Breaking news! Pelosi is back in the game 🏀

• Verteran political player, Nancy Pelosi, 83, is lacing up her political sneakers for another run in Congress.
• A surprise? Not really. She’s been at it since 1987!

Why stock market junkies should care:

• 📌 Political stability often means $$$ for the market.
• 📌 Pelosi = Pro-Democrat. A stronger Democrat grip could mean predictable policy moves.

Heads up, investors!

• Good vibes 🚀: Think infrastructure, green energy, tech investments. If Pelosi pushes, these sectors might dance!
• Trade winds 🌬️: Better international relations under Pelosi might just give multinational stocks a wind in their sails.

But…

• Small bumps on the road 🚧: If there’s a corporate tax hike or policies that seem anti-business, prepare for a wee bit of market seasickness.

Age is just a number, or is it really?

• Pelosi isn’t alone; there are other vintage legends like McConnell and Feinstein still making waves. Resilience is trending this season!

Final Thoughts:
While Washington’s dance might seem far from Wall Street’s tune, trust us, they’re doing the tango together. Investors, keep that playlist updated and enjoy the beats!

Happy trading! And remember, the market is as unpredictable as our next political headline at ForexLive.com. Be sure to stay tuned.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• higher services prices (prices of air tickets, tourism and accommodation rose over the summer holiday season) dragged CPI up from its negative return in the previous month
• neverthelss CPI came in lower than the surveyed consensus of expectations from economists
• food prices fell 1.7% y/y in the month, the same as in July
• nonfood prices +0.5% y/y

China’s core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices, it jumped 0.8% y/y in August

• prior also +0.8% y/y in July

These numbers, while they overall differ from the consensus are still not much of a surprise. Officially reported inflation numbers are not high and not a concern for the People’s Bank of China. If the Bank wishes to ease policy further inflation rates won’t stand in the way.

The next MLF is due on the 15th, the LPR setting follows on the 20th.

—

The PBOC’s MLF rate is a benchmark interest rate that banks in China can use to borrow funds from the People’s Bank of China for a period of 6 months to 1 year, medium-term liquidity to commercial banks.

The rate is typically announced on the 15th of each month.

The interest rate on the MLF loans is typically higher than the benchmark lending rate (more on these below), which encourages banks to use the facility only when they face a shortage of funds.

MLF loans are secured by collateral, which can be a wide range of assets including bonds, stocks, and other financial instruments. The collateral ensures that the PBOC can recover the funds if the borrower defaults on the loan.

The MLF rate sets the scene for the monthly Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting.

Current LPR rates are:

• 3.45% for the one year
• 4.20% for the five year

The PBOC’s Loan Prime Rate (LPR)

• It is an interest rate benchmark used in China, set by the People’s Bank of China each month. While set on the 20th, any new LPR takes effect on the first day of the following month.
• The LPR serves as a reference rate for banks when they determine the interest rates for (primarily new) loans issued to their customers.
• Its calculated based on the interest rates that a panel of 18 selected commercial banks in China submit daily to the PBOC.
  • The panel consists of both domestic and foreign banks, with different weights assigned to each bank’s contributions based on their size and importance in the Chinese financial system.
  • The LPR is based on the average rates submitted by these panel banks, with the highest and lowest rates excluded to reduce volatility and manipulation. The remaining rates are then ranked, and the median rate becomes the LPR.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Canada August employment +39.9K vs +15.0K expected
• US July wholesale sales +0.8% vs -0.2% expected
• US July consumer credit outstanding +10.4B vs +16.0B expected
• US household net worth rises to record $154.28 trillion – Fed
• ECB rate hike odds rise to 38% as talk of a hawkish push continues
• Fed’s Barr says ‚a long way‘ from a central bank digital currency
• Manheim August used vehicle index +0.2% m/m
• Baker Hughes US oil rig count 513 vs 512 prior

Markets:

• Gold flat at $1918
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.26%
• WTI crude oil down 48-cents to $87.35
• S&P 500 up 0.2%
• CAD leads, JPY lags

The euro ends the day flat but it certainly wasn’t quiet as some hawkish ECB sources reports ahead of next week’s meeting, along with some lumpy flows led to a sharp rise to 1.0740 from 1.0700. However that was countered by a selloff in Treasuries later and the move fully retraced as USD steadily after Europe dropped off.

Earlier, the yuan fell to a 10-month low and that may have been behind some of the USD buying. The idea is that China may let the yuan go to boost manufacturing, knocking out one source of USD selling.

USD/JPY steadily rose throughout the day, hitting a session high of 147.86 late on rising yields. That was right in line with the highs of the past two days so there’s some resistance forming ahead of 148.00.

Cable tried to make a move above 1.2500 but was quickly beaten back down and finished 40 pips below the figure.

