So what happened?

Below is the chart of the price action today. Of not is the low price stalled between the level outlined in the above video from the start of the US trading day. The price spiked up to 1.1175. The current price is at 1.1164.

What next?

The 1.1184 to 1.11897 remains a target on the topside. The 1.1184 level was initiated as a technical level going back to 2021. Other swing highs are going back to August up to 1.11897. The point is that buyers on Wednesday Thursday and Friday stalled near that area. The high price for the year reached in August extended up to the 1.1200 level. That will also be important on the topside.

On the downside, the holding of the 100 hour MA and the swing level has increased the levels importance.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• There is a risk that inflation decline could stall
• There is a risk that labor market could soften

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• BOJ governor Ueda: Japan economy is recovering moderately, although there is some weakness
• BOJ governor Ueda: Recent data confirms economy is moving in line with our outlook
• BOJ governor Ueda: Will carefully communicate thinking behind policy decision with markets
• BOJ governor Ueda: Easy monetary conditions are in place as real rates remain negative
• Gold tops $2,600 as the bulls seek out the next leg higher
• Fed fund futures suggest November is starting to resemble a coin flip again
• What are the main events for today?
• BOE’s Mann: Policy needs to stay restrictive to purge inflationary behaviours
• ECB’s de Guindos: We will have more information in December than in October
• UK August retail sales +1.0% vs +0.4% m/m expected
• Germany August PPI +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• France September business confidence 98 vs 97 prior

Markets:

• GBP leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
• US 10-year yields down 0.4 bps to 3.735%
• Gold up 1.0% to $2,614.02
• WTI crude down 0.3% to $71.72
• Bitcoin up 0.6% to $63,410

The BOJ rounded off the central bank bonanza on the week and that led to some volatile movement in the Japanese yen during the day. USD/JPY dipped to a low of 141.73 ahead of BOJ governor Ueda’s press conference but rallied afterwards from his remarks, climbing up by over 1% to 144.30 levels now.

Ueda more or less dodged any suggestions of an imminent rate hike in October and that is what is arguably weighing on the yen.

He also said that markets remained „unstable“, referring to previous remarks from his colleagues when they were asked about whether or not the conditions were right to hike rates again.

Besides the yen, other major currencies didn’t get up to much during the session. The dollar fell yesterday but is holding its ground today as equities get a bit of a check back following the rally in the day before.

GBP/USD did rise up to a high of 1.3340 after a more upbeat UK retail sales but is now trading back just under 1.3300, up just 0.1% on the day.

With equities being kept in check and bonds also not doing all too much, there’s not much to work with so far for the dollar.

In the commodities space though, gold bulls are making a play as they look to seal a firmer break above $2,600. The precious metal is trading to fresh record highs again, looking poised for the next leg higher. Rock on. 🤘🏼

I wish you all a pleasant weekend and will catch you guys again next week. Have a good one.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On Wednesday, the Fed
finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise.

The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025.

The US Dollar didn’t get a
boost despite the rise in Treasury yields. Now that the decision is behind us,
the focus will be on the economic data.

If we start to see an
improvement, then Treasury yields will likely continue to rise and lead to a
reprising in the dovish expectations supporting the greenback in the
short-term.

Conversely, if the data
weakens, the market will likely go ahead with expecting more 50 bps cuts by
year-end and weighing on the US Dollar.

On the CAD side, the latest
soft Canadian
CPI raised the probabilities for a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting as
BoC’s Macklem hinted to a possibility of delivering larger cuts in case growth
and inflation were to weaken more than expected.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD probed above the key resistance around the 1.36 handle but
eventually got smacked back down. The price action remains choppy as the market
now awaits more data to pick a direction. The buyers will want to see the price
breaking higher to start targeting the 1.38 handle, while the sellers will
likely keep on defending the resistance for now.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the pair is trading in a tight range between the 1.3550 support and
the 1.36 resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking out to the
upside to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers will look
for a break lower to pile in for a drop back into the 1.34 handle.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the choppy price action. There’s not much else to add here as
the market participants will wait for a breakout on either side. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar fell in trading yesterday but there’s no extension to that so far today. Besides USD/JPY, other dollar pairs remain relatively muted after some light extension to the ranges earlier. Here’s a snapshot of things currently:

GBP/USD did nudge up to a high of 1.3340 after the upbeat UK retail sales data but has pared that advance back to 1.3285 currently.

