<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This relates to the enhanced dollar swap facility that was established overnight, in which the frequency will be increased to daily from the typical 7 days. In case you missed the headline:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-boe-boj-ecb-snb-boc-to-coordinate-action-to-enhance-liquidity-provision-20230319/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Fed, BoE, BoJ, ECB, SNB, BoC to coordinate action to enhance liquidity provision</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The Japan defence ministry adds that the missile flew to an altitude of 50km and covered a range of 800km before splashing into the sea.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The provocations and boldness continues from North Korea and the latest one is another apparent protest to the ongoing military exercise between South Korea and the US.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Its an active central bank calendar coming up on Monday, 20 March 2023 during the Asia session. </p><p>At 1810 US Eastern time the Reserve Bank of Australia:</p><ul><li> Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets)</li><li>speaking on: „Long and Variable Monetary Policy Lags“</li></ul><p>Expectations are rising of an RBA pause at their next meeting, April 4:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/westpac-forecast-an-rba-rate-pause-at-the-april-4-meeting-20230317/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“ data-article-link=“true“>Westpac forecast an RBA rate pause at the April 4 meeting</a></li></ul><p>But its not unanimous:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/anz-maintain-their-forecast-for-an-rba-rate-hike-at-the-april-and-may-policy-meetings-20230317/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“ data-article-link=“true“>ANZ maintain their forecast for an RBA rate hike at the April and May policy meetings</a></li></ul><p>At 1750 US Eastern time we get the ‚Summary‘ from the BOJ March meeting. This was Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda’s final meeting. Policy was left unchanged at this meeting:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-leaves-policy-unchanged-as-widely-expected-20230310/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“ data-article-link=“true“>Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected</a></li></ul><p>At 2115 we get the monthly Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting from the People’s Bank of China. I posted a preview here:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/pboc-interest-rate-decision-due-on-monday-analysts-sees-cut-to-support-the-economy-20230316/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>PBOC interest rate decision due on Monday</a></li></ul><p>On Friday the Bank dropped this in:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/pboc-announces-cut-to-banks-reserve-requirement-ratio-by-25-bps-20230317/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>PBOC announces cut to banks‘ reserve requirement ratio by 25 bps</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Sources indicate that UBS is close to finalizing a deal to acquire Credit Suisse, as Swiss and global authorities work to mitigate banking sector contagion and restore confidence in the financial system. The agreement could be reached as early as Sunday.</p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/s/swiss-national-bank/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“7ffdcf63-96f7-446b-abb6-cda662c6ccad“ target=“_blank“>Swiss National Bank</a> (SNB) provided a $50 billion lifeline earlier this week, although Credit Suisse’s stock price, following a brief rally, declined once more. US shares closed on Friday at $2.01, marking a 24.44% drop for the week, with the week’s lowest price at $1.75.</p><p class=“text-align-start“>Meanwhile, in the US, Silicon Valley Bank filed for Chapter 11 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/b/bankruptcy/“ class=“terms__secondary-term“ id=“2b54c285-6f67-4222-99aa-f58b353eea4f“ target=“_blank“>bankruptcy</a> on Friday, one week after regulators shuttered the bank and guaranteed all depositor funds. Signature Bank was closed by regulators last weekend as well, after losing billions in withdrawals due to contagion from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman tweeted on Friday:</p><p>A source familiar with the matter denied BofA interest in Signature. </p><p>

First Republic’s stock price continued its downward trend on Friday, despite a consortium of banks depositing $30 billion into the bank just a day earlier. After hitting a low of $17.53 on Wednesday, the stock rallied to a high of $40 on Thursday. However, it reversed course on Friday, closing at $23.03, a 14.07% decrease. In after-hours trading, the price slid even further to a low of $19.49. Moody’s downgrades First Republic Bank to B2 from Baa1.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>According to Moody’s, the downgrade and ratings reflect „the deterioration in the bank’s financial profile and the significant challenges it faces“. Adding that it is maintaining ratings under review for a downgrade as well. For some context, a drop from B2 to Baa1 is straight up putting the credit profile of First Republic Bank into speculative and high risk territory.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There really should be ratings agencies for ratings agencies themselves at this point. They have been so out of it ever since the events leading up to the global financial crisis.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-stocks-close-lower-on-the-day-nasdaq-rises-44-this-week-dow-has-a-small-decline-20230317/“>US stocks close lower on the day. Nasdaq rises 4.4% this week. Dow has a small decline.