<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the bearish trend is healthy in the AUD/USD pair with clean pullbacks
and selloffs. Commodity currencies are sensitive to global growth and risk sentiment,
and this is why we’ve been seeing the US Dollar appreciating the most against
currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD. </p><p>We can see that the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are clearly crossed to the downside and are acting as resistance for
the buyers. The downward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> is also defining the bearish
trend and the buyers will need a break above it to start getting some
conviction in a trend change. </p><p>Recently, the market priced out
hawkish bets on the Fed due to the failure of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/fdic-takes-control-of-silicon-valley-bank-20230310/“>Silicon
Valley Bank</a>. This has led to some USD depreciation, but
fundamentally it also means that we may be near the recession, which ultimately
favours the greenback. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has been rejected by the trendline and the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. There may be some long covering before the
US CPI report today. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>Inflation data today</a> should add to the recent
volatility. A beat to the expected numbers should give the USD a boost and give
the sellers the control to push the price to lower lows. A miss may extend the
USD depreciation and lead to the breakout of the trendline. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>diverged</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a> right at the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 0.6698 and the Fibonacci
level. This was a signal of a loss of buying momentum and in fact we got a
pullback. </p><p>We can also notice that there may
be a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>head
and shoulders</a> pattern with the orange trendline as the neckline.
The levels here are defined. If the sellers break below the neckline and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> zone at 0.6630, then we should
see new lower lows coming. If the buyers break above the resistance at 0.6698
and the trendline, then we should see a rally towards the next resistance at
0.6781. Watch out for the CPI report today!</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>He says that the collapse of SVB and the market turmoil that ensued after is just „part of the process“ as the world adjusts to tighter financial conditions following years of easy money.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“This is part of the process of the knob being turned to tighten financial conditions to make sure that we are on our way to normalising a higher interest rate world. But there might well be surprises, there might well be reactions.“</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s easier to just say it as it is when you’re part of a flock that must be protected at all costs by lawmakers and policymakers alike. As said earlier, when the smaller and regional banks are facing such troubles, there is only one winner. And it is these bunch of guys:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-other-big-us-banks-flooded-with-new-clients-post-svb-collapse-ft-2023-03-14/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>JP Morgan, other big US banks flooded with new clients post SVB collapse – FT</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that compared to other currencies, the US Dollar hasn’t weakened too much.
This may be because the CAD is a commodity currency and it’s sensitive to
global growth and commodity prices. </p><p>The bad news out of the US like a
miss in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-weekly-initial-jobless-claims-211k-vs-195k-expected-20230309/“>Jobless
Claims</a>, the pickup in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-non-farm-payrolls-311k-vs-205k-expected-20230310/“>unemployment
rate</a> and the failure of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/fdic-takes-control-of-silicon-valley-bank-20230310/“>Silicon
Valley Bank</a>, are also bad news for the Canadian economy which
has the US as the biggest trading partner. </p><p>Moreover, the US is the biggest
economy in the world, and when it goes into recession the whole world is
affected, which is also bearish for commodities like oil for example. In fact,
we saw <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CIPuZN0R/?symbol=NYMEX%3ACL1%21″>oil
prices</a> falling in line with the fall in the USD. </p><p>We can see on the chart that the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are still clearly pointing north and the bullish trend with extensions
and retracements looks healthy. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that price has pulled back to the upward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> and the 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. The buyers here will be fighting to push
the price up as they have many technical tools all in one place. </p><p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 1.3664 will be the last line
of defence for the buyers as a break lower would open the door for a bigger
fall towards the 1.3520 level. A lot may be hanging on the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>US CPI report today</a>. In case we get a beat in the
data, the USD should come back, while a miss may give the sellers control and
lead to the breakout. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that there’s a possible inverted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>head
and shoulders</a> right at the trendline. This may be a sign that
the buyers are piling in and are looking for a push higher. </p><p>The neckline would be at 1.3800
but a break higher of the counter-trendline would give the buyers enough
conviction to start rallying and target the 1.3861 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> without waiting for the neckline
break. All of this should be considered after the US CPI report as ultimately,
it’s the data that will give the direction. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Market picture</p><p>The crypto
market is now showing increased volatility. On Monday morning, the price
climbed from Friday’s low of $19.5K up to $22.7K. There are more fundamental
factors behind bitcoin’s decline, while we see tech behind the rebound in
recent days.</p><p>The problems
at Silicon Valley Bank triggered a sell-off in risky assets, including bitcoin.
