Ethereum
keeps on falling and making new lows as the outlook is turning more and more
bearish given the headwinds from global growth and tight monetary policies. All
the positive news eventually gets faded, which is another sign that the big
picture trend remains bearish. Amid this high uncertainty, the technicals can
help with risk management and short-term directional plays.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Ethereum sold
off again but bounced on the previous low around the 1545 level. We can see
that the sellers are leaning on the red 21 moving average, and we
will likely find them again around the 1600 level. A break below the 1545 low
would take the price into the next support at 1400.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the bounce
from the low got rejected at the resistance zone around the 1600 level. This is
where the sellers are piling in with a defined risk above the resistance to
target a break below the low and the 1400 support. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and extend the
rally into the 1681 resistance.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
short term market structure is bullish as the price has been printing higher
highs and higher lows. The last higher low is around the 1575 level, so a break
below that level would switch the bullish trend into a bearish one and lead to
more selling pressure.

Upcoming Events

This week we have many important events. Today is the US
CPI Day, which is expected to show an increase in headline inflation due to
higher energy prices but further disinflation in the core measure. Tomorrow, we
will see the latest US Jobless Claims, PPI and Retail Sales data. Finally on
Friday, we get the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Strong
data is likely to tip the market expectations on the more hawkish side and
support the USD, ultimately weighing on Ethereum. On the other hand, weak
readings should have the opposite effect, unless they are very bad, in which
case the recession fears are likely to send Ethereum lower anyway.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• What’s priced in for the Fed outlook ahead of the CPI data today?
• UK July monthly GDP -0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expected
• Eurozone July industrial production -1.1% vs -0.7% m/m expected
• German government to downgrade GDP forecast for the year, sees contraction of 0.3%
• German economy ministry says current indicators point to weak Q3
• PBOC says will support prices to rise moderately
• China says it has not issued a ban on purchase and/or use of iPhones
• Japan’s Matsuno confirms he will remain as chief Cabinet secretary after the reshuffle
• Putin does not rule out military cooperation with North Korea amid Kim Jong Un’s visit

Markets:

• NZD leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 4.4 bps to 4.308%
• Gold down 0.1% to $1,911.24
• WTI crude up 0.6% to $89.41
• Bitcoin up 0.5% to $26,191

It was a slow session as markets are caught in a bind waiting on the US CPI data to come later.

The dollar was steadier throughout, holding light gains against the major currencies bloc mostly. The ranges for the day are still leaving a lot to be desired though, as traders are awaiting the inflation numbers before firming up any convictions.

GBP/USD did see a slight drop from 1.2485 to a low of 1.2441 during the session, after the UK economy contracted by more-than-expected in July. But price is seen bouncing back to 1.2470 now as we await the main event later today.

Higher bond yields are also something to be wary about, with both European and US bond yields rising. The former is helped by escalating odds of a ECB rate hike for tomorrow while the latter is seeing 10-year yields seeking a potential breakout above 4.30% ahead of the CPI data.

Meanwhile, stocks remain more tepid with European indices posting losses in following the drop in US equities yesterday.

It’s now all about the US CPI data, so let’s see what that has to offer and how it will shape things up before more US data and the ECB decision tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -2.9%
• Market index 182.2 vs 183.6 prior
• Purchase index 143.7 vs 141.9 prior
• Refinance index 367.0 vs 388.1 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.27% vs 7.21% prior

Overall mortgage applications fell in the past week amid mixed activity. Purchases were up last week but the drop in refinancing activity more than made up for that, with the index falling to its lowest level since December last year:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This compares with the growth of 0.4% predicted at the end of April, with the government reportedly now expecting the economy to shrink in Q3 and expand only slightly in Q4 this year. Overall, the government is said to anticipate a contraction of 0.3% for the year.

