<p>BTCUSD had a nice rally above 3% yesterday but volume is not strong and bitcoin can easily test the 20k mark or close to it. We aim for a short position with a ‚take profit‘ target that is in line with testing an important VWAP, and is much higher than that 20 thousand dollar key price point. In fact, we aim to take profit and exit the trade even above 21k, at $21421</p><p>Still, in crypto trading, this is above 7.5% move, and at a leverage of 5 to 1, this is almost a 40% return on the capital committed on the trade. Remember that we are not suggested or telling you to trade, nor is this a signal service. It is an opinion and through that perspective, we also show a view of the current technical analysis for bitcoin. In this case, on the daily timeframe. In other words, our trade idea is a means to show you a certain technical analysis.</p><p>Firstly, some bulls have probably set a stop below a recent key low that they see. A prominent one is the 26 July low, so they would set their stops at around $20300. This price level is close to a notable Fib price level (0.382) and not far from a key ‚round number‘ and key price level of $20k. If institutions want to stop out the bulls, even those that think they set a healthy, distant stop, then BTCUSD could easily go down within the range of $19900 to $20600, to have those bulls hit their stops. </p><p>Secondly, in this specific technical analysis for the crypto king, we analyze the BTCUSD price chart using an Anchored VWAP. It ties calculations to a price bar that the trader has chosen. It is like the traditional VWAP in that it uses a weighted average of the price and the number of trades. It can also find the areas of support and resistance on the chart, just like VWAP. In this case, we anchor the VWAP from the pivot point and the low of the recent period, which is 17567, the low of 18th of June.</p><p>Thirdly, BTCUSD had made 4 pushes up since that low, creating what some algos and pro traders would view as ascending wedge. A rising wedge pattern is a bearish chart pattern that shows a breakdown may be coming soon, in probability that is higher than 50%. That is a a suffient chance when taking into consideration that the profit target here is 1.5 times the risk (the distance from the entry to the stop loss).</p><p>Who knows, maybe this bitcoin price forecast is partially affected by a bias because <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/every-us-crypto-exchange-and-binance-is-being-investigated-by-the-sec-20220805/“>every U.S. Crypto Exchange (and Binance) is being investigated by the SEC</a>.</p><p>Technical analysis OSCILLATORS, for BTCUSD on a weekly timeframe:</p><p>When analyzing technicals for bitcoin vs the USD, one can look at oscillators as a technical analysis tool that provides a trend indication inside high and low ranges. The trend indicator identifies short-term overbought or oversold conditions.</p><p>Looking at the weekly timeframe, BTCUSD is fairly neutral, according to the following technical analysis of oscillators and their values.</p><p>Technical analysis MOVING AVERAGES, for BTCUSD on a weekly timeframe:</p><p>When analyzing technicals for bitcoin vs the USD, one can look at moving averages to examine the BTCUSD weekly trend. Sum all the data points for a given time period and divide by the number of time periods. Moving averages help technical traders.</p><p>Looking at the weekly timeframe, BTCUSD is fairly weak, according to the moving average indicators and their values. </p><p>Update on the trade idea provided (short BTCUSD):</p><p>Traders that wish to take partial profit, may do so, at that 20 EMA line, or just above it at $22750, if and when BTCUSD gets there. Entry price for the BTCUSD short was at $23201, so that would be a profitable trade taking a 2.1% move. On a leverage of 5 to 1, that would be a 10.5% return. Some traders would even take partial profit now, as BTCUSD erased its current daily gain and is at apx, $22970, pocketing over a leveraged profit for over a 1% move, equivalent to a 5% profit on the 5-to-1 leveraged trade.</p><p>———————</p><p>For this update, we used <a target=“_blank“ href=“www.tradingview.com“>TradingView</a>, a great tool for new and seasoned chartists, traders and investors. Trade bitcoin or any other crypto currencies at your own risk only. Visit ForexLive <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/t/technical-analysis/“ target=“_blank“ id=“97b48ade-9582-40e4-af10-290ec70138af_8″ class=“terms__main-term“>technical analysis</a> for other technical examinations of a variety of financial assets.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.