When I look at the July seasonals, there isn’t much in the FX market. The patterns are minor and the moves small as the summer complacency sets in.

One thing stands out though: US equities.

The S&P 500 has climbed for eight straight years in July with an average gain of more than 3%. Stretching back to the turn of the century, it’s not quite as strong but it’s still the third-best month.

Moreover, the first few days of the month — the July 4 week — are among the strongest days of the year, historically.

Other tidbits (since 2000):

• Not nearly as strong for the DAX (mediocre month) and Nikkei (negative)
• 2nd best month for copper
• 4th worst month for the Dollar Index
• 4th best month for EUR/USD
• Strongest month for silver (but not gold)

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Biden tweets:

Folks, I might not walk as easily or talk as smoothly as I used to.

I might not debate as well as I used to.

But what I do know is how to tell the truth.

He said something along the same lines at a campaign stop in North Carolina.

I don’t put too much stock in this and I’m not sure when this purported meeting with Obama is supposed to take place but he certainly doesn’t sound like someone who is looking for an exit.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG discusses the potential impact of the French elections and the June NFP print on EUR/USD. The focus is on the risk premium already priced into EUR/USD and how the election results could influence further movements.

Key Points:

1. Current Situation:
   • Stabilization: EUR/USD has stabilized around the 1.0700 level after initially dropping by two big figures following the announcement of snap elections in France.
   • Risk Premium: MUFG estimates a 1.0% risk premium is currently priced into EUR/USD.

2. First Round of Elections:

   • Impact of Results: The first round of the French elections on Sunday will provide a clearer picture of the support for right and left parties.
   • Potential Outcomes:
     • Strong Performance by RN & NPF: If right-wing parties like National Rally (RN) and left-wing parties like New Popular Front (NPF) perform strongly, EUR/USD could move closer to the 1.0500 level.
     • Surprise from Centrists: If centrist parties or Les Republicains perform better than expected, this could lead to spread narrowing and modest EUR gains.

3. Next Week’s NFP Print:

   • Economic Data: The June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) print will also be a key event to watch, potentially adding to EUR/USD volatility depending on the results.

Conclusion:

MUFG highlights that the French elections and the June NFP print will be crucial events for EUR/USD. Strong performances by RN & NPF could push EUR/USD towards 1.0500, while better-than-expected results from centrists could support modest EUR gains. The current 1.0% risk premium suggests that markets are already pricing in some degree of political risk, but the actual election results will likely dictate the direction of EUR/USD in the coming week.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Major currencies move back to little changed on the day
• Japan chief Cabinet secretary says closely watching FX moves
• Latest poll sees Le Pen’s faction winning 37% of votes in first round of French election
• What are the main events for today?
• ECB’s Villeroy: Disinflation process is on track
• Fed’s Barkin: Policy tightening will eventually slow the economy further
• Fed’s Barkin: I don’t think forward guidance is particularly helpful right now
• France June preliminary CPI +2.1% vs +2.3% prior
• Spain June preliminary CPI +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y expected
• Italy June preliminary CPI +0.8% vs +1.0% y/y expected
• Germany June unemployment change 19k vs 15k expected
• Germany May import price index 0.0% vs vs +0.2% m/m expected
• UK Q1 final GDP +0.7% vs +0.6% q/q prelim

Markets:

• AUD leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 4.303%
• Gold up 0.3% to $2,333.81
• WTI crude up 0.7% to $81.42
• Bitcoin up 0.2% to $61,542

It was a more tentative session for FX, with traders seeing little appetite to move before we get to the US PCE price data later today.

We got some inflation data from France, Spain, and Italy but that failed to move the needle in the euro. The single currency is also stymied by larger option expiries on the day, layered between 1.0650 to 1.0725.

Overall, major currencies saw little appetite with dollar pairs now keeping roughly 0.1% changed across the board. USD/JPY remains one to watch, this time easing slightly during the session from 161.00 to 160.60 currently.

In the equities space, French stocks are lagging as investors sense caution ahead of the first round of the elections this weekend. That will also be a risk factor for the euro over the next two weeks. US futures are looking modestly optimistic, after having seen tech shares lead the bounce yesterday.