These forecasts are typically slow to react to the underlying trend but it is fair to say that recession signals are beeping all over the place for Germany. So, ECB.. are ya winning, son?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin
remains rangebound on a key support level as the outlook is turning more and
more bearish given the headwinds from global growth and tight monetary
policies. All the positive news eventually gets faded, which is another sign
that the big picture trend remains bearish. Amid this high uncertainty, the
technicals can help with risk management and short-term directional plays.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin
recently sold off into the key 25231 support where it
bounced soon after. The price then rallied into the red 21 moving average where it
found strong sellers. The bias remains bearish as the price keeps on printing
lower lows into the support, which should eventually lead to a breakout. If the
price breaks above the 21 moving average though, we might see a rally back into
the 28400 resistance, where the sellers will be waiting to sell at even better
prices.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we are
currently trading withing a range between the 25231 support and the 26600
resistance. The best strategy in such instances is to just sit tight and wait
for a breakout, but one can also “play the range” by buying at support and
selling at resistance. A break to the upside should take Bitcoin into the 28400
resistance, while a break to the downside should lead to a selloff into the
21509 support.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a level of interest at 26024. In the short term, we might see a rally into
the 26600 resistance in the price breaks above it, but the sellers are likely
to pile in here with a defined risk above it to target the 25231 support.

Upcoming Events

This week we have many important events. Today is the US
CPI Day, which is expected to show an increase in headline inflation due to
higher energy prices but further disinflation in the core measure. Tomorrow, we
will see the latest US Jobless Claims, PPI and Retail Sales data. Finally on
Friday, we get the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Strong
data is likely to tip the market expectations on the more hawkish side and
support the USD, ultimately weighing on Bitcoin. On the other hand, weak
readings should have the opposite effect, unless they are very bad, in which
case the recession fears are likely to send Bitcoin lower anyway.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
  expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency
  and kept all the options on the table.
• Inflation measures
  since then showed further disinflation.
• The labour market
  displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid.
• Overall, the economic data started to surprise to
  the downside lately.
• Last week the ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims
  surprised to the upside.
• The Fed members are leaning more towards a pause in
  September.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike at the September
  meeting, but there’s now a 50/50 chance of a hike in November.

New Zealand:

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged at the
  last meeting while stating that it will remain at the restrictive level for the
  foreseeable future to ensure that inflation comes down back to target.
• The recent New Zealand inflation and employment data surprised to the upside but
  the PMIs are in contraction with the Services PMI recently plunging into contraction.
• The wage growth has also missed
  expectations and it’s something that the central banks are watching closely for
  second round effects.
• The New Zealand Retail Sales beat expectations although the data
  remains deeply negative.
• The RBNZ is expected to keep the
  cash rate steady at the next meeting.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the recent
bounce in the NZDUSD pair is struggling at the red 21 moving average where
the sellers are likely to be stepping in to position for further downside. The
bearish momentum seems to be waning and we might see a bigger correction into
the 0.60 handle. If the US data comes out much stronger than expected though,
the pair should keep on depreciating.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a divergence with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback should be the 0.60 resistance, but the
buyers will need to break above the 0.5930 level to start targeting the 0.60
handle. In fact, we can expect the buyers to pile in around the 0.59 handle
where we have also the confluence with the
red 21 moving average. If the price breaks through the support though, the
sellers are likely to extend the drop into the 0.5860 low.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see clear
support and resistance levels. The buyers should buy the supports, while the
sellers should sell the resistances. The current price action into the 0.5900
support seems to be forming a bullish flag
pattern, so that will also be something to watch.