At one point, it fell below its 200-day average, although it was higher at
Friday’s close, attracting buyers. Later, the RSI on the daily timeframe moved
out of the oversold territory – another early bullish signal.</p><p>However, the
upside amplitude was provided by reduced liquidity. On Monday, Bitcoin faces an
important test of market sentiment. During the day, we must watch closely to
see if we have a clean sell-off by the hawks. If so, it’s an important signal
that the recent rally was false and that the big players are still selling at
better prices.</p><p>Potential
buyers would still be better off waiting for a fix above $23,000 to confirm a
bullish reversal.</p><p>According to
CoinMarketCap, the total capitalisation of the crypto market passed $1 trillion
on Monday morning.</p><p>Stablecoin
USD Coin (USDC) lost its peg to the US dollar on Saturday, falling below $0.88
amid the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which held $3.3 billion of its
reserves. DAI is also in trouble, falling below $0.90 as USDC partially backs
the token. At the same time, many other stablecoins have crossed the $1.01 mark.</p><p>News background</p><p>Tron founder
Justin Sun proposed the creation of a bank for the needs of the crypto industry
amid the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>Michael
Barr, deputy head of the US Federal Reserve, has proposed creating a group to
develop the regulation of crypto assets. According to him, if the Fed fails to
regulate stablecoins, their widespread adoption could threaten the US economy.</p><p>The US
Treasury unveiled plans for the 2024 budget replenishment and said it intends
to impose a 30% excise tax on mining companies‘ electricity use.</p><p>Renowned
economist and cryptocurrency sceptic Peter Schiff called for cryptocurrencies
to be sold as the industry is „about to see more bankruptcies“. He
pointed to the collapse of Silvergate Bank and US economic data that would
force the Fed to raise interest rates.</p><p>Twitter CEO
Elon Musk said he was „open to the idea“ of buying the troubled
Silicon Valley Bank to turn the social network into a financial hub and digital
bank.</p><p>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It would be interesting if there is a Q&amp;A session to follow his speech but given the circumstances, I think that is highly unlikely. But we’ll see.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Gold enjoyed a stellar start to the new year as it capitalised on its usual January seasonal tailwind, before things went awry in February in a $150 drop from the highs at the start of the month. When Fed chair Powell delivered more hawkish remarks last week it took price back near its 100-day moving average (red line) but amid the whole SVB situation, gold bugs are finding renewed vigour in a push towards $1,900 now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>We are currently seeing price trade at its highest levels in over five weeks, with buyers looking to try and breach the 9 February high of $1,890.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This comes as the dollar remains on the softer side today, as markets are paring back Fed rate hike odds. The March decision is essentially <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/fed-rate-hike-odds-have-turned-to-become-a-coin-flip-now-20230313/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>a coin flip</a> now and that’s music to the ears of gold buyers. Adding to that is the sharp drop in bond yields and gold has rallied by over 4% in the past three trading sessions.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The major headwind for gold is that central banks will have to keep tightening amid high inflation. However, if policymakers have already started to break certain parts of the economy, then perhaps we could see a policy pivot come into play sooner and that will be a really massive tailwind for the yellow metal in the year(s) to come.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the sellers eventually managed to break below the key <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> level at 32684. The recent
breakout was caused by the collapse of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/svb-collapse-whats-next-20230312/“>Silicon
Valley Bank</a> on Friday which spread fears of contagion in the
banking system and led to risk aversion across the board. </p><p>The Treasury and the Fed worked
during the weekend on a solution for this particular matter and came up with an
<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/us-official-says-banks-not-being-bailed-out-nah-theyre-being-bailed-out-heres-how-20230312/“>emergency
lending facility</a> that would protect the depositors and give the
banks the chance to convert their long term securities at original value
instead of being marked to market. This development pushed the markets up as
the futures market reopened and the price rallied all night long. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the overnight rally stalled at the red long period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a>. This is a zone where the
sellers may be leaning on and the key <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 32684 offers a good
protection for shorts. The buyers will need to break above the 32684 level if
they want to gain control and target the major trendline as the first target. </p><p>What comes next though, should be
