Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US NFP
report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the
unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy
that is slowing but still growing.

We will
see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing
hopes or start to worry about a recession. Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell testified to Congress but he didn’t offer anything in terms of forward
guidance as they want to see more data before signalling any action.

The GBP, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. This week, we are seeing a consolidation as
the market awaits the US CPI and Jobless Claims figures tomorrow.

On the monetary policy
front, the BoE
in June left the door open for a rate cut in August with the market probability
standing at 60%. The next UK CPI report on July 17th will likely
decide whether the central bank will be able to deliver the first cut in August
or wait some more time.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD is struggling around the 1.28 resistance as the market awaits the release of
the US CPI and Jobless Claims figures tomorrow. This is where the sellers
continue to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a
drop back into the 1.2635 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.29 handle
next.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk
to reward setup around the 1.2750 level where we can find the confluence
of the previous swing level and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.2635 support.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we are
seeing some pickup in bullish momentum today although the buyers will want to
see the price breaking above the most recent lower high at 1.2825 before piling
in with more conviction. On the other hand, a break below the minor counter-trendline
might lead to an increase in the bearish momentum and provide the correction
into the 1.2750 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and the
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and
the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

For some context, the BOJ held discussions with bond market participants over the last two days before announcing their official decision on tapering later this month. It is being reported that many private banks called for the Japanese central bank to halve its monthly purchases by around 2026.

While there was apparently a varying amount of views put forth, there was many who argued for the BOJ to trim their monthly bond buying to around ¥3 trillion two years from now.

Meanwhile, an added source also reveals that the BOJ is likely imagining a scenario where it tapers its bond buying to around ¥2 trillion by March 2026.

All of this fits with the idea that the tapering process is going to be a more gradual one, even if the BOJ decides with a larger amount to begin with at its upcoming meeting on 31 July.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing.

We will
see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing
hopes or start to worry about a recession.Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell testified to Congress but he didn’t offer anything in terms of forward guidance as they want to see more data before signalling any action.

The AUD, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. This week, we are seeing a consolidation as the market awaits the US CPI and Jobless Claims figures tomorrow.

On the monetary policy front, the Aussie got a boost from another
hot monthly CPI report last month which raised the chances of
a rate hike, although RBA’s Hauser poured some cold water on the
expectations as he said that he would rather hold rates steady for longer.

AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD broke out of the two-month long range last week and consolidated
just above it ever since. The resistance
around the 0.6713 level has
now become support.

That’s where we can expect
the buyers to keep piling in with a defined risk below it to position for a
rally into the 0.6870 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price falling back below the 0.6713 level to regain some control and
position for a drop into the 0.66 handle.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the consolidation just above the 0.6713 level as the market awaits
the key economic data tomorrow with the release of the US CPI and Jobless Claims
figures. For now, we will likely keep ranging here until we get a breakout on
either side.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a good resistance zone around the 0.6750 level. The buyers
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new
highs, while the sellers will likely keep on leaning on the resistance to
position for a break below the 0.6713 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and the
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and
the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

It’s just one of those days where tomorrow can’t come soon enough. Besides the kiwi today, other major currencies are lacking any real appetite to move on the day. In exemplifying that sentiment, EUR/USD is still hugging a 13 pips range only so far today. Talk about a snoozefest.

We’re pretty much caught in the countdown to the US inflation report tomorrow. And that is leaving traders with a lack of conviction to go hunting today.

The expectation is that we will see headline annual inflation ease back to 3.1% for June. However, core annual inflation is expected to remain sticky at 3.4% – unchanged from May. Once again, there will be plenty of watchful eyes on the details. These were some of the key takeaways from last month’s report.

The release tomorrow will come alongside the weekly jobless claims data, so there might be a bit of an added twist. Just be wary of that as such.

For today, the 10-year Treasury notes auction will be the only real item of significance on the agenda. So, it is still mostly a waiting game until we get to the main event tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Bitcoin has been under
heavy selling pressure for the entire month of June as a couple of bearish
drivers continued to weigh on the market. First, we had the fears around the Bitcoin
repayments to old Mt. Gox clients with expectations that they would sell their Bitcoins or at least part of it. More recently, CNBC
reported that “Germany’s government has been selling hundreds of millions
of dollars worth of seized bitcoins” and it still holds roughly 32,488 bitcoins
which are worth 1.9$ billion dollars.

Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin eventually dropped below the key 60K support
zone and the major trendline
around the 58K level. This might weigh on the sentiment and it gives the
sellers a bit more control.