</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/wti-crude-oil-futures-settle-at-6674-20230317/“>WTI crude oil futures settle at $66.74. The fall this week is the largest since April 2020</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/wsj-timiraos-the-fed-decision-likely-be-dependent-on-market-response-in-coming-days-20230317/“>WSJ Timiraos: The Fed decision likely be dependent on market response in coming days</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/credit-suisse-at-least-4-global-banks-have-put-restrictions-on-new-dealings-w-cs-group-20230317/“>Credit Suisse: At least 4 global banks have put restrictions on new dealings w/ CS group</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/gasparino-bidding-for-svb-has-begun-today-20230317/“>Gasparino: Bidding for SVB has begun today</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecb-insider-id-support-another-50-bp-hike-unless-20230317/“>ECB Insider: I’d support another 50 BP hike, unless…</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-oil-rigs-down-1-to-589-but-nat-gas-rigs-move-up-9-in-the-current-week-20230317/“>Baker Hughes oil rigs down -1 to 589, but nat gas rigs move up 9 in the current week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/european-indices-close-the-day-and-the-week-sharply-lower-20230317/“>European indices close the day and the week sharply lower</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-leading-index-for-february-03-versus-03-estimate-20230317/“>US leading index for February -0.3% versus -0.3% estimate</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/university-of-michigan-sentiment-preliminary-for-march-634-versus-670-last-month-20230317/“>University of Michigan sentiment preliminary for March 63.4 versus 67.0 last month</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/banks-woes-boost-bitcoin-performance-20230317/“>Banks‘ Woes Boost Bitcoin Performance</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/fmas23-the-importance-of-networking-for-traders-20230317/“>FMAS:23 – The Importance of Networking for Traders</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-industrial-production-00-versus-02-estimate-20230317/“>US February industrial production 0.0% versus 0.2% estimate</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-international-transactions-in-securities-january-2023-declined-by-1618-billion-20230317/“>Canada international transactions in securities January 2023 declined by $-16.18 billion</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-producer-prices-for-february-1-4-yoy-versus-50-last-month-revised-from-54-20230317/“>Canada producer prices for February 1 .4% YoY versus 5.0% last month (revised from 5.4%)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/svb-financial-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy-20230317/“>SVB Financial files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-jpy-is-the-strongest-and-the-usd-is-the-weakest-as-the-north-american-session-begins-20230317/“>The JPY is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the North American session begins</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-dollar-trims-losses-as-markets-remain-anxious-20230317/“>ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar trims losses as markets remain anxious</a></li></ul><p>US rates moved sharply lower today as banking concerns along with hopes for a more dovish Fed next week, sent funds flowing into US treasuries. </p><p>Looking at the US treasury curve, the:</p><ul><li>2 year: 3.387%, down -29.3 basis points</li><li>5 year: 3.504%, down -23.2 basis points</li><li>10 year: 3.439%, down -26 basis points</li><li>30 year: 3.627%, down -8.2 basis points. </li></ul><p>For the week, the yields were sharply lower as traders reacted to the banking crises in Switzerland and the US. Today Silicon Valley Bank filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Meanwhile First Republic, which rallied yesterday on the back of a syndicate of US banks depositing $30 billion into their bank, saw it’s price tumbled -32.8% or $11.24 to $23.03.</p><p>Looking at the changes in US debt yields this week</p><ul><li>2 year -76 basis points. That is the sharpest one week fall since 2001 </li><li>5 year -47 basis points. Sharpest week fall since 2008.</li><li>10 year -14.7 basis points</li><li>30 year -7.9 basis points</li></ul><p>The 2-10 year spread this week steepened by 50 basis points to -39 basis points. That spread was as negative as -108 basis points last week. It was the biggest steepened her since 2001.</p><p>Looking at other markets there were huge moves in gold, silver, crude oil and Bitcoin this week:</p><ul><li>Gold today is trading up $65.99 or 3.45% at $1987.85. This week the price moved up $120 or 6.45% held by the sharply lower interest rates. The next target comes against the swing high from April 2022 at $1998.39. The high price for 2022 reach $2070.42.</li><li>Silver is trading up $0.86 or 3.96% at $22.58. For the trading week, the prices up $2.06 or 10.07%. The gain of over 10% is the largest increase since August 3, 2020</li><li>Crude oil fell $1.92 today at $66.43. For the week, the price fell $10.27 or -13.39% the decline is the largest since April 2020</li><li>Bitcoin is trading at $26,846 and at the highest level since June 2022. For the trading week, the price is up $4652 or 20.97%. The price bitcoin is closing above its 200 week moving average for the first time since August 2022</li></ul><p>In the forex today, the JPY is ending as the strongest of the major currencies, while the CAD is the weakest. The JPY benefited from flight to safety flows. The CAD was the weakest helped by lower oil prices and PPI data which was lower than expectations. The fall in PPI data is positive for future CPI. </p><p>For the trading week, the USD moved lower against all the major currency pairs with the