A July move is a non-starter but the odds of a September rate cut are currently at ~80%. As for the year itself (four meetings left), a total of ~48 bps of rate cuts are being priced in. In other words, traders are seeing roughly two rate cuts by the Fed before year-end.

Looking at the balance of risks, I would argue that there is a strong sense that we could lean closer towards pricing in one rate cut rather than three rate cuts moving forward. Inflation developments still need to mark better progress, otherwise the Fed might continue to play down softness in other areas of the economy.

Meanwhile, I would say that the bar for the Fed to cut three times this year looks a little high. But one can argue that once they do get the ball rolling, there is a case to be made that they could continue to keep cutting in back-to-back meetings.

For now though, we’re not quite anywhere near that yet. It’s all about taking one data set at a time so let’s see what the jobs report today has to offer.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• What NFP data could surprise the market?
• Labour party wins UK general election, beating 326-seat majority threshold in the Commons
• Bitcoin tumbles to its lowest since February as downside momentum intensifies
• Fed’s Williams: Still a way to go to reach our 2% target
• Germany May industrial production -2.5% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• Eurozone May retail sales +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• UK June Halifax house prices -0.2% vs -0.1% m/m prior

Markets:

• JPY leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures flat
• US 10-year yields down 1.2 bps to 4.335%
• Gold up 0.3% to $2,364.04
• WTI crude flat at $83.85
• Bitcoin down 5.4% to $55,185

It wasn’t an exciting session as markets are caught waiting on the US jobs report later today.

The hangover from the US holiday yesterday isn’t helping, with a largely more tentative mood seen among FX as well during the session. The dollar is hanging in there after the more sluggish showing from the softer US ISM services PMI earlier in the week.

EUR/USD is marginally higher by 0.1% to 1.0820 while USD/JPY is down 0.3% to 160.80 on the day.

The pound barely reacted to the results of the UK general election, which went very much as expected. It was a complete domination by Labour and GBP/USD held steady at around 1.2770-80 levels for the most part.

Meanwhile, commodity currencies also barely moved with a range of 15 pips locking in USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD respectively.

It’s all on to the non-farm payrolls data next to see how that will shake things up before the weekend. Will we see a continuation to the flows after the US ISM services PMI? Or is the dollar going to have a chance to bounce back?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• We still have a way to go to reach our 2% target on a sustained basis.
• We are committed to getting the job done.
• Uncertainty will continue to be the defining characteristic of the monetary policy landscape for the foreseeable future.

There’s nothing new here that he hasn’t already said recently.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

After a couple of weeks of
consolidation, the S&P 500 this week found some footing and eventually
extended the rally into a new all-time high following the soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports.

Overall, the data didn’t
change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view
that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.
The soft-landing narrative is still the main driver of the market, and the data
is indeed backing it for now with ongoing disinflation and resilient economy as
we head into the easing cycle.

S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that after two weeks of consolidation, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time
high following some soft US data. From a risk management perspective, the
buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline. At the moment though, it’s hard to
envision such a big pullback unless we get some ugly US data.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action of the last couple of weeks with
the recent breakout. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined
risk below the resistance
now turned support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price falling back inside the range to
position for a drop into the 5500 support.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a bit of consolidation now around the 5587 level as the market
awaits the US NFP report. If we get bad data, the market might go into risk-off
and we will likely see the sellers piling in aggressively for a selloff into
the 5500 support.

The buyers will want to see
a good or benign report which could even lead to a dip-buying opportunity on a possible
pullback into the 5560 zone. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the data is expected
to show 190K jobs added in June and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged
at 4.0%.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

In the Asian session, Eamonn published a nice article on the range of estimates for today’s US NFP report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction. Here’s what Eamonn wrote on this topic:

WHY THE RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS IMPORTANT

Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly for several reasons:

• Surprise
  Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and
  previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these
  expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid
  revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions
  based on the new information.

• Psychological
  Impact: Investors and traders are influenced by psychological factors.
  Extreme data points can evoke strong emotional reactions, leading to
  overreactions in the market. This can amplify market movements,
  especially in the short term.

• Risk
  Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If
  data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can
  change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance,
  better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of
  investing in equities, leading to a market rally.

• Triggering
  of Automated Trading: In today’s markets, a significant portion of
  trading is done by algorithms. These automated systems often have
  pre-set conditions or thresholds that, when triggered by unexpected
  data, can lead to large-scale buying or selling.

• Impact
  on Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Data that is significantly off from
  expectations can influence the policies of central banks and
  governments. For example, in the case of the NFP due today, a weaker
  jobs report will fuel speculation of nearer and larger Federal Open
  Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts. A stronger report will diminish such
  expectations.

• Liquidity
  and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market
  liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a
  temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves
  until a new equilibrium is found.

• Chain
  Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A
  significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can
  lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall
  market impact.

WHY THE DISTRIBUTION OF FORECASTS IS IMPORTANT

Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although the range of estimates for the US unemployment rate today is 3.9%-4.1%, only 8.7% of forecasters see a 4.1% rate, while 71% expect 4.0% and 20.3% anticipate 3.9%.

This means that even if the unemployment rate prints within the range of estimates at 4.1%, it would still be seen as a surprise and trigger a big market reaction. I can see the market going into risk-off on a 4.1% unemployement rate.

For the Non-Farm Payrolls, although the range of estimates is between 140K and 250K, a number outside the 170K-230K range would be seen as a surprise.

