US January NFIB small business optimism index 89.9 vs 91.9 prior 0 (0)

It’s a slight drop compared to December with it being the 25th straight month below the 50-year average of 98. There are lingering concerns surrounding the economy and inflation but small business owners are hoping for a soft landing still.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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USDCAD Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US CPI report today 0 (0)

USD

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
    expected while dropping the tightening bias in the statement but adding a
    slight pushback against a March rate
    cut.
  • Fed Chair Powell stressed
    that they want to see more evidence of inflation falling back to target and
    that a rate cut in March is not their base case.
  • The latest US GDP beat
    expectations by a big margin.
  • The US PCE came
    mostly in line with expectations with the Core 3-month and 6-month annualised
    rates falling below the Fed’s 2% target.
  • The US NFP report
    beat expectations across the board by a big margin.
  • The ISM Manufacturing
    PMI

    surprised to the upside with the new orders index, which is considered a
    leading indicator, jumping back into expansion. Similarly, the ISM Services PMI beat
    expectations across the board with the employment sub-index erasing the prior
    drop and prices paid jumping above 60.
  • The US Consumer
    Confidence
    report came in line with expectations but
    the labour market details improved considerably.
  • The market now expects the first rate cut in May.

CAD

  • The BoC left interest rates unchanged at
    5.00%
    as expected and dropped the language about being prepared to hike if
    needed.
  • The latest Canadian CPI beat expectations across the board with
    the underlying inflation measures remaining elevated.
  • On the labour market side, the latest report beat
    expectations but we saw a contraction in full-time employment and a fall in
    wage growth.
  • The Canadian PMIs improved in
    January although they remain both in contractionary territory.
  • The market expects the BoC to start
    cutting rates in June.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD remains
stuck in a big range between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and
the resistance around
the 1.3540 level. There’s not much to do here other than waiting for a breakout
but in the meantime, traders can “play the range” by buying at support and
selling at resistance.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair recently
bounced on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire US NFP rally.
The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers, on the other hand,
will keep on stepping in around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level to
position for a rally into the 1.3540 resistance targeting a break above it.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price
has been diverging with
the MACD
falling into the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This is generally a sign of
weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it
might be a signal of an impending reversal, but the price will need to break
above the 1.35 handle to confirm it. In the meantime, we could have another
smaller range here.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the main event of the week, that is,
the US CPI report. On Thursday we will see latest US Jobless Claims figures and
the US Retail Sales. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI
data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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FMAS:24 Website Now Live – Get Ready for the Premier Event in Africa 0 (0)

Registration is now live for Finance Magnates African Summit 2024 (FMAS:24), the year’s largest professional event bridging the B2B and B2C space. The landmark event is returning for its second year this May 27-29, helping connect regional and local providers with global brokers, brands, and much more.

2024 looms as a key year for Africa, boasting an impressive resume of companies, startups, and overall potential. These factors have led to an enormous amount of hype and interest from the online trading industry, culminating in the hosting of several notable events, including FMAS:24.

Register Today for FMAS:24 to Unlock Africa’s Potential!

Following last year’s inaugural event, FMAS has quickly developed itself into a household name as one of Africa’s largest events. The marquee event returns to Sandton City, a growing financial hub in South Africa. FMAS:24 will once again be held at the prestigious Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg.

This year’s event is expected to also draw a sizable attendance, including leading talent, the biggest local providers and names, and many other noteworthy experts yet again from around the world. Attendees can expect to take a deep dive into multiple verticals represented at length, such as the online trading, payments, digital assets, and fintech space.

With only a few months to go until the doors of this event swing open, the time to reserve your seat is now and can be done by accessing the following link.

What to Expect from FMAS:24?