exception of the a rise vs the CHF:</p><ul><li>The DXY fell -0.74%. The largest decline since January 9</li></ul><p>Versus the major currencies, the USD had weekly changes of:</p><ul><li>EUR, -0.235%</li><li>JPY, -2.39% (largest decline since January 9)</li><li>GBP, -1.18%</li><li>CHF, +0.46%</li><li>CAD, -0.65%</li><li>AUD, -1.79% (largest decline since January</li><li>NZD, -2.06% (largest decline since November 2022)</li></ul><p>The EURUSD still moved lower despite a 50 basis point hike by the ECB on Thursday. Next week both the Fed and the BOE will announce interest rate decisions. </p><p>Finally, in the stock markets this week, European shares fell sharply. In the US the NASDAQ index had a solid gain over 4%, but the Dow Industrial Average fell modestly. In Asia Pacific, China’s Shanghai composite index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose , but Japan’s Nikkei and Australia’s S&amp;P/ASX index both fell over to percent</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average: -0.15%</li><li>S&amp;P index: +1.43%</li><li>NASDAQ index: +4.41%</li><li>German DAX: -4.28%</li><li>France’s CAC: -4.09%</li><li>UK’s FTSE 100: -5.33%</li><li>Spain’s Ibex: -6.09%</li><li>Italy’s FTSE MIB, -6.55%</li><li>Nikkei 225, -2.88%</li><li>Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, +1.03%</li><li>China’s Shanghai composite index, +0.63%</li><li>Australia’s S&amp;P/ASX index, -2.1%</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The major US indices are closing the day with declines across the board. The declines were led by the Dow but the S&amp;P also fell by 1%. The Nasdaq was the best of the worst. </p><p>For the week, the pattern was the same as flow of funds moved into the big tech cap stocks of the Nasdaq. The Dow fell on the week and the S&amp;P had a modest gain. </p><p>A look at the final numbers for the day shows:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average fell -384.52 points or -1.19% at 31861.97</li><li>S&amp;P index fell -43.64 points or -1.10% at 3916.65</li><li>NASDAQ index fell -86.75 points or -0.74% at 11630.52</li><li>Russell 2000 fell -45.34 points or -2.56% at 1725.89</li></ul><p>for the trading week:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average closed near unchanged at -0.15% </li><li>S&amp;P index closed up 1.43%</li><li>NASDAQ index was the big winner with a gain of 4.41%</li></ul><p>The small cap Russell 2000 was actually the worst performer with a decline of -2.64%</p><p>For the NASDAQ index after declining below its 100 day moving average last Friday and again on Monday, the price rebounded to close above its higher 200 day moving average on Tuesday (at 11395.53 currently). Although the price traded above and below the 200 day moving average on Wednesday and Thursday, it took off on Thursday before correcting lower today. Nevertheless being above the 200 day moving average is a positive from a technical perspective for the index. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>WTI crude futures are settling down $1.61 or 2.36% at $66.74.</p><p>The high price extended up to $69.83. The low price traded to a new low going back to December 2021 at $65.38. On Wednesday, the low price reached $65.65. Yesterday the low price bottom just above that level at $65.71.</p><p>For the trading week, the price of crude oil is down -13.30% or $-10.20. That’s the largest one week decline since April 2020. The settlement price was just above the 200 week moving average at $66.14. Next week, the 200 week MA will be a key barometer for buyers and sellers. Stay above the MA level is more bullish. Move below will be more bearish. </p><p>Be aware. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>IN trading today, the EURUSD moved higher in the Asian session, fell in the European morning session , and is moving higher in the US session. </p><p>The move has taken the price positive on the week (it closed at 1.0636 last Friday). Ironically, the close from last week is right near the midpoint of the week’s trading range. However, this week, the pair has its share of ups and downs. </p><ul><li>On Monday the price initially moved higher than lower and then back higher</li><li>Tuesday the pattern was lower than higher.</li><li>On Wednesday after reaching a new high for the week at 1.07592, the price tumbled all the way down to 1.05147 as Credit Suisse became a catalyst and provide a downside tailwind. Expectations for a softer ECB was priced in. </li><li>Thursday the ECB raised rates by a greater than expected 50 basis points. Once again, there was a a volatile up, down and back up day. The price closed higher.</li><li>Today, once again the price moved up and down and back up again. The final move to the upside has taken the pair to new intraday highs.</li></ul><p>Technically, the price rise today has now seen the pair extend above its 100 hour moving average at 1.06583, and the 61.8% retracement of the week’s trading range at 1.06658.</p><p>Today’s catalysts has been lower US rates which has weakened the US dollar. The two year yield is now down 30 basis points at 3.831%. The 10 year yield is down 20 basis points to 3.382%. Yesterday the trend in rates was the opposite with the US yields moving higher.</p><p>What now?</p><p>The bias more positive above the 100 hour moving average 1.0658. On the top side, there is a swing area between 1.06908 and 1.0704. Get above that area would increase the bullish bias.</p><p>Alternatively, move back below the 100 hour <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/m/moving-average/“ class=“terms__secondary-term“ id=“d39a8864-434f-487e-bd1e-f9b895111210″ target=“_blank“>moving average</a> and then below the 200 hour moving average 1.06278, and sellers are back in control.