There will no be no changes to key interest rates today and no tweaks to other policy instruments as well. So, that leaves very little for the ECB to work with and not much for markets to really scrutinise overall. It’s going to be all about the language and how the ECB wants to communicate their future steps, although whether or not traders believe that is another thing.

The base case is that the central bank is going to maintain most of the language from September, acknowledging more positive inflation developments. That should outline their cause for pause before emphasising that at this point, sticking with higher rates for longer is the more impactful decision in the fight against inflation.

I reckon Lagarde might also point to some risks amid the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but she should fall short of saying that such a development would be enough to warrant further rate hikes amid more persistent inflation. The magic words will be „it is still too early to tell“.

Besides that, I don’t see much else that the ECB can work with at this point. There might be a word or two about potentially discussing unwinding PEPP reinvestments earlier but I would expect policymakers to keep kicking that can down the road. As such, it might not feature too prominently in the statement or in Lagarde’s comments later on.

The ECB has sold a pause and they now have to go with that, at least for the time being. I would expect that even with worsening economic conditions, Lagarde will still tout that they have room to work with should they need to hike in December. But not any time sooner and so, there should not be any fireworks today.

So, where does this leave the euro?

At the balance, the single currency should not be too much impacted as we already know what to expect from the ECB. And their recent communication has also emphasised what they will try to sell again from today’s meeting. In the case of EUR/USD, the stronger dollar now will be the more crucial factor driving price action alongside bond yields and broader market sentiment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -14

That’s a poor reading for the monthly retail sales balance as UK retailers suffer the joint-worst October on record, according to CBI. Retailers are seen cutting orders to suppliers and are expected to do so again in November and that does not bode well heading into the winter months. High interest rates and cost-of-living concerns are definitely the problem right now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This week started like the last one with a broader
rally in the markets as the risk sentiment got supported by another lack of a
ground operation in Gaza over the weekend and the positive news about a couple
of hostages being released. Yesterday, on the other hand, we got the complete
reverse with the Dow Jones opening lower and selling off for no apparent reason
except a reaction to some key resistance levels. The selloff accelerated in the
evening as the Israeli PM Netanyahu said
that they were preparing for a ground invasion. Will we see another selloff
into the weekend?

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that after a brief
bounce at the start of the week, the Dow Jones yesterday began to fall again.
The sellers are eyeing the 32597 level at the moment as the risk sentiment remains
negative. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the level to position for a rally back into the trendline around
the 34000 level.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that there’s not
much to glean from this timeframe. The buyers might want to step in already at
the equal lows but in the current context, there’s a high chance that the Dow
Jones continues to fall into the weekend.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price yesterday rejected the resistance around
the 33265 level where we had the confluence with
the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. The buyers will want to see the
price breaking above the trendline to gain more confidence and pile in to
target a rally into the 34000 resistance.

Upcoming Events

Today, we will see the US Jobless Claims data with
the market likely focusing on the Continuing Claims figures as they’ve been
recently showing some softness. The market may not like bad data given the
fragile risk sentiment. Tomorrow, we will get the US PCE report, which is not
expected to change anything for the Fed at this point in time.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

It’s still a hard one to read as to whether or not the 90-pip drop in USD/JPY earlier had to do with Tokyo intervention. The size and speed of the fall is suggestive but then why all of a sudden at 150.70 and not at a level just above 150.00 again like before? There are certainly some question marks about that. But since then, the pair has stabilised somewhat although traders are weary about pushing it too far above the figure level now:

There is the possibility that the drop was also triggered by the algos, with there being a note by BofA touting the possibility of the BOJ raising its 10-year JGB yield ceiling to 1.50% next week. That comes amid the rising pressure in bond yields globally. But in any case, the fact that USD/JPY is able to work its way back up above 150.00 is convincing enough to say that the drop isn’t one that matters all too much from a technical perspective – at least for now.

That being said, the dollar has since cooled off and is now trading mostly little changed across the board as the earlier gains are now looking rather tentative in European morning trade.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Australian dollar surrenders gains from stronger CPI data earlier
• What are the odds of a RBA rate hike next month now?
• Bitcoin consolidates gains after ETF ticker fiasco
• Germany October Ifo business climate index 86.9 vs 85.9 expected
• Eurozone September M3 money supply -1.2% vs -1.7% y/y expected
• Switzerland October Credit Suisse investor sentiment -37.8 vs -27.6 prior
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 20 October -1.0% vs -6.9% prior
• IMF’s Georgieva: Inflation is still high
• Hong Kong to cut stamp duty on stock trading to 0.10% from 0.13%
• Japan reportedly eyes one-year income, resident tax cuts from June next year

Markets:

• USD leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 1.9 bps to 4.859%
• Gold up 0.2% to $1,973.24
• WTI crude flat at $83.69
• Bitcoin up 1.0% to $34,253

It was a slower session today as traders didn’t have as much to work with in European morning trade compared to yesterday, though there were some decent moves all around.

