Closing changes:

• S&P 500 +0.6%
• DJIA +0.7%
• Nasdaq Comp +.09%
• Russell 2000 +0.4%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.5%

On the week:

• S&P 500 +0.8
• DJIA -0.4%
• Nasdaq Comp +2.3%
• Russell 2000 -0.4%
• Toronto TSX Comp -0.1%

The chart of the Russell 2000 is concerning. It looks topped out and the economy is weakening. There was a doji this week on an otherwise-decent week for risk trades. Maybe it can stabilize if yields come back down but four weeks in a row of declines isn’t promising.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• In no rush to say that we are done on rates, a rate pause wouldn’t mean stopping
• We will see the data then decide
• Stopping too early is bigger problem than cutting
• Should return to 2% target sooner than end-2025

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Disinflation has to be ‚timely‘ and ’sustainable‘
• German growth not broken and demonstrating resilience
• Proximity to war in Ukraine part of the reason for differing economic paths for US and Europe
• Changing inflation target would be ‚deceptive‘ and counter to anchoring expectations

That’s a dovish headline from Lagarde, though hardly a signal about a Sept pause.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Equities hold steadier on the day, at least for now..
• A look at the Fed pricing ahead of Jackson Hole later today
• ICYMI: The agenda for the Jackson Hole symposium
• Germany August Ifo business climate index 85.7 vs 86.7 expected
• Germany Q2 final GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% q/q prelim
• China reportedly plans to cut stamp duty on stock trading in bid to recover sentiment
• BOJ to keep policy as it is until at least July 2024 – poll

Markets:

• USD mixed
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 4.245%
• Gold down 0.1% to $1,916.18
• WTI crude up 1.2% to $80.02
• Bitcoin up 0.3% to $26,092

It was a quiet session in terms of headlines as markets are waiting on the Jackson Hole symposium or more specifically Fed chair Powell’s speech later. Personally, I don’t expect anything new from Powell but it has been a while since he last spoke and markets are hoping for something to work with.

Equities are keeping steadier on the day but as has been the case in the past two weeks, the heavy selling tends to only hit in US trading. So, watch out for now. I wouldn’t look much into the slight gains today unless Wall Street follows up on that.

The dollar was slightly higher earlier on but has seen gains pared during the session. EUR/USD looked to keep with the downside break in a push to 1.0770 but is now being rechecked back at 1.0800. Similarly, GBP/USD touched a low of 1.2560 but has reversed higher to 1.2610 for now at least.

All eyes will be on equities sentiment once again and if we do see another ugly session ahead, that should keep the dollar underpinned.

I wish you all a pleasant Friday and a wonderful weekend ahead!

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It was mostly the euro and pound which were pressured lower against the dollar earlier. But we are seeing both currencies turn back to near flat levels on the day now with EUR/USD back up to 1.0800 and GBP/USD up to just above the 1.2600 mark. Here’s a snapshot of things and you can see how the ranges remain fairly tight and dollar pairs are basically flat currently:

After having been wrong-footed yesterday, it seems like European traders are happy to wait on North America traders to make their move especially as stocks have the risk and tendency to reverse later in the day.

Going back to the dollar, EUR/USD has key resistance at around 1.0800 with the 200-day moving average at 1.0802 one to watch today as highlighted here. Besides that, GBP/USD is keeping below its 100-day moving average and that key level is seen at 1.2638. Stay below that and sellers will be in control.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As such, the calm and steadier mood we’re seeing today belies the nervousness and fragile sentiment that is prevailing currently. Here’s a snapshot so far on the day:

• Eurostoxx +0.6%
• Germany DAX +0.5%
• France CAC 40 +0.7%
• UK FTSE +0.4%
• S&P 500 futures +0.2%
• Nasdaq futures +0.1%
• Dow futures +0.3%

After being burned by the Nvidia hopium yesterday, tech stocks are the ones that are less enthused so far today. And after the ugly reversal, the S&P 500 has pretty much erased gains for the week although the Nasdaq is still up a little over 1%. The Dow is the laggard as it is now down over 1% on the week coming into today.

In any case, just be wary that the pessimism can quickly accelerate in US trading as we have seen time and time again in the past two weeks. So far, broader markets are also calmer on the day as such. But if we are to lean to being more risk averse again, the dollar is likely to shine before the weekend comes along.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
  expected and kept everything unchanged.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency
  and kept all the options on the table.
• The US economic data keeps on surprising to the
  upside, but inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to show
  disinflation with the last two Core CPI M/M figures
  coming in at 0.16%.
• The US PMIs missed
  expectations across the board and brought down Treasury yields weakening the US
  Dollar, but the US Jobless Claims came out
  better than expected once again and supported the USD.
• At the moment, the market doesn’t expect another
  hike from the Fed, but the next NFP and CPI data will be crucial to confirm or
  change this view.

New Zealand:

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged while
  stating that it will remain at the restrictive level for the foreseeable future
  to ensure that inflation comes down back to target.
• The recent New Zealand inflation and employment data surprised to the upside but
  the PMIs are in contraction with the Services PMI last week plunging into
  contraction.
• The wage growth has also missed
  expectations and it’s something that the central banks are watching closely for
  second round effects.
• The New Zealand Retail Sales beat expectations although remain
  deeply negative.
• The RBNZ is expected to keep the
  cash rate steady at the next meeting.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that after breaking
the May low and falling into the 0.59 handle, NZDUSD rallied back to retest the
broken support now turned resistance before
restarting the downtrend. The sellers are firmly in control and the breakout
opened the door for a fall into the 0.5514 level.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD for a
while. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we got the pullback into the trendline where we
had also the confluence with the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where the sellers piled in with a defined risk above the level to
target new lows. The buyers will need the price to break above the trendline to
switch the bias from bearish to bullish and start targeting new higher highs.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is bouncing from the previous low. A good resistance for the sellers
might be the one around the 0.5925 level where the price has reacted to
multiple times and where we can also find the red 21 moving average for
confluence. More conservative sellers may want to wait for the price to break
below the recent low to pile in and target new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today the only major
event is Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The
expectations though are for him to take a “wait and see” approach as we have
more key economic data ahead before the next FOMC meeting.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Man, oh man! As someone who’s watched the NBA for decades, I’ve had my fair share of debates. The typical ‚Kobe or Mike?‘ or ‚LeBron or Mike?‘ – and every single time, I’ve said, „MJ all the way!“. And now, just to add a little more icing on the cake, Mike is now officially the richest baller to ever grace the courts. Talk about being the GOAT in basketball and in business! 💰🏀