Meanwhile, the other dollar pairs are keeping in narrower ranges and still lacking appetite overall. EUR/USD remains confined with large option expiries here also in play, at least for now.

USD/JPY is the main mover as it looks to clip the 144.00 level next. In the big picture though, the pair is still caught in a series of lower highs in recent times.

The move higher today comes as the BOJ kept monetary policy change unchanged. And Ueda also offered no real suggestions of tightening policy in October next. As things stand, he still claims that markets are „unstable“. And BOJ policymakers have said that as long as markets stay that way, they would be uncomfortable in hiking rates again.

In the bond market, 2-year Treasury yields are seeing a bit of a push and pull on the day. It was down to around 3.57% earlier but is now back up closer to 3.60%. 10-year yields were also marked down to 3.70% at the lows but are now up to just above 3.72%.

As much as the USD/JPY bounce is looking to play out, there’s still limited scope for a major rebound unless dollar sentiment switches up.

Traders are looking to try and see how far they can push the Fed in terms of pricing for November. So, there’s that to consider. And then there’s the 23.6 Fib retracement level of the swing lower from July to the low earlier this month, seen at 144.85. That before larger offers are lined up at the figure level itself at 145.00.

Those will be the bigger levels to watch as we gauge the extent of this latest rebound in the pair.

But again, I would argue it needs to be vindicated by movement in rates as well. So, we’ll see about that.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On Wednesday, the Fed
finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise.

The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025.

The US Dollar didn’t get a
boost despite the rise in Treasury yields. Now that the decision is behind us,
the focus will be on the economic data.

If we start to see an
improvement, then Treasury yields will likely continue to rise and lead to a
reprising in the dovish expectations supporting the greenback in the
short-term.

Conversely, if the data
weakens, the market will likely go ahead with expecting more 50 bps cuts by
year-end and weighing on the US Dollar.

On the GBP side, the BoE
kept interest rates unchanged yesterday and sounded more hawkish than expected
with the markets now pricing just 39 bps of easing by year end.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD managed to rally to a new high following the Fed’s and BoE’s
decisions. From a risk management perspective, the buyers would have a much
better risk to reward setup around the 1.30 handle. The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely wait for the price to fall below the previous high level at
1.3265 to start piling in for a correction lower.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have trendline
defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will
likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for the
continuation of the uptrend. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.30 handle.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add but a move below the 1.3265 level will likely increase
the bearish momentum into the trendline as the sellers are likely to pile in. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

On Wednesday, the Fed
finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise.

The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025.

The US Dollar didn’t get a boost
despite the rise in Treasury yields. Now that the decision is behind us, the
focus will be on the economic data.

If we start to see an
improvement, then Treasury yields will likely continue to rise and lead to a
reprising in the dovish expectations supporting the greenback in the short-term.

Conversely, if the data
weakens, the market will likely go ahead with expecting more 50 bps cuts by
year-end and weighing on the US Dollar.

On the EUR side, the ECB speakers seem to prefer a rate cut in December while the market is pricing a 68% chance of a cut in October nonetheless. The central bank is data-dependent, so that’s what will drive their decisions.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD is back around the 1.12 handle after some choppy price action
following the Fed’s decision. From a risk management perspective, the buyers
would have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline,
although a break of the high will likely see the bullish momentum increasing. The
sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around these levels to position
for a drop into the trendline.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a consolidation right around the 1.1155 level. This might act
as kind of a barometer with the price staying above being more bullish and
staying below being more bearish.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add as the price action has been very choppy and fundamentally
there’s also a good chance to see some strengthening in the USD if the data
starts to improve. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.00%, as expected
• Dollar struggles on the session, equities ramp higher as well
• Weekly update on interest rate expectations
• Fed still on track to cut rates by 125 bps in total for 2024 – Citi
• Goldman Sachs now sees Fed cutting by 25 bps at each meeting until June next year
• ECB’s Schnabel: Sticky services inflation is keeping headline inflation at elevated level
• Eurozone July current account balance €39.6 billion vs €50.0 billion prior
• Switzerland August trade balance CHF 4.56 billion vs CHF 4.89 billion prior