The price is now
consolidating right beneath the key levels with the sellers piling in with a
defined risk above the 60K level to position for a drop into new lows. The
buyers will want to see the price rising back above the 60K level to regain
some confidence and start targeting new highs.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price retested the major upward trendline recently but failed to
make a new low as the market went into consolidation. We can see that from a
risk management perspective, the sellers have a nice risk to reward setup
around the downward trendline and the 60K resistance. That’s the zone the
buyers will need to break to turn the sentiment around and increase the bullish
bets into new highs.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that there’s not much to do here as the price action remains rangebound.
The sellers will want to lean on the resistance, while the buyers will want to
see a breakout to the upside. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be
focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report.
Thursday will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and
the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with
the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board since last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will
see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing
hopes or start to worry about a recession.

The NZD, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. Tomorrow, we have the RBNZ policy decision
where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and maintain
the hawkish stance.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD bounced from a strong support zone around the 0.6050 level last week and
extended the gains amid soft US data. Overall, we are still in a range and the
market participants keep on buying at support and selling at resistance. We
will likely need a breakout to see a more sustained trend.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price rejected the resistance at 0.6150 and it’s now falling to
the support around the 0.61 handle. That’s where we can expect the buyers to
step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a break above the
resistance with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the
0.6050 support next.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline
defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers might continue to lean on it
to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will want to see the price
breaking higher and above the most recent lower high at 0.6129 to regain some
control and start targeting new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be
focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report. Tomorrow,
we have the RBNZ policy decision. Thursday will be the most important day of
the week as we get the US CPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

This marks the highest reading since December last year, although the trend remains that it has been 30 consecutive months since the index has been above its long-term average of 98. With the US elections coming up in the months ahead, I wouldn’t anticipate too strong a bounce in sentiment given the relative uncertainty. That alongside some softness already evident in the jobs market.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Crude oil has been on an
incredible run since bottoming out around the $72.50 level in early June. The
market eventually caught up to the positive drivers we had back then with the OPEC+’s
extension of voluntary output cuts, and the pickup in economic activity seen
from the global PMIs. The prospects of
major central banks easing their policies was also a contributor for the
positive future demand outlook.

More recently, the price got
rejected from a key resistance level and eventually extended the drop following
a soft US
NFP report. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing.
We will see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft
landing hopes or start to worry about a recession.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil got rejected from the 84.50 resistance
and extended the drop following the soft US NFP report. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 80
support zone. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking below the 80 support to increase the bearish bets into the 77 level
next.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently dropped below the minor trendline that was defining the bullish
momentum. This technically signals a switch in momentum with the sellers in a
near-term control. We can also see that we have the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level of the entire rally from the lows standing around the key
support. That’s been a key level for the market.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more closely the recent price action. We have a nice resistance around the 82.70
level where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the drop
from the 84.50 level.

From a risk management
perspective, that’s where the sellers will likely step in with a defined risk above
the resistance and position for a drop into the key 80 support with a better
risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to regain some control and start targeting a break above the
84.50 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be
focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report.
Thursday will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and
the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with
the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

iFX EXPO Asia 2024 is heading back to
Thailand for 2+ days of B2B networking at the world’s leading online trading
event. Excitement is building for this year’s
iFX EXPO Asia 2024 as the leading online trading expo returns to the bustling
city of Bangkok for the third time.

iFX EXPO Asia 2024, the world’s premier
online trading B2B event, is heading back to Bangkok, bringing together 3,500+
industry leaders, experts, and professionals from 1,600+ companies around the world for 2+ days of networking,
knowledge sharing, and business opportunities.

Scheduled to take place between 16-18
September, 2024, at the prestigious Centara Grand & Bangkok Convention
Centre, this year’s expo promises to be one of the largest and most successful
events of its kind ever to be held in the Thai capital.

Known for its vibrant economy and thriving
fintech ecosystem, Thailand provides an ideal backdrop for this prominent
event, with the country’s
digital assets market projected to experience a revenue growth of 15.75% in
2025.*

Excitement is already starting to build
ahead of the showpiece exhibition, with the launch of the iFX EXPO Asia 2024 website officially kick
starting the countdown to day one.

The
place to do business

With the great and good from the world of
online trading set to converge on Bangkok, iFX EXPO Asia 2024 is the
must-attend event for brokers, IBs, PSPs, liquidity providers, tech companies,
and other fintech-related businesses.

Around 130+ exhibitors from 120+ countries
will be in attendance, as leading lights from the industry join together under
one roof to highlight their range of products and services to a truly diverse
and engaged audience.

It represents the ultimate online trading
hub where deals are made between key market players and like-minded
professionals. Having grown into a gold standard event garnering a strong
reputation within the industry, iFX EXPO Asia provides every individual with
the chance to network, exchange ideas, expand their business and explore
exciting new possibilities.