And if we’re talking about the greatest sport person ever alive, we gotts show some of his moves as we talk about how much dough he made…

From barely having two nickels to rub together in his childhood to touching a staggering net worth of $3.5 billion, MJ’s story is the epitome of the American dream. Ain’t just about the dunks; it’s about those dollar signs, baby! Thanks, Bloomberg Billionaires Index, for the heads up!

Here’s a quick snapshot of the journey:

• Rough Childhood: Growing up wasn’t all glitz and glam. MJ faced financial hardships but never let it define him.
• Player’s Paycheck: He raked in over $94 million during his NBA career alone. And, oh boy, every cent was earned with those mesmerizing moves on the court!
• The Endorsement Era: MJ’s name was GOLD. Collaborations with giants like Nike, Coca-Cola, and McDonald’s? Hundreds of millions right there!
• Charlotte Hornets: Not just a player, MJ’s the boss too! His major stake in the Charlotte Hornets? Well, that’s a billion-dollar ball game.
• Businessman Mike: Restaurant chains, golf courses… you name it, MJ’s got a piece of it. Million-dollar ventures that keep on giving.

And if you’re thinking this is where the story ends, think again. MJ’s still pretty young in the grand scheme of things. With his knack for business and those clever investments, there’s no cap to his wealth. The sky’s the limit!

You know, it’s not just about the money. It’s about resilience, vision, and the will to be the best. Mike’s life is a testament to the saying, “Where there’s a will, there’s a way.” If MJ’s story doesn’t light a fire in you, I don’t know what will. To the kid from Wilmington who became a global icon: You’re an inspiration, Mike! 🐐🏆💰

BTW, here are the richest athletes in the world…

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

The
selloff that started at the beginning of August is starting to show signs of
weakness. Although nothing changed fundamentally, the Nasdaq Composite started
to rise as the market was just probably overstretched. This looks more like a
pullback as the miss in yesterday’s US PMIs doesn’t
support the bullish case.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite bounced from a key support level at
13174 and rallied back strongly into the broken trendline and the
red 21 moving average. This is
where we can expect the sellers to pile in with a defined risk above the
trendline to target a break below the 13174 support.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
strong bounce on the 13174 support and the strong resistance that we have
around the 13820 level where we can also find the confluence with the
Fibonacci retracement levels
and the previous support now turned resistance.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see the
resistance zone with the market likely to open today around those levels as
Nvidia yesterday after the close crushed expectations across the board. So, at
the open we might see a “sell the fact” but more conservative sellers may want
to wait for the price to fall below the black counter-trendline first before
positioning for more downside.

Upcoming
Events

Today we will have the latest US Jobless Claims
report where the market will want to see if the labour market is still holding
or starting to weaken. Strong data may cause some hawkish repricing in
expectations and it’s unclear if the market will take it as good news because
of the resilient labour market or bad news because the Fed will keep at it.
Weak data should be more straight forward as it’s likely to cause recessionary
fears given the yesterday’s PMIs and send the market lower. Tomorrow we will
hear from Fed Chair Powell who is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium,
although the expectations are for him to just repeat their data dependency and
keep all the options on the table.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Mixed flows so far in European morning trade
• Aussie finds it tough to build on recent bounce
• US data in focus later today
• France August business confidence 99 vs 100 prior
• UK August retailing reported sales -44 vs -25 prior
• China announces suspension of all aquatic products from Japan
• Australian bank CEO says Australia unlikely to enter recession, housing market holding up

Markets:

• USD leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.6%
• US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 4.213%
• Gold up 0.2% to $1,917.66
• WTI crude up 0.2% to $79.07
• Bitcoin down 0.3% to $26,509

It was a quiet session for the most part but there were some decent albeit mixed flows in markets today.

Equities are buoyed since Asia trading, after Nvidia’s earnings beat helped to boost sentiment. US futures are holding higher, led by tech shares, with Nasdaq futures up by 1.1% and S&P 500 futures up by 0.6%. However, Dow futures are slightly lower now and down by 0.1% so perhaps not everything is bright and rosy in the equities space.

The less enthusiastic mood is also shared by the antipodean currencies today with both the aussie and kiwi keeping lower. Both were initially little changed against the dollar but AUD/USD is now down 0.5% to 0.6445 and NZD/USD down 0.7% to 0.5940 at the lows for the day.

The dollar is overall keeping steadier, with USD/JPY holding higher by 0.5% to 145.50 levels again as Treasury yields nudge a little higher. 10-year yields were down to around 4.18% earlier but have now recovered to around 4.21% on the day.

Besides that, the euro is little changed against the dollar while cable is down 0.4% to 1.2670 as the pound struggles to maintain yesterday’s rebound.

The thing to watch now is to see if tech shares can hold their head above water later today, with US weekly jobless claims coming up as well. If not, we might be set for a bit of an uglier end to the week if stock investors truly do go with the buy the rumour, sell the fact play after Nvidia.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.