Headlines:

• USD/JPY nudges lower, eyes on next key technical level
• Bitcoin takes another look above $70,000 to start the week
• ECB’s Kažimír says should wait until June for first rate cut
• Japan Business Federation head says feeling greater momentum for wage hikes this year
• China still can’t shake off property market woes
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 8 March CHF 477.4 bn vs CHF 478.5 bn prior

Markets:

• JPY leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
• US 10-year yields down 0.7 bps to 4.081%
• Gold flat at $2,177.42
• WTI crude down 0.3% to $77.25
• Bitcoin up 4.8% to $71,688

It’s a quiet start to the new week in Europe, with little on the agenda to really get traders out of bed. All eyes are on the bigger events later this week, so there’s not much to get excited about today.

In FX, the Japanese yen continues to hold firm and maintains its form from last week. USD/JPY dipped early in Asia to 146.53 before recovering to 147.00 and then falling back to 147.50 during the session. As for the dollar itself, it is mostly steadier and trading within narrow ranges against the other major currencies.

Instead, it was Bitcoin that is the main mover as the cryptocurrency looks to seal a break above $70,000. It is up nearly 5% now in a run towards the $72,000 mark on the day.

In the equities space, European indices are lower as they take a bit of a cue from Wall Street on Friday. US futures also slumped a little during the session but are now just down slightly by 0.2% on the day.

In other markets, bonds and gold are looking rather lackluster for the most part. The changes are light as it doesn’t look like traders have much appetite to chase anything before the US CPI data tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last Friday, the Dow Jones ended the day negative
following the US NFP report.
There was something for everyone. In fact, for the buyers, the payrolls number
beat expectations while the average hourly earnings missed. For the sellers,
the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9% and the household survey showed a third
consecutive month of job losses. In this case, the technicals should help in
determining the next move for the market as we break some key levels.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones broke
out of the rising wedge to the
downside and the buyers failed to rally back above the bottom trendline. This
has opened the door for a bigger correction into the 38043 level first and upon
a further break lower, the 37128 level. The sellers will now pile in with more
conviction to position for the drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price reversing and rising back above the bottom trendline
to invalidate the bearish setup and target new highs.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price has been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, given the break of the wedge, we could be
in front of a reversal. We can see that the price recently got rejected from
the resistance formed
by the downward minor trendline and the red 21 moving average.
That’s where the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the trendline to
position for a drop into the 38043 level.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the rejection from the downward trendline.
The sellers are now in control and a break below the swing low at 38570 should
trigger a stronger selloff as the sellers will increase the bearish bets into
new lows. The buyers should wait for the price to reach the 38043 level to buy
the dip with a better risk to reward setup or wait for the price to break above
the downward trendline to invalidate the bearish setup and position for new
highs.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we have the main event of the week, that is
the US CPI report. On Thursday we get the US PPI, the US Retail Sales and the
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University
of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

In its filing to the SEC, Reddit plans to raise up to $748 million as it sells about 22 million shares – of which 15.3 million will be Class A common shares. The range for the launch is between $31 to $34 per share, with the fully diluted valuation being near $6.5 billion if taking the top end of the range.

This is going to be one of more anticipated launches as it also represents the first major tech IPO for the year. And considering where the market is trading, the interest could be taken as a litmus test for overall sentiment.

But a key distinction here is that Reddit is more of a social media platform/forum at best. I won’t be one to deny that I browse through it every day as the Subreddits make it extremely easy to follow, gather information, ask questions, and stay up to date with whatever your interests may be.

As such, this makes Reddit the first social media IPO since Pinterest back in 2019. At its peak, Reddit is said to be valued around $10 billion back during the pandemic. So, $6.5 billion is not quite as ecstatic if you needed some context on the numbers above.

Nonetheless, it will still be one of the more closely watched stocks this year once it launches. Reddit will go live under the ticker RDDT, with reports suggesting that the counter will open on 21 March.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Rushing the move is not smart nor beneficial
• Upside risks to inflation are „alive and kicking“
• Need more hard evidence on inflation outlook
• Only in June will we reach the confidence threshold on that
• But discussions on easing should ready start, will use the weeks ahead for that

This just reaffirms the current market expectations. If all goes according to plan, the ECB should communicate its intention to pivot in April. That will be followed up by the first rate cut in June. The odds of an April move are a measly ~13% with June fully priced in at the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.