• US November core PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.9% expected
• Canada retail sales for October 0.6% versus 0.7% expected
• Canada’s NDP says they will vote to defeat the Liberal government
• Fed’s Goolsbee: Nice to get inflation number that is better than expected
• Fed’s Williams: Inflation data since Sept has been ‚a touch higher‘
• Fed’s Hammack: Rate cut was a ‚close call‘ and she favored holding policy steady
• EU consumer confidence flesh for December -14.5 versus -13.7 last month
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment final 74.0 versus 74.0 preliminary
• Fed vice chair for supervision is worried that Trump will try to remove him – report
• Dallas Fed trimmed mean November PCE price index +1.8% vs +2.9%
• House speaker Johnson: We have a unified agreement among Republicans
• Canada October budget balance C$-1.49 billion vs previous C$-3.17 billion
• RBC card spending data shows softer Canadian spending ahead of today’s retail sales report
• Fed’s Daly: The recalibration phase is now over

Markets:

• S&P 500 up 1.1%
• WTI crude up 15-cents to $69.53
• US 10-year yields down 4.2 bps to 4.52%
• Gold up $30 to $2623
• JPY leads, USD lags

The mood shifted sharply on Friday as stocks looked set for another rout in the pre-market only to reverse higher. The FX market followed a similar pattern, though the moves were less-dramatic. That meant US dollar selling after the dollar hit some of the best levels of the year early in Asia.

Two things turned markets: The PCE report and progress on avoiding a government shutdown.

On Wednesday, the Fed comments indicated a big shift towards worries about inflation but the PCE report brought a dose of reality back to the debate as the numbers were lower than expected and not at levels so worrisome that the Fed would need to contemplate hiking.

Comments from Goolsbee and Williams underscored that, assuring markets that the path for rates is still lower and that the only real debate is the pace of cuts.

Some of the machinations around the debt ceiling debate also underscored a Trump/Musk recalibration around fiscal hawkishness. It’s not yet clear how it will shake down so keep a close eye over the weekend. The real thing to watch is how the new administration prioritizes fiscal consolidation relative to corporate tax cuts. The vast majority of the market thinks the top priority is the stock market but that could be a miscalculation.

In terms of market moves, USD/JPY fell hard on some verbal intervention from Tokyo and it continued to drift lower in the US as Treasury yields ticked lower.

The euro bounced impressively after touching 1.0344 while the Australian and Canadian dollars rebounded from the worst levels of the year. The pound touched below the November lows in Asia the bounced to 1.2600 before fading 25 pips below the figure.

I would expect the first reaction on Monday to center around the government shutdown response but we’re deep into the holiday season now so the temperature might fall.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major U.S. stock indices ended the day with gains of 1% or more for all three major benchmarks, but they closed lower for the week. Here’s a detailed snapshot:

Closing Levels (Daily Gains):

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: rose 498.82 points (+1.18%) to close at 42,841.06.

• S&P 500 Index: rose 63.79 points (+1.09%) to close at 5,930.87.

• NASDAQ Composite: rose 199.83 points (+1.03%) to close at 19,572.60.

• Russell 2000 (Small-Cap Index): rose 20.86 points (+0.94%) to close at 2,242.36.

Weekly Performance:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: fell -2.25%.

• S&P 500 Index: fell -1.90%.

• NASDAQ Composite: fell -1.78%.

• Russell 2000 Index: fell -4.45%.

Technical Insights for the NASDAQ Composite:
On the hourly chart, the NASDAQ index tumbled below its 200-hour moving average (19,428.78) and an upward-sloping trendline during the trading day. However, it failed to sustain the downward momentum and rebounded to close between its 200-hour moving average and its 100-hour moving average (19,803.75).

Outlook for Next Week:

• Trading above the 100-hour moving average would indicate a bullish short-term bias.

• Trading below the 200-hour moving average would signal a bearish short-term bias.

