If there’s one thing that must be said about oil prices, is that it has been remarkably resilient over the past two months. And especially so in the past few weeks of trading.Global growth worries. China lockdowns. Worsening risk appetite. Recession fears weighing on demand outlook. And yet, all of that isn’t enough to sink oil below the $100 – at least not in a meaningful or significant manner.Going by the chart, there were some testing times since the retreat from the early March highs, but it seems like there is a certain stubbornness as price continues to hold up.I think one key argument that not many people are raising is that there continues to be a shortage in supply and the situation is likely to get worse amid the supposed transition to green energy. The fact there is underinvestment in the sector and falling inventories continue to allude to a tighter market in general.Throw in the fact that Russia supplies are being phased out with little to no immediate substitutes, the tighter market outlook is going to stay for longer. The capacity shortage and the fact that OPEC+ is also not doing much more than they are now isn’t going to help alleviate sentiment on that front either.When you throw in those factors and see how resilient oil prices have been as of late. It’s rather scary to imagine where prices might end up once we get over this hump.For now, the chart above points to a potential wedge pattern that is forming. That could hint at the next big move in oil if it breaks out from its somewhat consolidation pattern as of late.

I don’t want to be one to call it but for now, at least equities are seeing some breathing room as the week winds down.There’s still the US session to navigate through though and if there’s anything the wild swings have taught us this week is that to never discount a turnaround in sentiment before the closing bell.But for now at least, there are some optimistic signals. European indices are holding gains around 1.2% to 1.6% while US futures are also settling higher ahead of North American trading at least.S&P 500 futures are up 1.1%, Nasdaq futures up 1.7%, and Dow futures up 0.8% on the day.Elsewhere, bond yields are also moving up with 2-year Treasury yields up 6.6 bps to 2.588% and 10-year Treasury yields up 8.5 bps to 2.902%. In FX, things are less interesting with the recent dollar rally taking a breather with the greenback holding more mixed without any real technical significance so far today.

His tweet reads:“Twitter deal temporarily on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users“The company’s shares are now down 17.4% in pre-market trading. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

Prior +0.7%
Industrial production -0.8% vs -1.0% y/y expected
Prior +2.0%

Looking at the details, production of capital goods fell by 2.7% on the month, non-durable consumer goods by 2.3%, intermediate goods by 2.0% and energy by 1.7%, while production of durable
consumer goods rose by 0.8%.

Headlines:Dollar, yen bid across the board on risk-off vibesBitcoin in big trouble as plunge below $30,000 looks to holdNo brakes on the Chinese yuan slide just yetECB’s Kažimír: Ready to hike in JulyECB’s Makhlouf: The era of negative rates is reaching its conclusionUK Q1 preliminary GDP +0.8% vs +1.0% q/q expectedSwitzerland April producer and import prices +1.3% vs +0.8% m/m priorMarkets:JPY leads, AUD and NZD lagEuropean equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.4%US 10-year yields down 7 bps to 2.844%Gold down 0.3% to $1,847.43WTI crude down 1.3% to $104.33Bitcoin flat at $28,411It is a risk-off day in markets in general but not without a side dish of drama in the crypto space.The infamous Tether lost its $1 peg today, following suit from Terra’s crash from its own $1 peg this week. That sent cryptocurrencies into a spiral with Bitcoin tumbling to $25,000 levels at one point before steadying a little.Elsewhere, the bout of risk aversion continues to carry on as well. European equities slumped and are down nearly 2% across the board in catching up to Wall Street losses yesterday while US futures are also keeping lower across the board, with tech lagging again.The bond market remains bid for a fourth straight day this week and that is keeping things more interesting but a key implication for currencies is that it is helping to bolster the yen after its freefall since March.USD/JPY is down 1% to 128.60 levels as the yen is the runaway leader in the FX space. The dollar is the other beneficiary from the risk-off mood as it is posting a solid advance across the board as well.EUR/USD is down 0.8% to fresh lows since January 2017, eyeing the 1.0400 level. Meanwhile, GBP/USD dribbled lower to 1.2165 before recovering slightly now to 1.2210 but still down 0.3% on the day.The aussie and kiwi are the laggards in a classic tale of risk aversion today, with AUD/USD falling 0.9% to 0.6875 now – its lowest since June 2020.In the commodities space, oil is also down a little over 1% at around $104 but is arguably still rather resilient. Meanwhile, silver is one of the more notable movers as it is down over 2% and falling below $21 for the first time since July 2020.

It is time to move to end of APP next month or in JulyCurrent level of inflation is concerningRealistic to expect that rates are likely to be in positive territory by early next yearECB continuing on a path towards normalisation of policyFor one of the dovish members to come out with such an angle, I think it is rather evident that there has been a perception shift within the ECB. A rate hike in July seems all but a given now. However, despite the many policymakers calling for the end of negative rates, it may yet be a case of one that is too early to call.

The official goes on to deny rumours of a city-wide lockdown and „quiet-mode management“, adding that there is no need to stock up on food and supplies. We’ll see how things go but for now, China is still nowhere near abandoning their supposed ‚zero covid‘ policy and that remains a tail risk for the global economy.

A look at European indices at the moment:

Eurostoxx -2.3%
Germany DAX -2.2%
UK FTSE -2.2%
France CAC 40 -2.3%
Spain IBEX -1.5%
Italy FTSE MIB -1.7%

It’s looking rough out there though for European stocks, they are in part playing catch up to the sharp decline in Wall Street yesterday. That said, the overall market mood today isn’t looking good either. S&P 500 futures are down 0.7%, Nasdaq futures down 1.1%, and Dow futures down 0.6% currently.
The S&P 500 looks set to seal a break below its 100-week moving average if this keeps up:

He makes mention in a tweet (as per below). Well, all expectations are pointing towards that and markets are also well primed for it at this stage.

Headlines:An early shift towards ‚peak inflation‘ on the day?Bond sellers take their foot off the gas pedalECB’s Lagarde: APP should be concluded early in Q3ECB’s Vasle says supports further, faster policy actionECB’s de Guindos: Euro area inflation to remain at 4% to 5% at year-endECB’s Müller: Appropriate to raise rates into positive territory by year-endMore from Villeroy: ECB will start raising rates this summerECB’s Villeroy: Inflation should be back at around 2% in 2024US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 6 May +2.0% vs +2.5% priorGermany April final CPI +7.4% vs +7.4% y/y prelimMarkets:AUD leads, USD lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 1.2%US 10-year yields down 6.3 bps to 2.930%Gold down 0.8% to $1,851.60WTI crude up 4.2% to $103.90Bitcoin up 1.7% to $31,517The focus on the day is on the US CPI release coming later at 1230 GMT but markets are seemingly running with the idea that we’re settling into the ‚peak inflation‘ narrative already.The dollar dropped while equities and bonds were bid throughout the session. European indices are posting solid gains of around 1.5% to 2.% while 10-year Treasury yields settled below the 3% mark, down 6 bps to 2.93% currently.In FX, the greenback held weaker across the board with AUD/USD up over 1% back above the 0.7000 mark while USD/JPY is down 0.5% to below 130.00 at around 129.70 levels at the moment.The better risk mood is helping with sentiment among commodity currencies, with USD/CAD dragged down 0.5% to 1.2960 – mired between large expiries at 1.2950 and 1.3000 on the day. The loonie is also benefiting from higher oil prices with WTI crude up over 4% to near $104 as Shanghai’s COVID-19 situation saw an improvement, bringing about hope for loosening of restrictions.All eyes now turn towards the inflation data in the US, so let’s see what that has to offer as it will likely set the tone for markets for the remainder of the week as well.