The Australian dollar was the standout in Asia, advancing after a stronger-than-expected inflation report but gave it all back during the session and then some. This comes as stocks are pinned down, in particular tech shares after a mixed picture from Microsoft and Google’s earnings releases overnight.

AUD/USD was up to near 0.6400 earlier on but is now down 0.3% on the day to 0.6335 as the dollar also firmed slightly.

USD/JPY continues to hover just below 150.00 as Treasury yields keep steadier while EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.0575 from around 1.0590 earlier in the session. GBP/USD is marked down by 0.3% to 1.2125 as the greenback is keeping the advance from yesterday going, amid sluggish European PMI data.

Besides that, Bitcoin continues to consolidate gains after a bit of a fiasco with regards to its ETF ticker – keeping above $34,000 for now.

If anything else, watch out for the 5-year Treasury auction later as that could be a catalyst for a move in markets – more so than the BOC and Powell I reckon.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Today,
The Open Network Foundation (TON Foundation) has announced a strategic alliance with Mantle Network, a
leading Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) Layer 2 solutions provider. This
agreement positions Mantle Network as a principal ally to TON Foundation
towards more interoperable EVM-compatible Layer 2 blockchain capabilities on
TON.

A
wrapped version of $MNT, $jMNT, is now accessible for trading and liquidity
provisions on STON.fi, a cross-chain decentralized exchange (DEX). This wrapped
token allows for easier interactions and integrations between Mantle and TON.
$jMNT also streamlines access for fluid and expansive trading capabilities
between networks.

This
comprehensive agreement goes beyond token integration as the two entities will
utilize the @community_bot, a Telegram-native toolset for communities, to serve
as an education and information distribution platform. This initiative will
connect users in Mantle’s Telegram channels and Mantle Ecosystem project
channels directly to TON’s thriving community on Telegram. By fostering mutual
information exchange and enhanced community interactions, both communities will
benefit while building a Web3 ecosystem in Telegram for the messaging
platform’s 800+ million monthly active users.

„This
initiative with Mantle Network bridges the gap between our communities,
establishing a more interconnected and interoperable Web3 ecosystem for
Telegram’s large user base, said Justin Hyun, Director of Growth at TON
Foundation. „Together, we are equipping users across both ecosystems with
the most simple cross-chain experience possible.”“We are thrilled to find a
common purpose with TON Foundation through a strong alliance that will allow
the core competency of each to shine and bring the greatest benefits to both
communities,” said Jordi Alexander, Chief Alchemist of Mantle. “As TON
Foundation’s principal ally towards advancing EVM-compatible Layer 2 blockchain
capabilities on TON, we will work hand in hand with TON to help realize the
vision of an interoperable multichain future that puts the users at the
center.”

About
TON Foundation

The Open
Network Foundation (https://ton.foundation/) is a non-profit organization
founded in Switzerland in 2023. TON Foundation is 100% funded by the community,
acting in the community’s interests, and supports initiatives aligned with The
Open Network’s mission.

About
The Open Network (TON)

The Open
Network (TON) is putting crypto in every pocket. By building a Web3 ecosystem
in Telegram Messenger, TON is giving billions the opportunity to own their
digital identity, data, and assets.

About
Mantle

Mantle Ecosystem
comprises an Ethereum layer 2 (L2) — Mantle Network, a decentralized autonomous
organization (DAO) — Mantle Governance, one of the largest on-chain treasuries
— Mantle Treasury, and an upcoming Ether (ETH) liquid staking product — Mantle
LSD: all built on Ethereum. Mantle token is the unified product and governance
token of the ecosystem. Mantle’s first core product is Mantle Network, an
Ethereum L2. Mantle Network strives to be compatible with the Ethereum Virtual
Machine. Mantle Network’s modular architecture separates transaction execution,
data availability, and transaction finality into modules — which can be
individually upgraded and adopt the latest innovations. Mantle Network is the
first L2 to partner with ETH restaking protocol EigenLayer for the data
availability module. By adopting a rollup architecture, Mantle Network is
secured by Ethereum. As the world’s first DAO-spawned L2, Mantle Network is
pioneering a vision for the mass adoption of token-governed technologies.
Mantle token ($MNT) powers Mantle Network as its native gas token and ecosystem
growth token, and serves as the governance token of Mantle Governance. All
future Mantle products will likewise be initiated by the Mantle token holder
community through vote and powered by Mantle token. To support the next
generation of innovators, builders, and developers, Mantle is growing its
ecosystem via Mantle Grants Program and Mantle EcoFund, a catalyzed capital
pool of $200M.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Tickmill, the renowned
multi-asset broker, has reinforced its commitment to client security by
securing an insurance policy for client funds. The broker partnered with
Lloyd’s and obtained comprehensive insurance coverage for its clients‘ funds,
providing a safety net of up to $1,000,000 in the event of unforeseen and
extreme circumstances.

