Last week, the Dow Jones closed around the highs as
the market continued to trade on the soft-landing narrative. In fact, despite
the slightly higher than expected US CPI figures,
the US Jobless Claims improved
further and the US PPI data
missed forecasts. Moreover, the Fedspeak has been generally neutral with no
strong pushback against the market’s rate cuts expectations. Today, the market
will be closed for MLK Day, but we will have some important events throughout
the week.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones recently
bounced on the red 21 moving average and managed
to print a new all-time high. The sellers stepped in to position for a
correction into the 37066 level, but they will need a break below the moving
average to further increase their bearish bets. The buyers, on the other hand,
are likely to lean again on the moving average to position for a rally into
another all-time high.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
trendline that’s
been defining the uptrend since last November got breached recently. We can
also notice that the price is diverging even
more with the MACD after
posting a new all-time high last week. This is generally a sign of weakening
momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be
another bearish confluence for
the sellers.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action and the divergence with the MACD. We can also notice
that the price had a hard time breaking above the 37777 high with multiple
rejections and eventually a pullback. The sellers will want to see the price
breaking below the swing low around the 37425 level to increase the bearish
bets, while the buyers will likely lean on the swing low level to try another
breakout.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow, all eyes will be on Fed’s Waller as the
market will be eager to see if he decides to pushback against the aggressive
rate cuts expectations. On Wednesday, we will get the US Retail Sales report
while on Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

There is no particular headline driving the move but at the same time, risk appetite looks to be sapped after a mildly positive open earlier. European indices are now down around 0.1% to 0.3% with bond yields sitting a little higher on the day. The early flows are translating to a positive start for the dollar, gaining across the major currencies board.

USD/JPY is up 0.6% to 145.75 and is pushing back towards a test of the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower from November to December, seen at 146.07.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD is down 0.3% to 1.2715 at the lows for the day while USD/CAD is also up 0.1% to 1.3420 from around 1.3390 earlier. The antipodeans are also struggling with AUD/USD down 0.4% to 0.6655 and NZD/USD down 0.9% to 0.6185. The latter is threatening a steeper technical drop as highlighted earlier here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -0.7%

The reading matches estimates with the breakdown as per the following:

• Durable consumer goods -2.0%
• Capital goods -0.8%
• Intermediate goods -0.6%
• Energy +0.9%
• Non-durable consumer goods +1.2%

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior €11.1 billion

The seasonally adjusted trade balance also shows an improving surplus of €14.8 billion, where exports were seen up 0.9% on the month while imports fell by 0.6% on the month.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last week, the S&P 500 closed around the highs
as the market continued to trade on the soft-landing narrative. In fact,
despite the slightly higher than expected US CPI figures,
the US Jobless Claims improved
further and the US PPI data
missed forecasts. Moreover, the Fedspeak has been generally neutral with no
strong pushback against the market’s rate cuts expectations. Today, the market
will be closed for MLK Day, but we will have some important events throughout
the week.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500
ended the last week around the highs with the market continuing to see a
goldilocks economy with falling inflation and stable employment and growth. We
can expect the sellers to step in around the all-time high with a defined risk
above it to position for a drop into the 4700 support first
and upon a further break, target the 4547 level.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price is diverging with
the MACD right
at the all-time high. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often
followed by pullbacks or reversals. This might be another bearish confluence for
the sellers and should give them a bit more conviction for a correction into
the 4700 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely increase the bullish
bets on a break of the all-time high.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action and we can see that we have a minor trendline
defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning
on the trendline to position for further upside. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to pile in and target the 4700 support.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow, all eyes will be on Fed’s Waller as the
market will be eager to see if he decides to pushback against the aggressive
rate cuts expectations. On Wednesday, we will get the US Retail Sales report
while on Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.