If artificial intelligence is the future, then Sam Altman was the man delivering it.

The CEO of OpenAI, which created ChatGPT, was unceremoniously given his pink slip today. The company released a statement that said:

Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the
board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his
communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its
responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to
continue leading OpenAI.

The company said that chief technology officer Mira Murati would take his place on an interim basis.

In a statement, the board of directors said: “OpenAI was deliberately
structured to advance our mission: to ensure that artificial general
intelligence benefits all humanity. The board remains fully committed to
serving this mission. We are grateful for Sam’s many contributions to
the founding and growth of OpenAI. At the same time, we believe new
leadership is necessary as we move forward. As the leader of the
company’s research, product, and safety functions, Mira is exceptionally
qualified to step into the role of interim CEO. We have the utmost
confidence in her ability to lead OpenAI during this transition period.”

From what I understand, Altman took no salary from OpenAI and he had no shares in the company (though some dispute this), despite founding it and growing it to a $90 billion valuation. He was independently wealthy before he helped found OpenAI.

Hopefully we will get more clarity on what happened here.

The statement also noted that Greg Brockman will be stepping down as
chairman of the board, suggesting there was some dissent around the decision.

On twitter, Altman said „I loved my time at OpenAi. it was transformative for me personally, and hopefully the world a little bit. most of all i loved working with such talented people.

will have more to say about what’s next later.“

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• US October housing starts 1.372m vs 1.350m expected
• Fed’s Collins: I wouldn’t take additional hiking off the table
• OPEC+ sources:To consider whether to deepen oil output cuts at next meeting on November 26
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 2.0% vs 2.2% prior
• Fed’s Goolsbee: We will do whatever it takes to beat inflation
• US issues fresh Iran-related sanctions
• Fed’s Daly: Fed needs ‚the boldness to wait‘ given uncertainty
• Baker Hughes oil rig count +6 to 500
• Fed’s Collins doesn’t comment on current policy
• ECB’s Wunsch: We are in a weak form of stagflation today
• Canada PPI data for October -1.0% versus 0.4% last month and 0.2% expected

Markets:

• Gold down $1 to $1980
• WTI crude oil up $2.90 to $75.80
• US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.44%
• S&P 500 flat
• JPY leads, USD lags

The FX and energy markets were the lively spots on Friday as bonds and equities started the weekend early.

The US dollar continued to slide as the market firms up the belief that the Fed is done hiking and the economic data will begin to turn south. The euro was steadily bid and climbed above 1.09 for the first time since late August and finished near the highs.

Cable was strong as well as it rose to 1.2460 from 1.2375 at the start of European trading. The dollar found some bids into the London fix but quickly gave it back.

The Fed’s Collins had an opportunity to push back against market pricing but only offered up token resistance to the ’no hikes‘ narrative. The bond market chopped around and ultimately front end yields finished a tad higher with the long end down.

USD/JPY did most of its work in Asia and Europe as it fell to 149.30. It bounced slightly in North American trade but still finished the day down 110 pips.

The antipodeas all made up some ground in erasing yesterday’s losses. They were helped along by a rebound in oil.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

On the day:

• S&P 500 +0.1%
• Nasdaq Comp +0.1%
• DJIA flat
• Russell 2000 +1.2%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.6%

On the week:

• S&P 500 +2.2%
• Nasdaq Comp +2.4%
• DJIA +1.9%
• Russell 2000 +5.3%
• Toronto TSX Comp +2.6%

That’s a nice weekly gain for the Russell 2000 but it’s a long way to go to get back to the 2021 highs.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The upcoming week features a series of significant economic releases, auctions, and reports that market participants will be watching closely.

Monday, November 20

The week kicks off with a Treasury auction of 20-year securities worth $16 billion, an event that will give us insights into market demand for long-term government debt. It comes in the aftermath of last week’s terrible 30-year sale.

Tuesday, November 21

At 8:30 AM, we’ll see the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a comprehensive measure of overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure.
Later, a 2-year Treasury note auction for $26 billion is set to occur, which could affect short-term interest rates.
The Existing Home Sales report, scheduled for release at 10:00 AM, will provide a snapshot of the health of the U.S. housing market.The Fed minutes are out at 2 PM and there’s also a 10-year TIPS sale.

Wednesday, November 22

A busy morning begins at 8:30 AM with the durable goods orders report for October, an important indicator of manufacturing health. Economists are keen to see if the consensus +3.1% rise will materialize but the main number is always the capital goods orders non-defense ex-air line.
Initial jobless claims data will also be released as well, offering the latest insights into the labor market’s strength. The first look at November UMich consumer sentiment is due at 10 AM.

Thursday, November 23

Thanksgiving Day in the United States is a holiday and a quiet day in markets.

Friday, November 24

The shortened post-holiday session includes the release of the S&P Global U.S. Services and Manufacturing PMI reports at 9:45 AM. These Purchasing Managers‘ Indexes will provide critical data on the private sector’s economic activity.