The interaction with these key moving averages will be critical in determining the direction of the NASDAQ Composite in the coming days.

Technical Insights for the S&P Composite:
On the hourly chart, the S&P index fell below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages and 6040.97 and 6001.31. That tilted the bias more to the downside. The low price for the week did extend below a swing area between 5853.00 and 5878.47, but the price quickly snapped back in trading today. The selllers had their shot and they failed.

Going into next week, the target resistance on the topside would be the moving averages. The swing area on the downside will be supported

Outlook for Next Week:

• Trading above the 200- hour MA and 100-hour moving average (green and blue lines) would indicate a bullish short-term bias.

• Trading swing area support would signal a bearish short-term bias.

The interaction with these key moving averages will be critical in determining the direction of the NASDAQ Composite in the coming days.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed vice chair for supervision Michael Barr is worried. He was appointed in 2022 for a term that lasts until 2032 but is worried that Trump may try to remove him.

Reuters reports that he sought advice from law firm Arnold & Porter.

I’m doubt this is meaningful for markets but it does speak to real worries around Trump and the Fed. It also speaks to how strongly he might feel (or his donors might feel) about bank regulation.

Barr, like Quarles before him, rarely weighs in on monetary policy and almost always focuses on regulation and supervision of banks.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +2.9%

These are one-month annualized numbers so small changes led to swings like this. That said, the latest number is one-month running at a sub-2% pace, 11 more to go.

• 6-month annualized: 2.2% vs 2.3% prior
• 12-month: 2.7% unchanged

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Johnson says there will be no government shutdown

Talk is cheap, let’s get the vote.

Update: It sounds like this won’t be split into three parts but will just be the bill that failed yesterday but without an extension to the debt limit.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Global multi-asset leader in online trading HF Markets
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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

FBS, a leading global broker, unveils its latest analysis of cryptocurrency market trends for 2024 and predictions for 2025. FBS analysts explore how pivotal events have shaped the digital finance landscape and identify emerging opportunities for the coming year.

A Closer Look at 2024

According to FBS analysts, 2024 was shaped by transformative events that drove significant growth in the crypto market. Bitcoin led the charge, gaining over 146% following its halving event. Ethereum also thrived as institutional investments surged after ETF approvals, underscoring its expanding role in the global financial system.

U.S. cryptocurrency policies under Donald Trump’s administration were another major factor in 2024’s growth. Initiatives such as exploring Bitcoin for debt reduction bolstered market sentiment, pushing Bitcoin past the $100,000 milestone and driving broader adoption.

The year also saw the rapid rise of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), a trend highlighted by FBS analysts as pivotal in revolutionizing traditional asset management. By making illiquid assets more accessible, tokenization is redefining investment landscapes across industries such as real estate and commodities.

2025: What Lies Ahead?

FBS analysts forecast that Bitcoin’s momentum will continue, with a potential price target of $250,000 by year-end. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is expected to surpass $3.4 trillion, supported by the rapid rise of altcoins and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).

Ethereum’s position is set to strengthen further, with FBS anticipating new ETF approvals for altcoins like Solana and XRP. The expansion of tokenization initiatives and advances in blockchain infrastructure will likely drive new waves of institutional and retail participation.

FBS remains committed to equipping traders with actionable insights, advanced tools, and seamless platforms to navigate the dynamic market confidently.

Users can find the full analysis and in-depth insights here.

Disclaimer: This material does not constitute a call to trade, trading advice, or recommendation and is intended for informational purposes only.