While Tickmill has
always been at the forefront of safeguarding client assets, this latest
initiative introduces an additional layer of protection, one that sets it apart
from many brokers in the market. The insurance policy, brokered with the
prestigious Lloyd’s, is a testament to Tickmill’s dedication to its clients‘ funds
protection.

Tickmill already has
several measures in place, including stringent regulatory compliance, robust
finances, vast liquidity, and tight scrutiny of partnering banks. This new
insurance policy, however, serves as the ultimate reassurance for clients, even
in the most improbable and unforeseeable events.

„At Tickmill, we
believe that our clients‘ peace of mind is paramount. We have always taken
extensive measures to protect their investments. This insurance policy is a
testament to our commitment to their funds’ security. Our clients can trade
with confidence, knowing that Tickmill will always go the extra mile to protect
their interests,“ Sudhanshu Agarwal, Executive Director of the Tickmill
Group, commented.

The insurance policy is
subject to terms and conditions, for more information about Tickmill’s
commitment to client security and the new insurance policy, click here.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The copper market remains
in a tight spot. The Chinese data continues to improve amid more support from
the Chinese officials while the future outlook of the global economy is
weakening given the tighter financial conditions and some early cracks in the labour
markets. The technicals should be more helpful here as we have defined levels
and breakouts will point to the most likely direction.

Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Copper after
breaking out of the symmetrical triangle got
stuck in a descending triangle defined by the support around
the 3.55 level and the top trendline. We
recently got a fakeout below the support and a quick bounce back up as the
buyers continue to target the top trendline amid resilience in the global
economy and the improving Chinese data.

Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that Copper is now
trading in a range between the 3.55 support and the 3.68 resistance where we
have also a trendline for confluence. We can
expect the sellers to lean on the resistance with a defined risk above it to
target the support and ultimately a downside breakout. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking above the resistance to increase the
bullish bets and target the major trendline around the 3.75 level.

Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a good support zone around the 3.63 level where we have the confluence
with the trendline and the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level. This is where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to target the
resistance and eventually a breakout. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking lower to pile in and target the support.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims data
with the market likely focusing on the Continuing Claims figures as they’ve
missed expectations two times in a row already and might be a signal that the
labour market is weakening. Weak jobless claims could weigh on Copper, while
good data is likely to support it. On Friday, we will get the US PCE report
which is unlikely to change anything for the near-term policy outlook.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -6.9%
• Market index 165.2 vs 166.9 prior
• Purchase index 127.0 vs 129.8 prior
• Refinance index 354.0 vs 347.6 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.90% vs 7.70% prior

Yikes, the average rate of the most popular US home loan is now up to near 8% – the highest since September 2000 – and that is continuing to put a drag on mortgage activity. This time, purchase activity is the one slumping and is offset slightly be refinancing activity on the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Flailing German economy fails to breath confidence in the euro
• France October flash services PMI 46.1 vs 44.6 expected
• Germany October flash manufacturing PMI 40.7 vs 40.0 expected
• Eurozone October flash services PMI 47.8 vs 48.7 expected
• Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -28.1 vs -26.6 expected
• UK October flash services PMI 49.2 vs 49.3 expected
• UK August ILO unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.3% expected
• ECB’s Lagarde to EU officials: Inflation fight is going well
• ECB’s Makhlouf: Far too early to tell consequences of Middle East situation
• RBA’s Bullock: Australian dollar relatively stable, not a concern for policy
• We are going to see higher interest rates for longer – Larry Fink
• Loan demand by firms and households continue to decline sharply – ECB survey

Markets:

• AUD leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%
• US 10-year yields up 2.3 bps to 4.861%
• Gold down 0.6% to $1,961.07
• WTI crude up 0.3% to $84.75
• Bitcoin up 4.1% to $34,458

Falling yields were the highlight yesterday and it threatened to be that way early on today as well. 10-year Treasury yields dipped to a low of 4.80% before recovering to around 4.86% currently and that took the dollar along with it for the ride.

Instead, the euro was the highlight as it slumped during the session after a weak set of PMI readings from France and Germany in particular. EUR/USD held around 1.0690 early in the session before reversing to hit a low of 1.0623 and is holding just above that on the day.

The single currency remains the weakest performer while risk trades are keeping the turnaround from yesterday and pushing higher today. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% while European indices are holding modest gains so far on the day.

That is helping to keep the aussie underpinned, with AUD/USD up 0.5% to 0.6365. Besides that, other major currencies remain more muted although we did see GBP/USD fall off as well from a high of 1.2280 to 1.2210 on the session after is own PMI data and dollar recovery.

In other markets, gold is seen tracking lower and looks poised for back-to-back daily losses for the first time in three weeks. Perhaps there is some further unwinding of safety flows at play there. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to surge with over 4% gains now to $34,458 after briefly clipping the $35,000 mark earlier in the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.