<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It all started on the morning of 24 February 2022:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/putin-has-announced-a-special-military-operation-20220224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Putin has announced a Special Military Operation</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ukraine-capital-kyiv-has-declared-a-state-of-emergency-20220223/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Ukraine capital Kyiv has declared a State of Emergency</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ukraine-says-that-kyiv-is-under-attack-from-cruise-and-ballistic-missiles-20220224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Ukraine says that Kyiv is under attack from cruise and ballistic missiles</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/nato-confirms-officially-that-an-invasion-of-ukraine-has-begun-20220224/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>NATO confirms officially that an invasion of Ukraine has begun</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It is now a historic day for the entire world and things have never really been the same when it comes to geopolitical relations across the globe. Russia has since been heavily isolated by sanctions and China, while mostly trying to stay on the fence, has also seen recent relations with the US take a turn for the worse – though that has been coming for a while.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, the struggle is continuing for the commonfolk – especially those caught up in the war and neighbouring countries. It is an extremely tough period for many and I would like to express my deepest sympathies and prayers for those having to go through this difficult ordeal.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I would say that while markets have been quick to dismiss the headlines and move on from the issue, it is one that is still embedded within all of us and it is a reminder to everyone that life should not be taken for granted.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that gold keeps on slowly trending downwards. After the break of the big
upward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> that defined the uptrend since
November 2022, the precious metal just kept on losing ground. </p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> have crossed to the downside signalling a change in trend. The culprit
was the blockbuster <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/“>NFP</a> report and the subsequent hot
key economic data that made the market to reprice higher future interest rates
expectations. Gold is inversely correlated with real yields, so the recent rise
in real yields is giving gold a hard time. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see how gold’s price action has been clean recently with downside extensions
followed by pullbacks to the broken <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>supports</a> turned <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistances</a>. </p><p>If the economic data keep on
surprising upwards, then we will most likely see even lower prices going
forward. On the other hand, if we start to get misses, then the market may
think that the January data was indeed just a blip, and we should see higher
prices instead. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that right now the price is trading around the support zone at 1825. A
clean break below, especially if supported by a fundamental catalyst, will give
sellers conviction for lower lows, possibly finding some support at the 1800
round number. </p><p>For the buyers, on the other
hand, a bigger bounce from the current support accompanied by a new higher high
and the moving averages crossing upwards, should give conviction for a move
towards the resistance at 1855. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price has now fallen to the key 11492 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> where we can also find the 38.2%
<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. This level will be key for both buyers and
sellers. </p><p>Overall, the work for the buyers
is more challenging as the market started to price in a higher terminal rate as
many key economic data came in hot recently and there’s a chance the Fed will
be forced to do more, ultimately causing a recession. </p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> have also crossed to the downside signalling a possible change in
trend. We will have another set of key economic data soon and we will see if
the January data was indeed just a blip, or the Fed has slowed the pace of
hikes too early. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see how the price is founding strong support at the 11492 level. We may see a
little range here until new information comes in and gives the market the
direction. </p><p>A clean break below will give the
sellers more conviction to target possibly the 11000 level, with a further fall
potentially leading to the 2022 low at 10092.</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the little range between the 11632 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> and the 11492 support. A break
above the resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level should give the
buyers some conviction for an upside extension, possibly to the 61.8%
retracement level. </p><p>The moving averages are crossing
upwards, but it may be a false signal as it generally is within a range. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The always awesome Newsquawk US Market Open: NQ outperforms given NVIDIA strength, Gilts lag post-Mann</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2874-us-market-open-nq-outperforms-given-nvidia-strength-gilts-lag-postmann&utm_source=newsquawk&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=us-open“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full Note</a></p><p>Key Points</p><p>European bourses are firmer on the session with a hefty earnings docket dictating action after an uninspiring APAC handover.</p><p>Stateside, futures are broadly-speaking in-fitting with Europe though the NQ +0.7% outperforms given tailwinds from NVIDIA’s after-market update.</p><p>The DXY continues to grind higher at the top-end of 104.30-65 parameters to the mixed fortune of peers; Antipodeans outperform and GBP lags despite Mann.</p><p>Gilts are the incremental laggards post-Mann and down to a new 101.26 session low with the Sonia strip similarly dented, EGBs & USTs in-fitting though incrementally more contained.</p><p>BoE’s Mann says she does not think UK monetary policy is in a restrictive stance particularly.WTI and Brent April futures are consolidating following another hefty session of losses, Henry Hub firmer, spot gold contained but erring lower.</p><p>Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP/PCE Q4 (2nd Estimate), IJC Japanese CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic & Daly, BoE’s Cunliffe, Supply from US, Earning from Moderna.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price has finally broken out of the range between the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 33540 and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 34477. The market is