FMAS:24 is a can’t miss event that starts with professionalism and includes a diverse range of individuals available for doing business with. Attendees can expect to network, engage, and connect face-to-face with the following participants:

  • Forex/CFD Brokers
  • Institutional Brokers
  • Affiliates & IBs
  • Traders & Investors
  • Educators & Market Experts
  • Fintech & Payments Brands
  • Crypto & Digital Assets Businesses
  • Technology & Liquidity Providers
  • Press/Media
  • Regulators
  • Start-ups
  • Investors/VCs

In terms of content, FMAS:24 has got you covered featuring a robust slate of panel discussions, webinars, workshops, keynote speeches, and much more. These informative sessions provide the ideal forum and platform for traders and industry professionals to learn and gain valuable insights into new trading techniques, technologies, and trends in Africa and beyond.

Look for the event to attract upwards of 2,000+ attendees, 70+ exhibitors, and 50+ speakers, making FMAS:24 one of the largest events in Africa in 2024. The summit kicks off with its annual Networking Blitz Party.

This premier networking party in South Africa represents an opportunity to engage and meet top-level leaders, speakers, and the biggest brands across multiple industries. Furthermore, the Blitz Party will showcase all the luxury that Sandton as well as everything that South Africa has to offer.

Prospective attendees can also explore last year’s event highlights, which featured parties, sessions, and many other things. This year will be no different, with the event providing no shortage of entertainment and networking opportunities for all attendees.

Stay tuned over the next month for more updates on FMAS:24, including the rollout of the detailed agenda, and more!

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Introducing Amega: Making Trading Simple and Accessible to Everyone! 0 (0)

Amega is a global brokerage firm that has been
quickly rising within the world of finance.

Since
its inception, Amega’s goal has been to make trading simple and accessible to
traders of all levels, from beginner to professional. It accomplishes this by
introducing innovative technologies and providing streamlined services and
simple solutions to ensure a smooth experience from the moment of registration
to the closing of a trading position.

Regulation
– Security and transparency:

With a business
model that makes sure the client comes first, Amega has built a reputation
based on transparency and respect for regulation in order to ensure that the
rights of its investors are always protected. For the time being, Amega is
authorized, licensed, and regulated by the Mauritius Financial Services
Commission, under investment license No. GB22200548, however, it is working
towards acquiring additional licenses that will help solidify it as one of the
most trustworthy brokerage firms in the world.

Amega takes great
pride in making sure that client data, as well as their funds, are secured
behind multiple layers of protection and works only with reputable payment
solutions that are known for their safety and speed of execution.

Ensuring
equal treatment:

In an effort to
make trading more fair for all investors, Amega has abolished dated notions
such as VIP accounts, which promote better services only for clients who can
afford higher investments. Instead, Amega focuses on offering the same
excellent market conditions to all clients, regardless of the amount of their
investment

Promoting
freedom in trading strategies:

Amega
always measures its success by the success of its investors. As such, it firmly
believes that every trader should have access to the tools and strategies that
can afford them a better chance of fulfilling their potential. For this reason,
Amega encourages investors to use any trading strategy they believe can provide
them with an edge in the markets, including scalping, hedging, and even trading
robots (Expert Advisors).

By not imposing
limitations or bans on trading strategies, Amega offers a trading environment
where anyone can thrive.

Constant
Evolution:

As
a client-driven brokerage firm, Amega constantly evolves in order to add more
diversity to its extensive portfolio of tradable assets, as well as
implementing new technologies, features, and incentives to keep traders
motivated and allow them to reach beyond their limitations. Some of these
features include:

Loyalty
Cashback Program:

Amega
offers volume-based cashback for every single trade regardless of
the market direction. This initiative allows traders to better manage their
risk, compensate for spreads, and enhance their potential profitability. The
rewards earned from the Loyalty program can be withdrawn as physical cash once
the minimum withdrawal amount required is reached.

Amega
Bonus:

When
it comes to enhancing the equity of its investors, Amega offers an optional bonus of up to 150% of the deposit amount.

Contests:

Amega
periodically holds competitions in both the live markets and on demo accounts
to provide traders with the opportunity to test their skills and strategies and
the incentive to improve on them. These contests most often offer rewards in
the form of cash prizes or additional bonuses.

Global
Payment Solutions:

Amega
offers a diverse array of payment solutions and processors that cater to
clients from all over the world. These include a number of different methods
that can be used for deposits and withdrawals, including:

  • Bank cards
  • Wire Transfers
  • E-Wallets
  • QR Codes
  • Crypto-Fiat.