The biggest headline of the day came from Canada, which posted an upside surprise in the jobs department. CAD had fallen to the lowest since March yesterday but came back strongly on the headline in a 50 pip move. Later some of that was pared as the dollar strengthened broadly but the loonie still managed to hang onto some gains.

The pop in CAD initially spread to AUD and NZD in a sign of a thin market but those moves later reversed and both slumped in NY trade.

The Fed blackout starts at midnight so that takes away one source of uncertainty next week but the ECB decision is building up to be a big one. I don’t think anyone in Frankfurt knows how it’s going to go.

Greg will be back late next week; have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes:

• S&P 500 +0.1%
• Nasdaq Comp +0.1%
• Russell 2000 -0.3%
• DJIA +0.2%
• Toronto TSX Comp -0.3%

This week was a dud. Summer isn’t over yet.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of TSLA are down 1.3% after earlier rising while shares of NVDA and Boeing are also a drag.

In any case, the range today is narrow and it’s an inside week. Sometimes you get fireworks in the first week of September but not always.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +17.85B (revised to +14.02B)

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Dollar mostly little changed so far today
• Stocks erase early gains as risk mood stumbles once again
• Yuan misery to end the week for China
• Germany August final CPI +6.1% vs +6.1% y/y prelim
• Another report highlighting China’s ban on iPhones to local governments, state-owned firms
• China vice premier Zhang Guoqing to visit Russia next week
• Japan PM Kishida reportedly will reshuffle Cabinet on 13 September

Markets:

• NZD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
• US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.252%
• Gold up 0.2% to $1,923.44
• WTI crude up 0.7% to $87.48
• Bitcoin down 0.6% to $25,840

It was a quieter session as traders are not left with much to work with towards the end of the week.

There wasn’t any major data in Europe and so, there was only the risk mood and bond market musings to really trigger any broader moves. We saw yields just holding slightly lower after yesterday’s bid, so that didn’t provide much of an impact with the dollar keeping steadier across the board.

But we at least did see equities relinquish their early gains, falling lower as the selloff this week stays the course. European indices opened with slight gains but saw their fortunes turn around and are now down around 0.2% to 0.4% on the day.

The euro, yen, and pound were all little changed against the dollar with EUR/USD keeping near the 1.0700 mark amid large option expiries. USD/JPY stuck around 147.30-40 levels mostly after recovering from its drop in Asia trading.

Instead, it was the antipodeans that are seeing some decent moves at least with AUD/USD up 0.3% to near 0.6400 and NZD/USD up 0.5% to just above 0.5900. The gains aren’t anything to shout about considering the drop in both pairs this week but it is a bit of a relief despite a significantly weaker Chinese yuan today – which fell to its lowest levels since 2007/08.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
  expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency
  and kept all the options on the table.
• Inflation measures
  since then showed further disinflation.
• The labour market
  displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid.
• Overall, the economic data started to surprise to
  the downside lately.
• This week the ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims
  surprised to the upside.
• The Fed members are leaning more towards a pause in
  September rather than another rate hike.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike at the
  September meeting, but there’s now a 50/50 chance of a hike in November.

New Zealand:

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged at the
  last meeting while stating that it will remain at the restrictive level for the
  foreseeable future to ensure that inflation comes down back to target.
• The recent New Zealand inflation and employment data surprised to the upside but
  the PMIs are in contraction with the Services PMI recently plunging into contraction.
• The wage growth has also missed
  expectations and it’s something that the central banks are watching closely for
  second round effects.
• The New Zealand Retail Sales beat expectations although remains
  deeply negative.
• The RBNZ is expected to keep the
  cash rate steady at the next meeting.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the bearish
momentum in the NZDUSD pair seems to be waning as the pair started to chop
around below the 0.5987 level. The bearish bias though remains intact as the
price has not yet broken the most recent lower high around the 0.60 handle and
the moving averages are
crossed to the downside.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we continue to
have a massive divergence with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the target should be the 0.6117 level, but the price
should first take out the 0.60 handle before rallying all the way up to the
0.6117 level.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
recently took out the resistance around
the 0.5895 level. We might see the buyers piling in here with a defined risk
below the level to target the 0.5930 resistance first, and eventually the 0.60
handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back
below the 0.5895 level to invalidate the bullish setup and position for another
fall into the lows targeting a break lower.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

VEXT is now available on MEXC, a highly established global
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Users are invited to visit MEXC via
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This pivotal moment offers users the chance to play an
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About Veloce Media Group

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Headquartered in London, the Veloce brand comprises an
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As the world’s largest digital racing media network, Veloce
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Veloce is partnered with a number of high-profile teams
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Users should stay tuned for some exciting updates in the
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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The move here is largely to try and bolster support before next year’s voting, in which Kishida looks likely to face strong opposition to his position as prime minister. This is also seen as a move to try and ensure public confidence amid doubts creeping in about the government’s handling of the economy, so let’s see what he has planned.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.