repricing a higher terminal rate and what may come next is a recession. </p><p>This is bad for the stock market
as we can see from the bearish price action. Once the support at 32684 gives
way, the sellers will have plenty of room to the downside. That level will also
be the last line of defence for the buyers.</p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see the recent breakout of the range and the price bouncing from the previous
low at 33030. We may see a pullback towards the broken support at 33538 that
now may turn into a resistance. There will be also the red long period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> acting as resistance. If the buyers manage to get into the range again,
then we may see another run towards the 34477 resistance. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the resistance at 33538 has also the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. The downward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> should act as the first
resistance for the sellers and the 38.2% Fibonacci level may be the spot where
we will see them piling in. </p><p>The 33538 resistance will be the
last line of defence for the sellers, while a break below the recent low at
33030 should give another flush towards the 32684 level. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Turkey’s central bank cut its key interest rate on Thursday to the lowest in three years, in an extension of the country’s emergency response to its worst earthquake disaster in decades.</p><p>Turkish Weekly Repo Rate Actual 8.5% (Forecast 8%, Previous 9.00%)</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-23/turkey-delivers-smaller-rate-cut-than-forecast-after-earthquakes?utm_source=twitter&utm_content=middleeast&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&sref=1STrqapn“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>BBG</a></p><p>After a two-month pause, the Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Sahap Kavcioglu lowered its one-week repo rate to 8.5% from 9%. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a full percentage-point reduction</p><p>What Bloomberg Economics Says… “The rate cut will likely increase the pressure on the lira, which will curtail the expected deceleration in price gains. As for inflation, the central bank may be relying on strong base-effects to deliver a mechanical deceleration.”</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-shake-up-financial-system-as-xi-jinping-installs-key-associates-1b962796?mod=latest_headlines“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>WSJ Report – </a></p><p>China to Shake Up Financial System as Xi Jinping Installs Key Associates</p><p>_____</p><p>Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing to shake up the leadership of the country’s financial system, installing key associates to run the central bank and reviving a Communist Party body to tighten political control over financial affairs, according to people familiar with the discussions.</p><p>The new PBOC leadership will need to lead the central bank through a turbulent time in China, helping the economy get back on its feet following the scrapping of most zero-Covid restrictions and dealing with the worst property downturn on record to safeguard financial stability.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the buyers couldn’t break the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 4175 as the blockbuster <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/“>NFP
report</a> changed the market expectations of future interest rates. </p><p>The minor upward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> that was acting as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> for the rally was breached as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bullard-at-this-point-sees-policy-rate-in-the-range-of-525-550-as-appropriate-20230216/“>Fed’s
Bullard</a> mentioned that he would be open for a 50 bps hike at the March meeting
and that he sees a higher terminal rate as more appropriate. </p><p>The market will be looking at <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>incoming economic data</a>, especially the next NFP and CPI
reports to decide where to go next. We are in a “good news is bad news”
environment now for the stock market so watch out for more selloffs in case of
hot data. </p><p>In the 4
hour chart below, we can see that the market is founding some short term bottom
as depicted by the multiple wicks around the 4000 level. We may see a pullback
towards the 4060 level where we can also find the 38.2% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. </p><p>That’s
going to be a strong level where we should see sellers piling in. With a break
higher though, we may see the buyers extend the rally towards the broken
trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 4110-4120. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price broke out of the downward trendline. This may be a signal of
a change in momentum as we can also see from the hourly <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> crossing to the upside. </p><p>Once the buyers manage to break
the 4025 level we should see the pullback towards the previously mentioned 4060
resistance. In case this is just a fakeout, sellers will start to pile in again
on the break of the low at 3984. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The always awesome Newsquawk US Market Open report -</p><p><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2872-us-market-open-hawkish-action-continues-prefomc-minuteswilliams-fixed-off-worst-postsupply&utm_source=newsquawk&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=us-open“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Link</a></p><p>Hawkish action continues pre-FOMC Minutes/Williams; fixed off worst post-supply</p><p>European bourses are softer across the board as hawkish price action remains in full swing, US futures contained pre-Minutes.</p><p>DXY remains underpinned by haven dynamics to modest detriment of peers ex-NZD after a 50bp RBNZ hike and guidance for further tightening.</p><p>Core fixed has bounced following well-received EZ/UK supply, in a rebound from marked initial pressure with Bunds printing a fresh YTD trough.</p><p>Commodities are underpressure by the above risk tone/hawkish dynamics with specific drivers limited though geopols remain in focus.</p><p>Looking ahead, highlights include Fed’s Williams, FOMC Minutes (Feb), S. African Budget Presentation, Supply from the US, Earnings from NVIDIA.</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

<p>China’s Wang is on the wires after his meeting with President Putin: Perhaps most notably (well, it’s certainly the headline the squawks were keenest on).. „We Are Ready To Deepen Strategic Cooperation With Russia“</p><p>Headlines – </p><p>OUR RELATIONS WILL NOT SUCCUMB TO PRESSURE FROM THIRD COUNTRIES</p><p>WE ARE READY TO DEEPEN STRATEGIC COOPERATION WITH RUSSIA</p><p>OUR RELATIONS ARE NOT DIRECTED AT ANY THIRD COUNTRY</p><p>OTHER COUNTRIES CANNOT PUT PRESSURE ON OUR RELATIONS</p><p>WE ARE READY TO DEEPEN OUR STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP</p>

This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.