These
methods offer fast and secure transactions from anywhere in the world.

Diverse
Accounts for every need:

Amega
offers three different account types that offer something different and cover
the needs of even the most demanding traders.

  • Standard Account: The primary
    account type that offers excellent market conditions and benefits such as
    Cashback and the option of a deposit bonus,
  • Raw Account: Offers ECN
    conditions, including spreads starting from 0 pips. A highly requested account
    type that is generally a fan-favorite. Deposit bonus is optional.
  • Islamic Account: A swap-free
    account that is unique in its simplicity. There are no requirements for proof
    of religion or long waiting periods. With Amega, Islamic accounts can be
    created with just a few clicks. Also offers an optional deposit bonus.

Asset
Classes offered:

Amega
offers a number of tradable assets, making sure to add even more options as
demand rises.

Tradable
asset classes include:

  • Forex (Currency Pairs)
  • Stocks
  • Indices
  • Precious Metals
  • Energies
  • (Agricultural) Commodities

Outreach:

Since
the beginning, Amega has been active in many expos and trade fairs around the
world, including places like Thailand, Vietnam, and South Africa.

Amega
has also had the honor of hosting a number of successful seminars and webinars
with some of the biggest names in the industry from these countries.

The
ongoing relationship with some of the leading experts in the trading world is a
testament to the way Amega approaches its responsibility to investors and the
high quality of services it provides.

Market
updates and educational material

Amega wants
to make sure every client meets his full potential as an investor. This is why
it releases various articles and educational emails from the official “Amega
Geek” that help provide insight into the markets and serve as a base for
understanding various aspects of trading. Amega always encourages its clients
to learn about trading in their own ways and practice their skills and
strategies on a Demo account before jumping into the live markets.

Support:

Amega
has a dedicated support team that is ready to assist with any questions via
live chat, email, or call. They even offer a callback service, as well as a
comprehensive Help Center, which includes an evolving library of helpful
articles that cover everything from registration to actual trading. The
implementation of an automated assistant in the live chat ensures 24/7 support
in multiple languages.

Partnership:

Amega’s
award-winning Partnership Program offers custom conditions
tailor-made to the needs of each individual IB or affiliate, as well as one of
the most generous reward schemes in the market.

By
understanding the importance of a good IB/affiliate, Amega aims to create
long-lasting and mutually beneficial partnerships.

The
partnership program is separated into two types:

  • The Revenue Share (RS) program
    which offers rewards based on the volume generated by referrals from their
    trades

and,

  • The Cost Per Action (CPA) Program,
    which offers rewards based on the number of referrals who are onboarded.

Awards:

Amega
has had the distinct honor of receiving numerous awards that reflect its
outstanding services, as well as the constant improvement it undergoes. These
awards include:

  • Rising Star in Forex (by World
    Business Outlook)
  • Most Transparent Broker (by the
    Forex Broker Alliance)
  • Best IB program (World Finance
    Awards)
  • Best Islamic Account (World Forex
    Awards)

Conclusion:

Amega is constantly proving its commitment to
excellence through actions that speak louder than words.

By
providing a safe and transparent trading environment for investors of all
levels, constant upgrades that keep it at the top of its game, excellent market
conditions, and services that bring out the highest potential in its clients,
Amega has become a perfect example of what a broker should be.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Dow Jones Technical Analysis 0 (0)

Last
Friday, the Dow Jones diverged with the other major indices as the market
finished the day negative. Overall, the path of least resistance remains to the
upside given the pickup in economic data with even the leading indicators
turning around. There are still risks on the inflation front though, but the
market looks confident that even if we see some short-term reacceleration, the
Fed will just keep rates steady and if the economy is able to support them,
then it might be even better. Nonetheless, a hot CPI report could provide a
pullback, so that would be something to watch out for.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the
daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones is now at a key trendline, and
this is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position
for a pullback into the 37777 support.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price has been breaking resistances and retesting them before going up in a
perfect textbook manner. We can also notice that the price is now retesting one
of those resistances now
turned support
where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. This
is where we will likely find the buyers bidding up the price while the sellers
will want to wait for a break to the downside to confirm the pullback into the
37777 support.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the Dow Jones consolidating between the
38550 support and the 38800 resistance. This looks like a market primed for a
big move as soon as we get a breakout on either side.

