• Major currencies lightly changed so far on the day
• ECB’s Holzmann: There is a case for rate hike if no surprises turn up
• Chinese equities trim gains as early relief begins to fade
• China scraps the last of its Covid travel requirement measures
• Japan maintains overall assessment of its economy in August
• Eurozone July M3 money supply +0.4% vs 0.0% y/y expected
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 25 August CHF 471.4 bn vs CHF 476.2 bn prior
• Jackson Hole roundup: What did the central banksters say?

Markets:

• AUD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.239%
• Gold flat at $1,914.73
• WTI crude down 0.2% to $79.70
• Bitcoin down 0.3% to $25,951

It was a quiet session with London out on holiday today, so there wasn’t much to work with for European traders as the flows were light. Jackson Hole didn’t deliver much in any case, so markets are left to their own devices to start the new week.

There was little appetite among major currencies on the day, with the dollar keeping steadier and mostly little changed in narrow ranges.

In the equities space, Asian stocks rallied initially as China provided some relief measures for investors. Chinese indices opened up 5% higher but saw gains fizzle to end the day just barely 1% higher.

US futures kept a little higher on the day at least, helping to breathe a calmer mood to the general equities space. And with month-end approaching, it will make things a little trickier to navigate in the days ahead. We’ll see if the selling will hit again later in Wall Street today.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last week
was the Jackson Hole Symposium week and we
have heard from many Fed members about their opinions on the momentary policy
going forward. There seems to be a consensus for a pause in September as they
try to “carefully” assess the lag effects of their tightening to date.
Nonetheless, they are ready to do more if conditions require further tightening
and in fact, they keep reaffirming their data dependency. The economic data
since the last FOMC meeting has been surprising to the upside with the labour
market remaining very strong, but the last two inflation reports showed the Core M/M
inflation rising by just 0.16%. Overall, it looks like a soft landing scenario
but the latest US PMIs showed
that there might be pain ahead.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite bounced on a key support at 13174
and rallied back towards the broken trendline where we
had also the confluence with the
red 21 moving average. The
price got rejected there as the sellers leant on the moving average to position
for another fall below the key support. The bias for now remains bearish as the
price has been printing lower lows and lower highs and the moving averages are
crossed to the downside.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
resistance zone that we had around the broken trendline with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level
acting as a further barrier. This resistance will be key for the buyers as they
will need the price to break above the level to switch the bias from bearish to
bullish and start targeting a new high.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a minor resistance around the 13615 level where we have the confluence of
the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is
where we can expect the sellers to pile in with a defined risk above the level
to target the break below the 13174 support. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and target a break above
the 13850 resistance.

Upcoming
Events

This week is an important one given that we will see
many key labour market data, including the US NFP, before the next FOMC
meeting. We start tomorrow with the US Consumer Confidence and the US Job
Openings. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP report. Moving on to Thursday, we
will have the US Jobless Claims and the US PCE data. Finally, we conclude the
week with the US NFP and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday. Although the Fed
keeps all the options on the table, it’s also leaning more towards a pause in
September, so we will need strong data to make the market to expect a hike at
the upcoming meeting.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Not in the clear yet on inflation
• ECB is behind the curve, can assess policy once at 4%
• Should start debate on ending PEPP reinvestments

He looks to be trying to push for it but it is quite evident that not all ECB policymakers are sharing this view. In terms of market pricing, it’s pretty much a coin flip for September at this stage. The odds of a 25 bps rate hike are pinned at around 45% currently, with the remainder 55% pricing in no rate hike for next month.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The quick
rise in the US real yields and the US Dollar in August weighed a lot on Gold
and the yellow metal sold off with very shallow pullbacks along the way.
Recently, the less hawkish comments from Fed members and the
miss in the US PMIs gave
Gold some support as the Treasury yields and the USD retreated. Going forward
it’s going to be all about the data as strong readings should keep weighing on
Gold while a deterioration in the data should support it.

Gold Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Gold has
avoided a complete breakdown as it rallied back above the 1893 low soon after
breaking below it. The price is now testing the red 21 moving average and it’s
struggling to break through as the sellers are probably leaning on the moving average to
position for more downside.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4
hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that after the long
divergence with the
MACD coming
into the 1893 low, the price broke above the downward trendline
confirming a reversal and rallied towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where the sellers are piling in with a defined risk above the 1934 resistance to
position for another selloff below the 1893 support. If the price extends all
the way up to the 1934 resistance, we should see the sellers piling in even
more aggressively as they will have an even better risk to reward setup.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1
hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
recently got a quick selloff from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level during
the Fed Chair Powell’s speech and then a quick turnaround as the buyers leant
on the support around 1904 to position for a rally into the 1934 resistance.
The price action now might be messy, but the key levels to watch will be the Fibonacci
retracement levels and the 1904 support.

Upcoming Events

This week is an important one given that we will see
many key labour market data, including the US NFP, before the next FOMC
meeting. We start tomorrow with the US Consumer Confidence and the US Job
Openings. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP report. Moving on to Thursday, we
will have the US Jobless Claims and the US PCE data. Finally, we conclude the
week with the US NFP and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday. Although the Fed
keeps all the options on the table, it’s also leaning more towards a pause in
September, so we will need strong data to make the market to expect a hike at
the upcoming meeting. In case we see weak readings, Gold is likely to rally and
vice versa if we get strong figures.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The only standout is that the Japanese government raised the view on exports for the first time in three months, noting that it is „showing movements of picking up recently“. Besides that, here is the rest of the overall assessments:

• Private consumption is picking up
• Business investment is picking up
• Industrial production shows signs of picking up
• Corporate profits are improving moderately as a whole
• The employment situation shows movements of improvement
• Consumer prices are rising

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.