• There are clear signs that rate hikes are having an impact
• But perhaps it may be that the effect is weaker than in the past or still delayed
• Sees UK inflation reaching target in 2 years‘ time

The BOE is in a rather unenviable spot right now. They are starting to move to the sidelines but are worried that they may not have done enough in the inflation fight. Adding to that is a worsening economy amid the rise in recession risks and further tightening could risk a hard landing going into next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday we got another strong US jobs report as
the Job Openings data
beat expectations by a big margin. Coupled with the last week’s beat in Jobless Claims and this
week ISM Manufacturing PMI, the
market is starting to lose faith in a quick return to lower interest rates and
might even fear higher rates. Overall, the data is still supporting the soft
landing narrative but the market shouldn’t be priced for neither higher rates
nor a hard landing.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite remains under pressure and the fall back below the key support is a bad
omen for the buyers. The buyers should keep on defending this level and target
a rally into the downward trendline, but if
the price breaks the low, the sellers are likely to pile in even more
aggressively and take the price into the next support around the 12274 level.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite bounced on the key support and pulled back into the red 21 moving average and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
where it found strong sellers waiting for another leg lower. The buyers will
need the price to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level to turn
around the trend and target new highs.

Nasdaq Composite
Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see the low
around the 12965 which is going to be the last line of defence for the buyers
and might turn into a double bottom pattern.
This is where we are likely to see the buyers stepping in with a defined risk
below the low to position for a rally into the highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the low to pile in even more
aggressively and extend the drop into the 12274 support.

Upcoming
Events

Today on the agenda we have the ADP report and the
ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we will see the latest Jobless Claims data, which
continues to show a solid labour market. Finally on Friday, it will be the time
for the NFP report which is the only one the Fed will see before its next rate
decision.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Economic activity likely to remain subdued in the coming months
• Labour market remains resilient
• Underlying price pressures remain strong

Just some token remarks there by de Guindos. Nothing that we don’t already know from the ECB previously.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Dollar down slightly as the bond selling comes off the boil for now
• The bond rout cools off a little, for now at least
• ECB’s Centeno: Inflation is falling faster than when it was rising
• Eurozone August retail sales -1.2% vs -0.3% m/m expected
• Eurozone August PPI +0.6% vs +0.6% m/m expected
• Eurozone September final services PMI 48.7 vs 48.4 prelim
• UK September final services PMI 49.3 vs 47.2 prelim
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 29 September -6.0% vs -1.3% prior
• Saudi Arabia reaffirms will continue voluntary oil output cuts until end of December

Markets:

• GBP leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 1.5 bps to 4.787%
• Gold up 0.1% to $1,824.08
• WTI crude down 2.0% to $87.47
• Bitcoin up 0.7% to $27,580

As we got into European morning trade, yields were running hot once again and we saw 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.88%. That kept the dollar more bid while equities were smashed lower, with S&P 500 futures marked down by 0.6%.

But as the session trudged along, yields reversed lower in a welcome relief for broader markets after yesterday’s moves.

The greenback lost ground and is sitting lower on the day while S&P 500 futures turned things around to be up 0.1% currently, as 10-year Treasury yields fall down to 4.78%.

It’s a bit part relief for the most part and perhaps a tentative one as we still have US trading to navigate through.

EUR/USD moved up from 1.0460 to 1.0500 while AUD/USD recovered some poise from 0.6290 to 0.6320-30 currently. Meanwhile, despite Tokyo intervention, USD/JPY is largely steady at around 148.95 but was hovering closer to 149.10-20 levels earlier in the day.

With US ADP employment data coming up, the focus stays on the bond market (and how that impacts broader sentiment) still ahead of the Friday jobs report.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -1.3%
• Market index 178.2 vs 189.6 prior
• Purchase index 136.6 vs 144.8 prior
• Refinance index 384.6 vs 411.7 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.53% vs 7.41% prior

Mortgage activity plunged further in the past week as the average rate of the most popular US home loan rises another 12 bps to 7.53% – its highest since November 2000.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The breakout of the
triangle is a signal that the global economy might be headed for a downturn as
the central banks keep monetary conditions tight. The fast rise in energy
prices might have also accelerated such an outcome as consumption should have
suffered from it. We have also other markets heading towards a negative outcome
as global yields continue to soar, the US Dollar appreciates every day and
the stock markets are experiencing losses.

Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the
daily chart, we can see that after the breakout of the symmetrical triangle, Copper
pulled back to retest the broken trendline, where
we had also the red 21 moving average for confluence, and
sold off again targeting the 3.54 support. We
might see a bounce around the support level as the buyers are likely to step in
with a defined risk below the level to target a rally into the upper trendline
of the triangle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking through the support to increase the bearish momentum and start eyeing
the cycle lows.

Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we even had
another downward trendline around the bottom trendline of the triangle that
added an extra layer of confluence. That’s where the sellers piled in with a
define risk above the trendline to target the 3.54 support. Right now, the
price is in free fall, and we might not see much support until the 3.54 level,
so the buyers are likely to be careful not to catch such a falling knife.

Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is starting to diverge with
the MACD right
as it trades into the key support level. This is generally a sign of weakening
momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we might see
the buyers stepping in with conviction around the support level to target the
3.64 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, are likely to pile in around these
levels to position for a break below the support. If the price breaks above the
3.64 resistance as well, then the buyers should have free way until the major
trendline around the 3.75 level.

Upcoming Events

Today on the agenda we have the ADP report and the
ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we will see the latest Jobless Claims data, which
continues to show a solid labour market. Finally on Friday, it will be the time
for the NFP report which is the only one the Fed will see before its next rate
decision. Copper is likely to respond negatively to bad data and positively in
case of good figures.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The Nasdaq Composite seems to be bottoming out as
the US data continues to support the soft landing narrative with Jobless Claims last
week beating once again expectations and the ISM Manufacturing PMI
yesterday showing signs of rebounding. The fears of a hawkish Fed might be put
aside if the economy remains resilient and the labour market doesn’t
deteriorate too much.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite rallied back above the key resistance around
the 13174 level. The last week’s breakout is starting to look like a fakeout,
which is a reversal pattern, and we might see a rally into the black trendline around
the 13800 level. A break back below the 13174 level would be ominous for the
buyers and we should see the sellers pile in aggressively to position for a
drop into the 12274 support.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is
struggling at a strong resistance defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. This is
where the sellers are stepping in with a defined risk above the Fibonacci level
to target another break below the 13174 support. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and target the black
trendline.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we had
a divergence with
the MACD right
after the breakout. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often
followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we might be in front of a
reversal as the price action has also formed what looks like an inverted head and shoulders
pattern. The neckline is right around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level so
a break above it should trigger a rally into the highs. The sellers will need
the price to sell off from here to invalidate the bullish setup and position
for new lows.

Upcoming
Events

Today, we will have the US Job Openings data which
led to a strong rally the last time as the big miss made Treasury yields to
fall due to less labour market tightness and less hawkish Fed expectations. Tomorrow,
it will be the time for the ADP report and the ISM Services PMI. On Thursday,
we will see the Jobless Claims data, which continues to show a solid labour
market. Finally on Friday, it will be the time for the NFP report which is the
only one the Fed will see before its next rate decision.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• The nerves are kicking in again in the equities space
• USD/JPY within touching distance of 150 as higher yields continue to pave the way
• AUD/USD stays under pressure as RBA stays on the sidelines
• Recent pace of yen fall makes intervention less likely – former top currency diplomat
• ECB’s Lane: Progress to 2% inflation won’t be as quick as to 4%
• ECB’s Lane: The key is to maintain rates at this level for as long as needed
• ECB’s Simkus: Inflation is on its way down
• Switzerland September CPI +1.7% vs +1.8% y/y expected

Markets:

• USD leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 4.6 bps to 4.730%
• Gold down 0.2% to $1,824.38
• WTI crude down 0.5% to $88.38
• Bitcoin down 1.1% to $27,541

There wasn’t much in terms of headlines during the session as the focus stays on the bond market. Treasury yields are running higher once again and that is leading to a further bid in the US dollar, with USD/JPY sitting within a whisker of touching the 150 mark.

The greenback held firmer throughout with EUR/USD hovering near its lowest since December last year at 1.0460-70 levels. The antipodeans are the laggards, with AUD/USD down 1.0% to touch 0.6300 after the RBA left the cash rate unchanged in today’s policy decision.

A turn lower in the risk mood, similar to yesterday, is not helping as equities hit the skids after a decent start to the session. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% at one point but are seen down over 0.3% on the day at the lows. European indices are also back in the red as the jitters are resurfacing amid further selling in the bond market as well.

It’s back to the familiar theme for broader markets, continuing the trend that we have been seeing since mid-September.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

10-year yields in the US are up over 4 bps to 4.726% currently and that is continuing to keep the dollar more bid across the board. USD/JPY has been relatively cautious in pushing the invisible boundary set out by Tokyo at the 150 mark but it almost seems inevitable that we will breach past the figure level at this point.

Whether or not that will trigger intervention by Japan remains to be seen but the pressure is continuing as Treasury yields are shooting for the stars as seen in the chart above.

For today, there are large option expiries at the figure level for USD/JPY as well but as mentioned here, it’s more of a psychological battle more than anything else for the pair right now.

As we look towards US trading, the pair is trading at 149.94 and that is just a hop, skip, and a beat away from running off above 150.00 once buyers touch the key threshold.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After a bright start to European trading (similar to yesterday), equities are feeling a bit jittery once more as we look towards US trading later. US futures have turned lower in the last one hour and European indices are back in the red after having pared opening losses today.

It is all about higher Treasury yields once again and 10-year yields are now up 4 bps to 4.724% on the day. That is weighing on equities sentiment while also keeping the dollar underpinned with USD/JPY hovering just under the 150.00 mark at 149.93 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.