven’t changed much. The price action remains confined in a range
between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to
weigh the future scenarios.

On one hand, we have the
Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish for fear of the tariffs and a
slowdown in global growth as other countries could retaliate. You can throw
there also a potential increase in supply and the geopolitical risk premium
easing with the Trump’s administration.

On the other hand, we might
have an increase in global growth expectations due to the global central bank
easing, the Trump’s pro-growth policies and more recently the Chinese officials
promising much more on the monetary and fiscal policy side.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil continues to trade in a range between the resistance around the 72.00 handle and the
support around the 67.00 handle. The buyers will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 78.00 handle next, while the
sellers will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the 63.00 price
area.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that price action inside the range has been a nightmare. It’s been all over
the place not giving any clear technical level where to lean on. The best
strategy here is to just sit on one’s hands and wait for a breakout or a strong
catalyst.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 69.20 level where the price
got rejected from several times in the past weeks. This might add as kind of a barometer
for the short-term sentiment with the price staying above the zone being more
bullish and below being more bearish. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today, we have the FOMC Policy Decision. Tomorrow, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Analysis: Key Levels and AI-Assisted Price Prediction 🚀

Current Overview

Tesla (TSLA) stock is showing retracement strength in pre-market after initial sell-side pressure, with price approaching today’s VWAP at $468.74. While price is attempting to recover, the overall bias remains cautious as sellers dominated early sessions. Traders must closely watch Tesla’s reaction to key resistance and support levels to determine the next move.

🔑 Key Price Levels to Watch

1. Support Zones:
   • 464.18: Immediate support where buyers have stepped in.
   • 459.64: Next lower support, where price may test bullish resolve.
   • 446.82: A major naked level and a potential target for shorts.

2. Intraday Resistance:

   • 468.74: Today’s VWAP—a critical level to watch for bullish continuation.
   • 474.00: Today’s Point of Control (POC)—a key area where price may stabilize or face resistance.

3. Extended Resistance Levels:

   • 479.86: Yesterday’s POC—a likely magnet if buyers regain control.
   • 481.50: Yesterday’s VAH—another major upside target for bulls.
   • 484.50: A second VWAP deviation from yesterday, a prime fakeout zone for liquidity hunts.

Volumetric Stats Summary 📊

Early volumetric stats reveal strong sell-side activity in the first sessions, but recent bars show buyer absorption and temporary bullish momentum near support levels. Traders should watch for:

• Sustained buying strength above VWAP at $468.74 to confirm the bullish case.
• Rejection at resistance zones like 474.00 or 479.86, which could trigger another leg down.

These stats matter because they reveal where buyers and sellers are active, helping traders identify potential reversals, continuations, and liquidity traps.

AI Directional Bias Score: -1 (Neutral to Slightly Bearish)

Why?

• Sellers controlled earlier price action, but buyers have shown signs of stepping in near support.
• For the bearish bias to hold, price must reject VWAP and stall near 474.00 or 479.86.

Trading Scenarios for TSLA

1. Bullish Scenario:

   • Price sustains above 468.74 VWAP and clears resistance at 474.00.
   • Targets: 479.86 and 481.50 for bullish continuation.

2. Bearish Scenario:

   • Price rejects 468.74 or fails at 474.00, signaling renewed seller strength.
   • Targets: 464.18, followed by 459.64 and 446.82 for a deeper test.

3. Fakeout Alert:

   • A rally toward 484.50 could attract liquidity and reverse quickly, creating a short-term selling opportunity.

Key Takeaways for Tesla Traders 🚦

• VWAP at $468.74 is the immediate level to watch for bullish or bearish confirmation.
• Resistance at 474.00 and 479.86 offers opportunities for both short and long positions.
• If sellers regain control, watch for downside targets near 446.82 as a key area for long setups.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage your risk effectively. 📊

Will Tesla sustain this retracement or reverse back down? Visit ForexLive.com, keep an eye on these key levels and stay ahead of the market! 🚀

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.