Stand
out from the crowd

As one of the major gatherings on the
calendar for 2024, iFX EXPO Asia is the prime destination where forex and
fintech companies showcase their products and services on a major scale.

Businesses can take full advantage of the
prestige associated with the event by becoming an official exhibitor. Through
booking a booth, companies are able to showcase their expertise and products,
increase brand recognition, and generate new leads. Previous exhibitors include
MetaQuotes, Solitics, cTrader, AdRoll, Deriv, ZuluTrade, to name but a few.

Meanwhile, there are also numerous
sponsorship opportunities available for those businesses looking to shine a
brighter spotlight on their brands. Last year, XS.com, OpixTech, Equiti
Capital, UEZ Markets, along with various other companies made full use of the
sponsorship benefits on offer at iFX EXPO Asia.

For interested parties who are looking to
stand out from the competition, please visit this link
for exhibitor and sponsorship enquiries.

Exclusive
access to unmatched content

The 2024 edition of iFX EXPO Asia is not
simply a networking hub, it also offers up a whole host of informative and
insightful content, with 13+ hours of speaker sessions and panel discussions
spread across two stages, Speaker Hall and Idea Hub, featuring a lineup of some
of the most influential experts and visionary thinkers from across the
industry.

Last year’s expo saw so many insightful
exchanges with key takeaways from every session. Popular
talks included: “The Asian Century: Tech Trends In Online Trading”, “The Art of
Gen Z: The Future of Brokerage” and “The Golden Hashtag: Affiliate Marketing in
Asia”.

With the speaker sessions set to return
bigger and better than before, the event organisers are on the lookout for
individuals keen to share their expertise, either as a speaker or as part of a
panel group. For more information, please click here.

Stay
tuned for more details

Keep up to date with all the latest
information about iFX EXPO Asia 2024 in the lead up to the event. Don’t forget
to check the iFX EXPO social media channels for exciting announcements as
Bangkok gears up for one of Asia’s most successful ever B2B online trading
expos. Visit the dedicated Facebook, Instagram
and LinkedIn pages for regular updates.

Secure your spot at iFX EXPO Asia 2024 by
registering here.

*FinTech – Thailand | Statista Market Forecast

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Light crude oil futures technical analysis and trade idea, for short

👋 Hello traders and investors! This is Itai Levitan from ForexLive.com, bringing you the latest technical analysis and trade ideas for Light Crude Oil Futures. Let’s dive into the current market setup and discuss potential strategies for your consideration.

Oil futures trend analysis 📈

We are observing an interesting pattern with Light Crude Oil. Recently, oil pierced a significant trend line, attempting a breakout but ultimately failing. This breakout attempt was aligned with the first upper standard deviation of the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) anchored from the beginning of 2023. Given this failed breakout, it appears that the bears might have an upper hand at the moment.

Market response at 84 USD TO 85 USD 📉

Following the failed breakout, we have seen an initial decline of over 1%. This movement is critical as it sets the stage for a potential entry point.

Trade idea – short oil 🎯

Entry point

• Entry: $82.40

This entry point is very close to the current market price and provides a strategic position based on the recent technical behavior.

Stop loss

• Primary stop: $84.00
• Tighter stop option, see video above: $83.70

The primary stop is set just above the $84.00 level to protect against further upward movements. Traders preferring a tighter stop can opt for $83.70, which is still above the upper standard deviation but offers a more favorable risk-reward ratio.

Take profit targets

• First target: $80.26
• Second target: $78.16
• Third target: $76.80
• Fourth target: $72.85

These targets are strategically placed. The first target allows for partial profit-taking, reducing risk exposure as the trade progresses. Subsequent targets provide opportunities to capture additional profits as the market moves in our favor.

Risk-reward analysis

• Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 4.5:1

By averaging out the take profit targets, we achieve a balanced and favorable risk-reward ratio. This setup allows for substantial profit potential while managing risk effectively.

Trade tips 📝

1. Monitor lower time frames if you still want to enter but saw this late: It’s essential to keep an eye on lower time frames to refine your entry point and ensure optimal timing.
2. Partial profits: Taking partial profits at different targets is a professional approach to secure gains and manage risk.
3. Adjust stop loss: After reaching the first profit target, consider moving your stop loss to the entry point to protect your position and minimize potential losses.

Remember, this analysis and trade idea is an orientation for you to consider. Always trade at your own risk and perform due diligence before entering any positions. Stay tuned to ForexLive.com for additional insights and perspectives. Happy trading!

Thank you for reading, and good luck! 🍀

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.