• Having returned to low inflation, Canada is in a better place to deal with new economic shocks
• There’s a fair amount of uncertainty on how quickly Canada’s new immigration curbs kick in, BOC will be watching
• Effect of changes in assumptions about population growth will have a bigger impact on our GDP forecast that our inflation forecast
• If population growth slows faster than assumed, headline GDP will be lower than assumed

The Canadian government announced 20% lower immigration targets yesterday.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

With the drop today, gold is down 0.1% on the week and looks to end its latest weekly winning streak at two. There’s still US trading to follow later though but there are a couple of things to note with the latest decline here. On the daily chart, it might not seem like much:

That as price action continues to hold above the $2,700 mark and not really threatening a test of the figure level yet. But when you switch over to the near-term chart, there is a notable development amid the push and pull this week:

The drop today sees price action fall back below its 100-hour moving average (red line). And that puts the near-term bias in gold to being more neutral now. The 200-hour moving average (blue line) now returns to focus as a key near-term support as such. And that level is seen at around $2,707 currently.

With little else happening in broader markets today, some tentative signs of exhaustion in gold is perhaps something to keep an eye out for. As mentioned earlier in the week:

„At this point, it seems to be a case of it (a squeeze) will come when it comes. As stated earlier this month, I’m running out of reasons for one presently.

The case for gold to move higher has been clear and concise since the end of last year. And that has continued well into this year as well, as seen here.

All that being said, this may arguably be the trickiest time period for gold as we approach year-end. The December and January seasonal rush is one that typically benefits gold considerably during the turn of the year. So, if there’s ever a time for profit taking, this may be the stretch to watch out for.

Otherwise, it can be tough to challenge the gold narrative in the next few months.“

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

It looks like the market is
taking some breather after an incredible rally in the US Dollar. This week was
pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The
main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term
Treasury yields.

The yield curve has been
bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and
potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s been a good argument that
the markets have been already positioning for a Trump victory which is expected
to strengthen the higher growth and less rate cuts expectations.

For now, this is the trend
and it’s generally a bad idea to fight such trends without a strong catalyst.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much left for October as the main events will be
in the first weeks of November when we will get the top tier economic reports,
the US elections and the FOMC decision.

On the AUD side, the latest
data has been pretty strong with the Australian labour market report last week beating expectations by a
big margin. Although it didn’t change much in terms of interest rate
expectations, it reinforces the RBA’s hawkish stance.

AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD is bouncing from the key swing level at 0.6622. This is where
the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the level to position for
a rally into the 0.68 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.65 handle
next.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance
level at 0.6660 where we can also find the trendline
for confluence.
If we get a pullback into the resistance, we can expect the sellers to step in
with a defined risk above the level to position for the break below the 0.6622
support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.68 handle.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the several rejections from the
0.6622 support as the sellers have been struggling to break through. There’s
not much more we can add as the sellers will look to short from the trendline
or on a break lower, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking the
resistance to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define
the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

This is more or less what happens when market players don’t get their fix. It’s all about economic data these days and there hasn’t been any ones this week that stood out. The focus turned towards the bond market and rising yields but even that has cooled off in the past few sessions. 10-year Treasury yields are flat today at 4.202% currently. As such, currency traders are not finding much appetite on the day as well.

Dollar pairs are little changed for the most part with just some light extension to the narrow ranges in European morning trade.

USD/JPY is nudging back towards 152.00 after a fall in the handover from Asia, with the 100-hour moving average being defended at around 151.45 at the time. The 200-day moving average at 151.40 is also providing some extra support on the daily chart for now.

Besides that, there’s not much else with most other major currencies keeping more muted. Equities are just a touch higher on the day but as a whole this week are still holding lower. US futures are up by 0.2% though and that might invite some interest from Wall Street to try and salvage something on the week before the weekend break.

In terms of data releases, there is the Canadian retail sales to look out for later. After that, it’ll be a bit of a wait again until we get to the US JOLTS job openings on Tuesday. As for other key risk events, just be mindful of the Japanese elections this weekend.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

It looks like the market is
taking some breather after an incredible rally in the US Dollar. This week was
pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The
main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term
Treasury yields.

