- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected with a shift in the statement that
indicated the end of the tightening cycle. - The Summary of Economic Projections showed a
downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate
was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was revised to show three rate cuts
in 2024 compared to just two in the last projection. - Fed Chair Powell didn’t push back against the strong dovish pricing
and even said that they are focused on not making the mistake of holding rates
high for too long, which implies a rate cut coming soon. - The US CPI last week came in line with expectations
with the disinflationary progress continuing steady. This was also confirmed by
the US PPI the day after where the data missed
estimates. - The labour market has been showing signs of
weakening lately but we got some strong releases recently with the US Jobless Claims and the NFP coming
in strongly. - The US Retail Sales last week beat expectations across the board as
consumer spending continues to hold. - The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations falling further into
contraction, while the ISM Services PMI beat forecasts holding on in expansion. - The market expects the Fed to start cutting rates
in Q1 2024.
CAD
- The BoC kept the interest rate steady at
5.00% as expected with the usual caveat that
it’s prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed. - BoC Governor Macklem recently has been leaning on a more
neutral side and even started to talk about rate cuts although he remains
uncertain on the timing. - The recent Canadian CPI missed expectations across the
board and the underlying inflation measures eased, which was a welcome
development for the BoC. - On the labour market side, the latest report beat expectations
although the unemployment rate ticked higher again. - The Canadian PMIs continue to fall
further into contraction as the economy keeps on weakening amid restrictive
monetary policy. - The market expects the BoC to start
cutting rates in Q2 2024.
USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD is
testing the key swing level at 1.3382. The price looks a bit overstretched as
depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move. The buyers are likely to step in here with
a defined risk below the low to target a rally into the trendline.
USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair has
been consolidating around the key level recently as the buyers are starting to
pile in. Some aggressive sellers might lean on the red 21 moving average to
target a break below the low and extend the selloff into the 1.3225 level. From
a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to
reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the confluence with the
previous swing low level and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been diverging with
the MACD coming
into the key swing level. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often
followed by pullbacks or reversals. This should be another layer of confluence
for the buyers with the trendline being the natural target. A break above the
recent resistance zone
at the 1.34 handle should see the buyers increase their bullish bets into the
trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will try to defend the level and
fold as soon as the price breaks higher.
Upcoming Events
This week is a bit empty on the data front as we head
into the Christmas holidays. Today, we have the Canadian CPI data. Tomorrow, we
will get the US Consumer Confidence report. On Thursday, we get the Canadian
Retail Sales and the US Jobless Claims data, while on Friday we conclude the
week with the US PCE report.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.