Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 20 bps (81% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 75 bps
- ECB: 34 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 145 bps
- BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 56 bps
- BoC: 33 bps (67% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 95 bps
- RBA: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 40 bps
- RBNZ: 55 bps (80% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/20% for a 75 bps cut)
2025: 170 bps
- SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 70 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 13 bps (51% probability of 25 bps rate hike at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 44 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.