It’s over to the US PCE price data to see what that has to offer next. And just be wary of potential month-end and quarter-end shenanigans ahead of the London fix too.

Have a great weekend, everyone.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Real time consumer demand indicators still seem solid, not frothy
• I’m still hearing good solid demand growth in conversations with contacts
• Companies have cut back on their hiring but they have also cut back on firing

On the headline remark, he’s responding to the outlook for rate cuts. Once again, it just reaffirms that they’re not looking into that for the time being. The July meeting is going to be a continuation of the current narrative as such.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BDSwiss continues to take 2024 by storm, with the brokerage
once again standing out from the competition thanks to another successful
performance, this time at UF AWARDS Global 2024.

The company picked up two prestigious trophies,
receiving the “Best Research and Education Provider – Global” and “Best Trade
Execution – Global” awards in a glittering ceremony, attended by an audience of
senior figures from the world of online trading and fintech.

Held at Columbia Beach, Limassol on June 20, the UF
AWARDS celebrated the best performing online brokerages and fintech B2B
providers over the past year, establishing a benchmark for businesses to strive
for and achieve.

The event concluded proceedings at iFX EXPO
International 2024, the hallmark online trading exhibition which took place at
the City of Dreams Mediterranean Integrated Resort between 18-20 June.

A stellar year
of success

With a strong emphasis on brand recognition, BDSwiss
has successfully expanded its operations and boosted its global presence over
the past few years. This strategy has propelled the company into a period of
significant growth and development, as shown by the numerous honours it has
received over the past 12 months.

These two most recent accolades provide yet further
recognition of the exceptional educational resources and superior trading
conditions that BDSwiss continues to provide its many traders around the world.

It also comes fresh on the back of the awards the
company won at UF AWARDS LATAM 2024 in April, where company representatives
collected the “Most Innovative Broker – LATAM” and “Best Research and Education
Provider – LATAM” titles in Mexico.

Company
Spokesperson, Position at BDSwiss commented: “To be recognised with another two
awards is a source of great pride for everyone at BDSwiss, as it validates all
the hard work the team has put in to ensure clients experience the best trading
services possible.

“To be voted for once again in the research and
education category is significant. It’s reflective of our commitment to not
only providing a comprehensive educational offering but maintaining it to the
highest of standards, year after year.

“To also be applauded for our trade execution provides
us with great satisfaction, as one of our key aims is to provide clients with
an efficient trading environment that reduces latency and features superior
execution speeds.”

A leader in
trader education

BDSwiss presents a wealth of award-winning educational
resources for traders of every skill level, displaying an understanding of the
value of knowledge in the financial markets, while also enhancing the skills of
its clients in the process.

Through the BDSwiss Trading Academy, clients can enjoy
access to a variety of materials, including webinars, video tutorials, e-books,
and live training sessions covering a broad range of topics – from trading
strategies to risk management.

The academy emphasises practical learning through a
curriculum developed by trading specialists. Interactive webinars and live
sessions allow participants to engage directly with professionals, ask
questions, and apply complex trading concepts to real-world scenarios, ensuring
effective learning.

Fast and
reliable trade execution

As shown in its latest award win, BDSwiss excels in
trade execution, with 96.1% of trades executed in under two seconds and a
median execution speed of 0.03 seconds (executed between 1-31 May 2024).

With the firm specialising in the ultra-fast processing
of transactions, traders can benefit from minimal latency, enabling them to act
quickly and efficiently in what is an incredibly fast-paced and constantly
evolving marketplace.

Meanwhile, BDSwiss eliminates re-quotes and rejections,
ensuring that market orders are only declined if they fall outside pre-set
limits. This transparency reduces trading costs and enhances trust among its
clients.

Bolstered by these recent accomplishments and awards,
the company is poised for an exciting future with further successes, moving
into 2025 and beyond. It continues to showcase itself on a global stage as an
innovative brokerage with a solid understanding of how to provide the best
trading environment for its clients.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD continues to be
backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Yesterday, we
also got the US Jobless Claims figures where the data showed that
the labour market continues to rebalance via less job availability rather than
more layoffs.