</p><p>Next week the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/f/federal-reserve/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“0139b451-c49a-48a1-8365-838a83595a97″ target=“_blank“>Federal Reserve</a> will meet and announce their rate decision on Wednesday. They also will release the dot plot on rate expectations. </p><p>Currently, the terminal rate implied by the market is below 5% at 4.95%. Recall in December when the last dot plot was announced, the Fed officials had the terminal rate at 5.11%. So traders have taken out one 25 basis point hike from that December. Having said that, a week or two ago, the expectations for the terminal rate was upwards toward 5.75%. People were talking about a terminal rate of 6% or higher.</p><p>That is more dovish of course, but even more dovish is the futures contract for January 2024 are now implying that the Fed will lower rates to 3.95%. That is down about 100 basis points from the terminal rate.</p><p>Before the Fed went into the blackout, comments were about the Fed pushing rates toward 5.25% (and for some above), and then being rates steady for an extended period of time (and certainly not before the end of 2023). Now, the market sees the Fed rate moving down by 100 bps. </p><p>Wednesday will certainly be an interesting day. The volatility seen this week may certainly be a precursor for what we can expect.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Market sentiment:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/are-we-actually-getting-more-questions-than-answers-at-this-point-20230317/“>Are we actually getting more questions than answers at this point?</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-nerves-are-starting-to-show-up-in-markets-again-20230317/“>The nerves are starting to show up in markets again</a></li></ul><p>Inflation:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japans-trade-union-confederation-says-agreed-to-average-of-38-wage-hikes-for-fy2023-20230317/“>Japan’s trade union confederation says agreed to average of 3.8% wage hikes for FY2023</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-february-final-cpi-85-vs-85-yy-prelim-20230317/“>Eurozone February final CPI +8.5% vs +8.5% y/y prelim</a></li></ul><p>ECB:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-simkus-says-terminal-rate-hasnt-been-reached-yet-20230317/“>ECB’s Simkus says terminal rate hasn’t been reached yet</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-villeroy-we-did-what-we-said-we-would-do-on-rates-20230317/“>ECB’s Villeroy: We did what we said we would do on rates</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-kazimir-we-are-not-at-the-finish-line-20230317/“>ECB’s Kazimir: We are not at the finish line</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/morgan-stanley-now-forecasts-ecb-terminal-rate-of-375-previously-4-20230317/“>Morgan Stanley now forecasts ECB terminal rate of 3.75% (previously 4%)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/hsbc-sees-two-more-25-bps-rate-hikes-by-the-ecb-to-follow-20230317/“>HSBC sees two more 25 bps rate hikes by the ECB to follow</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/goldman-sachs-expects-ecb-to-hike-rates-by-25-bps-in-may-next-20230317/“>Goldman Sachs expects ECB to hike rates by 25 bps in May next</a></li></ul><p>China:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/pboc-announces-cut-to-banks-reserve-requirement-ratio-by-25-bps-20230317/“>PBOC announces cut to banks‘ reserve requirement ratio by 25 bps</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-president-xi-to-travel-to-russia-on-20-22-march-20230317/“>China president Xi to travel to Russia on 20-22 March</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>JPY leads, USD lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&amp;P 500 futures down 0.2%</li><li>US 10-year yields 8 bps 3.608%</li><li>Gold up 0.8% to $1,933.94</li><li>WTI crude up 0.5% to $68.68</li><li>Bitcoin up 8.8% to $26,909</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It was a quiet session mostly but things are starting to heat up again now as we look towards US trading.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There was a sense of calm in markets early on in European trading, with bond yields sitting comfortably higher and equities also observing slight gains. However, all of that quickly dissipated as the nerves are starting to show up again with traders and investors still on high alert on the whole global banking situation.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Major players on Wall Street and the Fed may have helped to induce some calm with regards to First Republic Bank but we’ll see in the session ahead whether or not that will be enough to keep the shorts away.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As we look towards the session ahead, bond yields are falling off and equities are being pushed lower as the mixed fortunes this week continue to play out.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In FX, the dollar is slightly weaker on the balance of things but has seen its early losses pared somewhat now. EUR/USD was up to around 1.0670 and hanging around large option expiries before dropping back to 1.0630, still up 0.2% on the day though.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, USD/JPY is keeping pressured and down over 100 pips to 132.60 amid lower bond yields. GBP/USD was also seen up to around 1.2175 earlier before coming back down to be little changed around 1.2130 currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, AUD/USD is still up 0.6% to 0.6690 levels and down just slightly from its earlier levels around 0.6700-10 mostly in European morning trade.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There’s still plenty to play for before the end of the week, so now we move over to North America to find out what the next twist will be.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.