Gold futures technical analysis and my trade plan – watch the video below, gold traders and investors

As I delve into the technical analysis of gold futures on the 1-hour time frame, my focus shifts towards identifying the most strategic buying opportunities and understanding the inherent risks associated with trading in this interesting gold market.

Strategic buy zone: A deliberate Approach

My analysis points towards the next potential buy zone situated between 2337.5 and 2341.5. This targeted range is not just a random selection but is based on the underlying market dynamics observed from yesterday’s trading activity, specifically yesterday’s value area high (VAH) and yesterday’s first upper standard deviation of the volume-weighted average price (VWAP).

Diversifying entry strategies to mitigate risk

By adopting a strategy where purchases are spread out within this defined range, I can effectively manage and reduce the risks associated with market volatility. In my opinion, distributing buys within this zone not only lowers the standard deviation of risk but also averages out the entry price, offering a more favorable risk-reward ratio.

So where and why is my stop for this gold Long trade

For my money, setting my stop-loss just below the daily EMA20 and just below 2333 is crucial, as this provides a safety net against potential downturns while still allowing room for the trade to breathe. My approach balances the risk of entering at the high end of the range—which could expose me to greater downside risk—and the possibility of missing the fill at the lower end, which could forego potential gains.

Trading within the potential bull flag pattern – the yellow channel is my gold technical analysis video above

The current market formation suggests a bull flag pattern, indicating a strong potential for upward movement. I’m targeting a rebound towards yesterday’s VAH and the VWAP’s upper standard deviation around 2341. This strategic placement not only aligns with technical indicators but also with the natural market movements observed in previous sessions.

Preparedness for market fluctuations

In case the market does not move as anticipated, I have prepared strategies to mitigate losses and potentially capitalize on unforeseen movements. If the market approaches the lower band of the buy zone and does not fill, I am ready to seek alternative entries at more advantageous prices, ensuring that I am not chasing the market but rather letting the opportunities come to me.

In summary, I am trying to fill a long position at a range of 2337.5 to 2341.5, always aware that trading carries inherent risks. For those interested in following more detailed analyses and market insights, a visit to ForexLive.com can provide additional perspectives and expert opinions. Trade at your own risk, and consider these strategies to potentially enhance your trading outcomes in the gold futures market. Visit ForexLive.com for addiional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

“It’s not whether
you are right or wrong, but how much you make when you are right and how much
you lose when you are wrong”. This quote from George Soros sums up perfectly
what trading is all about.

Beginner traders
don’t want to experience the pain of loss, so they search for trading systems
that have high percentages of success and regard the win rate as an important
metric. Well, the win rate it totally irrelevant. You can be profitable with a
30% win rate and unprofitable with an 80% one.

How? Well, if you have
8 small winners and 2 big losers, you might end up at breakeven or even down.
Risk management is key here. Most successful traders are right on half or a bit
more of their trades. For example, George Soros had a 30% win rate while the
Medallion Fund, the best money making machine in history, had 50.75%.

The goal of a successful
trader is to take good asymmetric bets and cut off those that are not working
out as expected. That’s it. It’s about trading well.

This wrong focus
on the win rate leads new traders to being scammed with trading strategies that
promise very high win rates. They jump from one strategy to another as soon as
those promises don’t meet their expectations. This is a losing and dangerous
cycle that ends up in a big waste of money and eventually a drop out of
trading.

Losses are a
natural part of trading, and you just have to know how to deal with them.
Unfortunately, in the beginning, you won’t have faith in your skills to
generate consistent positive returns, just because you’ve never done that. You
should just learn how to trade and focus on trading well rather than trading
for the money.

Once you achieve a
level where you see that you have positive returns over at least 6-12 months
horizon, you will start to gain some confidence in your abilities which will
help you immensely because you will know that even if you have short term
setbacks, your long-term success won’t be affected.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

This isn’t anything new as the presumption now is that they will have the election in October. But either way, it will definitely be in the second half of the year surely at this stage. Politics is going to be stealing the spotlight towards the end of the year with the US also set to head to the polls in November.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Last Thursday, the
USD weakened across the board following the weak US
jobless claims figures where initial claims spiked to the highest level
since August 2023. Now, jobless claims are notoriously volatile, so that could
have been just a blip, but the weak consumer
sentiment report on Friday could be another supporting signal for economic weakness
ahead, although the data might have been skewed more by inflation worries.
Overall, in the short-term it wasn’t a real gamechanger and the next trend will
likely be set by the US CPI report due on Wednesday where hot data should send
the pair lower while soft figures could trigger a rally into the 1.10 handle.

EURUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily
chart, we can see that EURUSD is trading right around the key trendline
near the 1.08 handle. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a
defined risk above the 1.08 level to position for a drop into the 1.05 handle.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking to the
upside to start targeting the 1.09 handle and eventually the 1.10 level.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart,
we can see that we have kind of a range between the 1.0760 support
and the 1.0800 resistance. Given the lack of key economic releases today, we
can expect a rangebound price action until the key US data in the next couple
of days. A break above the 1.08 resistance supported by the data, should lead
to a sustained rally into new highs. Conversely, a break below the 1.0727 level
will likely take us to new lows with the 1.05 handle as the next target.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This week all eyes will be on the US CPI report due on
Wednesday, but we will have other notable releases throughout the week. We
begin tomorrow with the US PPI and Fed Chair Powell speech. On Wednesday, we
get the US CPI report and the US Retail Sales data. On Thursday, the focus will
be on the latest US Jobless Claims figures to see whether the last week’s numbers
were the start of a trend or just a fluke.

See the video below

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Monday: New
  Zealand Services PMI.
• Tuesday: Japan
  PPI, UK Labour Market Report, Eurozone ZEW, US NFIB Small Business
  Optimism Index, US PPI, Fed Chair Powell speech.
• Wednesday:
  Australia Wage Price Index, Eurozone Industrial Production, US CPI, US
  Retail Sales, US NAHB Housing Market Index, PBoC MLF.
• Thursday: Japan
  GDP, Australia Labour Market Report, US Housing Starts and Building
  Permits, US Jobless Claims, US Industrial Production.
• Friday: New
  Zealand PPI, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Fed’s Waller
  speech.

Tuesday

The UK Unemployment Rate is expected to
tick higher to 4.3% vs. 4.2% prior with Average Hourly Earnings (including
bonus) seen at 5.3% vs. 5.6% prior. Barring big surprises, this report is
unlikely to change much for the BoE as the central bank is more
focused on the two inflation reports ahead of the June meeting where it
could deliver the first rate cut. The market sees a 50/50 chance of a rate cut
in June at the moment.

The US PPI M/M is expected at 0.2% vs.
0.2% prior, while the Core PPI M/M is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior. There’s a
risk of an upside surprise considering that both the prices paid components
in the ISM
PMIs jumped to cycle highs. The market will likely focus more on the US CPI
report coming out the following day, although a hot PPI might trigger some
defensive positioning into the CPI data.

Wednesday

The Australian Wage Price Index Q/Q is
expected at 1.0% vs. 0.9% prior. The Australian labour
market remains pretty tight with high wage growth and persistently high
inflation. Nonetheless, the RBA at the latest
policy decision refrained from turning overly hawkish as the central bank
continues to wait for more information. The market now sees the first rate cut
sometime in Q2 2025 with even some chances of a rate hike this year. High wage
growth without a looser labour market will likely make it hard for the RBA to
reach their target “within a reasonable timeframe”.

The US CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs. 3.5%
prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.4% prior. The Core CPI M/M
is expected at 0.3% vs. 0.4% prior. Given the market’s pricing and general fear
of persistently high inflation, a downside surprise will likely trigger a much
bigger reaction than an upside surprise. Fed
Chair Powell pushed back against rate hikes expectations as he stated that they
would need “persuasive” evidence that their policy isn’t restrictive
enough.

So, if inflation remains high but doesn’t
re-accelerate notably, they will just keep rates higher for longer. The market expects
almost two rate cuts (45 bps) by the end of the year which can easily go back
to one or even zero in case we get another hot inflation report. A soft report
might add one extra cut to the pricing but not much more as the Fed will want
to cut rates at a meeting containing the SEP (barring a quick deterioration in the labour market), which falls in September at the earliest.

The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at
0.4% vs. 0.7% prior, while the ex-Autos M/M figure is seen at 0.2% vs. 1.1%
prior. We got some soft consumer sentiment reports recently which might filter through
lower consumer spending. The retail sales data is notoriously volatile and
given that it will be released at the same time of the CPI report, the market
will likely ignore the release.

The PBoC is expected to keep the MLF rate
unchanged at 2.50%. The data out of China has been mostly positive with
the latest inflation
rates slowly crawling out of deflation. Therefore, the central bank is
likely to keep the policy rates steady for the time being given the lack of
urgency.

Thursday

The Australian Labour Market report is
expected to show 25.3K jobs added in April vs. -6.6k in March with the Unemployment
Rate ticking higher to 3.9% vs. 3.8% prior. The RBA is more focused on
inflation but if the tightness in the labour market continues, especially
with high wage growth, it will make it harder for the central bank to reach its
target “within a reasonable timeframe”.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier
indicator on the state of the labour market. This is because disinflation to
the Fed’s target is more likely with a weakening labour market. A resilient
labour market though could make the achievement of the target more difficult.

Initial
Claims saw the first notable miss last week coming in at 231K vs. 215K
prior, which was the highest since August 2023. Of course, one miss doesn’t make
a trend, but it’s worth to keep an eye on this given the recent miss in the NFP
report and softer consumer sentiment data. This week Initial Claims are
expected at 220K vs. 231K prior, while there is no consensus at the time of
writing for Continuing Claims although the prior release showed an increase to
1785K vs. 1785K expected and 1768K prior.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

I saw this chart today (here) and didn’t believe it so I double checked the Census Bureau and it’s true.