Lastly, for the Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y, 66% of forecasters see a 3.9% figure, while 17.3% expect 4.0% and 17.2% a 3.8% reading.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• The UK heads to the polls today
• What has changed after yesterday’s US data?
• Bitcoin drops again, faces mounting technical pressure
• ECB’s Lane: Wage tracker shows much lower wage growth in 2025 and 2026
• ECB accounts show some mixed views on confidence towards inflation outlook
• Germany May industrial orders -1.6% vs +0.5% m/m expected
• Germany June construction PMI 39.7 vs 38.5 prior
• UK June construction PMI 52.2 vs 53.6 expected
• Switzerland June CPI +1.3% vs +1.4% y/y expected

Markets:

• JPY leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; CAC 40 +0.8%
• Gold up 0.1% to $2,358.40
• WTI crude down 0.8% to $83.17
• Bitcoin down 3.1% to $57,667

With it being a US holiday, there wasn’t much for traders to work with as well in European morning trade today.

The dollar remains sluggish, keeping with the mood from yesterday after the softer US ISM services PMI data. The greenback was lightly changed early on but is now down a touch across the board.

The changes in the euro and pound are light but USD/JPY is down 0.4% to test waters back under 161.00 on the day. Besides that, USD/CHF is also down 0.2% to 0.8995 and AUD/USD up 0.4% to 0.6730 currently.

In the equities space, European indices were more tentative early on but are now picking up steam again with French stocks continuing to rally ahead of the second round of the elections this weekend. Regional markets also seem to pass the test of the latest French 10-year bond auction earlier in the day.

Besides that, there is a bit of focus on Bitcoin as it tumbles further to its lowest levels since early May. The cryptocurrency is under pressure on a fall back below $60,000, with key technicals being challenged on the week.

Liquidity conditions will be thin in US trading later, so just be wary of that with the greenback starting to see its resilience crack this week. All this ahead of the non-farm payrolls data tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Some members felt that the data available since the last meeting had not increased their confidence that inflation would converge to the 2% target by 2025
• These members also viewed risks to the inflation outlook as being tilted to the upside
• Wage growth had surprised to the upside and inflation seemed to be stickier
• Services inflation momentum was very high, and the pace of domestic disinflation had been overestimated
• It was also suggested that further significant wage pressures were in the pipeline
• All of this suggested that the last mile, as the final phase of disinflation, was the most difficult
• It was argued that a small undershooting of inflation would be much less costly than a continued overshooting
• These considerations suggested that cutting interest rates was not fully in line with the principle of data-dependence
• There was a case for keeping interest rates unchanged at the current meeting
• But willingness to support Lane’s proposal to cut interest rates was expressed, notwithstanding the reservations put forward
• Full accounts

As a reminder, the ECB proceeded with a 25 bps rate cut in their June decision. But evidently, there are certain policymakers that are not quite in agreement with the move. That definitely presents some interesting happenings behind the scenes, even though there was a united front when speaking to the public.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s not much but the dollar is looking a little sluggish, keeping with the drop from yesterday. EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.0800 still, holding at the upper bound for the week. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is now down 0.4% and dipping just under the 161.00 mark:

What is notable in the chart above is that buyers had put up a defense at the 100-hour moving average (red line) on a drop following the softer US ISM services PMI data yesterday. But in European trading today, that level is giving way for the first time in nearly a month.

That puts the focus on the 200-hour moving average (blue line) at 160.73 as well. A break below that will see sellers seize back near-term control in the pair. For now, that bias is more neutral as price weaves in between the key hourly moving averages.

Overall, it is a light signal that the dollar resilience is starting to crack a little on the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD yesterday weakened
across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t
change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view
that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.

The NZD, on the other hand,
has been under pressure mainly due to the US Dollar strength last week which
has been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something
fundamental. This week, the US Dollar is back on the defensive as the market
continues to trade the soft-landing narrative.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD probed below the key support around the 0.6082 level last week but
eventually failed to sustain the breakout. The buyers seem now back in control
and the first target should be 0.6217 resistance.

The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower again to gain more conviction
and increase the bearish bets into the 0.60 handle next.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price yesterday broke above the downward trendline
which was defining the bearish momentum. The buyers increased the bullish bets
as they gained a bit more conviction to position for a rally back into the
0.6217 resistance.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a good support zone around the 0.61 handle where we can find
the confluence
of the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level and the upward minor trendline. If we do get a pullback
from the current levels, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support
to position for a rally into the resistance with a better risk to reward setup.

The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline and the 0.6080
zone to regain control and increase the bearish bets into the 0.60 handle next.
The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the data is expected
to show 180K jobs added in June and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged
at 4.0%.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD yesterday weakened
across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t
change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view
that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.

The CAD, on the other hand,
has been under pressure mainly due to the US Dollar strength last week which
has been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something
fundamental. This week, the US Dollar is back on the defensive as the market
continues to trade the soft-landing narrative.

Last week, the Canadian CPI surprised to the upside, with the
underlying inflation measures rising
but remaining within the 1-3% target band. This made the market to pare back rate cuts
expectations with the probabilities now standing around 57% for no change. We
will get another inflation report before the next BoC policy decision, but if
we see another jump in wage growth tomorrow, then the central bank will likely
need very good CPI figures to deliver a rate cut in July.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD is now back at the key 1.36 support zone. Again, we can expect the buyers to step
in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the
1.3785 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to pile in more aggressively and target a drop into the 1.34
handle next.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price action remains rangebound between the 1.36 support and the
1.3785 resistance. There’s not much to do here and the market participants will
likely keep on “playing the range” until we get a breakout.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward minor trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher and rally above
the 1.3643 level to increase the bullish bets into the 1.3785 resistance.

The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely lean on the trendline to position for a downside breakout
with a defined risk above the 1.3642 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we conclude the week with the US NFP and the Canadian labour market
report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.