Markets:

• AUD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 1.7%
• US 10-year yields up 2.4 bps to 3.709%
• Gold up 1.1% to $2,587.63
• WTI crude up 0.9% to $71.58
• Bitcoin up 3.9% to $62,558

The central bank bonanza continued with the BOE today and as expected, they left the bank rate unchanged at 5.00%

The pound still rallied in the aftermath though, briefly nudging above 1.3300 to its highest levels since February 2022. GBP/USD is still up 0.6% on the day, keeping closer to 1.3285 currently. The BOE signaled that they remain comfortable in keeping policy restrictiveness and the bank rate vote also revealed just one dissenter (Ramsden did not vote for a rate cut this time).

The odds of a 25 bps rate cut by the BOE for November fell as such. It is now seen at ~63%, down from having been fully priced in before this.

As for the bigger picture in markets today, it’s all about the post-Fed digestion. And that is seeing the dollar fall as equities are soaring on the day.

USD/JPY might be sitting higher as long-end yield are holding up but that’s the only consolation for the dollar. The pair did drop to a low of 142.03 in European morning trade but picked itself up to sit closer to 143.00 now.

As for other dollar pairs, it was more of a straightforward story as the greenback weakened across the board.

EUR/USD moved up from 1.1120 to 1.1160-70 levels while USD/CAD fell from 1.3600 to 1.3533 before holding just above that now. The antipodeans are the ones running away with things as AUD/USD climbs to its best levels for the year. The pair is up 0.9% to 0.6826 now and just off the high earlier of 0.6839.

In the equities space, European indices are posting gains above 1% now with the CAC 40 even bordering near 2% gains on the day. US futures are also ripping higher with S&P 500 futures up 1.7% and Nasdaq futures up 2.2% on the day. After some trepidation yesterday, investors are liking the fact that the Fed did give in to markets with the 50 bps rate cut.

As for commodities, gold is nearing fresh record highs again in a push to $2,587 currently. Meanwhile, silver is up over 3% to above $31 and testing its highest levels since July.

Coming up, we’ll have the US weekly jobless claims to add to the mix.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 5.00%
• Bank rate vote 8-0-1 vs 7-0-2 expected (only Dhingra dissented, wanting to cut by 25 bps)
• Need to be careful not to cut rates too fast or by too much
• Most MPC members think in the absence of material developments, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint would be warranted
• Labour market continued to loosen but that it remained tight by historical standards
• But data quality issues continued to be an area of concern i.e. LFS
• „Range of views“ on inflation persistence among those who voted to keep rates unchanged
• Despite that, the current policy stance was judged to be appropriate
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long
• To monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting
• Full statement

Cable has moved up to its highest levels since February 2022, nudging just above 1.3300 currently. The takeaway from the BOE is that they continue to have worries about inflation and that they are quite comfortable in moving slowly to remove the degree of policy restriction.

The key wording that „monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long“ has not been removed.

Traders had previously ascribed to thinking that the BOE will pause today before cutting again in November. But the odds of that are now at ~63%. So, it isn’t quite set in stone now. Traders had previously fully priced in a 25 bps rate cut for November.

If UK inflation data in September comes in similarly to what we saw yesterday here, there will be growing suggestions that the BOE might have to stay on the sidelines again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As such, they are maintaining their outlook for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November before closing things out with a 25 bps cut in December. The latter is changed as Citi did previously expect the Fed to go by 25 bps yesterday before moving by 50 bps in November and December. But the total in terms of how much the Fed is cutting remains the same.

“Powell noted a number of times that today’s 50bp cut is a “commitment” to not get behind the curve which suggests the bar for further large rate reductions is very low. We continue to see risks as balanced toward a more rapid softening of labor market data and a more aggressive pace of rate cuts.“

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.