The market has priced in 70 bps more of tightening through September, including an 89% chance of 25 bps on May 11.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Below is a list of the major announcements by day:
Monday, April 24
Tuesday, April 25
Wednesday, April 26
Thursday, April 27
Friday, April 28
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Markets:
It was a mixed trading session for the most part, with markets not really following much of a theme.
In terms of data, UK retail sales disappointed once again and that is keeping the pound pressured. Meanwhile, euro area PMI data saw a contrast between services and manufacturing activity but on the balance of things, it points to a more solid recovery in economic conditions in the region.
That failed to really light a spark in the euro though, as it mainly just reaffirms the ECB’s current policy conviction. That said, EUR/USD is keeping steady around 1.0975 and is up from around 1.0945 earlier in the session.
GBP/USD is a laggard, slipping from around 1.2430 to 1.2380 before keeping around 1.2390 levels at the moment. USD/JPY traded more sideways as Treasury yields are holding slightly lower on the day, with the pair hovering around 133.80 to 134.00 mostly.
The antipodeans are also holding lower, with AUD/USD down 0.7% to just under 0.6700 upon a rejection of its 200-day moving average at 0.6741 with AUD/JPY also trading back under 90.00 on a rejection of its own 100-day moving average.
Elsewhere, equities were sluggish throughout as the back and forth action this week is leaving traders with little appetite it would seem. European indices are slightly lower after a flattish open while US futures are also just slightly lower, adding a little to yesterday’s retreat.
In other markets, gold is keeping lower by nearly 1% to $1,987 as the state of flux in and around the $2,000 mark continues to play out. Meanwhile, WTI nudged lower initially to test its 100-day moving average at $76.80 before climbing back up to $77.35 now and holding marginally higher on the day.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
On the daily chart below for the Nasdaq, we can
see that the market consolidated just below the key 12274 resistance. The moving
averages are still crossed to the upside keeping the bullish trend intact, but
they are starting to converge as the rangebound price action has been going on
for almost a month now.
The latest economic data are not
supportive for the bulls as the US
Retail Sales missed expectations across the board and the Jobless
Claims keep showing increases week after week. Today the market will focus on
the US PMIs and if those miss expectations
as well, then we may see the trend turning around.
Nasdaq
technical analysis
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the consolidation below the key resistance. The moving
averages on this timeframe have crossed to the downside, although they are not
a reliable signal in a range.
The market is still uncertain
where to go next, so the economic data will be very important. The buyers will
need to see benign data, while the sellers will want to see more deterioration.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the clear range created just below the key resistance. Generally, it’s best
to sit out when the market starts ranging and wait for a clear breakout
supported by a fundamental catalyst. Today we have the US PMIs so we may have a
catalyst, but the price will also need to break on either side before the
buyers and sellers can join.
A miss in the data with the price
breaking lower would give the sellers conviction to pile in and target the
swing low at 11650. A beat and the price breaking above the top of the range
will give the buyers conviction to jump onboard and target the next resistance
at 13100.
This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.
As they are still on the path of tightening policy further to guard against high inflation, these remarks are pretty much just a supportive element. If and when price pressures do ease and they can start to look at pausing, the narrative can quickly switch around especially if economic conditions worsen rapidly.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The pound is doing that thing where it is following the action in commodity currencies again today, with it being one of the worst performing major currencies alongside the antipodeans. GBP/USD is now down 0.5% to 1.2380, sitting near the lows for the day.
The pair had already come under pressure from the softer UK retail sales data earlier and that is perhaps doing a number on the pound today as well. And with the dollar seen firmer across the board (except against the yen), that is seeing cable under a bit of pressure in European trading.
That said, in the big picture, the pair is still very much caught in a bit of a bind between support closer to 1.2345 and the 1.2500 mark for the time being:
And if you zoom out to the weekly chart, one can argue that the pair is essentially caught in between key support (6 January low) near 1.1840 and key resistance (14 December high) around 1.2446 for now.
That pretty much outlines a sort of confined trading range for cable in the grand scheme of things, until we get a firm break on one side or the other.
It doesn’t really help that the BOE is still being forced to hike that little bit more while markets are at the same time expecting the Fed to relent and head to the sidelines after May.
That is putting both dollar and pound sentiment sort of in the same basket when it comes to central bank outlook. The lack of policy divergence isn’t really helping to give a clear shot for traders as they take aim at GBP/USD.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Here’s a snapshot of things now:
For me, it’s a testament to how mixed trading sentiment has been all through the week. There is still US PMI data to follow later today and that is the last data hurdle before the weekend. The euro area PMI data earlier doesn’t seem like it is having much of an impact as traders look to be slowly gearing towards key central bank decisions in May instead.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
All of the above are not anything new and do not contribute much to the debate between 25 bps and 50 bps for the May meeting. Carry on as you will.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Markets:
It was more of a risk averse session with the bulk of the moves coming right at the European open, as stocks edged lower and bond yields falling in tandem. It seemed like broader markets are worried about higher rates weighing on economic prospects but that sentiment isn’t really shared by the FX market so far.
The dollar is sitting more mixed and mostly little changed, with notable moves among major currencies being rather sparse on the session. The kiwi continues to sit lower, after falling in Asia trading following the softer NZ CPI data. NZD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6175 but is off its earlier lows of 0.6150 at least.
In other markets, equities retreated early on in Europe with regional equities stumbling in the opening hour to be down between 0.4% to 0.8% mostly. US futures also fell simultaneously with the drop led by tech, before consolidating losses thereafter.
The drop in stocks coincided with a nudge lower in Treasury yields as well, with a fall observed across the curve. It might be a reaction to global growth worries but 10-year yields also ran into its 100-day moving average at 3.61% this week, so that might be something to consider as well.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
On the daily chart below for
EURUSD, we can see that with the latest rejection of the February high at
1.1033, we may have a possible double
top in play.
The price failed to break above the high as the US
Retail Sales missed expectations across the board giving the
market some recessionary vibes.
The buyers though keep leaning on
the red long period moving
average, so a break below that MA would be significant for the sellers. The
next thing to watch is the US Jobless Claims report todays and the US PMIs
tomorrow. In case the data deteriorates further, we are likely to see another
selloff as the market may switch from the rates trade to the recession trade.
On the other hand, benign data may keep weighing on the US Dollar and push the
pair higher.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price is trading within a rising channel. At the moment, the price
is consolidating near the lower bound of the channel with a bearish bias given
that the moving averages are crossed to the downside.
We can also see that the whole
rally within the channel is diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of a
weakening momentum, and we can generally see pullbacks or reversals. If this is
a pullback, then the price should bounce from the lower bound of the channel
and rally towards the upper bound. On the other hand, if the price breaks below
the lower bound, then we may see a reversal and the price falling towards the
1.0759 support as the first target.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the current mini range. This is the one to watch in conjunction with the
economic data results. If the data is benign and the price breaks above the
range, then we should see the buyers piling in and the upper bound of the
channel being targeted.
On the other hand, if the data
deteriorates and the price breaks below the range and the lower bound of the
channel, then the sellers should jump onboard and extend the selloff to the
next support at 1.0759.
This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.