decided by the CPI report tomorrow. The market is currently pricing a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/oh-how-the-tables-have-turned-20230313/“>higher
chance of 25 bps hike</a> at the March meeting and completely priced out the
50 bps chance. A beat across the board in the data may raise odds of the 50 bps
hike and push the market lower, while a miss should give the buyers lots of
strength to push higher and make new higher highs. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the resistance zone at 32684 is pretty strong. We have <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/“>confluence</a> of the trendline, the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level and the above-mentioned resistance. This
will be the first line of defence for the sellers. If the buyers break above,
the sellers may want to wait for the price to approach the major trendline
first before starting to pile in. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>They add that checks will continue to clear and that loan payments by customers should be made accordingly as per usual, with ‚Bridge Bank‘ set to open and resume normal banking hours. Former Fannie Mae CEO, Tim Mayopoulos, has been named as CEO.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>They’re still waiting on that buyer surely. Tick tock, tick tock.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>48 hours is all it took for Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) to become the second-worst banking failure in the US, after Washington Mutual’s collapse in 2008. The background of the two could not be more different though. SVB mainly focuses on companies, as it is arguably the key player for liquidity for tech startups and venture capitalists in the environment, while Washington Mutual was a firm that catered more towards retail clients.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That explains why SVB has a rather lopsided portfolio when it comes to the nature of their deposits, with over 90% being uninsured deposits i.e. exceeding the FDIC’s insurance limit of $250,000.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As such, this bank run was not your usual one in the sense that it happened to a rather peculiar bank, that catered to a rather unique sector of clients. One can argue that the risks involved may be more idiosyncratic but it isn’t that simple.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Let’s take a quick look at some relevant information in making sense of the supposed „sudden“ collapse in SVB.</p><p>For starters, the warning signs have already been there.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/RagingVentures/status/1615826088038473733″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>This</a> is probably one of the best takes on what were the underlying problems at SVB and guess what? It was put out back on 18 January. It covers the whole HMT issue, which Adam also pointed out <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/held-to-maturity-bonds-are-about-to-be-a-big-problem-20230310/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. In essence, rising interest rates are becoming more of a problem for banks as they take a hit on their bonds portfolio. </p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This Wall St Journal <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-interest-rates-hit-banks-bond-holdings-11668123473″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>piece</a> (may be gated) from last year is also a warning that SVB isn’t the only player that may be facing such strains. There are some bigger names involved but perhaps their risk and credit management are not as shoddy as what was taking place at SVB.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The saying tends to go that the Fed usually hikes until something breaks, and this might be that something.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Now, SVB isn’t your „too big to fail“ kind of market actor and that is perhaps why we are getting a bit of a debate as to whether or not lawmakers and policymakers might actually step in to bail out the situation.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Essentially, that’s where we are at now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Looking over at their immediate client exposure, there are some big names that are directly impacted from SVB. You can check out the individual disclosures <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=%2522Silicon%2520Valley%2520Bank%2522&amp;dateRange=custom&amp;category=form-cat1&amp;startdt=2023-03-10&amp;enddt=2023-03-10″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>here</a> if you want to go into more detail. The list below is accurate as of the standings on 10 March (h/t Ben Hoban @wbhoban for making a neat summary for some of the more relevant ones):</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Roku is obviously one of the biggest names on the list and having an approximately 26% cash balance exposure is a big risk.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The real fear is how all of this trickles down to the connected parties and how that all interlinks to other firms which are not directly involved with SVB. The potential spillover effect may be massive but again, all of this is taking place inside this ecosystem of tech startups mostly.