The major US stock indices could not keep the momentum going and is ending the day and the year with a down day. The declines today, however, were not large enough to close the week lower. As a result, the major indices are ending higher for the 9th consecutive week to end a strong year for US indices.

The closing levels for the day are showing:

• Dow Industrial Average fell -20.58 points or -0.05% or 37689.55
• S&P fell -13.54 points or -0.28% at 4769.82
• Nasdaq fell -83.79 points or -0.56% at 15011.34

The small-capRussell 2000 index fell -31.26 points ro -1.52% at 2027.07.

For the week, the major indices all closed higher for the 9th consecutive weeks:

• Dow rose 0.81%
• S&P index rose 0.32%
• Nasdaq index rose 0.12%.

The Russell 2000 fell -0.33% with the decline today.

For the trading year, the Nasdaq index led the way to the upside, but all three major indices rebounded from sharp declines in 2022.

• Dow rose 13.70% after falling -8.78% in 2022. The Dow industrial average made new all-time highs in 2023 after pushing above the 2022 high at 36952.65.
• S&P index rose 24.23% after falling -19.44% in 2022. The S&P got within 3 points of the all-time high close at 4796.57. The high for the year was reached this week at 4793.30 but could not extend to a new record close. .
• Nasdaq index rose 43.42%, the largest gain since 43.64% in 2020. The gain over 43% is the 3rd where the Nasdaq rose between 43% and 44% since 2009. In 2010, the index rose 16.9%. IN 2021, the following year saw a gain of 21.39%

The Russell 2000 rose 15.09% thanks to a strong gain starting in mid-November.

In 2023, the so-called „Magnificent 7“ were grouped, named and became the major influence to the gains seen this year Those stocks consisted of Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Tesla. Each of those stocks experienced oversized gains for the year led by Nvidia.

• Nvidia, 238.87%
• Meta, 194.13%
• Apple, 48.22%
• Alphabet, 58.32%
• Microsoft, 56.80%
• Amazon, 80.95%
• Tesla, 101.72%

Other big gainers for the year included:

• Palantir +167.29%
• Uber, +148.97%
• Crowdstrike, 142.49%
• Shopify, 124.37%
• Palo Alto Networks, 111.32%

Some losers this year included:

• AMC, -82.96%
• Raytheon, -46.77%
• Moderna, -44.63%
• Pfizer, -43.81%
• Chewy, -36.27%

Looking at the 11 sectors of the S&P index, the Information Technology sector led the way with a gain of 56.39%. The Utilities and Energy were the worst performers in 2023. As a point of comparison, in 2022, Energy and Utilities were the best performing sectors, while Communications and Discretionary were the worst performers:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The global asset that dominated the conversation in much of 2023 and particularly in Q4 was the 10-year Treasury note. However after a tumultuous year, it finishes nearly unchanged.

The 10-year closed 2022 at 3.83% and it closes today at 3.87%. In the meantime it fell as low as 3.25% on the spring regional US banking crisis and as high as 5.02% on the October debt rout.

The yearly chart paints a doji star, which is an indication of further volatility ahead.

Other changes on the bond curve:

• Two year yields down 11.3 bps on the year
• 30-year yields up 9 bps on the year

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Someone has a Canadian dollar order that needs to be filled before the turn of the year.

The loonie is soaring today on steady bids despite a deterioration in risk sentiment. There’s no data out of Canada and the oil market isn’t doing much today so this is purely a flow-driven move. We’re seeing some other ones as well, which is what you would expect at this time of year.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

At this time last year, everyone was fretting about a 2023 recession. That’s the kind of setup that led to a 55% rally in the Nasdaq (with some help from AI) and a 24% rally in the S&P 500.

How does the market feel going into 2024?

Recession calls have disappeared, stocks are up nine weeks in a row and there’s the Fear & Greed Index.

My base case is that we see rotation from megacap tech into broader indexes or value early in the year but there’s a compelling case that there are trillions of dollars on the sidelines that will flow into stocks in 2024.

‚Extreme greed‘ is never a good sign but there has been an extreme change in the fundamentals, with yields dropping, the Fed signalling a pivot and inflation looking like it’s dead.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The SNB has been active in bolstering the Swiss franc in the first three quarters of the year, as they are trying to dampen the impact of imported inflation to the economy. Here’s a look at their recent forex sales in the last few quarters:

• Q4 2022: CHF 27.3 billion
• Q1 2023: CHF 32.3 billion
• Q2 2023: CHF 40.3 billion (largest amount since statistics began in 2020)
• Q3 2023: CHF 37.6 billion (~$45 billion)

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 96.7; revised to 97.2

That’s a slight improvement to Swiss economic prospects but overall levels remain rather tepid at best, hinting that the outlook remains rather uncertain heading into next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +3.2%

The added good news here is that core annual inflation is seen easing further to 3.8%, down from 4.5% in November. However, headline annual inflation appears to be sticking around just above 3% after a brief dip below 2% in June.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Xinhua news agency is reporting that the start date to the annual meeting will be on 5 March and this usually will go on for nearly two weeks. The sessions are used to discuss key legislative matters involving the economy and social issues, with voting for new laws also set to take place.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.2%

Over the course of the year, UK house prices fell by 1.8% and that is arguably much less hurtful than anticipated considering the rate hikes by the BOE. The average price of a dwelling is seen at £257,443 to end the year. Nationwide does note that a rebound next year „appears unlikely“ though as they say that „consumer confidence remains weak and surveyors continue to report subdued levels of new buyer enquiries“.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the first week of December, it looked like gold was set for a bit of a reality check after the rally above $2,100 fizzled rather quickly. That saw price dip back below $2,000 but gold bugs have definitely salvaged the situation in a push to a record high close this week. Thinner liquidity conditions may still cast some doubts over the latest move higher but there are points to argue for gold to chase a further move higher heading into next year.

And the seasonal tailwind in January is arguably one of the strongest points there could be in advocating for an extension higher.

Amid lighter trading this week, gold is now at $2,077 and posted a record daily close in trading yesterday. It might be tough to look too much into the moves at the moment but there is definitely a feeling that gold bugs are getting a little too anxious in trying to drag the precious metal past the $2,100 mark and to new heights at this point.

The way I see it, gold is poised for one of two things now. It is either we go off to the races to start the new year i.e. fresh record highs, or we get a notable squeeze lower before buyers reload on long positions. It would really surprise me if we got a quiet and slow January, all things considered.

As for the hesitancy to say which is more likely, it is to do with the fact that I heavily detest reading too much into year-end and thin liquidity moves such as what we’re seeing this week. As such, I still do hold some reservations about the high points for gold on the week currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.