The market is sensitive to economic data right now and the dollar will trade off signs of economic strength or weakness, which can influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and market movements. Keep in mind, unexpected results from these reports can cause significant market volatility.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs provides insights into the expected monetary policy paths of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), forecasting the timelines for rate cuts and stabilization of policy rates.

Key Insights:

1. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook:
   • Hold on Rates: The Fed is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 5.25-5.5% into 2024.
   • First Rate Cut in 4Q24: Goldman Sachs anticipates the initial rate cut to occur in the fourth quarter of 2024, proceeding at a pace of 25 basis points per quarter.
   • Higher Equilibrium Rate: The stabilization of the Fed funds rate is projected at a range of 3.5-3.75%, indicating a higher equilibrium rate compared to the previous cycle.

2. European Central Bank Policy Outlook:

   • End of Hiking Cycle: The ECB’s rate hiking cycle is believed to have concluded, with rates expected to remain on hold at 4.00%.
   • First Rate Cut in 3Q24: The initial reduction in rates is forecasted for the third quarter of 2024, followed by a consistent cut pace of 25 basis points per quarter until the end of 2025.
   • Policy Rate Projection: The ECB’s policy rate is anticipated to reach 2.5% by the fourth quarter of 2025.

3. ECB Balance Sheet Policy:

   • PEPP Reinvestment Limitation: Starting from the second quarter of 2024, the ECB is expected to limit Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) reinvestments to EUR 10 billion per month.
   • Halting Reinvestments: A complete stop in all reinvestments is projected from the third quarter of 2024.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs‘ analysis suggests a cautious and gradual approach by both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in unwinding their current tight monetary policies. While the Fed is expected to start easing rates in late 2024, the ECB is predicted to begin its rate cuts a bit earlier in mid-2024. Both central banks are projected to follow a measured pace in reducing rates, reflecting ongoing economic and inflationary considerations.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Nasdaq Composite this week rallied into a key
swing level following the miss in the US CPI report. The
market is still trading based on the inflation and interest rates expectations
and ignoring the deteriorating labour market and growth data. The lack of a
rally following the better than expected US Retail Sales data and
the miss in the US PPI and Jobless Claims figures
though, might be a sign that the rally got overstretched and we could see at
least a pullback.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite
is consolidating just below a key swing level at 14155 after an incredible
rally following the miss in the US CPI report. We can also notice that the price
got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that in case we get
a pullback, the buyers might want to lean on the support zone
around the 13700 level where they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, are likely to step in already at these levels with
a defined risk above the high to position for a drop into the support.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price
is diverging with
the MACD right
at the key resistance. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often
followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the buyers might also want to
lean on the upward trendline where
there’s also the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the support zone.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• To ban sales to Russia, or for use in Russia, of tankers, of any origin, for crude oil or petroleum products
• To ban direct or indirect import, purchase or transfer of diamonds from Russia
• Ban includes stones processed in third countries
• To phase in ban on Russian diamonds processed in third countries from March next year

Whatever the case is, it isn’t going to get Russia to budge. We’re well over a year into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and this looks to be the new normal in the region already.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s shaping up to be a rough end to the week for the dollar as markets are finally following through on the moves on Tuesday. Treasury yields are pushed lower and the greenback is suffering for it, with USD/JPY now down 0.9% to 149.30 on the day.

10-year yields are down 5.2 bps to 4.392% and stocks are looking to work with that to finish the week with a flourish. European indices are up roughly 1% while S&P 500 futures are now up 0.2% on the day after a bit more of a tentative start.

Going back to the dollar, it is even trading lower against the euro and pound now with EUR/USD up 0.2% to 1.0870 and GBP/USD up 0.2% to 1.2433. The latter traded to a low of 1.2375 earlier on after softer UK retail sales data.

The antipodeans are also capitalising on that, with AUD/USD testing waters above 0.6500 again in trying to chase a technical breakout as outlined here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Markets should know that it’s not the end of the story yet
• Anything can happen in December meeting

Interestingly enough, when asked if he does rule out a rate cut in Q2 next year, he replies „that would be a bit early“. It’s a confusing one as does it mean it is too early to rule out rate cuts or does he deem that Q2 is too early to think about rate cuts? I reckon he means the latter but comments like this can be lost in translation at times.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a back and forth last few days for AUD/USD but it looks like perhaps buyers are finally about to win out the week. With the dollar tumbling alongside bond yields today, the aussie is managing to pick itself back up to trade above 0.6500 currently. And in this instance, it’s a second chance for redemption for buyers in trying to clinch a key technical break.

The second bite of the cherry if you will is the attempt to hold a firm break above 0.6500 and the 100-day moving average (red line).

That will solidify a stronger bullish momentum going into next week, as the better risk mood in stocks is also helping out with the upside push. The next key target to watch if this is held will be the 200-day moving average (blue line) at 0.6593 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.