Upcoming Events

This week is relatively light on the data front with the
US CPI report being the main highlight. We start tomorrow with the release of
the US CPI where the market will want to see if there are indeed signs of a
reacceleration or not. On Thursday, we will get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PPI and the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

The bond market stays in focus in trading this week 0 (0)

With the focus being on big US data this week, Treasuries will continue to stay under the spotlight once again. The rebound in 10-year yields since the non-farm payrolls is now turning the attention back to the January ceiling near 4.20%. For today, 10-year yields are down slightly by 1 bps to 4.175% but all eyes are on the US CPI data tomorrow.

That could be what bond sellers are looking for in raising the bar above the highlighted level of 4.20%. If so, that will have spillover impact to broader markets surely on the week.

Just keep in mind that the inflation numbers tomorrow isn’t the only big US data on the agenda this week. There will still be retail sales on Thursday, followed by producer prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday as well.

If yields are to turn lower and back away from the 4.20% mark towards 4% and below again, that should drag the dollar down along with it. As for risk trades, the S&P 500 is hoping for that to solidify a clear break above 5,000 from last week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Market Outlook for the Week of 12th – 16th February 0 (0)

The upcoming week will be packed with economic events, but it will start with bank holidays in Japan and China due to the National Foundation Day and the Spring Festival, respectively.

On Tuesday, New Zealand will release its inflation expectations quarter-on-quarter (q/q) data. Last month, two-year ahead inflation expectations declined to 2.76%. While this remains above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) 2% target, short-term expectations have seen a more pronounced drop, but long-term expectations (5 years ahead) have been much stickier. The continued strength in domestic inflation remains a concern for the RBNZ so the bank will closely monitor this survey to assess if the downward trend continues.

The focal point of the week will be the U.S. inflation data. Expectations suggest a 0.3% increase in core CPI month-on-month (m/m), compared to the previous 0.3%; a 0.2% rise in CPI m/m, down from the prior 0.3%; and a projected drop in CPI year-on-year (y/y) to 2.9% from 3.4%. While inflation in the U.S. appears to be moving in the desired direction overall and it will likely reach the Fed’s target of 2% eventually, concerns remain over the high levels of core inflation which ended the year at 3.9% from 5.7% at the start.

Although headline inflation is seeing a slowdown, attributable in part to declining gasoline prices and only moderated price increases for groceries, core inflation — which excludes food and energy prices — remains uncomfortably high for the Fed. The market has pushed back its expectations for rate cuts from March to May and this can shift even further depending on future data, for example to June.

The U.K. inflation data expected Wednesday will provide further insights into future monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England (BoE). At the previous meeting, the Bank surprised with a more hawkish stance, noting that while there are indications of decreasing inflation, it remains way above target and more time is needed to see progress. Some analysts speculate that the tightening cycle has ended, but rate cuts won’t happen very soon. The current market expectation is for rate cuts to start in August.

Projections for this week’s data are for headline inflation to increase to 4.2% from 4.0% y/y while core inflation is expected to rise to 5.2% from 5.1%. Although expectations are for the inflation downtrend to resume in the future, the BoE is currently fighting with persistent inflationary pressures.

On Thursday, Australia will get the employment change and unemployment rate data. At the last meeting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates unchanged and stressed that: „The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks, and a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out.“

Inflation levels remain concerning, but many analysts argue that the tightening cycle ended. However, rate cuts are off the table for the near future.

The latest data suggests that the labor market in Australia is cooling down with supply and demand being more balanced. Analysts point out that the data for November and December was influenced by seasonal patterns, but going forward the labor market should see some softening. Westpac analysts expect an employment change of +15K for January, which would be a below-trend pace of growth.

