Closing changes:
This week was a dud. Summer isn’t over yet.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Shares of TSLA are down 1.3% after earlier rising while shares of NVDA and Boeing are also a drag.
In any case, the range today is narrow and it’s an inside week. Sometimes you get fireworks in the first week of September but not always.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Markets:
It was a quieter session as traders are not left with much to work with towards the end of the week.
There wasn’t any major data in Europe and so, there was only the risk mood and bond market musings to really trigger any broader moves. We saw yields just holding slightly lower after yesterday’s bid, so that didn’t provide much of an impact with the dollar keeping steadier across the board.
But we at least did see equities relinquish their early gains, falling lower as the selloff this week stays the course. European indices opened with slight gains but saw their fortunes turn around and are now down around 0.2% to 0.4% on the day.
The euro, yen, and pound were all little changed against the dollar with EUR/USD keeping near the 1.0700 mark amid large option expiries. USD/JPY stuck around 147.30-40 levels mostly after recovering from its drop in Asia trading.
Instead, it was the antipodeans that are seeing some decent moves at least with AUD/USD up 0.3% to near 0.6400 and NZD/USD up 0.5% to just above 0.5900. The gains aren’t anything to shout about considering the drop in both pairs this week but it is a bit of a relief despite a significantly weaker Chinese yuan today – which fell to its lowest levels since 2007/08.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
US:
New Zealand:
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the bearish
momentum in the NZDUSD pair seems to be waning as the pair started to chop
around below the 0.5987 level. The bearish bias though remains intact as the
price has not yet broken the most recent lower high around the 0.60 handle and
the moving averages are
crossed to the downside.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we continue to
have a massive divergence with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the target should be the 0.6117 level, but the price
should first take out the 0.60 handle before rallying all the way up to the
0.6117 level.
NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
recently took out the resistance around
the 0.5895 level. We might see the buyers piling in here with a defined risk
below the level to target the 0.5930 resistance first, and eventually the 0.60
handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back
below the 0.5895 level to invalidate the bullish setup and position for another
fall into the lows targeting a break lower.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
The move here is largely to try and bolster support before next year’s voting, in which Kishida looks likely to face strong opposition to his position as prime minister. This is also seen as a move to try and ensure public confidence amid doubts creeping in about the government’s handling of the economy, so let’s see what he has planned.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The greenback is pretty much flat against the euro, yen, and pound while keeping little changed against the franc and loonie. It is only the aussie and kiwi which are slightly higher in trading today but the gains there aren’t anything too significant. AUD/USD is still down 0.8% on the week and NZD/USD is down 0.5% on the week so far.
EUR/USD is stuck around 1.0700 with large option expiries at the figure level also in play. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is not really moving too much after recovering from its earlier fall in Asia. 10-year Treasury yields are down 1.8 bps to 4.244%, so that is at least keeping any upside moves at bay for now.
In the equities space, we are seeing a softer mood overall as noted here. That is something to watch out for especially for risk currencies as a further softening in sentiment could eventually spill over and drag the aussie and kiwi back lower.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Yesterday,
the US ISM Services PMI beat
expectations by a big margin and caused a selloff in the Nasdaq Composite. The
market pricing for future interest rates expectations turned a little bit more
hawkish with basically a 50/50 chance of another hike in November and less
rates cuts in 2024. Last week we got a “bad news is good news” type of
reaction, while yesterday it was the complete opposite as “good news was bad
news”. It looks like the market is still trading on interest rates
expectations.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite tested the broken trendline and fell
into the previous resistance turned support where we
have also the confluence with the
red 21 moving average. We
should get a bounce here, but a lot will depend on the data going forward.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the
strong support zone
where we can find many confluences. In fact, there’s the daily and the 4-hour
red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where the buyers should pile in with a defined risk below the support
to target another higher high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a
selloff into the 13174 support.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
had a divergence with
the MACD around
the trendline which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we are still in the pullback territory,
but if the price continues lower and breaks through the support and the upward
trendline, then we will have a confirmation of a reversal and the sellers will
regain control.
Upcoming
Events
Today we will have the last important US economic
data for this week: the US Jobless Claims report. We saw just yesterday that
the market doesn’t like strong US data as that raises the chances that the Fed
might need to do more and eventually lead to a worse recession. So, if we get
good data, we should see more weakness in the Nasdaq Composite, while bad data
should provide a relief rally. At some point though, the market should start to
worry about bad data as well.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
Markets:
There weren’t any major headlines during the session and market moves were relatively contained for the most part.
The dollar continues to hold steadier across the board, keeping a slight advance against the euro and pound. EUR/USD eased from 1.0720 to 1.0705, though still sitting in a 25 pips range on the day. Meanwhile, GBP/USD fell from 1.2500 to 1.2450 as the pound fallout continues – not helped by softer UK business inflation expectations.
USD/JPY is keeping lower though, down 0.2% at around 147.30 currently, as the bond selling this week takes a slight breather in European trading.
In the equities space, tech shares are the major laggards with Nasdaq futures trailing by 0.7% and that is pinning down S&P 500 futures by 0.4%. Dow futures are down 0.1% while European indices are a bit more mixed now after a slightly softer open. There’s still some hints of nervousness as we await further developments in the bond market.
Coming up later, there is the US weekly jobless claims but if not, do keep an eye on Treasuries to see if the selling will return and impact broader markets once again.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.