The current projection is for the US population to now peak at just-under 370 million in 2080 but with it reaching 359m in 2040, it’s a really long plateau.

Given the plunge in fertility rates and the hardening of attitudes against immigration and the trend, I’d certainly say that risks are to the downside.

There has been plenty of talk in the market about China’s population peaking but China still has a great deal of rural-to-urban immigration to supplement the productive workforce.

In any case, the US is far more important for the global economy and these changes in population materially affect the long-term prospects of virtually every consumer-facing business, along with real estate values.

It’s an even bigger problem in Europe and many other parts of the world. Changing attitudes about fertility and the number of children people want to have are a real problem for markets.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There could be some fireworks in the oil market at the weekly open.

Iraq’s oil minister made a comment suggesting they won’t agree to any additional cuts at the June 1 OPEC+ meeting.

What’s not clear is if he meant:

1. They will extend the current cuts but won’t cut anymore
2. They won’t curtail production at all, abandoning the current quotas

I would hope we get some clarification before the market open but it doesn’t look good. He was asked by a reporter whether Iraq would agree to extend the current voluntary cuts and he replied:

„Iraq has reduced (output) enough and will not agree to any new cut“

Take that for what it’s worth.

In addition, Iraq has overproduced its quota by a cumulative 602k bpd in Q1 and OPEC said it agreed to compensate over the remainder of the year, but this statement certainly calls that assumption into question.

I’d expect to see some pressure on oil at the open.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

RBC is out with its monthly Canadian consumer spending tracker and the picture is positive, with spending increasing across almost all categories.

Retail sales, excluding motor vehicles, experienced significant growth during the month, largely driven by an uptick in home-related purchases, sporting goods, and clothing. These trends indicate a broader seasonal trend as Canadians prepare for summer, according to the April spending tracker from RBC. The metric is based on the credit card data of Canada’s largest bank.

They noted that spending on the category of home furnishings, renovation materials, and garden supplies saw its first notable increase in a year, while building materials accounted for nearly a third of April’s overall spending increase. Other strength was in hotels and restaurants.

The lone categories that saw decreases were groceries, gasoline, and miscellaneous goods.

Overall, RBC doesn’t think the strength in spending will last:

April RBC consumer spending data marked a stronger start to Q2 than we expected. But one month does not make a trend. We are cautiously optimistic that consumer activity will improve this year- as adjustment to higher rates hits households less hard in 2024. The question is- will consumer optimism prevail into summer? Labour market headwinds have been building with the unemployment rate up one full percentage point from a year ago and layoffs rising in recent months. A ramp up of business insolvencies in Q1 alongside higher household credit delinquency rates add to these headwinds. We continue to expect consumer spending to pick up in the back half of the year once BoC cuts are underway, likely starting in June

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Welcome to your daily ETH analysis and ETH price forecast

📊 Dive into daily insights and plan your trading strategies with precision.

Today’s ETHUSD technical analysis and price forecast – May 11, 2024

• Current Price: $2,905
• Daily High/Low: $2,935.5 / $2,886.4
• Current trend for ETHUSD – bearish as long as ETHUSD is below the previous session’s value are low of $2934

Today’s key price levels and highlights for ETHUSD – May 11, 2024 :

• 📈 The market is still bearish, with the high of the day so far below the middle of the previous daily range.
• 📉 Bulls can regain control only if price goes over yesterday’s VWAP and a tiny bit more – I suggest the line in the sand as $2968… Above that, there is a bullish shift.
• 🔍 Indicators: Daily RSI at 38 (slightly oversold), and still trending down (no sign of a rebound yet).
• Next potential support zones to watch: $2,860-$2,872, the PoC and VAL of 01 May.
• Lower support for ETH if the above does not hold: $2,765

ETHUSD chart of the Day – May 11, 2024:

📊 ALWAYS TRADE ETH and crypto at your own risk only. Visit ForexLive.com daily to get interesting insights for traders and investors.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

For the y/y data:

CPI +0.3%

• continuing to claw its way out of deflation
• this is the third consecutive month of above zero CPI y/y
• expected +0.2%, prior +0.1%

PPI -2.5%

• still in deep deflation, as it has been since October of 2022
• expected -2.3%, prior -2.8%

The slight lift for the CPI is good news in China and should be a positive for China markets, and China proxy trades, such as AUD, at the margin.

Stay tuned, its an active week coming from China with the People’s Bank of China’s medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate decision due on Wednesday. No change to the rate is expected. If we do see cuts from the PBOC, the first is likely to be to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). Actual cuts to lending rates would widen the interest rate differential with the rest of the world (cough … USA) and would further pressure the yuan. In the months to come the PBOC may have no choice but to cut rates if the economy continues to only stumble along though. There are ‚green shoots‘ showing (last week’s trade data was a welcome improvement), but they are sporadic and the debt-ridden property sector remains a huge drag.

This screenshot, from our Economic Calendar, is of y/y CPI. The CPI scale is on the righ- hand side and its a wee bit confusing, but I’ve put a box around the zero point to make it a little easier to see:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.