• The S&P index closed at a new record level for the 45th time this year.
• The Dow industrial average also closed at a record today.
• The NASDAQ index closed higher today and is within 1.66% of it’s all time record close reached back on July 10 at 18647.45.
• The small-cap Russell 2000 was the biggest gainer today with a search of 2.10%. It is within 1.35% of it’s all time high close at 2263.67.

A snapshot of the closing levels currently shows:

• Dow industrial average +409.74 points or 0.97% at 42863.86.
• S&P index up 34.98 points or 0.61% have 5815.03.
• NASDAQ index up 60.89 points or 0.33% at 18342.94.
• Russell 2000 up 45.99 points or 2.10% at 2234.41.

For the trading week:

• Dow industrial average +1.21%
• S&P index up 1.11%
• NASDAQ index +1.13%
• Russell 2000 up 0.97%

Some big winners this week:

• Trump Media & Technology Group: +53.21%
• Uber Tech: +16.14%
• Super Micro Computer: +15.89%
• Robinhood Markets: +14.77%
• CrowdStrike Holdings: +9.57%
• Celsius: +9.02%
• Palo Alto Networks: +9.01%
• Palantir: +8.72%
• Snowflake: +8.12%
• Arm: +8.01%
• NVIDIA: +7.91%
• SoFi Technologies: +7.39%
• Wells Fargo & Co: +7.06%

Some big losers this week:

• Raytheon: -17.17%
• Tesla: -12.95%
• First Solar: -8.51%
• Nio A ADR: -7.89%
• Tencent ADR: -6.65%
• Alibaba ADR: -3.88%
• General Mills: -3.79%
• Worthington Industries: -3.68%
• ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ: -3.50%
• iShares Global Clean Energy: -3.18%
• Moderna: -3.17%
• Dollar Tree: -2.76%
• GameStop Corp: -2.76%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Canada September employment change +46.7K vs +27.0K expected
• US PPI final demand August YoY 1.8% vs 1.6% est. Ex Food and energy 2.8% vs 2.7% est.
• US October UMich prelim consumer sentiment 68.9 vs 70.8 expected
• Bank of Canada business outlook survey says „demand is weak“
• Fed’s Logan: Less-restrictive policy will still cool inflation
• Baker Hughes oil rig count up +2 to 481
• Tesla shares fall 8% after robotaxi event panned for lack of details

Markets:

• Gold up $26 to $2655
• US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.08%
• WTI crude down 30 cents to $75.56
• NZD leads, JPY lags
• S&P 500 up 0.7%, touches fresh record

Friday turned into a classic risk-on day but it’s not entirely clear why. Stock futures were negative and the US dollar was steady in pre-market trading but big bids hit at the US equity open and FX followed the same pattern, with Treasury yields falling led by the front end.

Data was mixed with PPI following CPI slightly higher while UMich sentiment missed to the downside slightly. A more-likely culprit was bank earnings, including comments from J.P. Morgan that consumer spending was steady and not deteriorating. Earnings at JPM and Wells Fargo were also good, boosting financial shares broadly.

There is anticipation of announcements of further Chinese fiscal stimulus at press events on Saturday and Monday so that could dictate early-week trading.

Overall moves were small but the yen was a notable underperformer. That’s most-likely a product of the risk trade but there could also be some position squaring as we count down to the US and Japanese elections. The S&P 500 rose to record intraday and closing highs with small caps particularly strong today and the Russell 2000 up 2%.

The loone was a notable underperformer once again. The session high came before the strong jobs data and that led to a 50 pip decline initially. However that drop didn’t entirely last as buyers stepped in quickly and then more-strongly after the BOC business outlook survey. The Oct 23 BOC decision is likely to become a litmus test for global central bank easing. Current pricing is 50/50 for 25 bps or 50 bps. The loonie has now declined for eight straight days, which is ominous given the backdrop in oil and stocks in that time period.

Note that US bonds and Canadian markets are closed Monday for a holiday.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Believes the neutral rate is higher than it used to be in the past
• The Funds rate is high relative to where inflation is currently
• Always want to keep monetary policy moving to where the economy is going.
• There is room to go in nominal funds rate before reaching the neutral rate.
• Fed has to be more forward-looking than the market
• I don’t think that much has changed in the economy
• A Fed policy maker time horizon is more longer term
• I would cut rates by 25 bps. A stop-and-go is not a good look for the Fed.
• The recent data has not changed the medium-term economic outlook

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Democrat nominee Harris is now promising Republican representation in her cabinet.

Equal time to GOP nominee Trump, some of his recent promises:

• Interest on car loans will be fully tax-deductible.
• Intends to invoke the six-year renegotiation provision of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
• No Chinese EVs will ever drive on American roads
• Proposes a “detailed plan to save the American auto industry.”
• Vows to end double taxation for Americans living abroad. He is encouraging expats to register to vote.
• Promises to eliminate taxes on tips, Social Security benefits, and overtime pay.
• Proposes lifting the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions.
• Plans to extend individual income and estate tax provisions of the 2017 tax cuts law.

The problem with the interest on car loans is it applies to those that itemize deductions. Most American’s do not itemize deductions but take the lump sum amount each year.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.