I already outlined the technical predicament for AUD/USD earlier here. And the charts for USD/CAD and NZD/USD are also pointing to a lack of technical follow through by dollar bulls on the week.

In the case of USD/CAD, the pair did manage a push above its 200-day moving average (blue line) but is ultimately seeing that falter today. That is similar to AUD/USD as highlighted in the linked post above. For USD/CAD, the ceiling appears to be at the 50.0 Fib retracement level at 1.3538 on the week.

In any case, the fall back below the 200-day moving average of 1.3480 is the more significant development in trading today. And just like AUD/USD, the near-term bias is also shifting as price falls below the 100-hour moving average of 1.3483 currently.

Looking to NZD/USD:

There was a push below 0.6100 during the week but it fell short in breaching the 200-day moving average (blue line). That coincides with the December low, which was also defended by the key level.

As such, buyers are very much still in the game. And even though the near-term chart is favouring sellers for now, the turn in broader market sentiment and resilience among other commodity currencies could help to translate to better fortunes for the kiwi.

Either way, the fact is that buyers have a clear line in the sand to make their stand now. And that is the 200-day moving average at 0.6089.

To sum up, the dollar did make a strong case for a run higher against the commodity currencies this week. But it looks like it is falling short in sealing the deal as we wrap things up before the weekend. Or is there time for yet another twist in the story?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with a shift in
  the statement that indicated the end of the tightening cycle.
• The Summary of Economic Projections showed a
  downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate
  was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was revised to show three rate cuts
  in 2024 compared to just two in the last projection.
• Fed Chair Powell didn’t push back against the strong dovish pricing
  and even said that they are focused on not making the mistake of holding rates
  high for too long.
• The latest US CPI slightly beat expectations but analysts
  expect the Core PCE to print at 0.2% M/M again following the CPI data.
• The labour market continues to soften but remains
  resilient with US Jobless Claims beating expectations week after week.
• The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, while the ISM Services PMI missed by a big margin.
• The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board.
• The Fed members recently have been pushing
  back on the aggressive rate cuts expectations.
• The market expectation for a rate cut in March fell
  to roughly 50%.

CAD

• The BoC kept the interest rate steady at
  5.00% as expected at the last meeting with
  the usual caveat that it’s prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed.
• BoC Governor Macklem recently has been leaning on a more
  neutral side and even started to talk about rate cuts although he remains
  uncertain on the timing.
• The latest Canadian CPI beat expectations across the board with
  the underlying inflation measures remaining elevated, which should give the BoC
  a reason to wait for more data before considering rate cuts.
• On the labour market side, the latest report missed
  expectations although wage growth spiked to the highest level since 2021.
• The Canadian PMIs continue to fall
  further into contraction as the economy keeps on weakening amid restrictive
  monetary policy.
• The market expects the BoC to start
  cutting rates in Q2.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD broke
through the key trendline and
extended the rally into the 1.35 handle. This breakout opened the door for a
move into the swing high resistance around
the 1.36 handle where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The
buyers should keep on looking for dip-buying opportunities on the lower
timeframes while the sellers will want to see the momentum changing and some
key breaks before piling in more aggressively.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an
upward trendline now that will define the current uptrend. From a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup
around the trendline where they will also find the previous swing high and the
50% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to invalidate the
bullish setup and position for a drop into the 1.3225 support zone.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
pair has been pulling back recently from overstretched levels. We can also
notice that the price diverged with
the MACD which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback should be right around the
50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Upcoming Events

Today, the only notable events will be the Canadian
Retail Sales data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The near-term chart for gold tells a better story on price action in the precious metal so far this year:

During the downside push two weeks ago, gold struggled to get above the key hourly moving averages. And after a break of the 100-hour (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages earlier this week, gold suffered a significant drop and ran close towards a test of the $2,000 mark.

But amid a turn in broader market sentiment yesterday and today, gold has rebounded all the way back up to $2,029.

And that is seeing price run up against a test of the confluence of the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at $2,030.20 to $2,031.75. For sellers, keep below that region and the near-term bias will stay more bearish. For buyers, break above that and the bias will shift towards being more bullish instead.

On the week itself, gold looks poised for yet another drop but it really could’ve turned out worse. After the fall earlier this week, higher rates could’ve threatened a much steeper decline for gold if not for some resilience in broader markets. I still reckon there is a score to settle there but if in doubt, the technicals tend to act as a guide at least.

And in this case, gold is now returning to test a critical point that has defined price momentum so far this year. The next near-term move before the weekend at least will be defined by the battle between traders at the juncture above.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 futures are now up 0.4% with tech stocks leading the charge once again after the gains yesterday. Nasdaq futures are up 0.7% while Dow futures are up 0.2% currently. After having struggled earlier in the week, equities are producing quite a solid turnaround in fortunes yesterday and so far today.

The S&P 500 index itself now looks to be setting up for a test of the 4,800 mark once again. That has been a key technical level that has prevented a break to fresh all-time highs, so there is that to watch out for. If that gives way, expect risk sentiment to go running as we look towards the closing stages of this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting with a shift in the statement that indicated the
  end of the tightening cycle.
• The Summary of Economic Projections showed a
  downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate
  was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was revised to show three rate cuts
  in 2024 compared to just two in the last projection.
• Fed Chair Powell didn’t
  push back against the strong dovish pricing and even said that they are focused
  on not making the mistake of holding rates high for too long.
• The latest US CPI
  slightly beat expectations but analysts expect the Core PCE to print at 0.2%
  M/M again following the CPI data.
• The labour market continues to soften but remains
  resilient with US Jobless Claims beating
  expectations week after week.
• The latest ISM Manufacturing
  PMI
  beat expectations, while the ISM Services PMI missed
  by a big margin.
• The US Retail Sales beat
  expectations across the board.
• The Fed members recently have been pushing
  back on the aggressive rate cuts expectations.
• The market expectation for a rate cut in March fell
  to roughly 50%.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with
  the central bank maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The
  recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
  the board which is another welcome development for the RBA.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs improved but remain in contraction.
• The
  market expects the RBA to start cutting rates in June.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD bounced
on the key support zone
around the 0.65 handle as the price got overstretched on the downside as
depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk
management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward
setup around the downward trendline where
they will also find the confluence with the
Fibonacci retracement levels.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the
trendline to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into
the 0.69 resistance.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been diverging with
the MACD as it
was approaching the key support zone. This is generally a sign of weakening
momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it should be
an extra confirmation for a pullback into the trendline. At the moment, we have
a minor upward trendline defining the uptrend on this timeframe. The buyers
will likely keep on leaning on it to extend the rally into the major trendline
while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and
target a break below the key support.

Upcoming Events

Today, the only notable event will be the University
of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.