The yield curve has been
bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and
potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s been a good argument that
the markets have been already positioning for a Trump victory which is expected
to strengthen the higher growth and less rate cuts expectations.

For now, this is the trend
and it’s generally a bad idea to fight such trends without a strong catalyst.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much left for October as the main events will be
in the first weeks of November when we will get the top tier economic reports,
the US elections and the FOMC decision.

On the CAD side, the BoC
cut interest rates by 50 bps as expected and signalled more rate cuts to
come with the size of the cuts being guided by incoming data. The market sees
an 85% probability of a 25 bps cut in December (15% for a 50 bps cut) and then three
more 25 bps cuts in 2025.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD is testing the key resistance zone around the 1.3860 level. This
is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance
to position for a drop back into the 1.36 support. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets
into new highs.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the momentum got weaker around the key resistance as the price action
formed a rising
wedge right at the resistance. This generally signals a pullback or even a
reversal.

In this case, it gives the
sellers a bit more confidence to target at least a pullback into the 1.3750
level with a break below the bottom trendline
increasing the conviction. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely lean on
the bottom trendline to position for a break above the resistance and the top
trendline.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the rejections around the
resistance. There’s not much else we can add here, but from a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the
bottom trendline where the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 1.3750 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the Canadian retail sales data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

easyMarkets proudly announced its
recognition as the “Leading Broker of the Year” at the prestigious Forex Expo
Dubai 2024. This landmark event, a cornerstone in the global Forex community,
provided easyMarkets with a vibrant platform to connect with enthusiastic traders,
unveil dynamic promotions, and host the legendary football icon Roberto
Carlos.

The recognition as “Leading Broker of
the Year” underscores easyMarkets dedication to delivering top-tier trading
experiences and fostering a dynamic trading environment. The company continues
to empower traders with state-of-the-art tools, unparalleled support, and
innovative opportunities designed to help them thrive in the ever-evolving
financial landscape.

In a highlight of the expo,
easyMarkets announced the highly anticipated xBar Cup competition, igniting
excitement among expo attendees. Set to run until the end of February 2025, the
xBar Cup will showcase the talents of international football freestylers
battling it out with their extraordinary skills. Fans will have the power to
vote, determining the four most impressive finalists who will journey to Madrid
to compete for the grand prize. Adding to the excitement, two lucky voters will
also be selected to join the finalists in Madrid, offering a once-in-a-lifetime
opportunity to witness the action up close, and participate in a tournament of
their own.

Garen Meserlian, Chief Marketing
Officer at easyMarkets, expressed his excitement about the award and ongoing
activities: “The ‘Leading Broker of the Year’ award is a phenomenal recognition
of our relentless dedication to excellence and innovation in the Forex trading
world. At easyMarkets, we are passionate about delivering extraordinary service
and groundbreaking opportunities, like the xBar Cup competition, that engage
and inspire our community. The energy and enthusiasm we experienced in Dubai
reaffirm our commitment to empowering traders and pushing the boundaries of
what’s possible in the financial markets.”

Don’t miss out on the action –
participate in the xBar Cup, brought to you by easyMarkets, and vote for your
favourite freestyler today! Visit https://www.xbarcup.com/ to cast your vote.

ABOUT EASYMARKETS

easyMarkets, founded in
2001, is an award-winning global broker. One of the first to offer an online
experience with innovative risk management tools, including free guaranteed
stop loss, easyTrade, Freeze Rate, and dealCancellation, easyMarkets provides
its sizeable clientele with a streamlined, accessible, and flexible trading
experience. Offering over 275 tradeable instruments, tight fixed spreads, and
24/5 dedicated support to traders around the world, easyMarkets continues to
revolutionize the trading sector by providing unparalleled security and
safeguards for client funds and consistently prioritizing client commitment and
satisfaction. 

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Euro takes a ride on the PMI seesaw
• ECB’s Holzmann: A 25 bps rate cut is probable in December
• ECB’s Holzmann says will cut rates if circumstances, inflation allow for it
• ECB’s Vasle says should keep cutting rates in „measured steps“
• France October flash services PMI 48.3 vs 49.9 expected
• Germany October flash manufacturing PMI 42.6 vs 40.8 expected
• Eurozone October flash services PMI 51.2 vs 51.5 expected
• UK October flash services PMI 51.8 vs 52.4 expected
• UK October CBI trends total orders -27 vs -28 expected
• German wages continuing to grow despite economic headwinds – Bundesbank

Markets:

• JPY leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%
• US 10-year yields down 5 bps to 4.192%
• Gold up 0.7% to $2,735.56
• WTI crude up 1.0% to $71.49
• Bitcoin up 0.7% to $67,071

Bond yields are coming off the boil and that’s the main driver leading markets so far today.