Upcoming Events

This week we have many important events beginning with
the US CPI tomorrow, which is expected to show an increase in headline
inflation but further disinflation in the core measure. On Thursday, we will
see the US Jobless Claims, PPI and Retail Sales data. Finally on Friday, we get
the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Japan senior lawmaker says took Ueda’s remarks to mean BOJ will continue with easing
• BOE’s Breeden: The risks to inflation around August forecast are to the upside
• UK August payrolls change -1k vs 97k prior
• Germany September ZEW survey current conditions -79.4 vs -75.0 expected
• Germany August wholesale price index +0.2% vs -0.2% m/m prior
• Spain August final CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelim
• US August NFIB small business optimism index 91.3 vs 91.9 prior
• Bitcoin jumps as BOE policymaker says better to regulate crypto under financial services

Markets:

• USD leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.290%
• Gold down 0.5% to $1,911.96
• WTI crude up 0.7% to $87.88
• Bitcoin up 3.8% to $26,034

It was a relatively slow and quieter session in European trading today, after all the fuss surrounding the surge in the Japanese yen and bond yields yesterday.

The dollar, which saw a drop yesterday, is seen advancing on the day as we see USD/JPY also move back towards the 147.00 mark. EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.0710 while GBP/USD is down 0.4% to 1.2460, following a less than ideal UK jobs report for the BOE.

In the equities space, risk tones were calmer earlier but are seen retreating slightly now with US futures moving lower. That is keeping European indices in check after slight gains at the open, with the bond market looking little changed on the day.

All in all, it was a bit more of a placeholder session, as the countdown to the US CPI report tomorrow continues.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

To be fair though, there were a couple of light bids leading up to the sudden jump if you zoom in to the minute-chart. But the big spike came right on the dot as BOE policymaker Breeden said that it would be better to regulate cryptocurrencies under the financial services perimeter rather than under gambling.

After what looked like a breakdown in the charts yesterday, dip buyers are certainly making a stand now in Bitcoin as we see price erase the losses from the day before and then some. The $25,000 mark appears to be where the line is being drawn for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
  expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency
  and kept all the options on the table.
• Inflation measures
  since then showed further disinflation.
• The labour market
  displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid.
• Overall, the economic data started to surprise to
  the downside lately.
• Last week the ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims
  surprised to the upside.
• The Fed members are leaning more towards a pause in
  September.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike at the
  September meeting, but there’s now a 50/50 chance of a hike in November.

Australia:

• The
  RBA kept its cash rate unchanged as widely expected as they are
  seeing signs that the economy is indeed slowing and that will help to return
  inflation back to target.
• The
  data is supporting the RBA’s stance as the Australian jobs, wages and inflation data all missed expectations
  lately.
• The
  Australian PMIs also missed expectations remaining
  in contraction.
• RBA
  Governor Lowe in his speech reaffirmed that if inflation remains sticky, they
  will have to tighten more.
• The
  market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting as well.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD seems to
be stuck in a range between the 0.6370 support and the
0.6500 resistance. The recent bounce is getting rejected by the red 21 moving average as the
sellers are stepping in here to position for further downside. A break above
the moving average should lead to a rally into the 0.65 resistance.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we had a divergence with the
MACD recently
which is usually a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. The target of the pullback should be the 0.66 handle but if the US
data comes out much stronger than expected, then the pair should keep on
dropping and make new lower lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have clear levels where the price should react to. A break above the current
resistance around the 0.6440 level should see more buyers piling in to target
the 0.6500 resistance. Another option for the buyers with an even better risk
to reward ratio would be to wait for the price to pull back into the 0.6410
support and position for a rally into the 0.65 resistance with a defined risk
just below the level.

The sellers, on the other hand, are likely
to step in at the 0.6440 resistance with a defined risk above the level to
position for a break below the 0.6410 support and eventually a break below the
0.6370 level.

Upcoming Events

This week we have many important events beginning with
the US CPI tomorrow, which is expected to show an increase in headline
inflation but further disinflation in the core measure. On Thursday, we will
see the latest Australian Jobs report followed by US Jobless Claims, PPI and
Retail Sales data. Finally on Friday, we get the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The reading is once again below the 49-year average of 98, with this being the 20th month in a row at that. NFIB does note that Q3 economic conditions are looking good with September „needing to be an exceptionally bad month to
negate the solid economic data that came out of July and August“.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.