Higher interest rates aren’t yet hitting the consumer hard or bringing inflation back to target, according to today’s April PCE report. Inflation rose 4.4% y/y in an acceleration from 4.2% previously while personal spending surged 0.8% in the month.

Bank of America has reaffirmed its base case expectation that the Federal Reserve will not implement a rate hike in June, though the bank maintains an inclination towards a hike in the future, noting that it’s a „close call“.

According to BofA, three conditions need to be met for a Fed rate hike: 1) strong economic data, 2) an increase in the debt ceiling, and 3) subdued regional bank stress.

The bank also believes that inflation remains too persistent for the Fed to commit to a prolonged pause in rate increases. Even if the Fed decides to forego a rate increase in June, BofA suggests that it will keep the possibility of a July hike on the table.

Separately, Goldman Sachs economists continue to chase their tails. After calling for a pause after the March bank stress and then seeing a hike anyway, they’re now teetering with their June call.

„While we continue to expect the Fed to pause deletion in June, this morning’s stronger-than-expected consumer spending and inflation data and the wide range of views by FOMC participants on the appropriate policy path make this a close call,“ Goldman Sachs economists wrote today.

The market is pricing in a 70% chance of a hike in June and a 100% chance of a hike in either June or July.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• US futures nudge a little higher on the day
• Dollar continues to sit a little lower in quiet trading
• ECB’s Lane: Food inflation will reverse later this year
• ECB’s Lane: No sense of certainty on terminal rate
• ECB’s Vujčić: Inflation momentum is still persistent
• UK April retail sales +0.5% vs +0.3% m/m expected
• France May consumer confidence 83 vs 84 expected

Markets:

• GBP leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities a little higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields down 2.6 bps to 3.788%
• Gold up 0.6% to $1,952.39
• WTI crude up 0.9% to $72.48
• Bitcoin down 0.1% to $26,450

It was a quiet session for the most part as there wasn’t any key headlines in Europe. In terms of data, we saw UK retail sales come in slightly better in April but after a softer revision to the March numbers.

But the story of the day is a retracement in dollar gains as the risk mood holds up ahead of the long weekend. US debt ceiling talks look to be making progress and that is helping to see US futures climb after a bit more of a cautious and tentative start.

The dollar tracked lower in European morning trade and continued that throughout the session, with the pound and antipodeans benefiting the most. GBP/USD is up 0.5% to 1.2380 while AUD/USD is up 0.5% to 0.6538 after a test of 0.6500 earlier in the day.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY is down slightly to 139.75 after a rejection at 140.00 with lower bond yields also placing a drag on the pair. EUR/USD is up just a touch by 0.2% to 1.0745 and USD/CAD down 0.2% to 1.3605 on the day.

It’s now over to US PCE price data to see what that has to offer, before markets start to gear towards the long weekend and then month-end trading next week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Well, the calls are coming in now after the UK inflation data this week. In case you missed it:

• Markets move to price in an additional rate hike by the BOE after UK CPI data

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Biden expects Congress to raise the debt ceiling

Well, it’s not done until it is done but then again, this has been an issue that almost always runs down to the wire over the last few decades. I definitely thought there might be more drama for markets and a better potential opportunity to fade the panic, but we’ll see.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Dow futures are also seen up 0.1% and Nasdaq futures up 0.3% at the moment as we start to see light gains on the session now. In trading yesterday, there was a heavy contrast in the mood in Wall Street. The Dow suffered losses once again while the Nasdaq surged higher as it owed much to Nvidia’s strong performance after its solid earnings report.

In the bigger picture, overall sentiment looks to be hinging quite a bit on the US debt ceiling talks at the moment.

Tech stocks though have continued to defy the odds, so that might make things a bit tricky as we look towards the long weekend. But at least for now, there are murmurs that debt ceiling talks might take a more optimistic turn (not too surprising) and that is also perhaps helping to see some mild positivity creep in ahead of US trading later.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is slightly lower on the day but it doesn’t take away from the gains so far this week, as the greenback continues to sit in the driver’s seat ahead of the US PCE price data later. The technical levels outlined yesterday (as per below) are still very much in play and we have to see if dollar bulls have the appetite to chase any breaks before the long weekend.