USD/JPY is down 0.6% as such to 151.90, pushing lower in European morning trade from around 152.20 earlier. The greenback surrendered some of its gains from earlier in the week as well given the circumstances.

10-year Treasury yields are marked down by 5 bps to under 4.20% and that’s giving broader markets a bit of a breather.

The euro was in focus amid PMI data, which saw mixed fortunes for France and Germany. That resulted in a bit of a seesaw action with EUR/USD falling initially to 1.0771 before climbing back up to around 1.0790 levels now. Large option expiries at 1.0800 is helping to keep price action in check.

As yields are keeping lower, equities are also looking to seek some relief. Tech shares led gains early on after Tesla’s earnings beat overnight. But that eventually translated to broader bids in European morning trade with regional indices also nudging higher.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% as stocks look to bounce back later in Wall Street trading.

All in all, that is pinning the dollar down a little across the board as the gains cool off. GBP/USD is up 0.4% to 1.2975 and AUD/USD up 0.3% to 0.6650 as the greenback’s run pauses ahead of the jobless claims and US PMI data later.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The inaugural Finance Magnates Annual Awards (FMAA) Gala kicked off last night at Lemon Park Venue in Nicosia, Cyprus, drawing some of the biggest name companies and executives in the industry. The black tie event was powered by AWS and constituted the highest standards of both transparency and excellence in the financial services arena. After a nomination and voting stage, the final winners were unveiled last night – to the surprise of nobody, the list included some standout companies and outperformers.

What it Wins to Mean a FMAA

Winning a FMAA award is the highest honor that any brand can achieve. This requires not only being nominated as one of the elite companies in the industry but also being voted on by a panel of independent judges. This year’s awards covered several different categories that were up for grabs, recognizing such attributes as innovation, outstanding client service, and best performing brokers. The following judges took part in the voting:

The awards helped shine a bright spotlight on the winning brands, showcasing both their strengths as well as leadership in the industry. There is no better way to set oneself apart from the competition, given the enormous weight and validation placed behind these titles.

And the Winners Are….

Finance Magnates is proud to recognize the winners of this year’s coveted FMAA:

Global:

• Broker of the Year – Deriv
• Most Trusted Broker – FP Markets
• Fastest Growing Broker – Trading PRO
• Best Customer Experience Broker – XM

Regional:

• Broker of the Year – Asia – FP Markets
• Most Trusted Broker – Asia – FBS
• Fastest Growing Broker – Asia – ATFX
• Broker of the Year – Africa – Trading PRO
• Most Trusted Broker – Africa – Deriv
• Fastest Growing Broker – Africa – Headway
• Broker of the Year – LATAM – FBS
• Most Trusted Broker – LATAM – FxPro
• Fastest Growing Broker – LATAM – FP Markets
• Best Customer Experience Broker – LATAM XM

National:

• Broker of the Year – Vietnam – Axi
• Broker of the Year – Thailand – EC Markets
• Broker of the Year – Malaysia – Headway
• Broker of the Year – South Africa – Amega

A big congratulations to this year’s winners!

This article was written by Jeff Patterson at www.forexlive.com.

• Collective wage agreements in Germany were up 6.2% y/y between January and August
• These findings do not fundamentally call into question the expected disinflation process
• But labour market situation is of great importance for the speed and extent of disinflation
• GDP likely shrank again in Q3 but should avoid a significant and broad-based decline in output

Just a couple of small notes but as mentioned by the Bundesbank, the higher wages are not quite reflected in the consumer prices presently. That said, it is still a spot worth keeping an eye out for just in case.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -35

UK factory order book balance holds in negative territory in October, keeping not much changed to the month before. The volume of new orders, measured quarterly, declined to -11 from +1 previously and that hints at softer sentiment with the reading being the weakest since October 2020.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.