The unemployment rate is likely to rise from 3.9% to 4.0%. Westpac argues that January is the most seasonal time of the year for the labor market and since the reopening from COVID-19 there were two dynamics that played an important role during this time in previous years: One is the fact that individuals found it easier to change jobs leading in an increase in „marginally attached workers“ after the holidays who were previously unemployed; and the second is the recovery of tourism which led to more workers taking time off over the holidays.

„January’s data should hence be interpreted carefully, given the risk that one–off dynamics may cause large swings in hours worked or unemployment,“ the Westpac analysts said.

Later on Thursday, we expect the U.S. retail sales data m/m. Last month, retail sales figures printed above expectations, but for this week’s release analysts anticipate a drop in core retail sales from 0.4% to 0.1% and a drop in retail sales from 0.6% to -0.2%.

Preliminary credit card spending data suggests a rise in January spending levels, but analysts from Wells Fargo expect a spending moderation as the year progresses due to softening in the labor market. „The unique factors of excess liquidity and easy access to cheap credit are tales of the past in the story of consumption,“ they said.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

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Dollar keeps steadier so far on the day 0 (0)

Today is pretty much a placeholder as traders are all waiting on the US CPI data tomorrow. That is a good enough reason for price action to trend more sideways to start the week. And that is precisely what we’re getting so far today. The dollar is keeping steadier but the changes on the day are leaving a lot to be desired.

EUR/USD is still cornered by key technical levels just under 1.0800 as outlined here. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is holding just above 149.00 but not really finding much conviction to race towards 150.00 yet. Then, GBP/USD is trading back up to its recent consolidation range of 1.2600 to 1.2800 and awaiting its next move.

As for the commodity currencies, USD/CAD saw a test of its January highs rejected last week and is now holding just under its 200-day moving average of 1.3475. And AUD/USD is trading in and around the 0.6500 mark with topside limited by its own 100-day moving average at 0.6535 for now.

In other markets, US futures are flattish and not offering much help on the day. As for Treasuries, 10-year yields are down just 1 bps to 4.177% and still holding below the key technical line near 4.20%.

There’s some poking and prodding overall, so it is now up to the US CPI data to deliver the next set of hints for markets.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Weekly Market Outlook (12-16 February) 0 (0)

UPCOMING EVENTS:

  • Tuesday:
    Japan
    PPI, UK Labour Market report, Switzerland CPI, German ZEW, US NFIB Small
    Business Optimism Index, US CPI.
  • Wednesday:
    UK CPI,
    Eurozone Industrial Production.
  • Thursday:
    Japan
    GDP, Australia Labour Market report, UK GDP, UK Industrial Production,
    Switzerland PPI, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, US Industrial
    Production, US NAHB Housing Market Index, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI,
    PBoC MLF.
  • Friday:
    UK
    Retail Sales, Switzerland Industrial Production, US PPI, US Housing Starts
    and Building Permits, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Tuesday

The UK Unemployment Rate is expected to
tick higher to 4.0% vs. 3.9% prior.
The markets are likely to focus on wage growth with the Average Earnings
ex-Bonus seen at 6.0% vs. 6.6% prior, while the Average Earnings including
Bonus expected at 5.7% vs. 6.0% prior. The data will influence the market’s
pricing with a miss bringing rate cuts forward.

The Switzerland CPI Y/Y is expected at
1.6% vs. 1.7% prior. The inflation rate has been is the SNB’s 0-2% target
range since last summer and although the central bank expects a short term
increase, Chairman
Jordan said
that their base case
scenario is that inflation should average below 2% this year.

The US CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.0% vs.
3.4% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior. The Core CPI
Y/Y is expected at 3.8% vs. 3.9% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.3%
vs. 0.3% prior. This is going to be the most important report for the week and,
as it’s been the case for the prior releases, it will influence the market’s
pricing with a miss bringing rate cuts forward and a beat pushing them backword.

Wednesday

The UK CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.2% vs.
4.0% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at -0.3% vs. 0.4% prior. The Core CPI
Y/Y is expected at 5.2% vs. 5.1% prior. The last
report
surprised to the upside which
prompted a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. The BoE is
particularly focused on services inflation, so that would be the most important
metric to watch for. Again, a downside surprise should bring rate cuts
forward, while another upward surprise is likely to push them backword.