Elsewhere, Treasury yields are also just slightly lower on the day with 10-year yields down 2.8 bps to 3.786% at the moment. Meanwhile, equities are keeping steadier with S&P 500 futures now up 0.1% after a more tentative start. European stocks on the other hand have seen the early advance wiped out to be little changed now.

US debt ceiling talks are still clouding markets for the most part, at least in terms of equities sentiment that is. However, there are growing murmurs of positive developments and so we have to see if that will keep up ahead of the X-date – which I would estimate is some time during the first week of June.

Anyway, here are the levels to watch for in dollar pairs as highlighted yesterday and are still applicable now:

• EUR/USD at two month-lows as sellers hold their nerve
• USD/JPY continues to look poised in hunt towards 140.00 mark
• GBP/USD starts to get dragged back into the mud again
• USD/CAD buyers hopeful on latest upside break
• AUD/USD looks towards 0.6500 again in latest downside break
• NZD/USD looks for downside break in fall to lowest levels this year

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This adds to the earlier decision from Fitch here, which is pretty much the same story. DBRS Morningstar notes that the review with negative implications „reflects the risk of Congress failing to increase or suspend the debt ceiling in a timely manner“. Adding that:

„While we still expect Congress to raise the debt ceiling before Treasury runs out of available resources, there is a risk of Congressional inaction as the X-date approaches. DBRS Morningstar would consider any missed payment of interest or principal as a default. In such a scenario, the relevant U.S. Issuer Ratings would be downgraded to “Selective Default.” „

You can check out the full post here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Rates are clearly in restrictive territory
• ECB has already completed most of the rate hike journey
• To monitor passthrough of „massive“ past rate hikes

It seems quite clear now that the ECB isn’t going to give a firm answer on when they would expect rates to peak. Given the resilience the economy to start the year, they have room to work with to be more data dependent and that is precisely what they are doing. A June rate hike, and arguably July, is a given but whether or not there is one more after that remains to be seen.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It is certainly not been a good week for the kiwi whatsoever. Not only did the RBNZ’s dovish tilt weigh on the currency, the more negative risk mood in markets also compounded the declines in the past few sessions. Add in a stronger dollar to the equation, and NZD/USD sellers are indeed looking for a downside break after a couple of months of consolidation:

The pair had been ranging somewhat between 0.6100 to 0.6300 mostly with a couple of attempts in early April and mid-May to chase a move towards 0.6400. Those ultimately faltered and now with a break back below 0.6100 – the lowest levels since November last year, we could see the downside momentum gather pace.

The next key target will be the 50.0 Fib retracement level around 0.6025 with the 0.6000 mark also in focus for sellers.

A lot will hinge on the daily and weekly closes today and tomorrow respectively, so just keep an eye out for that and how that will play into the technical picture for the pair.

But with the dollar continuing to stay more poised across the board and risk sentiment still looking skittish outside of tech stocks, it isn’t boding well for the kiwi as we look towards the latter stages of the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On the daily chart below, we can
see that the downtrend remains strong in the EURUSD pair. The multiple failures
to break the 1.1033 high, coupled with stronger than expected US data and a
hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations, led to a big selloff. The double
top at the
1.1033 high may take us all the way back to the 1.0533 support, which is also the neckline of
the pattern.

In such a scenario, EUR/USD would
erase all the post-SVB collapse rally, which is something we’ve also been
seeing across the other markets. The divergence between the two tops with the MACD also strengthens the case for a
return back to the 1.0533 level.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see how the EURUSD has been trading lower within a falling channel with clear
swing highs and swing lows. The price has now reached the first downside target
in the form of the bottom of the previous divergent rising channel. We should
see a bounce on this level as the price has been diverging with the MACD
falling right into this support. This should be a signal that the bearish
momentum is waning, and we may see a pullback before the next fall.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price recently bounced from the lower bound of the channel to
trade higher into the upper bound of the channel. The 50% Fibonacci
retracement level stalled the rally and after a bit of
consolidation, EUR USD broke lower, retested the support
turned resistance and continued lower.

The buyers should now lean on the
1.0710 support with defined risk just below it and target the 1.0760
resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price to break
through the support to target the 1.0533 level, but we should also see them
lean on the 1.0760 resistance for a better risk to reward setup.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.