Such data keeps the
interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year and
supports the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth without inflationary
pressures.

The GBP, on the other hand,
has been under pressure since the BoE policy decision where the central bank delivered
some dovish signals and kept the door open for a rate
cut in August. This week the Pound has been under pressure mainly due to some
US Dollar strength.

It looks like the price
action this week has been influenced more by month-end, quarter-end and mid year-end
flows rather than something fundamental.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD bounced once again from the support at 1.2635 today as the buyers continue to step
in around this level to position for a rally into new highs with a better risk
to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to gain more conviction and increase the bearish bets into the
1.25 handle next.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the downside momentum seems to be slowing as the lower lows get
shallower. This might be a signal for a reversal, although a break to the
downside could invalidate it.

The buyers will want to see
the price breaking above the downward trendline to gain more conviction and
increase the bullish bets into the 1.28 handle. The sellers, on the other hand,
might lean on the trendline to position for a break below the support with a
better risk to reward setup.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we’ve been ranging for the entier week as flows have been dominating the price action and the market awaits
new catalysts to push it in either direction. There’s not much else to do here other than waiting for the price to reach the key levels or provide some breakouts. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US PCE report where the market expects
the Core PCE to fall further towards the Fed’s 2% target.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• We are gaining more confidence in the forecast
• And there is more scope to disregard the smaller bumps in the disinflation process
• Being „data-driven“ currently does not mean being „flash-driven“
• Data is inherently noisy and there is a risk of overreacting to volatile news
• Should refrain from changing 2% inflation target

He’s taking heart in the better headline reading in the French inflation data earlier here. But again, it isn’t going to be one to compel them to move in July. The next key date to watch will be September and there are still quite a number of data releases to work through until then.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Climbing to the top ranks of the world’s largest
corporations is no small feat. However, the efforts invested often yield
immense returns. The company we’re discussing experienced a decade of financial
losses after its founding, finally turning a profit in 2003. Prior to that, the
dot-com bubble had plummeted its stock from $113 to $5.50 per share. Yet, these
challenges didn’t prevent Amazon from reaching a $2 trillion market cap just
six years after achieving its first trillion-dollar milestone.

Relentless enthusiasm for AI and potential
interest rate cuts this year are driving demand for
technology-related stocks. This optimism, combined with economic resilience,
propelled Amazon stock past the monumental $2 trillion milestone for the first
time in its history.

Amazon shares surged by
3.9% in a single day, enabling the e-commerce giant to cross
the threshold of the exclusive club. Amazon is now the fifth company to hit
this lofty benchmark, alongside Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet.
Notably, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia are the only three companies that have
crossed the $3 trillion mark so far.

Last week, Nvidia briefly became the most
valuable company on Wall Street by hitting $3 trillion,
thanks to its chips that power numerous AI applications. As global interest in
AI has grown, Amazon has also made significant investments in the technology.
Shares of the mega-cap technology company have got a lift of nearly 30% over
the year as the company cut costs and restructured its business to capitalize
on the AI frenzy.

Amazon Web Services (AWS), the world’s largest cloud
services provider, has seen growth rebound after a dip last year, driven by the
increasing adoption of AI technologies. Additionally, Amazon has invested in AI
startup Anthropic and robotics firm Figure to leverage the AI boom
further. Late last year, Amazon introduced a new generation of custom-designed
chips for data centers aimed at machine-learning training and generative AI
applications.

From its humble beginnings in a basement, Amazon has grown
into a formidable force in e-commerce and cloud computing. In 2023, Amazon
reported $575 billion in revenue, ranking second only to Walmart’s staggering
$639 billion.

All of the aforesaid begs the question: How much would you
have now if you had invested $1,000 in Amazon in 1999 instead of being two
years old?

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The report notes that the survey is expected to be used as a basis for discussions when the BOJ is to meet with bond market participants on 9-10 July. The sources add that the survey is asking market players about their expectations on the range and pace of the tapering process.

As they look to take this next step, it’s just prudent to get some idea of what the market is expecting. There’s nothing peculiar about this and it will just help smoothen the discussions in two weeks‘ time.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.