Thursday

The Australian Unemployment Rate is
expected to tick higher to 4.0% vs. 3.9% prior with 30K jobs added in January
vs. -65.1K in December. The last
report
surprised to the downside with a
hefty contraction in full-time employment. Citing RBA’s Governor Bullock, the
central bank is “very, very focused” on employment but unless we get some
notable surprise, it’s unlikely to change much for the RBA.

The US Retail Sales M/M are expected at
-0.1% vs. 0.6% prior, while the ex-Autos M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.4%
prior. The last
report
surprised to the upside with the
Control Group coming in at a strong 0.8% vs. a previous positively revised 0.5%
reading. US Retail Sales have been strong for several months, but they are
expected to be weaker in January due to negative weather effects.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the
state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle
lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm around cycle highs. This week the
consensus sees Initial Claims at 220K vs. 218K prior,
while Continuing Claims are seen at 1878K vs. 1871K prior.

The PBoC is expected to keep the MLF rate
unchanged at 2.50%. The central bank surprised
recently by cutting the RRR by 50bps vs. 25 bps expected and sparked a rally in
the stock market (although most of the gains were
erased in the following weeks). The PBoC will have an opportunity to surprise
the markets again with a cut and this time trigger a more sustained and
positive reaction.

Friday

The US PPI Y/Y is expected at 0.7% vs.
1.0% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.1% vs. -0.1% prior. The Core PPI
Y/Y is expected at 1.6% vs. 1.8% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.1%
vs. 0.0% prior. This report is unlikely to be that much market moving given
that the focus will be on the US CPI on Tuesday.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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The entire American economic philosophy can be distilled into a three-letter word 0 (0)

Sunday features the quintessential American cultural event — the Super Bowl.

The game itself and its importance in American culture hint at what makes America what it is, and why US stock markets are at record highs as the rest of the world falls further behind.

The fairy-tale version of United States excellence leans on high-minded ideas — freedom, democracy, capitalism, a rules-based economic order, a magical scroll from the Founding Fathers.

That’s all bullshit.

Modern America stands for one thing and operates on one single principle: Win.

This Sunday is Super Bowl 58 (or LVIII in a nod to Rome). I’d argue that all the past 58 years of American economic dominance comes down to a creeping, evolving and now dominant philosophy built on winning as the singular guiding light in nearly all aspects of life.

What makes America unique in the empires of history is the slight tweak in philosophy. Past empires aimed to dominate and control; American just wants to win. Now sometimes that requires tapping into the $886 billion defense budget for some old fashioned dominance and control but the wisdom of America is that it realizes this is an expensive game that has been the downfall of many empires.

To use a schoolyard analogy, America doesn’t want to beat everyone else so badly that they quit, start their own game, or collectively turn against the US. America wants to keep everyone playing the game but always making sure it has a comfortable lead. There has to be an illusion of a reasonably fair playing field or it all falls apart.

Perhaps the real genius of the US has been in convincing the world that it is a fair game. Or that all of those old-fashioned high-minded ideas are what guides American government and business when it’s one simple thing: Win at all costs.

Seeing as football is on the agenda this weekend, here’s a quiz: What do the greatest football coach of all time and this year’s college football national champions have in common?

The answer: They cheated.

Both were caught red-handed cheating to win. As were the Houston Astros and, just Friday the New York Mets (Yes those are the same Mets owned by hedge fund billionaire Stevie Cohen who was caught insider trading).

What else do all these examples have in common? They effectively got away with it.

In a culture of winning, all that matters at the end of the day is wins. If you ask them, they’d probably tell you they only cheated more effectively than the others.

Now in sports it’s disgraceful, I don’t want my kids looking up to cheaters, but business is business. It’s ruthless.

The two quintessential businessmen of the last 40 years — Bill Gates and Steve Jobs — both admittedly stole their best early ideas from Xerox PARC.