About FBS

FBS is a global brand that unites several independent brokerage companies under the licenses of FSC (Belize), CySEC (Cyprus), and ASIC (Australia). With 15 years of experience and over 90 international awards, FBS is steadily developing as one of the market’s most trusted brokers. Today, FBS serves over 27,000,000 traders and more than 700 000 partners around the globe.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The monthly retail sales balance only saw a marginal improvement in December but continues to keep in negative territory. Similarly, the measure of expected retail sales for January remains negative at -11 but at least is an improvement to -29 in the month before. CBI notes that:

„Retailers have endured a gloomy festive period. Looking ahead, retailers expect sales to fall again in January while wholesalers and motor traders are braced for sharper sales declines.“

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• But what we see now is inflation momentum more in the direction of being around 2%

In other words, he’s saying the ECB need not be restrictive anymore considering the latest inflation developments. Sure, sure. I’m certain they’re not speeding up the narrative because the economy is slowing down or whatever. Pfft. /s

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

easyMarkets,
a pioneer in the CFD brokerage industry, and Real Madrid C.F., the record
holders of UEFA Champions League and LaLiga titles, have announced the renewal
of their fruitful partnership at an event attended by Nikos Antoniades, CEO of
easyMarkets, and Emilio Butragueño, Director of Institutional Relations at Real
Madrid.

The renewal of the partnership reinforces the bonds between
these two powerhouses and reflects the shared ambition and winning mindset both
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partnership aims to bring even more exclusive and unique experiences to clients
in covered regions providing new initiatives and opportunities that enhance
their engagement with both Real Madrid and easyMarkets.

Real Madrid C.F., the Best Club of the twentieth century
-title awarded by FIFA-, has one of the largest fanbases in the world. Real
Madrid C.F. is an example of leadership beyond the sports industry and has in
the commitment to excellence one of its signs of identity, being an essential
part of the club since its foundation. The club is proud to continue its
partnership with a global-leading brand in its industry as easyMarkets, an
excellent partner with great reputation.

Mr. Nikos Antoniades, CEO of easyMarkets, said, ‘Our
partnership thus far has been very successful for both our organizations. Real
Madrid’s long-standing, victorious reputation perfectly complements
easyMarkets, a company that has been active in the CFD brokerage industry for
more than 20 years. We eagerly look forward to extending our successful
collaboration and are excited about what this strengthened bond will
bring.’

‘We are thrilled to continue as the Official Trading Partner
for a top-tier titan in the world’s most popular sport, Real Madrid C.F.. With
an established history of recognized excellence, Real Madrid C.F. embodies the
winning mindset that easyMarkets instils in the trading world,’ stated Mr.
Garen Meserlian, Chief Marketing Officer. Leveraging our global reach across
100+ countries, we aim to enhance our pursuit of trading excellence, reinforced
by the shared spirit and rigor that define our two brands.’

Alongside the renewal of this sponsorship, easyMarkets has
also obtained the FSCA license, further expanding the company’s regulatory
portfolio (CySEC, ASIC, FSA and FSC). This achievement reflects easyMarkets
continued commitment to providing additional value to clients and enhancing
their overall trading experience.

For more
information about the renewal of our partnership, please click here.

ABOUT easyMarkets

easyMarkets, founded in 2001, is an award-winning global
broker. One of the first to offer an online experience with innovative risk
management tools, including free guaranteed stop loss, easyTrade, Freeze Rate,
and dealCancellation, easyMarkets provides its sizeable clientele with a
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tradeable instruments, tight fixed spreads, and 24/5 dedicated support to
traders around the world, easyMarkets continues to revolutionize the trading sector
by providing unparalleled security and safeguards for client funds and
consistently prioritizing client commitment and satisfaction.

ABOUT REAL MADRID C.F.

Real Madrid C.F. is a sport entity with 122 years of
history. It is the club with the most European Cups of both football (15) and
basketball (11) and was awarded by FIFA as the Best Club of the twentieth
century. Real Madrid has millions of fans in all corners of the world, with
more than 590 million followers on social networks. Real Madrid is the most
valuable football brand in the world for Brand Finance for the third year in a
row and the highest earning football club in the world for the 22-23 season (Deloitte’s
Football Money League). More information about Real Madrid C.F. is available at
www.realmadrid.com, the most visited soccer club website for the seventh
consecutive year.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.