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>To put things more bluntly, this isn’t the collapse of the main banking sector and financial system in the economy. This is pretty much just a failure of a peculiar bank in a rather niche ecosystem that makes up for just one part of the economy.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Now, that is not to say that one should discount the risks involved with such a failure though. Always remember, markets and in this instance, humans are driven by emotions at their very core. And fear is an extremely powerful one, to say the least.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The traumatic experience from the global financial crisis will definitely reignite plenty of that again over the weekend and come tomorrow, people will be looking to the FDIC to try and broker a sale of SVB to try and calm fears of a more widespread contagion.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Now, in a more logical sense, SVB doesn’t quite have the status to cause a 2008-09 dominoes effect in the financial system but the fear that it could, might have that sort of potential. In essence, it is sort of self-fulfilling as overblown and sensationalist headlines spread panic and hysteria, and everyone’s reaction gets influenced into thinking that „this is Lehman Brothers all over again“.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>So, what’s next?</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>All eyes will be on whether we will see SVB get bought out by another market actor and that will take care of itself, in the sense that it will cover for depositors (yes, including those uninsured) and the fear of contagion stops there.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I would think that the FDIC and the Fed would not want to see tech startups go bust en masse and the best way to prevent something disorderly from taking place would be just that.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I mean, there is definitely a real possibility that SVB just dies off and having to sell all of its assets at a haircut, failing to cover all of its depositors. However, that is worst-case scenario and something that lawmakers and policymakers would want to actively avoid since it may potentially trigger bank runs elsewhere as the fear continues to spread.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I reckon come Monday, the fear and distress all across markets would still be high and that might continue for a bit. This is contingent of course to a deal being brokered for SVB to be sold off, which perhaps could take a while within the next week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In that sense, headlines will be everything. And if there isn’t anything, I think markets will be comfortable to sell first and ask questions later until the silence is broken. But the minute anything hits the wires about a SVB deal, expect markets to turn on its head and risk trades to start recovering.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As always in times like these, I will always preach the mantra of buy value, sell hysteria.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is one of the most widely recognized stock market indices in the world. It tracks the performance of 30 large-cap American companies and is often seen as a barometer of the overall health of the US economy.</p><p class=“text-align-start“>In this Dow Jones futures video, i duscuss the technical analysis of the Dow Jones and share my perspective on the potential for a bounce in the market. I note that there has been a lot of <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/fdic-takes-control-of-silicon-valley-bank-20230310/“>negative (and meaningful for many companies!) news regarding banks</a> and other factors that could impact the market. However, I believe that there is a contrarian long opportunity for traders who are willing to take a limited risk.

</p><p class=“text-align-start“>
I present the bull channel that was broken previously, and subsequently retested. There is another retest now, and while there is a possibility of a piercing the channel on this retest (price entering the channel), I believe that it is worthwhile to target a bounce is in the very near future.</p><p class=“text-align-start“>I share that I will be looking look for a long opportunity in the area where the channel was broken out of, and note that the reward versus risk is favorable. I do caution traders to do their own analysis and trade at their own risk, but believe that there is a good reason to take a bet on the daily time frame.</p><p class=“text-align-start“>This analysis and its trade „lookout“ may be right or wrong BUT IN ANY CASE, it highlights the importance of technical analysis in situations like this, where there may be a lot of over-excitement or panic based on news events. They suggest that traders who follow technical analysis may be able to identify high risk-reward key junctions where algorithms and traders may be looking to buy or sell, and take advantage of those opportunities.</p><p class=“text-align-start“>Visit <a target=“_blank“ href=“www.forexlive.com“>ForexLive.com</a> for additional views and trade the Dow Jones at your own risk.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.