Jobs first debuted the graphical interface and then Gates quickly copied it, leading to this famous exchange.

„You’re ripping us off!“, Steve shouted, raising his voice even higher. „I trusted you, and now you’re stealing from us!“

But Bill Gates just stood there coolly, looking Steve directly in the eye, before starting to speak in his squeaky voice.

„Well, Steve, I think there’s more than one way of looking at it. I think it’s more like we both had this rich neighbor named Xerox and I broke into his house to steal the TV set and found out that you had already stolen it.“

Meanwhile, the current world’s richest man — Elon Musk — has a long history of bending the law. It’s not particularly notable that top businessmen look for an edge anywhere, what’s notable is how the US tolerates it so long as you’re a winner.

Cheating is ok, so long as you win; so long as you’re sending up spaceships, redefining the automobile industry, or popularizing computers. And who could argue against it? The benefits of what those men have done for civilization far outweigh whatever ethical, and even legal, transgressions that might have been involved.

By the same token, the US winning doesn’t mean everyone else loses; just the opposite. A richer planet is a place where American companies have more consumers to sell to. The beauty of the system is that it grows the global economic pie and ultimately delivers incredible innovations globally. Hardly a person alive hasn’t benefited greatly from the American system, it’s a marvel.

Still, the American-style capitalism part of that bargain though only works perfectly fine on one condition: American companies win. Just like back in the school-yard, America will change the rules of the game until it wins. It will cheat on treaties, subsidies, litigate, persecute, lie and cheat to keep its companies on top, or at least in the game.

I have no doubt that a large part of the American spying apparatus is dedicated to industrial espionage and passing those secrets to US companies (and protecting those companies from other countries trying to do the same) — the ROI on those operations is undoubtedly spectacular for taxpayers. It’s hardly a conspiracy, as it’s precisely what Edward Snowden revealed.

Huawei may or may not have been spying on you but there is compelling evidence that the dramatic steps to get them out of the western world was an orchestrated campaign more about economic security than military security.

The same treatment is coming for TikTok and BYD. Foreign companies Nokia, Nortel, Siemens, Blackberry and Alstrom were all well-documented victims of industrial espionage, some by the US, some by others, some unknown. Yet I find it awfully coincidental that American companies came out ahead. But state-sponsored winning is still winning.

That’s not to say that China isn’t stealing everything it can get its hands on. It is. They understand that game.

But American is three steps ahead. They see how the game is also changing before anyone even realizes it’s being played. The US isn’t trying to limit Chinese access to Nvidia chips only because China will use them in military hardware. It’s trying to limit access to invention. The era of people investing things is dead. Every breakthough in the future will come from AI and that means that whoever has the best chips owns the future.

I worry about the side effects of a win at all costs culture.

The clannish dedication to football-style winning has devolved into politics and — worse yet — voting. People increasingly support their team no matter what.

I’d argue that the entire political story of this century is explained by Republicans briefly believing their own free-market ethos for a few weeks in 2008. That resulted in the worst American economic calamity in generations and led to the rise of the Tea Party, which started as a fiscal protest group then morphed into a protectionist populism that is undermining the illusion of a level playing-field.

Donald Trump is deeply unpopular in much of the world, yet he won the Presidency in the United States and is on track to do it again. He’s undoubtedly a conman and huckster yet he’s rich and famous. It’s that kind of winning that resonates in America.

But the bigger investing lesson of America’s winning philosophy is that it’s not because of politicians, it’s in spite of them. What industry has come to dominate markets and returns over the past 20 years? Technology — the least-regulated part of the American economy and the best one. It’s the one where win-at-all-costs flourishes best.

So all this to say one thing: if you want to play the game, you need to understand how the game works. Many parts of the world think the name of the game is collective welfare or social cohesion or harmony with nature (and maybe in the big picture it is). But while Europe is regulating, the US is innovating — and winning.

If you’re here, the game you’re in is investing. So when you’re considering where in the world to invest, forget comparing national P/E ratios. What you want to invest in is winners. In business that means America. That’s why I’ll never write a post about the downfall of the dollar or US capital markets.

Enjoy the game.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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